Morgan had one of its SMS polls yesterday, and it had the Coalition with a two-party lead of 56-44, up from 55.5-44.5 in the previous week’s poll. Both parties were down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 45.5% and Labor to 32.5%, while the Greens were up half a point to 12%. The poll was conducted from Saturday to Monday with a sample of 1211. Adding that to the poll tracker featured on the sidebar contributes to what’s now an observable uptick for the Coalition, although it hasn’t made any difference to the seat projection.

Some further campaign factoids:

James Robertson of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor “believes it will win” in Ballina. Some account of the feel of the local campaign is offered by Ean Higgins of The Australian:

On the front page of Thursday’s edition of the Byron Shire News, the Greens candidate for Ballina, Tamara Smith, had an advertisement with just one message: “Only the Greens will ban coal-seam gas mining across all of NSW.” On page seven, Labor had a full-page, one-message advertisement: “Labor’s policy is to BAN coal-seam gas mining from our region … the National Party’s gas plan is about expanding harmful CSG mining, not stopping it.” On page nine, Ballina Nationals candidate Kris Beavis – chosen by his party to replace MP Don Page, who is retiring after 27 years in the seat – had his one-message advertisement, under the headline “Actions, not words, on CSG.” Mr Beavis’s ad had two maps of the electorate, one showing Ballina almost completely covered with CSG exploration licences issued by the previous Labor government, and one showing the electorate almost totally free of them under a Coalition government today. The Beavis advertisement goes to the issue driving Nationals strategists spare: it was Labor that welcomed in CSG exploration, and it was the Coalition that has mostly bought back or suspended the licences over its four years in government. But the message is just not getting through to voters …

• The Australian’s report further relates that “after Ballina, the seat thought most likely to change hands is Lismore, where Labor and the Greens are mounting spirited campaigns against incumbent Nationals MP Thomas George. Private polling suggests Greens candidate Adam Guise may have a slightly better chance of taking the seat than Labor’s Isaac Smith.” It presumably follows that the Nationals are better placed in Tweed, the region’s other swing seat.

• Today’s Daily Telegraph front page lead runs “Kamikaze Kelly” to match a Photoshop job on former federal Liberal MP Jackie Kelly, who is directing preferences to Labor in her independent bid for Penrith. Kelly’s concern in running is her opposition to the proposed new airport at Badgerys Creek, to which Labor at least proposes to attach more strings than the Baird government, with a requirement that the developer build two train connections to the airport and keeping open the possibility that a curfew might operate. By way of spelling out where Kelly has gone wrong, the Telegraph’s editorial states: “Loyalty is a great and rare quality in politics. Prime Minister Tony Abbott sets a brilliant example, standing by colleagues and constituents through all types of conflicts.” In other Penrith news, Mike Baird targeted Penrith and the Blue Mountains as first cab off the rank for the policy to roll out the National Disability Insurance Scheme a year ahead of schedule, which was unveiled at Sunday’s campaign launch.

• Reporting on Galaxy’s Coogee poll on Monday, Andrew Clennell of the Daily Telegraph related there was “talk, too, the Libs can hold onto Granville and Oatley, despite their margins being 3.8 per cent each”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): As in Queensland, Essential Research has bundled together state voting intention results from the regular polling it conducted during the campaign period. The result is slightly more useful than its Queensland counterpart in that the bigger samples from the state allow it to limit it to the last two weeks, but that still leaves it with a sample of 659. In any case, the results offer no surprises, with the Coalition on 44% of the primary vote, Labor on 36% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2 (Lonergan): The Guardian has a second Lonergan automated phone poll for the campaign, this one with a heavy-duty sample of 3215, and the news here for the Coalition is even better: a 57-43 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 47% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. Mike Baird holds a 52-25 lead as preferred premier, and there are numerous further questions on electricity privatisation and other campaign issues.

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