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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 16, 2016

BludgerTrack quarterly, and other stories

Quarterly poll aggregate breakdowns, state polling from Essential Research, and extensive accounts of preselection friction emerging from the factional warfare engulfing the Liberal Party in New South Wales.

I have published a new seat of detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack, which points to next to no regional variation in the shift to the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch, with the possible exception of it being particularly pronounced in Victoria.

Essential Research will resume its publication of weekly federal polling numbers next week – in the meantime, it has treated us to state voting intention results. These are aggregated from Essential’s polling from October through to December, with samples ranging from 797 in South Australia to 3205 in New South Wales, and follow on from a recent state polling onslaught from Newspoll, which you can read all about in the entries below this one. Essential’s results in New South Wales and Victoria aligned very closely with Newspoll, with the Coalition leading 56-44 in the former and Labor leading 53-47 in the latter. However, Labor was credited with a 54-46 lead in South Australia, compared with 51-49 in Newspoll, but was level with the Liberal National Party in Queensland, where Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48. The biggest disrepancy was from Western Australia, where Newspoll had Labor surging to a lead of 53-47, but Essential has the Liberal-National government with its nose in front, by 51-49. For more on the situation in Western Australia, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday.

In preselection news, the finalisation of the redistribution process, together with the determination of an increasingly ascendant moderate faction to flex its muscles, is making life extremely interesting for the Liberal Party in New South Wales (as detailed in another of my paywalled articles in Crikey). As well as the threat posed to factional conservative Craig Kelly in Hughes, which was covered here last week, the following brush fires are breaking out, or threatening to:

• Most contentiously, moderates are talking up the prospect that Hume MP Angus Taylor will come under challenge from Russell Matheson, member for the neighbouring seat of Macarthur. The redistribution will transfer the Sydney fringe centre of Camden from Macarthur to Hume, and push Macarthur northwards into Labor-voting suburbs, cutting its margin from 11.3% to 3.3%. Camden is a power base of a local faction identified as the “southern cartel”, which includes Matheson and Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell. It had earlier been part of the Right, but recently shifted allegiance to the moderates, and its presence with Hume has weakened Taylor’s position, despite him having a considerably greater reputation as a rising talent than Matheson. There were suggestions that Taylor might react to such a challenge by joining the Nationals, but he rejected the notion yesterday. Even before talk of a challenge, Taylor had expressed his displeasure with the redistribution, which makes the electorate considerably less rural in character.

• Another member in the moderates’ sights is Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, a Senator and ideological warrior of the Right. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that the moderates are “absolutely” confident they could see Fierravanti-Wells make way for Richard Shields, “a former deputy state director and head of government relations for the Insurance Council of Australia”.

• Should she choose not to retire, Bronwyn Bishop is set to face a challenge in Mackellar from Jason Falinski, a long-standing moderate operative who has worked for John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull, and been state president of the Australian Republican Movement. However, Sarah Martin’s report in The Australian says state upper house MP Natasha McLaren-Jones might be another challenger, which is a bit hard to process given that her husband, Damien Jones, is Bishop’s chief-of-staff and has sometimes been mentioned as her favoured successor. Another potential candidate is said to be Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and challenged Bishop for preselection unsuccessfully before the 2013 election.

• Also likely to face preselection challenges if they don’t retire are Philip Ruddock, in Berowra, and Senator Bill Heffernan. Sarah Martin reports that Heffernan is under pressure to make way for Hollie Hughes, the party’s country vice-president. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is expected to recontest Warringah.

• Gilmore MP Ann Sudmalis faces a challenge from Grant Schultz, son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, but is “expected to survive”.

Meanwhile, south of the border:

Royce Millar of The Age reports on a big field of potential contestants for Liberal preselection in the south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Bruce Billson. Included are Paul Peulich, mayor of Kingston and son of veteran state MP Inga Peulich; Donna Bauer, who held the marginal bayside seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014; Peter Angelico, founder of Dandenong steel bending company Kazed; Nathan Hersey, a member of Billson’s staff; Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor; Matt Berry, a former staffer to troublesome state Frankston MP Geoff Shaw; and Chris Crewther, who ran for the Nationals-held seat of Mallee in 2013 and now runs a consultancy in Frankston.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is sorting out a replacement for Senator Michael Ronaldson, who is quitting politics after being demoted to the back bench by Malcolm Turnbull, along with the order of its Senate ticket. Richard Willingham of Fairfax reports that candidates for the vacancy include James Paterson, deputy director of the Institute of Public Affairs, and Sean Armistead, a manager at Crown Casino and the Liberals’ unsuccessful candidate for Frankston at the 2014 state election. It appears that whoever gets the gig would have to contest a half-Senate election from the dicey number three position, since support is building for Jane Hume, a senior policy adviser for Australian Super who won preselection for the position last year, to be promoted to the top spot. The second position on the ticket is reserved for the Nationals, whose member is Bridget McKenzie.

