After a promising result for the Newman government in the July-September quarterly Newspoll result, the Sunday Mail today carries a ReachTEL poll which contradicts its finding that Liberal National Party support is on an upswing. The automated phone poll of 1471 respondents showed essentially no change for the two major parties on the primary vote since the last such poll a month ago, with the LNP down 0.3% to 40.9% and Labor up 0.6% to 36.6%. However, Palmer United maintain a downward trend to record 7.2%, its monthly progress since July having been from 15.4% to 12.6% to 9.5% to 7.2%. The report provides no result for the Greens, who were on 6.0% last time (UPDATE: PinkyOz in comments passes on from the hard copy that it’s 7.6%). Two-party preferred is unchanged, the LNP maintaining its lead of 51-49 (compared with 54-46 from Newspoll).

Even more interestingly, the Cairns Post has ReachTEL results from the four seats on the paper’s home turf, encompassing 1709 respondents in Cairns, Barron River, Cook and Mulgrave. Taken together, the results show the LNP on 35.7% (down 3.8% on the 2012 election), Labor on 34.4% (up 3.9%), the Greens on 7.9% (up 1.6%), Katter’s Australian Party on 8.3% (down 7.9%) and Palmer United on 7.9%. With Barron River, Cairns and Cook respectively held by the LNP by margins of 9.5%, 8.8% and 3.4%, each of the three having been lost by Labor in 2012, that suggests the LNP would be seriously troubled only in Cook. However, the individual seat breakdowns in fact show Barron River to be the most endangered, although the margin of error here would be around 5%. Curtis Pitt’s seat of Mulgrave was one of only seven won by Labor at the election, and the poll offers no indication that that’s about to change.

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