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Federal Politics 2013-

Sep 22, 2014

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott's personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

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1151 comments

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Otiose
Guest

Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Iraq, #abbott #Obama’s Wingman by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1ohVpDh

briefly
Guest

1148
deblonay

Assuredly, I write a lot of gibberish at times, but post 1147 has nothing to do with me…

deblonay
Guest

Post 1147 Btiefly
_____-_____
What silly stuff you write

why not comment when youy are more sober

What I posted was from a US Business mag and looked at the economic crisis in both Euroland the The Ukr
nothing much to do with Putin..but a lot to do with the collapsing Ukr economy …it all seems beyond your understanding it seems ..all your comments are just silly slogans

geoffrey
Guest

deblonay
sh.. u. you are only peeved there was no war in ukraine and your old mate putin their good resurrected soviet could not overrun the country then start with baltic traitors. keep reading your old crimea travelogues that you used to quote here and go to bed you old rusted on stalinist

swamprat
Guest
Question
Guest

History will be kinder to Gillard than Rudd.

deblonay
Guest
In case you have forgotten about the Ukraine in all the whoha over terrorism_________ ___________ As the first taste of winter cuts in…Ukraine faces a great crisis over the non-payment of it’s Gas Bill to the Russians The Euros now realise what a basket case they have taken on with the collapsing Ukrainian economy and who will pay the gas bill,now that the gas supply has been cut In the East ,a 30 kms demilitarised zone between the Eukr and the Insurgents in”Novorussia” means the insurgents have a virtual statelet with open bordes to Russia,with gas, oil ,food and supplies… Read more »
Question
Guest

1141,

Yes, And largely explains why I ended up preferring Gillard.

Steve777
Guest

eg “we need to be very careful in winding back our rights and freedoms, lest it look like a retreat from the values we are defending

Absolutely. Shorten could and should use those exact words. It will also tend to push Abbott, Brandis et al to make the case for their changes. Not that they will, they’ll just bluster loudly that their’s is the only way. But at least Shorten would sound like a voice of reason.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1138

2007 was a bit of a drover`s dog election.

deblonay
Guest

For the fans of “Borgen” easily the best political drama ever…an interesting interview with one of the principals..the beautiuful journo (and friend of the Danish PM Nyborg) ..Brigit Sorensen

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/9776569/The-Borgen-supremacy-Birgitte-Hjort-Sorensen-interview.html

great series

lefty e
Guest
[Labor should try to knock some of the edges off the worst aspects of tge latest terror legislation then do its utmost to change the conversation back to jobs, health, education, Medicare, jobs, jobs…] I agree. HAving neutered Abbott quite effectively of the type of natural advnatgae PMs get in this situation by being broadly supportive, its now time to set up a more sensible counter-narrative eg “we need to be very careful in winding back our rights and freedoms, lest it look like a retreat from the values we are defending”. That’ll knock Abbott over in a trice. He’s… Read more »
Question
Guest

I liked Rudd, he defeated Howard, but I am in the Gillard camp.

Steve777
Guest

I suppose the terrorists will have to compete with football over the next couple of weeks.

zoidlord
Guest

Stanford University ‏@Stanford 2m

Stanford and @Harvard presidents in joint op-ed: Universities must step up to combat climate change. http://stanford.io/XZuODL #Climate2014

Night all.

lefty e
Guest

[And in a region steeped in scepticism, with good reason, the words of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, while attending the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, will be cheered by many: “Is it not paradoxical that a country says it wants to fight a terrorist group in Syria, but on the other hand creates armed terrorist groups to fight [that same country’s] central government?”]

Welcome to the sort of incoherent shit we’re involved in.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/barack-obamas-arab-alliance-a-fragile-affair-in-a-region-cynical-of-us-intent-20140924-10lcrz.html#ixzz3EEyAljfN

Steve777
Guest

Roll on next week? It’ll be wall to wall terrorists.

Labor should try to knock some of the edges off the worst aspects of tge latest terror legislation then do its utmost to change the conversation back to jobs, health, education, Medicare, jobs, jobs…

lefty e
Guest

I guess Gillard’s book was inevitable, but boy has it made for a tedious return to some events best forgotten.

Roll on next week when everyone forgets it again.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Fess

[It’s a total wreck the joint move. And that should tell you everything you need to know about Kevin Rudd.]

We learned all we needed well before his second brief term, but for any sticklers, that effort ought to have sufficed.

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