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1772 comments

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Nicholas
Guest

As to why the pack has moved, the reasons are complex. Globalisation, decline of big unionised industries and hence unios, more self-employment. It also ‘helps’ that the Right control most of the mainstream media.

Another reason is that Labor has moved a long way to the right since the late 1970s.

CTar1
Guest

It’s interesting that the Lib/Nat voters are more in favour of Clinton for next US President than Labour voters are.

zoidlord
Guest

Paul Karp ‏@Paul_Karp 39s39 seconds ago

Paul Karp Retweeted David Marin-Guzman

Mamak caught underpaying foreign workers. Great work from @dmaguz of @WorkforceTR #ausunions #ausbiz

phoenixRED
Guest
A eulogy to ‘The Bolt Report’ By James Colley 19 Jan 2016 – 1:03 PM Everyone has a Sunday morning tradition. For some, it’s a trip to church. For others, it’s as simple as a glass of orange juice and some toast. Others still have to go to work to afford the rest of us the luxury of rest. Of these workers, one always stood above the rest. Andrew Bolt. A man who would generously give of his own Sunday to shout crazy things for an hour. A man so committed to the beauty of the Sunday ritual that he’d… Read more »
antonbruckner11
Guest

Scott Bales – I’ve always been of the view that Malcolm blew it in the first month when he sat around with his finger up his bum and did nothing. We shall see.

Airlines
Guest

PUP went up! To 2%! It’s a miracle!

Voice Endeavour
Guest

Pretty big change there for net sat on Essential.

Taking approve as +1, strongly approve as +2, disapprove of -1, Turnbull goes from 39 to 26, Shorten goes from -37 to -35. Difference goes from 76 to 61 – a 20% reduction.

Still a long way to go, but the electorate is starting to realise they have been tricked.

antonbruckner11
Guest

I’ve got a theory that every vote Malcolm loses will be very difficult to win back. Tones used up Malcolm’s first life. The electorate has high expectations. And so far this year, the trend is labor’s friend. We shall see.

phoenixRED
Guest
[ imacca Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2016 at 2:04 pm | Permalink Had a look at this vid. Nice down in the weeds flight in an AH64. http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/watch-this-ah-64-apache-crew-charge-around-below-the-tr-1753609243 One thing i noticed after a while though is that the gunner has “Infidel” plastered on the back of his helmet?? Possibly not useful apparel if you were shot down anywhere in the ME. ] Almost as bad as Kenneth Daniel Williams – of the WW2 USAAF 351st Bomb Group – who was shot down over Germany and was wearing a leather jacket with “MURDER INC” emblazoned on the back. ( a… Read more »
Leroy Lynch
Guest

Essential poll

TPP L/NP 51 (-1) ALP 49 (+1)
Primaries L/NP 44(-1) ALP 35(0) GRN 10(0) PUP 2(+1) OTH 10(+1)

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/essential_report_160119.pdf

Boerwar
Guest

v
But not the safety of witnesses on CI, Nauru and Manus…

victoria
Guest

Repot from yesterday

[A political brawl over laws cracking down on union corruption has been set off before negotiations have even begun, with the government fielding internal calls not to give Labor access to a secret report.

Former Employment Minister Senator Eric Abetz has said he would be “very concerned” if the Labor party could get access to the sixth volume of the royal commission into trade union corruption, which the commissioner Dyson Heydon elected to keep confidential in order to protect the safety of witnesses.]

Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/very-concerned-eric-abetz-wants-inquiry-report-kept-secret-20160117-gm7rjr#ixzz3xen4zvHk
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

imacca
Guest

On the Nick Ross / NBN and his evidence claims. Seems that he is quite active on twitter and that may be the bets place to look for indications that his evidence is getting into the public domain for anyone following this.

