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Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No real change in Essential Research, but some interesting findings from both parties' internal pollsters have emerged in the media this week.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research has both major parties up a point on the primary vote (the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 38%), both minor parties down a point (the Greens to 9%, Palmer United to 5%), and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 to Labor. The poll also has 57% saying the threat to Australia from terrorism has increased over the past few years with only 6% saying it has decreased, and 33% opting for stayed about the same; 56% approving of government spending to reduce the threat of terrorism versus 24% disapproving; 57% rating the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive versus 30% negative; 63% believing prospective migrants should not be rejected on the basis of religion versus 21% who say they should; and strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.

Federal electoral news nuggets:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports Senators Stephen Conroy and Kim Carr are facing opposition within their respective Right and Left factions over their determination to seek another term at the next federal election. Partly at issue is Labor’s affirmative action requirement that at least 40 per cent of winnable seats go to women. Under a party rule to take effect on January 1, a spill of all preselections will occur if the requirement isn’t met. Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports that some in the ALP believe the Carr and Conroy preselections are being fast-tracked to lock them in before the rule takes effect. Carr is quoted saying the requirement will be satisfied by giving the third position on the ticket to a woman, but the result of the last election suggests the winnability of a third seat for Labor is doubtful for as long as the existing electoral system remains in place.

• The Courier-Mail reports that“federal Liberal and National MPs unhappy with the performance of Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce” are planning to thwart his succession to the Nationals leadership by drafting Lawrence Springborg, the Queensland Health Minister and former Opposition Leader. This would be achieved by having Springborg succeed Bruce Scott as member for Maranoa, a seat Joyce had his eye on last term as he sought to make his move from the upper house to the lower.

Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Labor internal poll of 600 respondents by UMR Research shows it leading 54-46 in the eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck, held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt on a margin of 4.9%. Primary votes are cited of 40% for Labor and 37% for the Liberals. Aggregated polling for the three months after the budget, from May to July, is reported to show swings to Labor in WA of 12 points on the primary vote and 7.7% on two-party preferred.

• The Financial Review reports results from Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.

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Otiose
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Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Budget2014, #abbott & #JoHo IceBucket Challenge by @moir_alan © http://bit.ly/1vOgPPK

Bushfire Bill
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The question i: “How long can the government keep this up before the punters twig?” [Raising the alarm: Australia’s national terror alert could be overhauled following the latest beheading by the Islamic State EXCLUSIVE SIMON BENSON NATIONAL POLITICAL EDITOR ********** AN overhaul of the nation’s terrorism public alert system is being considered to better warn Australians of the likelihood of an attack on home soil. The move to brace the nation for heightened terrorist threats following the jihadist bloodbath in Iraq came as the world condemned yet another horrific beheading of a US journalist in Iraq. It also came as… Read more »
deblonay
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A Euro site looks at the full extent of the bankruptcy of the Ukraine and the problems looming with unpaid gas/.oil bills owing to Russia,and the unwillingness of the Euroi nations to make the massive loans that will enable Ukraine to avert a major internal social crisis soon

http://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/funding-the-war-that-is-not-a-war-cos-imf-is-prohibited-by-

briefly
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[671 kakuru briefly Russia should withdraw. All the peoples of Eastern Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea would agree that Russia is completely out of line. I agree that Putin is totally out of line. But there is an element of realpolitik to all this. Crimea is already lost, and there is nothing the US or NATO can do about it. The US and NATO (and Kiev) has to pick their battles. How far will they go to keep all of eastern Ukraine in Kiev’s hands? If Putin trades a piece of eastern Ukraine in return for agreeing… Read more »
zoidlord
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Harvard University ‏@Harvard 1m Report shows widening disparities in diet quality between rich and poor in U.S. http://hvrd.me/AZHVZ “These income-related differences in diet quality are likely associated with price (healthy foods generally cost more) and access (low-income people may have limited access to stores that sell healthy foods), the authors wrote. They also noted that education played a role: Dietary quality was lowest and improved more slowly among those who had had 12 years of school or less.” ““The overall improvement in diet quality is encouraging, but the widening gap related to income and education presents a serious challenge to… Read more »
WeWantPaul
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I’m trying to think of an Australian industry that is in the billions of dollars that needs to criminalise non-commercial domestic copyright infringement, behaviours like recording onto a tape recorder a song playing on the radio, for its very survival and I’m not coming up with one.

WeWantPaul
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[And I have already said that my industry – a multi-billion dollar one here in Australia alone – would not exist at all if we did not vigorously protect our intellectual property. What do you find so difficult to understand about that?] I don’t find it at all difficult to understand, I just haven’t seen any evidence for what you claim, in fact my research would suggest you are talking bollocks. But that is why I asked you what industry so we could have a sensible discussion beyond the mindless slogans and stupid policy free conclusions you are so fond… Read more »
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
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Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Bilbo can just pick up one of the signed blank cheques we leave lying around the office all the time.

caf
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On the Crikey platinum expenses card, of course.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Margaret River? I do believe they make excellent cheese to go with their excellent wine. Knock yourself out, Bilbo.

Tom the first and best
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Tom the first and best

810

The UK would still exist if Scotland gained independence. It would likely be called, after its constituent parts, the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The UK would still have citizenship.

I presume from Abbott being born in England (to an English born father and Australian born mother), if he still has UK citizenship, that he would keep UK Citizenship and not gain Scottish Citizenship.

Independence would not occur immediately but after a period of sorting out details.

zoidlord
Guest

I am not amused bemused.

imacca
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[ I believe a by-election fact-finding mission to Margaret River may be in order. ]

Pisspot. 🙂

Edwina StJohn
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Don’t ever lose your youthful enthusiasm zoidy

bemused
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zoidlord@817

@bemused/816

So now your stalking me.

Don’t flatter yourself.

zoidlord
Guest

@bemused/816

So now your stalking me.

bemused
Guest

zoidlord@814

@bemused/813

Still personally attacking me, I see.

Only if you are the word “your”.

swamprat
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I think this is a wonderful effective poster… “soar alba” – a wee butterfly

comment image

zoidlord
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@bemused/813

Still personally attacking me, I see.

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