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Federal Politics 2013-

Aug 25, 2014

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor's post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

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BK
Guest
BK
Guest

Section 2 . . .

Kevin Bloody Andrews – Family Man of the Year. What an accolade!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/27/kevin-andrews-natural-family-man-of-the-year-would-be-a-funny-concept-if-it-wasnt-so-serious
Pyne’s finest hour is near.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-to-unveil-higher-education-legislation-20140827-1096il.html
Now this inquiry (if it gets up) will be a beauty!!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clean-energy-industry-calls-for-inquiry-into-renewable-energy-target-review-20140827-10974m.html
Joe Hockey’s not having a great time lately.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockeys-bid-to-hire-author-david-hunt-as-speechwriter-stutters-to-a-halt-20140827-1096yc.html
Labor’s questioning gets Hockey (at last) to admit to a $7b pensions reduction.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/27/joe-hockey-concedes-7bn-cut-in-pension-budget-under-changes
“Joe has lost his mojo – here comes Julie Bishop” says Paul Sheehan.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/julie-bishop-gathers-support-as-next-lib-leader-20140827-1090yf.html
A desperate Malaysia Airlines goes into cut price mode.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/08/27/malaysia-airlines-cheaper-air-asia/
Nice work from Kathy Jackson.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/hospitals-250000-payment-to-health-union-based-on-grossly-inflated-legal-fees-20140827-1092nn.html
Peter Wicks says the wheels fell of Kathy’s bus yesterday at the hearing.
http://wixxyleaks.com/runaway-train-the-jacksonville-train-leaves-the-rails-at-royal-commission/
The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/27/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-43/

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

Abbott’s internal woes are coming to light now.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-snubbed-his-senators-for-melbourne-fundraiser-20140827-1097w2.html
Abbott’s blood is in the water and News Ltd is nowhere to be found – New Matilda.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/27/abbotts-blood-water-and-news-limiteds-nowhere-be-found
Yes, he’s under pressure over his travel claim reasoning.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/27/tony-abbott-under-pressure-over-melbourne-travel-expenses
No doubt Abbott will study polling results before making a decision to go to war. Again!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/terror-hits-home-us-said-to-be-seeking-allies-for-iraq-bombing-raids-20140827-3efh3.html
Michelle Grattan’s take on Abbott’s rush to war.
https://theconversation.com/abbott-government-is-readying-to-put-on-the-khaki-30988
Nick Xenophon piles into Alan Joyce.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/qantas-chief-alan-joyce-has-many-questions-to-answer-20140827-108wov.html
Now it’s 9 disgraced NSW Libs – and still counting!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/now-the-nsw-liberals-worry-is-not-mathematics-its-geography-20140827-1095l9.html
How can religious chaplains be “non-judgemental? Abbott is a disgrace on this ideological matter.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-to-keep-secular-workers-out-of-school-chaplaincy-program-20140827-1091u0.html
Mark Latham says Labor needs to see “Bill the Bastard”.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/labor_needs_to_see_bill_the_bastard_ME7JT3dRzUGNGYc2C8hY1N
This will be interesting. Eventually!
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/legislation-to-define-exactly-what-metadata-will-be-stored-for-law-enforcement-and-spies-20140827-1094su.html

ruawake
Guest

[Interesting column by Nikki Savva concerning the Peter McCallum Centre matter.]

Who is leaking…

The comments are a hoot.

Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Budget2014, #Terror, #abbott & #JoHo, t’CoPilots by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1qKZqjU

confessions
Guest

davidwh:

My own view is that there isn’t much we can do in the ME that is going to have meaningful or lasting benefits to the people there.

And yes, our govt is always going to trumpet its allegiances with allies over and above domestic matters. Hence that earlier tweet I referred to in saying as much.

Next 2 years is going to be mega boring.

davidwh
Guest

That may be a problem Zoidlord 🙂

Fran Barlow
Guest
Caf [Fran Barlow: The major cost, I imagine, would be lower overall productivity as more time was taken up by transport. This would particularly be the case in regional areas with less population density, where public transport would necessarily run to sparser timetables.] My model was confined to urban areas. Outside of them the rules could be far more permissive. I imagine that public transport in urban areas would have been far better in the absence of most private use motor vehicles. Also, some areas of productivity would have improved. Transport would have been far more efficient since mean traffic… Read more »
deblonay
Guest
Abbott and”security” and terrorism +___________________________ It’s clear that the govt want to use the “national danger” meme to help to give Abbott th national figure image and also to help distract the voters in fact the crisis in Syria has been extended over recent years by the crazy US policy of helping the anti-Assad forces in Syria…,despite wernings that they were linked with radical islamist forces there If the Tea Party Repubs in the US and their Isreali mates had had their way they would have launched a major war on Iran,which might now be a failed state like Libya… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@davidwh/898

