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Federal Politics 2013-

Aug 22, 2014

ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

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1157 comments

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Raaraa
Guest
J341983
Guest

A 7% positive shift in Shorten’s approvals, Abbott goes backwards… and Shorten is preferred PM again… and the ALP is going backwards?

I do wonder whether an analysis of the 2013 preferences being used is actually telling the whole story.

mikehilliard
Guest

Help Im lost. 😀

Centre
Guest

zoid @ 1151 & 1152

Not too bad.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 39 (-2) Shorten 40 (+3) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 36 (0) Disapprove 55 (+1) #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 39 (+3) Disapprove 40 (-4) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (0) ALP 34 (0) GRN 11 (-2) #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+1) ALP 51 (-1) #auspol

mikehilliard
Guest

Centre

By the look on his face it’s already there.

J341983
Guest

51-49? Meh… it’ll do. Let’s see how they’re doing after the sitting fortnight 🙂

Centre
Guest

Kelly should stick his book up his arse!

Centre
Guest

mike

Gareth should grow a spine, it’s 2014. Murdoch media is dying.

mikehilliard
Guest

Centre

I was thinking the same. Grotesque.

zoidlord
Guest

Retweeted by Kevin Bonham
Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38 8m

Tomorrow’s #newspoll 2PP: ALP 51 Coalition 49 Primary ALP 34 (0) L/NP 40 (0) Grns 11 (-2) Others (incl PUP) 15 (+2) #qanda #auspol

bemused
Guest

PeeBee@1138

Bemused, press the menu button in the online Age. It is the 8th option down in the first column.

Menu button? Not seeing it.

Centre
Guest

To see someone as highly intelligent as Gareth Evans sucking up to Lord Rear Ender himself (Paul Kelly)…

is sickening!!!

mikehilliard
Guest

Kelly is so partisan he can even convince himself.

zoidlord
Guest

@EDJ/1137

He’s more amusing than you are 🙂

PeeBee
Guest

Bemused, press the menu button in the online Age. It is the 8th option down in the first column.

Edwina StJohn
Guest

Aussiea why don’t you go and bore people with your rants at your local mens shed ?

bemused
Guest

PeeBee@1113

Lizzie, check out the arts section Arts and Society section of the online Age. Under the heading ‘Passionate naturalist dedicated to sharing his knowledge’.

I couldn’t even find an ‘Arts and Society’ section.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Wow a Labor government gave MurdochInc a grant and a Coalition government is taking action to recover it. Priceless.

I wonder if Murdoch saw that coming during his campaign to be President of Australia

J341983
Guest

Hmmmm no smug tweet from PvO yet?

pedant
Guest

If, following Minister Joyce, we are engaged tonight in a search for an appropriate disease as a metaphor for the budget, could I nominate the one mentioned by the late Lowell Thomas in a broadcast: “a fartal hate attack”.

lefty e
Guest

Shock findings! (Well…except for anyone who’s ever attended a demonstration…)

http://www.salon.com/2014/08/22/researchers_police_likely_provoke_protestors_%E2%80%94_not_the_other_way_around/

Steve777
Guest

Stop the goats!

Steve777
Guest

Super tax concessions cost about $30 billion per annum, rapidly escalating. We are close to or have already reached the point where it would be cheaoer to simply pay everyone over 65 the aged pension. Simply applying income tax to the income component of super pensions (but not the return of capital) would be a huge saving. That is what we did prior to 2007.

We could also wind back other Howard-era changes including the private health insurance rebate, the CGT discount and the Howard model for funding private schools before we need to even think of hitting low income earners.

davidwh
Guest

Wow a Labor government gave MurdochInc a grant and a Coalition government is taking action to recover it. Priceless.

Martin B
Guest

When the government puts the $9b of super tax concessions – overwhelmingly benefiting high income earners – on the table we might start listening to the ‘budget emergency’ guff. Until then it’s just their choices to shift resources from the poor to the rich.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

A failed investment company part-owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp received a second taxpayer-funded grant for an environmental project that it never completed, the Federal Environment Department says.

