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Queensland Politics

Jan 3, 2015

Newspoll: 50-50 in Queensland

As the state election looms ever closer, polling continues to find Campbell Newman's government struggling to keep its head above water.

Next off the Newspoll state voting intention rank (and presumably the last there is, Victoria being redundant) is the October-December result for Queensland, and it adds to a broader polling picture of the Liberal National Party being in an alarmingly weak position even as the election looms into view (the talk being late February). The poll has the LNP and Labor tied on two-party preferred, ending a volatile sequence of polling for the year which started with the LNP leading 52-48 in January-March, than had Labor seizing the lead for the first time by 51-49 in April-June, and then put the LNP in front by 54-46 in August-September.

On the primary vote – particularly important given Queensland’s optional preferential system and high exhaustion rate – Labor has gained four points to reach 36%, the LNP is off two to 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. The 17% support for other parties threatens to make life unpredictable, despite the fact that it has reflected the decline of Palmer United by dropping nine points since April-June, and two since July-September.

Despite the headline numbers, the personal ratings are slightly better for Campbell Newman this time: he’s up three on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 51%, and his lead as preferred premier is out from 41-35 to 44-35. Annastacia Palaszczuk also scores slightly better ratings this time, with approval up two to 38% and disapproval down two to 34%.

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43 comments

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Martin B
Guest

I mean, really. Palaszczuk could walk down to the Queen St mall at lunchtime have a quick whip-around and end up with a better ministry than the turkeys that have been running the Qld LNP.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

If Palaszczuk manages to pull a rabbit out of a hat and win this election, she will absolutely deserve the unwavering loyalty of her fellow Labor MPs for at least a whole term of office.

I doubt she’ll get it though.

Rebecca
Guest

Well said. Trying someone like Dick from outside of parliament would have been a disaster of spectacular proportions, and Palaszczuk is capable in much the same way that Daniel Andrews was.

I really hope she wins this time because you know someone like Dick will knife her the second she’s got competition on the parliamentary benches.

TPOF
Guest

Socrates @ 28

“Amazing to hear a change in leadership was even contemplated by the Labor heavies (I won’t call them a brains trust) in Qld”

I though ‘brains trust’ was quite apposite for that group. As in ‘we have to trust they have some brains between them because there certainly isn’t any evidence’.

Rebecca
Guest

What am I thinking, not Minns, I’m getting my states mixed up. Point remains.

fredex
Guest

IF the election is on I presume Shorten will make an appearance or 2.
His netsats in Qld the last 3 Newspoll quarters have been -12,-6,-5

Will Abbott make an appearance, will he be invited?
His last 3 netsats in Qld have been -19,-19,-15.

Rebecca
Guest

Smart move from Newman. Probably his best play in this situation. I had to laugh at the LNP source stating “You might say that, but I couldn’t possibly comment” about a Jan 31 date.

It’ll be interesting to see how much Palaszczuk can get people focused after the holiday period. I think people might be paying more attention than usual just because Newman is so controversial, but whether it’s enough is anybody’s guess.

I think a Palaszczuk ministry would be fine. Every member who is running again except Byrne (who I know nothing about) is ministerial material. That’s seven. Then there’s the seven running again who lost last time, who could all be ministers. That’s fourteen. There’s Furner, who doesn’t seem hopeless. Fifteen. Add some of their more highly touted candidates – Minns, Enoch, and others. You’ve got a ministry there without much of a stretch at all.

Socrates
Guest

That rumour has spread to the ABC website too.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-05/queensland-premier-expected-to-call-snap-election/6001476

Talk of a snap election reminds me of those skits with the ventriloquist holding the Charlie McCartney doll. Charley aims a gun at the ventriloquist’s head and says “surrender or the dummy gets it”. On current polls, Campbell is the ventriloquist.

Why would you plan a snap election when you are going backward in the polls and already 50/50? Obviously, you fear it will get worse. The forthcoming deficit and jobs figures for Qld must be pretty awful, if the LNP would rather face an election now than wait till they are out to debate in parliament.

teh_drewski
Guest

Presumably Labor will put up enough old hands in seats to get a reasonably experienced front bench in place.

