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Federal Politics 2013-

Aug 22, 2014

ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

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1157 comments

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Raaraa
Guest
J341983
Guest

A 7% positive shift in Shorten’s approvals, Abbott goes backwards… and Shorten is preferred PM again… and the ALP is going backwards?

I do wonder whether an analysis of the 2013 preferences being used is actually telling the whole story.

mikehilliard
Guest

Help Im lost. 😀

Centre
Guest

zoid @ 1151 & 1152

Not too bad.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 39 (-2) Shorten 40 (+3) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 36 (0) Disapprove 55 (+1) #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 39 (+3) Disapprove 40 (-4) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (0) ALP 34 (0) GRN 11 (-2) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+1) ALP 51 (-1) #auspol

mikehilliard
Guest

Centre

By the look on his face it’s already there.

J341983
Guest

51-49? Meh… it’ll do. Let’s see how they’re doing after the sitting fortnight 🙂

Centre
Guest

Kelly should stick his book up his arse!

Centre
Guest

mike

Gareth should grow a spine, it’s 2014. Murdoch media is dying.

mikehilliard
Guest

Centre

I was thinking the same. Grotesque.

zoidlord
Guest

Retweeted by Kevin Bonham
Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38 8m

Tomorrow’s #newspoll 2PP: ALP 51 Coalition 49 Primary ALP 34 (0) L/NP 40 (0) Grns 11 (-2) Others (incl PUP) 15 (+2) #qanda #auspol

bemused
Guest

PeeBee@1138

Bemused, press the menu button in the online Age. It is the 8th option down in the first column.

Menu button? Not seeing it.

Centre
Guest

To see someone as highly intelligent as Gareth Evans sucking up to Lord Rear Ender himself (Paul Kelly)…

is sickening!!!

mikehilliard
Guest

Kelly is so partisan he can even convince himself.

zoidlord
Guest

@EDJ/1137

He’s more amusing than you are 🙂

PeeBee
Guest

Bemused, press the menu button in the online Age. It is the 8th option down in the first column.

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