The department has confirmed it intends to use “legal mechanisms” or other means to recover the $134,904 payment made in 2012 to RM Williams Agricultural Holdings, which collapsed last year owing tens of millions to investors.

The payment came shortly after the company was given $9.1 million in taxpayers’ money to buy a cattle station that was supposed to become the world’s largest carbon farm and make News Corp carbon neutral.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/failed-news-corp-carbon-venture-extracted-a-second-government-grant-20140810-zy0cs.html#ixzz3BOiQVt3d

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Obviously the goats or Premier couldn’t read so the Premier’s Literacy Awards were null and void.

Fulvio Sammut
Guest

What have you got against goats?

zoidlord
Guest

Is Tony Abbott match fixing with donating to sport clubs?

poroti
Guest
AussieAchmed [$10 million to Manly Rugby Club, $5 million to the Broncos. Because we have a budget emergency] CanJoh’s effort during his budget emergency 🙂 [Qld govt funds goat races The funding comes after the Queensland government’s commission of audit into the state’s finances last month revealed the state’s debt was heading for $100 billion by 2018/19 unless savings were made. The Premier’s Literary Awards became the government’s first financial victim, saving the state $245,000 after they were cut] http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/qld-govt-funds-goat-races/story-fnejo58q-1226421866025?nk=c4e57a002325d9718f6dc062dc58f0f7 The funding comes after the Queensland government’s commission of audit into the state’s finances last month revealed the state’s debt… Read more »
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

$10 million to Manly Rugby Club, $5 million to the Broncos.

Because we have a budget emergency

poroti
Guest

AA

[He opposed it totally in Opposition.]
So much so he could do it in his sleep 😉

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

#ABC Brisbane
Abbott admitted this morning that Wayne Swan’s GFC stimulus package was NECESSARY.

He opposed it totally in Opposition.

Talk about mixed messages….all Coalition messages been through the blender

frednk
Guest

If you want your states credit rating downgraded vote Liberal.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/25/western-australia-credit-rating-downgraded-moodys

lizzie
Guest

Rocket

Thank you. It’s been a heavy few weeks. His memorial is on Friday so I’ve been a bit busy organizing it. So many kind condolences received.

Raaraa
Guest

bemused 1114

Perhaps you can do a screen capture and send it to lizzie.

Power button + home button does the trick.

lizzie
Guest

Pee Bee

Thank you so much. I naturally just looked under obits.

bemused
Guest

lizzie@1100

bemused

Why should an iPad version be different from my computer subscription version? This is crazy.

My iPad version is a complete facsimile of the dead tree version. I can email it to you but it only sends the text and not the photo.

Got to go now – let me know later if you want it.

PeeBee
Guest

Lizzie, check out the arts section Arts and Society section of the online Age. Under the heading ‘Passionate naturalist dedicated to sharing his knowledge’.

mikehilliard
Guest

Steve777

[the 80 foot, 80 ton dead whale that washed up on the beach]

This is the only cure for beached whales and bad budgets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Vmnq5dBF7Y

poroti
Guest

Oh and not to let Tony ““You can tell the rental houses in a street” Abbott do any speech writing either.

Rocket Rocket
Guest

lizzie

My condolences on your loss last month. I would have written at the time but was myself reeling from a colleague’s death.

Reading “The Age” obituary Ken sounds like a remarkable guy and a real scientific “polymath”. His Honorary M.Sc. was clearly well-deserved.

I recall you writing about what a character he was – I wonder if he ever caught up with ‘Olsen’s Standard Book of British Birds’ in Monty Python (originally in the 1948 Show)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p62uutgNN4c

poroti
Guest

guytaur

[He is wrong because the public rejected unfairness]
Another lesson of Fightback was not to let Tony Abbott help write your policy.

victoria
Guest

Qanda tonight

Gareth Evans – Former Australian Foreign Minister
Paul Kelly – Editor-at-large The Australian
Elizabeth Pisani – Author and Indonesia commentator
Tasneem Chopra – Chair, Australian Muslim Women’s Centre for Human Rights
Ali Alizadeh – Iranian-Australian author and academic

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