Today’s Sunday Herald-Sun carries two electorate-level polls by Galaxy, which I presume to be automated phone polls, one of which is by some distance the Liberals’ best poll of the campaign:

• A poll of 706 respondents in Bentleigh, one of the crucial “sandbelt” marginals and the decisive seat in the Coalition’s 2010 election victory, has the Liberals leading 52-48, compared with their existing margin of 0.9%. The primary votes are 48% for Liberal incumbent Elizabeth Miller (compared with 47.2% in 2010), 35% for Labor candidate Nick Staikos (38.5%) and 11% for the Greens (unchanged), with Denis Napthine holding a 49-28 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier.

• It’s a different story in Buninyong, hitherto known as Ballarat East, where a poll of 527 respondents has Labor’s 1.6% margin opening out to a two-party lead of 54-46. The primary votes are 40% for Labor incumbent Geoff Howard (40.9% in 2010), 37% for Liberal candidate Ben Taylor (42.5% in 2010), 6% for the Nationals (who didn’t run last time) and 13% for the Greens (11.3% in 2010). Here Napthine and Andrews were tied at 38-38 all on preferred premier.

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