Interesting strategy from Newman – going before things get worse?

David
Guest

Put you’re seat-belts on, the rumor going around is Campbell Newman is going to call a snap election for the January 31st!!!

It's Time
Guest

[Also, “How many of your current shadow cabinet will become ministers in a Labor govt?” Whether they win or not, they’ll have to get used to having a backbench again.]
There’s more Ministerial seats available than Labor members at the moment so every child wins a prize. Even if a couple of existing members were dropped to the backbench, the large number of new bloods would start off loyal to the leader who got them into power or at least front bench opposition seats.

It's Time
Guest

The Curious snail reports that Newman will announce the election date tomorrow. Sounds like Newman is trying to sneak through an election campaign before people have recovered from xmas and started paying attention again.

A huge number of seats will revert to their traditional Labor heritage but will there be enough? The perennial suspicion of many voters in metropolitan areas that voting Lib could give them a Nat Premier will be an Achilles heel for the LNP with the Lib figurehead being in real danger of losing his seat. Voting for Newman and getting Sweeney for Premier may be too big a risk for many centrist voters.

Bird of paradox
Guest

[ Or, “Ms Opposition Leader, if you should win Government how many of your Cabinet will be newly-elected first-time MPs?” ]

Also, “How many of your current shadow cabinet will become ministers in a Labor govt?” Whether they win or not, they’ll have to get used to having a backbench again.

bemused
Guest

Rates Analyst@29

It will be fun to watch the media questioning. There are going to be very legitimate questions that should be asked.

Like, “Mr Premier, if the LNP is returned but you lose your seat, who will become the Premier?”

Or, “Ms Opposition Leader, if you should win Government how many of your Cabinet will be newly-elected first-time MPs?”

How hard the media asks these questions might be vital.

I somehow get the impression that the voting public might be a little reticent to vote for the LNP without a clear answer about a Newman-less LNP. “Vote for us and we’ll tell you who’ll be premier next week” is not a compelling slogan.

The question for the LOTO is easy to answer.

The question to the Premier is dynamite. 👿

Rates Analyst
Guest

It will be fun to watch the media questioning. There are going to be very legitimate questions that should be asked.

Like, “Mr Premier, if the LNP is returned but you lose your seat, who will become the Premier?”

Or, “Ms Opposition Leader, if you should win Government how many of your Cabinet will be newly-elected first-time MPs?”

How hard the media asks these questions might be vital.

I somehow get the impression that the voting public might be a little reticent to vote for the LNP without a clear answer about a Newman-less LNP. “Vote for us and we’ll tell you who’ll be premier next week” is not a compelling slogan.

Socrates
Guest

Amazing to hear a change in leadership was even contemplated by the Labor heavies (I won’t call them a brains trust) in Qld. Way too late. Have they learnt nothing from Rudd, Gillard and NSW?

Matt
Guest

Ross @26

Above and beyond that: how would the public view such an act of political bastardry? Newman got away with it because (a) he’s LNP and can rely upon media support 90% of the time, and (b) it was a novel way of doing things.

Ross
Guest

Kevin 24, t_d 25,

Without labouring the point, the view a few months ago was that Annastacia was condemned by her own success. With the ALP being surprisingly competitive, some felt she was too inexperienced and would be swamped in an election campaign by the LNP’s millions, plus the incumbency factor. Hence the talk of a leader (Dick?) from outside the parliament a la Newman. The idea interested more than a few people of consequence, but I totally agree it would be lunacy to change leaders now. It’s too late. As I explained in 22, the new rules to change leaders make the process too cumbersome.

teh_drewski
Guest

Ross – Labor HQ can thank their lucky stars that the unions prevented them from committing suicide, then.

Why on earth “HQ” would want to start leadershit when Newman’s driving over a cliff is beyond me. What clowns.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-beautiful-one-day-lineball.html
Beautiful One Day, Lineball The Next
Queensland polling roundup and election modelling

Current polling implies a slightly more likely than not hung parliament, LNP need to get their act together.

Oh and if anyone in the ALP was even thinking about rolling Palaszczuk then their membership card should be ripped up for confetti. Total lunacy.

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