Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

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