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Victorian Politics

Aug 24, 2014

Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor in Victoria

The latest Newspoll bi-monthly state result for Victoria finds Denis Napthine's government facing a daunting task as the clock ticks down on the November 29 election.

Last week Galaxy had it at 52-48, but now we have Newspoll recording Labor with a much bigger lead on state voting intention in Victoria, at 55-45 on two-party preferred and 37% to 35% on the primary vote, the former figure being juiced up by the Greens’ 16%. This reflects a one-point shift to Labor from the May-June result, with primary vote shifts of two points away from the Coalition (Liberal and the Nationals down a point each to 32% and 3%) and one point away from Labor, with the Greens unchanged. It should be noted that this poll was conducted progressively over the two months of July and August, and is thus less timely than the Galaxy result. The poll also finds Denis Napthine down four points on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 43%. More to follow.

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43 comments

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Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

42

We will have a better idea of what will happen to the ALP and Green votes at the election, in the likely event that the East-West Link contracts are signed before the election, once the contracts are signed and the ALP announces its position on them after that. The ALP announcing it would stick to the contracts and not cancel the project, which is likely to happen, would almost certainly cause a big swing to the Greens and deliver them Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and possibly Prahran and Northcote.

centaur009
Guest

the one thing that this poll highlights is apart from the TPP is that the Labor primary vote has not moved an inch. It is the same as it was at the 2010 election. Not all those votes will come back to ALP-
I would expect Greens to win Melbourne and possibly richmond

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

39

Prahran is entirely losable for the Liberals. They only gained the seat in 2010 and the redistribution has cut their margin by moving some of their best bits of the seat into safe Liberal Malvern.

40

You have ignored one of my main points, that because the Greens are closer to the ALP than the Liberals politically, the ALP voters are more likely than Liberal voters to switch to the Greens, regardless of where the primary votes are.

It is possible that the Greens out poll the ALP but the Liberals still win. Remember that the bigger the swing to the ALP in Prahran, the bigger the Greens vote needs to be to overcome the ALP.

Work To Rule
Guest

38

Probably “poaching” is the wrong term – “shift” would be better. Certainly not implying that there is anything wrong with a political party trying to persuade people to change their votes – quite the reverse.

In Prahran, I think the Green campaign is very energized partly because they are attempting to unseat a conservative. But, as you point out, they first need to poll higher than the ALP, and in that context, shifting an ALP vote moves them more quickly towards objective of winning the seat.

39

I’d be pretty surprised if the Greens did managed to come second but the overall progressive vote was still not sufficient to defeat the conservatives.

centaur009
Guest

The Greens have every chance of coming 2nd in Prahran- Lib will still win though.
Only seats in play are carrum, mordialloc, frankston, bentleigh, and forest hill. There are a few notionall lib seats so ripon, yan yean, in the mix

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

36

Votes do not belong to parties, they belong to voters. If a party is continually loosing votes to another party, then it is because the voters think that the party they are changing their vote to is more representative of them. We are a democracy not a feudal society and therefore taking votes is not poaching but electoral competition at work.

The Greens represent progressive voters and there are few of those voting for the Coalition but many voting for the ALP. That is why the Greens take votes from the ALP, because they better represent the voters who they are taking from the ALP.

Work To Rule
Guest

36

Quite true, I was more making the point that Prahran is a detailed example of the general case that, in cold tactical terms, Green progress is best facilitate by poaching ALP votes rather than Lib votes.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

35

It is very unlikely for the Liberals to come third. Their vote is just too high. They will come second or first. The Greens only chance is overtaking the ALP.

Work To Rule
Guest

33

Assuming the Liberals choose to preference ALP over the greens then then Prahran may be primarily determined by who comes third. If the ALP comes third then the greens are a genuine chance. If the Libs come third then the ALP is comfortably home.