Yes, but can the current administration has any intelligence?

davidwh
Guest

F18’s can be mean and nasty if used intelligently 🙂

Norwester
Guest

If we attack IS we must send in our best and bravest, meanest and nastiest. Handburners and Manus guards in the first wave for mine.

davidwh
Guest
Fess I think there will be consequences whatever we do or don’t do. To me it’s a straight forward issue. If we can do something that will help stabilize the situation and allow the Iraq government to get some control back from ISIS we should. However I think any support should be limited to air support. If there is no chance the Iraq government can regain some control then there is little point and less hope. But I don’t think we can do nothing if we can contribute in a meaningful way. The human atrocities are just too bad to… Read more »
Sustainable future
Guest

zoidlord @ 893 – in their case it is WFOTP – willing for others to pay.

Sustainable future
Guest

watch as the war on ISIL is used to justify taxes, levies, slashing of spending, sale of assetts, and dropping of the PPL fantasy – and the booming deficit. maybe to save money parliament will set less often? ‘Team ‘Straya’ to be used to shut down debate on a range of issues.

zoidlord
Guest

@SF/889

The use of “willing” reminds me of the CBA releases by Turnbull, WTP BWTP (Willing to Pay, Business Willing To Pay).

confessions
Guest

davidwh:

In whatever way we get involved in whatever might be happening or might eventuate in the future, it’s unlikely to be clean or without blowback.

caf
Guest

davidwh:

[Fess I think the chances we will commit F18′s is pretty high but I doubt we will commit to a ground force.]

Yes, it seems like Iran will be supplying group troops (Quds force) and the West will be supplying air power, which allows both to play to their strengths and to pretend not to notice the involvement of the other.

bemused
Guest
Sustainable future@889 and here we go http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/abbott-government-has-isis-dossier-as-barack-obama-builds-iraq-coalition-of-the-willing/story-fni0xs61-1227039129794 the ‘abbott government’ complied the dossier apparently – not the intelligence agencies or the army. the abbott government did it. let’s hope they did a better job of it than the howard government did on weapons of mass destruction and children overboard. murdoch media to beat the war drum for days to come and abbott to dismiss all questions as unimportant compared to his churchillian moment (probably more akin to Gallipoli than the battle of Britain). he’s as crazy as Churchill, with the same levels of empathy for others. He probably got Joe… Read more »
Sustainable future
Guest

and here we go

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/abbott-government-has-isis-dossier-as-barack-obama-builds-iraq-coalition-of-the-willing/story-fni0xs61-1227039129794

the ‘abbott government’ complied the dossier apparently – not the intelligence agencies or the army. the abbott government did it. let’s hope they did a better job of it than the howard government did on weapons of mass destruction and children overboard.

murdoch media to beat the war drum for days to come and abbott to dismiss all questions as unimportant compared to his churchillian moment (probably more akin to Gallipoli than the battle of Britain). he’s as crazy as Churchill, with the same levels of empathy for others.

caf
Guest

It’s not necessarily a zero-sum game to bomb both the IS and Assad forces in Syria, because the Syrian conflict is most definitely a three-sided one. The problem is that the third side – the “Free Syrian Army”, the Syrian Kurds and others – is a loose coalition with the least military power of the three main factions, and it seems insufficient to ever be able to exercise effective control over the entire country.

davidwh
Guest

Fess I think the chances we will commit F18’s is pretty high but I doubt we will commit to a ground force.

lefty e
Guest
[Abbott’s rorting of expenses (once again) seems to have been dropped by the media, as has the really big story of who leaked it and the inquisition and retribution I am sure is in play within the LNP this week. If this happened in the ALP the media would be talking destablisation and pending leadership challenges] Absolutely. I just complaned to the ABC,as follows. Do the same if youre pissed off. http://www.abc.net.au/contact/complain.htm I ranted: [I was absolutely gobsmacked to find no mention of PM Abbott’s travel claims in Melbourne on this evening’s news. Nothing. If this had been a Labor… Read more »
confessions
Guest

zoid, davidwh:

*Gasp*

You mean a Great Big New Tax to pay for war?!

😮

Despite war not being outside the realms of possibility with this govt, I’m still thinking it’s unlikely Abbott would go there. Much easier to frou frou about the margins and talk up the Big I Am than to actually be responsible for troops on the ground in a messy situation.

caf
Guest

Fran Barlow: The major cost, I imagine, would be lower overall productivity as more time was taken up by transport. This would particularly be the case in regional areas with less population density, where public transport would necessarily run to sparser timetables.

