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Federal Politics 2013-

Aug 25, 2014

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor's post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

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BK
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BK
Guest

Section 2 . . .

Kevin Bloody Andrews – Family Man of the Year. What an accolade!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/27/kevin-andrews-natural-family-man-of-the-year-would-be-a-funny-concept-if-it-wasnt-so-serious
Pyne’s finest hour is near.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-to-unveil-higher-education-legislation-20140827-1096il.html
Now this inquiry (if it gets up) will be a beauty!!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clean-energy-industry-calls-for-inquiry-into-renewable-energy-target-review-20140827-10974m.html
Joe Hockey’s not having a great time lately.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockeys-bid-to-hire-author-david-hunt-as-speechwriter-stutters-to-a-halt-20140827-1096yc.html
Labor’s questioning gets Hockey (at last) to admit to a $7b pensions reduction.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/27/joe-hockey-concedes-7bn-cut-in-pension-budget-under-changes
“Joe has lost his mojo – here comes Julie Bishop” says Paul Sheehan.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/julie-bishop-gathers-support-as-next-lib-leader-20140827-1090yf.html
A desperate Malaysia Airlines goes into cut price mode.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/08/27/malaysia-airlines-cheaper-air-asia/
Nice work from Kathy Jackson.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/hospitals-250000-payment-to-health-union-based-on-grossly-inflated-legal-fees-20140827-1092nn.html
Peter Wicks says the wheels fell of Kathy’s bus yesterday at the hearing.
http://wixxyleaks.com/runaway-train-the-jacksonville-train-leaves-the-rails-at-royal-commission/
The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/27/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-43/

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

Abbott’s internal woes are coming to light now.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-snubbed-his-senators-for-melbourne-fundraiser-20140827-1097w2.html
Abbott’s blood is in the water and News Ltd is nowhere to be found – New Matilda.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/27/abbotts-blood-water-and-news-limiteds-nowhere-be-found
Yes, he’s under pressure over his travel claim reasoning.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/27/tony-abbott-under-pressure-over-melbourne-travel-expenses
No doubt Abbott will study polling results before making a decision to go to war. Again!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/terror-hits-home-us-said-to-be-seeking-allies-for-iraq-bombing-raids-20140827-3efh3.html
Michelle Grattan’s take on Abbott’s rush to war.
https://theconversation.com/abbott-government-is-readying-to-put-on-the-khaki-30988
Nick Xenophon piles into Alan Joyce.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/qantas-chief-alan-joyce-has-many-questions-to-answer-20140827-108wov.html
Now it’s 9 disgraced NSW Libs – and still counting!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/now-the-nsw-liberals-worry-is-not-mathematics-its-geography-20140827-1095l9.html
How can religious chaplains be “non-judgemental? Abbott is a disgrace on this ideological matter.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-to-keep-secular-workers-out-of-school-chaplaincy-program-20140827-1091u0.html
Mark Latham says Labor needs to see “Bill the Bastard”.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/labor_needs_to_see_bill_the_bastard_ME7JT3dRzUGNGYc2C8hY1N
This will be interesting. Eventually!
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/legislation-to-define-exactly-what-metadata-will-be-stored-for-law-enforcement-and-spies-20140827-1094su.html

ruawake
Guest

[Interesting column by Nikki Savva concerning the Peter McCallum Centre matter.]

Who is leaking…

The comments are a hoot.

Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Budget2014, #Terror, #abbott & #JoHo, t’CoPilots by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1qKZqjU

confessions
Guest

davidwh:

My own view is that there isn’t much we can do in the ME that is going to have meaningful or lasting benefits to the people there.

And yes, our govt is always going to trumpet its allegiances with allies over and above domestic matters. Hence that earlier tweet I referred to in saying as much.

Next 2 years is going to be mega boring.

davidwh
Guest

That may be a problem Zoidlord 🙂

Fran Barlow
Guest

Caf

[Fran Barlow: The major cost, I imagine, would be lower overall productivity as more time was taken up by transport. This would particularly be the case in regional areas with less population density, where public transport would necessarily run to sparser timetables.]

My model was confined to urban areas. Outside of them the rules could be far more permissive. I imagine that public transport in urban areas would have been far better in the absence of most private use motor vehicles. Also, some areas of productivity would have improved. Transport would have been far more efficient since mean traffic speeds would have been far higher. Also. I imagine that respiratory illness would have far been lower, and therefore you’d have fewer sick days. Equally, people wouldn’t be travelling from as far away, so public transport times would be very competitive with today’s long commutes.

deblonay
Guest

Abbott and”security” and terrorism
+___________________________
It’s clear that the govt want to use the “national danger” meme to help to give Abbott th national figure image and also to help distract the voters

in fact the crisis in Syria has been extended over recent years by the crazy US policy of helping the anti-Assad forces in Syria…,despite wernings that they were linked with radical islamist forces there

If the Tea Party Repubs in the US and their Isreali mates had had their way they would have launched a major war on Iran,which might now be a failed state like Libya and Iraq …bth states remain the worst examaples of US policy disasters in the region

yet Abbott would love to get us involved in a nicekind of war in the Middle East…the Libs thrive on this situation

zoidlord
Guest

@davidwh/898

Yes, but can the current administration has any intelligence?

davidwh
Guest

F18’s can be mean and nasty if used intelligently 🙂

Norwester
Guest

If we attack IS we must send in our best and bravest, meanest and nastiest. Handburners and Manus guards in the first wave for mine.

davidwh
Guest

Fess I think there will be consequences whatever we do or don’t do. To me it’s a straight forward issue. If we can do something that will help stabilize the situation and allow the Iraq government to get some control back from ISIS we should. However I think any support should be limited to air support.

If there is no chance the Iraq government can regain some control then there is little point and less hope.

But I don’t think we can do nothing if we can contribute in a meaningful way. The human atrocities are just too bad to ignore.

Again but, there are no easy rights and wrongs in the ME.

Sustainable future
Guest

zoidlord @ 893 – in their case it is WFOTP – willing for others to pay.

Sustainable future
Guest

watch as the war on ISIL is used to justify taxes, levies, slashing of spending, sale of assetts, and dropping of the PPL fantasy – and the booming deficit. maybe to save money parliament will set less often? ‘Team ‘Straya’ to be used to shut down debate on a range of issues.

zoidlord
Guest

@SF/889

The use of “willing” reminds me of the CBA releases by Turnbull, WTP BWTP (Willing to Pay, Business Willing To Pay).

confessions
Guest

davidwh:

In whatever way we get involved in whatever might be happening or might eventuate in the future, it’s unlikely to be clean or without blowback.

caf
Guest

davidwh:

[Fess I think the chances we will commit F18′s is pretty high but I doubt we will commit to a ground force.]

Yes, it seems like Iran will be supplying group troops (Quds force) and the West will be supplying air power, which allows both to play to their strengths and to pretend not to notice the involvement of the other.

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