Which is interesting, tactically, for the greens as it means that getting an ALP voter to switch to the greens is more valuable than getting a Lib to do the same.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

33

A close 3-way race at that. The only 3-way competitive seat.

badseed
Guest

Liberal MP Clem Newton-Brown was at Toorak Station this morning. That’s the 3rd consecutive week he’s been there. Also seen the ALP candidate once in that time frame, and the Greens candidate also once.

I’m guessing everyones internal numbers are showing Prahran being a close race!

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

I predict that the Greens will come second in Footscray. There was only a 243 vote gap between them and the Liberals at the final exclusion and the Green vote looks likely to go up and this should be enough to put the Greens in second place, even with a slightly unfavourable redistribution.

Corio
Guest

Bugler @ 30

Of course, Abbott has said he’ll give a few billion of Commonwealth money to build the tunnel (both bits), but he wont release any federal cash at all for public transport projects. So Abbott’s money probably would be withdrawn if the tunnel is canned.

Bugler
Guest

Corio,

Nonetheless I don’t see why the various unions can’t get behind the so-called “Project 10,000” rather than agitate for the E-W Link rubbish.

Not being something I follow the minutiae of, I couldn’t tell you if the money not spent on the road will be spent as a part of Project 10,000 or on the (actual, planned) Metro Tunnel, both of which provide more jobs and are better infrastructure investments.

Bird of paradox
Guest

[ This reflects a one-point shift to Labor from the May-June result, with primary vote shifts of two points away from the Coalition (Liberal and the Nationals down a point each to 32% and 3%) and one point away from Labor, with the Greens unchanged. ]

So, the “others” vote is up three points, and manages to turn -1 on primary votes to +1 on 2pp for Labor. Those are some pretty Labor-friendly numbers for minor parties… would that be PUP?

Rocket Rocket
Guest

lefty e – I think the other amusing “contortion” is the backsliding when any Liberal member is asked how much the toll will be on this east-west link. Their modelling and business case obviously has the number but they are absolutely sh*t scared that if the “Ten Dollar Toll” becomes public they are even more stuffed. This amount of tunnelling and distance and expense almost certainly means a toll of at least ten dollars to begin with – but this is the toll “that dare not speak its price”!

It would be hilariously funny if every media interviewer from now until election day started with the question “And so, do you know how much the toll will be on the eats-west link?”. They would try the old “Haven’t read that report yet” tactic but the excuses would wear pretty thin pretty quickly.

Corio
Guest

Bugler @ 24

Scrapping EW Link is probably also something (a) certain union/s may not appreciate and may be applying pressure behind the scenes.

The Regional Rail Link, flawed as it is, employed 3000 people at its peak. Other public transport projects could do the same.

Bugler
Guest

Lefty e,

[Do exactly has you did at the Lilydale campus of Swinburne, give fair warning that the incoming government will not approve.]

The ALP got in early and put a “Only Labor will reinstate Lilydale Swinburne” on the intersection of Maroondah Highway and Dorset Road in Croydon as soon as the PUP candidate’s sign went. (Background, that intersection is (apparently) one of the worst in terms of how long you have to wait for a sequence of lights in the state. Quite busy during peak times meaning lots of eyes spending lots of time reading it)

Bugler
Guest

Tom,

I’ll admit I’m not totally across inner-city thinking and political developments, having spent all my life in the outer east or beyond the urban boundary (it’s also barely talked about east of Blackburn, in my experience). That is possible and I do think Napthine signing the contracts with onerous penalties in place for breaking them is quite likely so if Labor comes out against it, they have a multi-billion dollar white elephant they have to deal with.

Scrapping EW Link is probably also something (a) certain union/s may not appreciate and may be applying pressure behind the scenes. The intelligent thing for said union would be to back off considering the trouble Andrews has with his association with them to begin with and I imagine bargains are being done with regard to Labor’s own jobs agenda. I foresee Labor committing to do what it can to make sure it doesn’t go ahead which – without wishing to start a protracted argument – is the only sensible approach to the issue.

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