James J in comments has the goods on Newspoll, brought to you by tomorrow’s Australian. After contracting from 57-43 to 53-47 in last fortnight’s poll, this one splits the difference at 55-45. The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady), so I think it’s fair to say that rounding has a fair bit to do with the two-point shift on two-party preferred. There is slight improvement for Tony Abbott on personal ratings after two successive diabolical results, with his approval up three to 28% and disapproval down five to 63%. However, Bill Shorten is also back up after a series of weak results, with approval up four to 39% and disapproval down seven to 42%. His lead as preferred prime minister widens from 43-35 to 44-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, from a sample of 1161.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Another stable result for Essential’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40% and everything else unchanged – the Coalition on 40%, Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 2% and two-party preferred on 53-47. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, recording the change since Tony Abbott’s post-Australia Day nadir. His approval is up two to 31% with disapproval down six to 56%, which is still solidly worse than where he was in January. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval to 34% and 39%, and likewise rating solidly lower than two months ago. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is pared back from 39-31 to 37-33.

Further questions find 50% opposed to sending troops to Iraq, with only 36% in support. Questions on tax find respondents believing companies and individuals on high incomes pay too little of it and everyone else pays too much, and that higher tax rates for multinational corporations would be good for the economy.

Still to come this afternoon: the fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS result from Morgan.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Contra Newspoll, Morgan shifts to the Coalition since last fortnight’s result, their primary vote up 1.5% to 39%, with Labor down 2.5% to 38% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is 53.5-46.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively compared with 56-44 and 55-45 last time. The result is unusual for Morgan both in failing to record Labor above the overall trend, and in not having Labor higher on respondent-allocated than previous election preferences. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3182.

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