South-West Coast

Swing 2PP
Rodney Van de Hoef 1.8%
Roma Britnell (Liberal) 39.7% -22.4% 57.4%
Roy Reekie 17.2%
Jim Doukas (Country Party) 10.4% +9.4%
Michael Neoh (Nationals) 13.7% 42.6%
Pete Smith 1.9% +1.0%
Thomas Campbell (Greens) 7.9% -1.3%
Swampy Marsh 3.0%
Jennifer Gamble (Animal Justice) 1.3%
Lillian Len (Australian Christians) 1.5%
Michael McCluskey 1.5% -0.2%
TOTAL 30344 17080
Booths (out of 34) 34 34
Counted (% of enrolment) 71.0% 37.7%

Polwarth

Swing 2PP
Joe Miles (Greens) 17.1% +6.2%
Carmel Kavanagh (DLP) 7.9%
Melinda Cass (Country Party) 6.1% +0.8%
David O’Brien (Nationals) 12.7% 35.5%
Brendan Eckel 0.9%
Meredith Anne Doig (Sex Party) 6.7%
Richard Riordan (Liberal) 47.1% -8.6% 64.5%
Geoff Rogers (Australian Christians) 1.6% +0.8%
TOTAL 23009 20397
Booths (out of 41) 41 39
Counted (% of enrolment) 55.6% 46.5%

9.50pm. Roma Britnell has been substantially boosted by early vote, 44.1% of which went her way.

8.38pm. All booths have now reported on the primary vote, with a few outstanding on two-party preferred – not that that matters, given the Nationals are running third in both seats.

7.51pm. Jim Doukas has faded in recent counting, with Roy Reekie now well clear in second place. If he drops out before the Nationals, his preferences might put Michael Neoh ahead of Roy Reekie, but we know from the notional two-party count that the preferences aren’t there for him to overtake the Liberals. If the Nationals drop out before Doukas, Nationals preferences will presumably move straight to the Liberals as per the how-to-vote card, and won’t be there to help Doukas get ahead of Reekie. That would leave Reekie needing about 70% of preferences to favour him over the Liberals, which presumably won’t happen.

7.40pm. The Liberal primary vote in South-West Coast has improved a little, but remains soft. But presumably the only candidate who could find the preferences to overhaul it would be Jim Doukas. The Nationals probably won’t make it to second, and it’s a known known that they are only getting a 57.4-42.6 preference split over the Liberals when they do. Roy Reekie or Jim Doukas will need more like 70% to 75%.

7.32pm. Jim Doukas could win if he finished second and got around 70% of preferences.

7.30pm. New booths include a fourth of the Warrnambool seven, but they aren’t transforming Michael Neoh’s situation, which is that he’s playing for second place against proxy Labor candidate Roy Reekie and a strongly performing Jim Doukas of the Australian Country Party, as the Country Alliance has cutely renamed itself.

7.22pm. The South West Coast count is bouncing around a bit because we’ve had rural booths first, now a mixture, and later it will be the larger centres dominating. Whereas Polwarth’s booths are all similarly sized, so it’s regional peculiarities aren’t coming through in the count. Michael Neoh has moved back further with the most recently added booths from South West Coast, which mostly tells us that none of them were from Warrnambool.

7.18pm. Three of the eight Warrnambool booths are in now for South-West Coast, and the Liberal vote has come down pretty hard, with Michael Neoh as expected improving — but he’s still third behind Labor-identifying independent Roy Reekie, and so far his preference flow is only slightly higher than the Liberals (52.8-47.2).

7.09pm. The Nationals aren’t even coming second in either seat, although Warrnambool booths might put them ahead in South-West Coast. The Greens are second in Polwarth, having nearly won the Anglesea booth, and actually won Deans Marsh and Lavers Hill.

7.01pm. Primary vote booths have now reported in double figures, and the Liberals are on around 50% with the Nationals polling poorly – although presumably Michael Neoh will pick up in South-West Coast when numbers report from Warrnambool, where he is mayor. Clearly no sign of a boilover though.

6.54pm. Those two-party projections I was talking about are looking a bit screwy, so I think I’ll hold off on them for the time being. Both electorates have five booths on the primary and three on two-party, and the Nationals are getting 56.8% of preferences in South-West Coast and 61.1% in Polwarth.

6.50pm. Results coming in at a bit of a clip now, including a two-party result from South-West Coast, with no indication that the Nationals are performing strongly enough to pose a threat to the Liberals.

6.39pm. Second booth in from Polwarth, and it’s a stronger result for the Liberals.

6.38pm. Second booth in from South-West Coast, and another strong result for Liberal candidate Roma Britnell.

6.35pm. One booth in from each seat, with encouraging results for the Liberals in South-West Coast but shakier ones in Polwarth, albeit off extremely small numbers so far. A projection will appear in the right column when I get some two-party counts to play with. This will be calculated by applying a booth-matched swing to the total Liberal Party votes from 2014, and then splitting up preferences between the Liberals and Nationals based on how they have divided in such booths that have reported two-party results. I do have my doubts about this, in that the swing against the Liberals could well be biggest in early-reporting small booths which are stronger for the Nationals. But we’ll see how we go.

6.25pm. Welcome to live coverage of the South-West Coast and Polwarth count, first results for which should be along very shortly. I’ll have tables up with somewhat experimental Liberal-versus-Nationals projections when there are numbers to report.

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