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Victorian Politics

Aug 17, 2014

Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria

A Galaxy poll finds Victorian Labor still has its nose in front ahead of a state election just over three months away.

Stephen Murray relates on Twitter that a Galaxy poll of Victorian state voting intention in tomorrow’s Herald-Sun has Labor leading 52-48 with a little more than three months to go until the election, from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 40% for the Coalition, 12% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United. Denis Napthine maintains a 41-33 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier, and is ahead 39-38 on the question of who would best protect Victorian jobs.

Another question finds respondent considerably more keen on Labor’s policy of prioritising fixing level crossings when placed head-to-head with the government’s East West Link project, the respective results being 62% and 28%. Oddly enough, the poll finds a more positive result on the question of whether Victoria is heading in the right direction than was derived from the last poll in February, with “right direction” up eight to 51% and “wrong direction” down nine to 37%.

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23 comments

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Tom the first and best
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Tom the first and best
20 If the East-West Link contracts are signed and the ALP goes into the election without promising to cancel the East-West Link, then the Greens will mercilessly use that fact to attack the ALP and it would likely swing the campaign in favour of the Greens in Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick (Northcote has a higher margin). It may help in Prahran as well. It only takes a swing of a few percent, from the ALP to the Greens, in Prahran to put the ALP in 3rd and have the Greens battling it out with the Liberals for 1st. I think… Read more »
Corio
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A Freudian slip by Denis Napthine or is he a closet supporter of better transport?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4pR0knA4Xg

Bugler
Guest

[Makes me a bit jealous really, we don’t quite get the same treatment out east.]

It doesn’t help that we only have one sitting Lower House MP out this way, Merlino (deputy Labor leader) in Monbulk, who can only really do so much, there being so many seats, his responsibilities as deputy and the depths of conservatism in the east outside the Hills and isolated pockets like Healesville and Warburton.

Bugler
Guest
I think it’s worth pointing out that despite the seat of Melbourne being the tightest in terms of ALP vs Green, the incumbent, Labor’s Jennifer Kanis, will probably/possibly benefit from the sophomore effect. I also think Bronwyn Pyke was carrying a bit of baggage from her ministerial titles into the 2010 election which probably didn’t help her (whether that registered in her own seat rather than elsewhere I guess could be debated). The next closest is Brunswick which requires about 4% for the Greens to win, and I don’t think Jane Garrett will struggle to hold it, but if any… Read more »
badseed
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I think the Greens will possibly win 1, but even that’s not a lock. But a lot of people around the Federal seat of Melbourne do really think a lot of Adam Bandt – so I’d expect some of that ‘trust’ to translate to their State candidates. But just not to the extent of winning all 4 seats targeted. However it will certainly be interesting to see just how many resources the ALP devote to the inner city seats. I expect the policy rhetoric and advertising will be targeting the outer suburbs and regional centres, with a few carrots for… Read more »
Leroy Lynch
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Full details of the Galaxy poll
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/14-15-august/

[14-15 August

LABOR AHEAD WITH 100 DAYS TO GO IN VICTORIA

With around 100 days to election day the Labor Party has opened up a lead over the Coalition. However, while the Labor Party may enjoy an election winning lead, Denis Napthine is still considered a better option for Premier than Daniel Andrews.]

max
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Tom@12-Yes – true: actually Antony’s post election pendulum has the ALP notionally on 40 seats post-redistribution – so that’s where the 9 came from. However some of those “were Labor”/”now notional Coalition” seats are likely to stay Labor. As a Greens supporter I hope the optimistic scenario of gains in the Legislative Assembly plays out; even one would be a good result. This poll has the Greens (at 12%) as marginally up on their 2010 result of 11.2% so we could go close….without wishing to reignite the tedious conversation about the Greens’ future election prospects that seems to do the… Read more »
lefty e
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Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

12

The ALP currently hold 43 seats, so 49 seats is a gain of 6 seats.