It would probably have resulted in more urbanisation, as the more efficient transport available in the cities attracted people.

Cabbies would do very well, too – ahh, you had a vested interest all along!

confessions
Guest

lizzie:

I learned to ignore / scroll! 😉

Btw, hope you’re doing okay with everything post Ken. I’ve noticed you aren’t around so much for dawn patrol these days and assume it’s because you don’t have that extra pair of hands to help with your mum?

Sustainable future
Guest
Abbott’s rorting of expenses (once again) seems to have been dropped by the media, as has the really big story of who leaked it and the inquisition and retribution I am sure is in play within the LNP this week. If this happened in the ALP the media would be talking destablisation and pending leadership challenges. Shorten played it very well – let them rip themselves to shreds – but he should let a backbencher join the dots between this, hockey’s car and overnight expenses when staying at his wife’s property, pyne and other’s use of air force planes on… Read more »
davidwh
Guest

Fess just up the co-payment to $15 that should pay for Iraq#3.

Note above is a cynical comment.

zoidlord
Guest

@Confessions/877

Money is always available for a war, apparently.

The issue is, will there be a levy or a tax to pay for it?

lizzie
Guest

Fess
You know the answer already!

boomy1
Guest

‘Truly bunny boiler stuff however.’

Jesus, sounds inexplicable.

confessions
Guest

If we do end up sending troops wherever, how will we afford it?

davidwh
Guest

Bunny boiler 🙂

confessions
Guest

[Why should guytaur and zoidlord be attacked]

Because in an online environment there will always be fellow commenters who don’t feel they’re contributing unless they’re attacking other commenters.

Who the hell knows what their motivation is. Truly bunny boiler stuff however.

davidwh
Guest

Sometimes the political and polling links make less sense than the other links. Many Twitter links are no more than personal opinions of bloggers without any way of testing the information in the links.

That’s why they invented the scroll bar.

zoidlord
Guest

@bemused/865

bahah, your cryptic as PvO is.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Oops … Hardie Ferodo 1000 …

Fran Barlow
Guest
Yesterday I posted a counterfactual here, exploring what the consequences might have been had Australian governments effectively suppressed almost all private use of motor vehicles on urban roads in about 1960. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/08/25/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-3/?comment_page=9/#comment-2041733 While there were some very obvious benefits — reductions in road trauma and death being the most obvious likely consequence, along with cleaner air, less pollution of soils with lead, less urban sprawl, probably a trading surplus in oil, lower GHGs, I haven’t been able to come up with any serious costs. I’m sure there must be some. Maybe the 1960s would have been more boring. Those car… Read more »
confessions
Guest
[ Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 8h On #PVOnewshour I’m chatting national security with Justice Minister Michael Keenan & budget with assistant shadow treasurer Dr Andrew Leigh] I can’t remember who it was, but on twitter recently, soon as Abbott started arking up about terror this and beheading that, they tweeted that the major parties had their lines for the next two years: the coalition on terror this and beheading that, and Labor on health and education. And expect to see this until the next election. And so it begins with the coalition sending out its justice minister to an… Read more »
bemused
Guest

outside left@867

DL , Guytaur is relevant and a good source here

Occasionally.

lizzie
Guest

Why should guytaur and zoidlord be attacked when everyone , at some time, pops in a reference which is not directly related to polling or politics. I am a serial offender in this regard, but the habit is, IMO what makes pb into a community of interest rather than a dull series.

outside left
Guest

DL , Guytaur is relevant and a good source here

It's Time
Guest

Gotta agree with Bemused about #852, who cares.

BTW, bickering between zoidlord and Bemused, who cares.

bemused
Guest

zoidlord@864

@bemused/862

Your original comment is not polite request “who cares”.

That was a hint.

zoidlord
Guest

@bemused/862

Your original comment is not polite request “who cares”.

Fran Barlow
Guest
quite by accident the other day, I came across an interesting coincidence. Here in Australia we use the term ‘Dorothy Dixer’ to describe a question designed to permit a person on one’s own side of party politics to talk about what he or she wanted to talk about during Question Time. This derived from the name of an American advice columnist who, apparently, made up her own questions. Classic sockpuppetry! Interestingly though, there was an American social reformer by the name of Dorothea Dix who seems, for her time (1802-1887), to have been an insistently worthy woman. She worked to… Read more »
bemused
Guest

zoidlord@858

@bemused/857

No, because you being a rude bugger to other people.

Demanding person.

Calm down, I only made a polite request.

zoidlord
Guest

@Daren/859

It’s revelent because it’s a political blog and policies that are effected.

Twitter is a social media..

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