The Sunday Telegraph has a Galaxy poll giving the Coalition a 54-46 lead, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Further questions find 42% saying electricity privatisation makes them less likely to vote for the Coalition with only 13% going the other way. No detail is provided in the report, but I’m guessing this was run Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of a bit over 800.
We also have from ReachTEL the first three published electorate-level polls of the New South Wales election campaign, with interesting results in each case. The results bear out the recent hype about Ballina (which you can read about here, along with a lengthy review of regional happenings I posted last night), crediting Labor with a 52.2-47.8 lead and a swing of about 27%. However, Labor holds only a negligible 50.8-49.2 in Strathfield, the inner western Sydney seat being contested by Jodi McKay, which Labor would have well and truly had pencilled in. It’s a happier story for Labor in Newtown, a newly created inner city seat with a notional Greens margin of 4.8% over the Liberals, with Labor having run third in 2011. The poll credits Labor’s Penny Sharpe, who seeks to move from the upper house, with a 56.5-43.5 lead over Jenny Leong of the Greens.
The polls appear in today’s Sun-Herald, which has a nice graphic displaying the results. Interestingly, each of the three polls was supplemented by a question on hot-button local issues, and all three got a question on electricity privatisation. The Liberals got a higher rating than Labor on health policy in Strathfield, which Labor targeted this week with a promised $323 million redevelopment of nearby Concord Hospital. The electorate also recorded far the highest support for leasing of the electricity poles and wire network, at 36% compared with 24% for Ballina and 18% in Newtown (respectively outrated by 47%, 59% and 66% opposed). The question is whether this reflects genuinely distinctive local sentiment, or a Liberal-friendly sample.
In Ballina, 43% credited Labor with the better policy on coal seam gas, although a solid 30% favoured the Coalition. In Newtown, 45% rated Labor’s the better policy on WestConnex, compared with 24% for the Coalition.
UPDATE: I’ve updated the poll tracker on the sidebar with the Galaxy result, and also included a few earlier Morgan SMS polls that had escaped my net the first time around. I’ve also smartened up the seat allocation model by basing it on primary votes and applying the preference distributions that were published in the last ReachTEL. This has meant jettisoning the Ipsos respondent-allocated preference results, which were more favourable to Labor. For all that, the seat projection is unchanged on both two-party methods, although the Coalition has picked up on voting intention.