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Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September

Newspoll has given us its regularly quarterly insight into how its last three months of polling have broken down according to state, gender and age group.

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The Australian has published its regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by (mainland) state, gender and age group, from its combined polling over the period of July to September. With this big infusion of state-level data, later this week I will publish the BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown, featuring state-level primary vote numbers and polling trend charts (you can see the previous effort from the end of June here). Also later today should be the regularly weekly Essential Research poll.

In case you missed it, yesterday’s Roy Morgan gave the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was down from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the 2013 election. The Greens were steady at 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research – Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 4%, two-party 52-48 to Labor. A suite of questions on major government decisions over the past year turn in predictable responses, with turning back the boats, freezing foreign aid and dumping the carbon tax strongly approved of, and pretty much anything involving the budget disapproved of. The only neutral responses were for military aid to Iraq and dumping the mining tax. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated the economy well managed, against 28% for poorly. Respondents were most concerned about cost of living issues, and least concerned about national debt and the budget deficit. Other questions find an even balance between those who think income tax too high (42%) and about right (40%); more favouring less services and lower taxes (28%) than the opposite (19%), but with 35% preferring the current balance; and 59% thinking it would be good for the economy if corporations paid more tax, versus 17% for bad.

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