Antony greens pendulum does not calculate which party is likely to win a ALP-Green marginal or ever which non-Coalition party will win a 3-way marginal. The Greens have a reasonable possibility of victory in 4 seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Prahran). That means the ALP have to win the 2PP (which they win in seats the Greens win, but loose the 2CP) in 49 seats in order to get enough seats to have a majority if the Greens win all 4 seats.

Leroy Lynch
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http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/herald-sungalaxy-poll-shows-alp-would-defeat-the-coalition-at-the-next-election-just-100-days-away/story-fnii5sms-1227027513602 [Herald Sun/Galaxy poll shows ALP would defeat the Coalition at the next election, just 100 days away August 18, 2014 12:57AM James Campbell State politics editor Herald Sun PREMIER Denis Napthine faces a massive challenge to overcome a four-point gap in the polls and win a second term in office. With this week marking 100 days to the state election, a Herald Sun/Galaxy opinion poll has revealed Labor’s Daniel Andrews is on track to be Victoria’s next premier with the ALP holding a 52-48 per cent lead over the Napthine Government. The poll result, which Liberal and Labor strategists… Read more »
centaur009
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I was polled for this poll, last Thursday evening at about 7pm. They also asked whether Abbott’s gov had made it more likely less likely or no affect on voting for naphthalene.
Napthaline come’s across as a fumbling bumbling uncle, and Andrews has big ears, the reasonably smart kid at school but certainly not dux or school captain- easily forgotten.
Frankston is unknown- wouldn’t be suprised if lib hold. i would expect Carrum and maybe mordialloc to be regained first

max
Guest

Based on Antony Green’s post election pendulum, this would translate to a comfortable ALP victory – a gain of around 9 seats for 49 to 39 in the Lower House- with the Greens most likely holding the BOP in the Legislative Council.

Sustainable future
Guest
‘interesting’ really? I see it as battle of the blands – the winner of the Napthine and Andrews debate(s) will be the one with most supports in the audience who are still awake. Labor should romp this home, but at this stage andrews is not cutting through as a dynamic leader. I like him, but he needs some coaching on projecting leadership. Napthine has had effective coaching and compared to most libs comes across as an intelligent, thoughtful and small l lib on most issues. He’s also not from the lawyer/party hack background that most seem to be now. I… Read more »
badseed
Guest

Certainly shaping up to be close.

Wonder if we’ll start seeing some individual seat polls.

teh_drewski
Guest

I actually thought this one might be back toward about 50/50 after Labor’s messy last couple of weeks.

Should be a very interesting campaign.

Leroy Lynch
Guest
The last full Galaxy Poll http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/2627-feb-2014/ 26/27 Feb 2014 Primary Vote Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014 The Liberal Party 38.0% 37% The Nationals 6.8% 5% Total Coalition 44.8% 42% Labor Party 36.2% 39% The Greens 11.2% 12% Other 7.8% 7% 6% uncommitted or refused excluded Two party preferred Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014 Coalition 51.6% 49% Labor 48.4% 51%
Tom the first and best
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Tom the first and best

4

My thoughts exactly.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

This is the February Galaxy poll the “right direction” question is benchmarked against. It was an issues only poll, at least in the paper, no voting intentions released.

http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/herald-sungalaxy-poll-reveals-airport-rail-link-our-top-priority/story-fnii5sms-1226843123689

Leroy Lynch
Guest

There hasn’t been a Victorian Reachtel poll since November 2013, but you can plot the primary votes as a bit of a conmparison, a change between Galaxy & the last Reachtel.

https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-november-2013

Th last bi-monthly Newspoll, covering a sample taken over May & June. Note the primaries over time.

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/06/25/1226966/978333-140626vicnewspoll.pdf

Essential Research polling up to May.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/31/essential-research-53-47-to-labor-in-victoria/

Wakefield
Guest

Perhaps people mean headed in right direction in getting a new government!

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