The Seven Network reports that the second ReachTEL poll of the Queensland election suggests the tide is going in the Liberal National Party’s direction, which is consistent with what I’ve been able to observe of the campaign. Whereas the first poll on the night of the election announcement had it dead level, this poll has the LNP leading 52-48 from primary votes of 42.0% for the LNP (up 1.7%), 36.7% for Labor (down 1.4%), 8.4% to the Greens (up 0.8%) and 5.2% to Palmer United (down 0.9%). Two-thirds expect the LNP to win, and a question on preferred LNP leader if Campbell Newman loses Ashgrove has Fiona Simpson moving ahead of Lawrence Springborg, with likely nominee Tim Nicholls well down the list.

UPDATE: Full results here. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 1635.

UPDATE 2: For the purposes of illustrating a point I’m making in an article I’m writing for Crikey, I feature below calculations of the LNP’s two-party vote at the federal election transposed on to state election boundaries. In the other two columns are the 2012 state result (asterisk indicating an estimate because no LNP-versus-Labor count was conducted), and what I’ve called “SSD”, or “standardised state difference”. This equals the relevant electorate’s deviation from the mean at the state election, minus the equivalent result for the federal election. So for example, Nanango, Kawana and Burnett were seats where the LNP had relatively stronger results at the state than the federal election; Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave and Kerry Shine in Toowoomba North appear to have been two Labor members who performed particularly well in spite of everything; and Mansfield, ever the bellwether, was bang on the statewide average both times. There have been a few seats where I deemed the state 2PP to be unestimateable (inestimable?), and you might well think there should have been a few more.

Federal State SSD
Albert
59.8%
61.9%
-1.2%
Algester
51.5%
59.1%
4.2%
Ashgrove
56.4%
55.7%
-2.3%
Aspley
57.2%
71.7%
10.6%
Barron River
60.0%
59.5%
-2.6%
Beaudesert
69.0%
77.1%*
8.7%
Brisbane Central
53.0%
54.9%
0.5%
Broadwater
70.2%
61.3%
-10.0%
Buderim
71.3%
76.0%
4.6%
Bulimba
51.5%
50.1%
-4.9%
Bundaberg
58.2%
68.2%
6.6%
Bundamba
38.8%
48.2%
5.0%
Burdekin
61.0%
71.5%*
7.3%
Burleigh
66.2%
61.0%
-7.0%
Burnett
63.8%
76.1%*
10.8%
Cairns
59.9%
58.9%
-4.3%
Callide
72.9%
78.2%*
5.0%
Caloundra
65.8%
71.2%
6.3%
Capalaba
54.0%
53.7%
-3.7%
Chatsworth
57.4%
64.1%
3.4%
Clayfield
60.3%
70.6%
8.0%
Cleveland
63.9%
68.1%
1.4%
Condamine
78.2%
80.9%*
2.9%
Cook
55.1%
53.4%
-6.3%
Coomera
68.4%
73.3%
3.9%
Currumbin
62.7%
70.2%
6.4%
Dalrymple
67.0%
Everton
60.5%
63.2%
-0.2%
Ferny Grove
59.0%
59.5%
-1.6%
Gaven
63.3%
69.1%
3.6%
Gladstone
45.3%
Glass House
64.3%
70.4%
7.3%
Greenslopes
54.4%
52.5%
-4.8%
Gregory
69.8%
75.5%
4.9%
Gympie
69.0%
76.1%*
7.9%
Hervey Bay
64.3%
71.7%
5.4%
Hinchinbrook
73.7%
73.1%*
-2.0%
Inala
36.3%
43.1%
1.3%
Indooroopilly
65.8%
69.5%
3.4%
Ipswich
41.7%
54.2%
8.1%
Ipswich West
49.0%
57.2%
4.3%
Kallangur
54.1%
62.4%
5.4%
Kawana
66.2%
76.3%
11.7%
Keppel
56.0%
56.4%
-2.4%
Lockyer
66.6%
71.3%*
5.5%
Logan
49.0%
54.8%
2.0%
Lytton
50.2%
51.6%
-1.9%
Mackay
55.4%
49.5%
-9.0%
Mansfield
56.3%
61.1%
1.8%
Maroochydore
66.1%
70.9%
4.1%
Maryborough
64.9%
Mermaid Beach
73.6%
76.0%
0.8%
Mirani
55.7%
61.2%
3.2%
Moggill
69.8%
73.9%
3.0%
Morayfield
57.4%
55.6%
-4.9%
Mount Coot-tha
57.5%
55.4%
-2.1%
Mount Isa
69.8%
56.0%*
-15.7%
Mount Ommaney
59.3%
66.5%
4.1%
Mudgeeraba
72.0%
75.9%
2.4%
Mulgrave
59.7%
48.9%
-14.9%
Mundingburra
58.3%
60.2%
-0.9%
Murrumba
51.2%
59.5%
3.0%
Nanango
70.9%
82.8%*
12.0%
Nicklin
64.4%
Noosa
69.1%
77.5%*
8.2%
Nudgee
47.4%
53.1%
1.3%
Pine Rivers
57.3%
63.7%
3.8%
Pumicestone
59.8%
62.1%
-1.0%
Redcliffe
50.2%
60.1%
4.4%
Redlands
63.6%
71.1%
4.5%
Rockhampton
47.8%
46.1%
-5.8%
Sandgate
45.6%
52.9%
2.8%
South Brisbane
44.2%
45.3%
-0.4%
Southern Downs
76.2%
80.1%*
4.5%
Southport
67.5%
64.7%
-4.6%
Springwood
57.9%
65.4%
4.6%
Stafford
54.3%
57.1%
-0.5%
Stretton
50.7%
59.6%
5.3%
Sunnybank
51.5%
60.2%
4.7%
Surfers Paradise
74.5%
79.5%
2.9%
Thuringowa
61.6%
61.3%*
-2.3%
Toowoomba North
67.5%
59.6%
-9.0%
Toowoomba South
68.4%
71.6%
2.4%
Townsville
58.5%
54.8%
-6.0%
Warrego
78.2%
81.0%*
2.2%
Waterford
51.2%
51.0%
-3.9%
Whitsunday
62.8%
60.7%
-4.0%
Woodridge
36.1%
44.2%
4.1%
Yeerongpilly
45.6%
51.4%
3.7%

UPDATE 3: And below are full results for the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which I don’t think have been published. Swings from 2012 election noted in italics.

LNP
ALP
GRN
PUP
LNP 2PP
Sample
Cairns
40
44
8
5
47
610
-3
+17
+1
-11.9
Barron River
43
42
10
5
50
700
-3
+14
+1
-9.5
Mulgrave
31
52
4
5
39
600
-1
+18
-9.9
Greenslopes
36
50
12
41
511
-12
+11
-1
-11.5
Pumicestone
46
40
7
3
52
567
-7
+10
+1
-10.1
Mundingburra
43
44
8
5
49
644
+18
+3
-11.2
Thuringowa
38
42
5
5
48
696
+2
+15
+1
-8.7
Townsville
33
46
10
6
42
611
-6
+17
+2
-12.8
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