Probably also the place where he will catch most abuse if it doesn’t.

https://twitter.com/NickRossTech/with_replies

victoria
Guest

[Federal Politics
Federal Politics – Verified account ‏@PoliticsFairfax

A June rate cut considered a sure thing by the markets. http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/rba-tipped-to-cut-rates-in-june-on-china-woes-low-energy-costs-20160119-gm8thz.html … #auspol
smh.com.au
smh.com.au]

Steve777
Guest

Re DTT @1744: “. I think it is a bit of a comfortable myth that aussies always steer centre.

I think that it’s more a matter of the ‘Centre’ steering to the middle of the pack. Malcolm Fraser was considered radical right when he attained the Prime Ministership, now his erstwhile compadres regard him as practically a Communist.

As to why the pack has moved, the reasons are complex. Globalisation, decline of big unionised industries and hence unios, more self-employment. It also ‘helps’ that the Right control most of the mainstream media.

imacca
Guest

Had a look at this vid. Nice down in the weeds flight in an AH64.

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/watch-this-ah-64-apache-crew-charge-around-below-the-tr-1753609243

One thing i noticed after a while though is that the gunner has “Infidel” plastered on the back of his helmet?? Possibly not useful apparel if you were shot down anywhere in the ME. 🙁

zoidlord
Guest

If this was Labor, it would be labelled as “Backflip”, “Chaos” etc.

iTnews.com.au ‏@iTnews_au 12m12 minutes ago

Brandis gives Pilgrim another three months: Third short appointment as OAIC limps on. http://www.itnews.com.au/news/brandis-gives-pilgrim-another-three-months-413806?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=itnews_autopost

zoidlord
Guest

@TBA/1750

Yeah the world hates women, just like Turnbull and Co.

zoidlord
Guest

Financial Review ‏@FinancialReview 5m5 minutes ago

Malcolm Turnbull has ‘made it clear’ the Nationals will get another cabinet seat. http://bit.ly/1Otkw59 #auspol

Steve777
Guest

Re Lizzie @1723: I understand that the ‘Liberal’ party is the only member of the International Democratic Union (a World federation of conservative political parties) to have ‘Liberal’ as part of its name.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

Thanks Leroy @ 1747

TrueBlueAussie
Guest

German women are just for sex says refugee before sexually assaulting her.

Meanwhile… 2 Transgered German women are abused and told they needed to be stoned to death by the new guests from Africa.

Read more:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3405464/Migrant-sexually-assaulted-25-year-old-victim-telling-German-women-just-sex.html

Meanwhile… 2 Transgered women are abused and told they needed to be stoned to death

Asha Leu
Guest

I think we’ll have to wait for some of the non-Morgan or Essential polls before we can really get a good idea of the state of play right now. I don’t really have much faith in the accuracy of either Morgan or Essential.

The slight drops in Coalition support in both and Turnbull’s personal ratings in Essential are somewhat encouraging, but until we see more it could all easily just be statistical noise.

CTar1
Guest

imacca – Yep. Wollies have no choice with Masters but to cough up on they imperil their grocery operations.

Clive and Dick Smith different and most employees will be stiffed.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Scott – when Esential comes back after a break, its always just the new week in the first poll of the year. Next week will be the start of the rolling average of two weeks.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

From precedent in previous years, does anyone know if Essential’s 51-49 is based on:

Dec 12/13 and Jan 16/17.

Jan 9/10 and Jan 16/17.

Just Jan 16/17.

victoria
Guest

Thanks Leroy for posting Essential results. Tres interesting

imacca
Guest
[ If they can’t make the January payment of the employees contributions it should simply treated as theft. ] It seems to be getting a bit “grey” as to what constitutes a company “stealing” from employees or customers. Given clive Palmers history of “fwark off and sue me you ungrateful bastard” behaviour, the nickel plant thing could get messier. The Dick Smith fallout is also pretty bad with the not honouring gift cards, warranties (have personal experience of that), and apparently not delivering stuff that that was bought online. The Woolies/Masters fallout will be worth keeping an eye on as… Read more »
Airlines
Guest

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-19/joy-burch-stands-down-from-all-cabinet-positions/7097594

[Embattled ACT Labor MLA Joy Burch has announced she is standing down from all of her Cabinet positions, but says she will seek re-election.]

Tom
Guest

51 to 49 and people are only just returning to normality after xmas. With the hit to the pocket because of medicare cuts and pensioners losing income, watch the libs spending the next six months trying to scrabble back up the opinion poll only to find that that their actions are coming back to bite them. The narrowing has begun and it’s all downhill for the libs.

