The final Galaxy poll of the campaign, courtesy of the Daily Telegraph, lands bang on trend in having the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 55-45, up from 54-46 in its last poll a week earlier. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition (steady), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (up one), and Mike Baird’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 49-24 to 53-25. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday evenings from a sample of 1300. The results have been added to the poll tracker on the sidebar and it’s made a slight addition to the late-campaign Coalition uptick, boosting them by one on the previous-election preferences seat projection and two on respondent-allocated preferences.

Today’s news reports point to two dark horses coming down the home strait:

James Robertson of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a claim by Labor that “new polling shows it within a whisker of defeating Planning Minister Pru Goward in the seat of Goulburn”. The source is quoted saying: “We’re on [a two-party-preferred vote of] between 48 and 52. It’s 50-50 depending on preference flow.” The margin in the electorate is 26.8%, but Labor believes that to be a distortion caused by the redistribution. The western end of the heavily redrawn electorate is drawn from the abolished seat of Burrinjuck, where the Coalition stands to lose the substantial personal vote of long-serving Nationals member Katrina Hodgkinson. Unlikely as the prospect may nonetheless sound, Labor has enough belief in it to have sent Luke Foley to the electorate yesterday to promise $270 million in funding for a new hospital.

Andrew Clennell of The Daily Telegraph reports that Labor sources say the party “did not even expect to win East Hills, which is held by the Liberals by just 0.2 per cent”.

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