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Federal Election 2016

Aug 10, 2014

Seat of the week: Jagajaga

Covering the eastern reaches of Melbourne, the electorate of Jagajaga has provided a reasonably secure electoral base for Jenny Macklin's parliamentary career since 1996.

Jenny Macklin’s electorate of Jagajaga was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, and covers suburbs in north-eastern Melbourne from Heidelberg and Ivanhoe out to North Warrandyte in the east. Its present area was mostly in the electorate of Bourke from federation until 1926, which accounted for northern Melbourne including Brunswick and Reservoir; Flinders and Indi from 1922 to 1937, which respectively covered its western suburban and eastern interior regions; Deakin from its recreation in 1937 until 1955, at which time Ivanhoe was absorbed by Batman; and Diamond Valley in its eastern parts from 1969 to 1984. When created in 1984, Jagajaga extended north to Bundoora and had the Yarra River as its eastern boundary, with Eltham and its surrounds accommodated by Casey and Menzies. Its present configuration was largely adopted at the redistribution which took effect at the 1996 election.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party booth majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Jagajaga was in part the successor to abolished Diamond Valley, although that seat’s extension into rural areas further to the north made it a marginal seat that went with the government of the day at each election during an existence that ran from 1969 to 1984. Diamond Valley was won narrowly for Labor in 1983 by Peter Staples at the expense of Liberal incumbent Neil Brown, who would return to parliament in 1984 as member for Menzies and later became deputy Liberal leader (and was more recently a contentious appointment to the panel that appoints ABC board directors). Staples secured the considerably more accommodating electoral territory of Jagajaga in 1984, which had a notional Labor margin of 8.4%, and retained the seat until his retirement in 1996, in which time his closest shave was a 2.6% winning margin amid the Victorian anti-Labor backlash of 1990.

Staples was succeeded by Jenny Macklin, a former researcher and state ministerial staffer and member of the Socialist Left. Macklin retained the seat by 2.7% on her electoral debut and secured slightly stronger margins over the the next three elections. After the 2001 election she rose to the position of deputy leader, a position she maintained until Kim Beazley was deposed by Kevin Rudd in December 2006, at which point she made way for Julia Gillard. Macklin also exchanged her education portfolio for family and community services and indigenous affairs, which retained without interruption throughout the six-year saga of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government. The only change to her workload in government was an exchange of housing for disability reform in December 2011. This continuity has been maintained in opposition, albeit that she relinquished indigenous affairs and families and community services was rebadged as families and payments. In the meantime, Macklin secured her hold on Jagajaga with strong successive swings in 2007 and 2010, respectively pushing her margin out to 9.0% and 11.5%, before a forceful 8.1% swing to the Liberals in 2013 pared it back to 3.1%.

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1057 comments

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Sustainable future
Guest

Newspoll is not what I expected. I guess most voters don’t watch Sky or the Project, probably don’t know who brandis or abetz are, and all they saw of Abbott all week was the MH17 memorial.

teh_drewski
Guest

The unemployment data is super noisy at the moment anyway, the trend didn’t really move. Of course, a couple more months of 6.4% and the trend will lift.

Until Parliament sits again and Labor actually gets some clear air, the free run the Government gets on the basis of being the only ones doing anything will keep the numbers close. Long game.

swamprat
Guest

davidwh

[If that Newspoll is correct the LNP will cream Labor if they ever manage to perform at or above average.]

Yes, well Labor is the LNPs secret weapon.

Maybe not so secret.

Roger Miller
Guest

davidwh thinks if the LNP were doing better they would be doing better.

guytaur
Guest

Goodnight.

Rossmore
Guest

Yes very surprised at that Newspoll. It was a shocking week for the Coalition. In hindsight and on reflection, they werent hippocket issues, apart from the unemployment figures which were drowned out by the other stuff ups

Darn
Guest

[davidwh
Posted Monday, August 11, 2014 at 10:50 pm | PERMALINK
If that Newspoll is correct the LNP will cream Labor if they ever manage to perform at or above average.
]

Getting a bit ahead of yourself there I think David. There are plenty of things bubbling away which can bring this government undone. Abbott will run out of unicorns sooner or later.

guytaur
Guest

zoid

You got that right. Just compare the calls about Labor before ICAC to that of the Liberals.

bemused
Guest

I am a little disappointed with Newspoll but not entirely surprised.

Polls lag events and the effect of last week will take a while to wash through.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I was hoping it would be a continuation of worse figures for the LNP, but I will just have to settle for bad figures for them.

zoidlord
Guest

It what’s happen when you have Media scrum on your side davidwh.

Media bias.

davidwh
Guest

My God Zoidlord they were a mess last week.

CTar1
Guest

matt

[ The Liberals and their cheer squad will see this as the green light to pump up the volume even higher on the national security/jihadist nonsense!]

Don’t panic. Under your bed is one dead red. Behind him is a genuine AK-47 (and two plumbers taped quick change magazines) and a RPG.

Get these and you’ll be fine.

Darn
Guest

About what I expected with all this international crap going on. Plenty for Abbott to hide behind.

zoidlord
Guest

Ghost Confirms davidwh.

imacca
Guest

[ Seems all they have to do is talk about anything but the budget and up they go in the polls! ]

And Jo Hockey luvs you very much. 🙂

davidwh
Guest

If that Newspoll is correct the LNP will cream Labor if they ever manage to perform at or above average.

CTar1
Guest

[Preferred PM Abbott 41 (+3)]

It’s a real pleasure to be a voting citizen of such a kinky country.

The ‘aliens’ just love us.

zoidlord
Guest

Strange that the Australian people willing to sell their privacy to con artists, and their money to overseas investors.

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