Going to get interesting from now on until the re-election of the ALP by disgruntled twice bitten voters.

Tom.

zoomster
Guest
dtt [We have clearly a 10-15% mob of RW populists..] Firstly, that doesn’t constitute a shift to the right. We’ve had RW populists around forever. My observations – based on election results – is that the figure for these is around 10%, and has been fairly consistently that for decades. [We have a huge influx of migrants from countries from which democracy and certainly not centre type swinging is not the norm at all. Voting patterns of people from China, middle east,and mediterranean countries etc are really not settled or even known. ] You’re trying to have it both ways… Read more »
daretotread
Guest
David I hope you are right, but I feel that there has been a solid shift to the right over my lifetime, as also in the US and to an extent the UK. I think it is a bit of a comfortable mayth that aussies always steer centre. We have clearly a 10-15% mob of RW populists. We have a huge influx of migrants from countries from which democracy and certainly not centre type swinging is not the norm at all. Voting patterns of people from China, middle east,and mediterranean countries etc are really not settled or even known. The… Read more »
dave
Guest
dave
Guest

Another one gone –

[ Glenn Frey dead at 67 ]

antonbruckner11
Guest

[“But Turnbull’s falling approval numbers are no cause for celebration for Labor….”]

Really? It’s turnbull’s numbers that really count, not the Opposition leader’s.

antonbruckner11
Guest

LL – Thanks. Libs down to 51 – 49 and Turnbull’s rating drops 5 per cent (while everyone waits for Turnbull to actually do anything.

Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/19/essential-r-e-s-p-e-c-t-sorely-lacking-for-women-in-the-workplace/ [Essential: R-E-S-P-E-C-T sorely lacking for women in the workplace Cassidy Knowlton | Jan 19, 2016 12:43PM Most Australians think women are not as respected in many fields, today’s Essential Report has found. Women are not as well respected as men in many professions, today’s Essential Report has found. Those polled said men were more respected in building and construction, the military, politics, sport, finance and banking, law, medicine and journalism. Women are more respected in nursing, according to those polled. The only two professions where half of respondents or more said men and women were respected equally were teaching… Read more »
dave
Guest

[ Only if it’s a blue tie TBA. ]

With which abbott very successful hung himself, politically.

antonbruckner11
Guest

CTart – Businesses don’t pay about $2.5 BILLION in Super every year and nobody goes to gaol. Royal Commission now!

antonbruckner11
Guest

The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

John Kenneth Galbraith

CTar1
Guest

imacca/davidwh

[Not paying the compulsory super is bad enough, but not passing on the employees contributions is a different level of contempt altogether.]

If they can’t make the January payment of the employees contributions it should simply treated as theft.

CTar1
Guest

davidwh

[I would think any Liberal/National breakaway would end up going the same way.]

Yep. They’d be a flash in the pan.

zoomster
Guest

Cleese supports the Liberal Democrats, a party which came out of the British Liberal party (which introduced the welfare state) and the Social Democrats (who had split from Labour). Doesn’t sound like he’s moved very far politically at all.

guytaur
Guest

political_alert: #TURC reports should be available to all MPs or none at all: Greens #auspol https://t.co/VKlKn8W1Y6

davidwh
Guest

Imacca it’s still not good that any business hasn’t set aside sufficient cash to cover employee entitlements. Particularly employee own contributions.

The problem is once an administrator gets appointed then any cash goes into a pool and is distributed according to defined preferences. Any secured creditors will make sure they get their chop.

lizzie
Guest
imacca
Guest

[ Imacca October was the last month superannuation contributions were due to be paid under legislation. That’s for any business that elects to pay quarterly as per ATO legislation. The next payment is due late January. ]

Ahh….. Wasnt aware of that. An unfortunate timing thing maybe so not as bad as reported then. Thanks for that.

Overall, still stinks to high heaven though that he’s dragged millions out of the company to fund his vanities and its the employees and taxpayer (through the Feds entitlements payout program) that will be left the losers.

victoria
Guest

[Leroy
Leroy – ‏@Leroy_Lynch

Acting PM Warren Truss has given no indication as to if or when he might retire in a visit to seat of Indi http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/politics/acting-prime-minister-warren-truss-visits-chiltern/story-fnkerdda-1227714413754 … #auspol]

lizzie
Guest

“Republican” and “Liberal” have several different meanings, in different countries. Is Oz the only country where Liberal has taken on the opposite meaning?

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