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Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition; Morgan: 52.5-47.5

Morgan finds serious slippage in support for the Coalition for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became leader, bringing it more closely into line with Essential Research, which continues to find the Coalition with a narrow lead.

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It looks like the only two new federal polls this week are the regular Essential Research and Roy Morgan series, and a solid drop for the Coalition from Roy Morgan brings the two much closer together than they have been since Malcolm Turnbull assumed the prime ministership. Essential is its usual stable self, with the Coalition’s modest two-party lead of 51-49 unchanged on last week. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The voting intention results were derived from online polling conducted over the two previous weeks, from an overall sample of about 2000. From this week’s sample of 1000 only, the poll also offers us Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull steady on 51% approval and up two on disapproval to 27%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 27% approval and up one on disapproval to 48%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has increased from 51-18 to 52-15. Respondents were also asked to register two reasons why the government might wish to reform the tax system, for which the most popular response by some margin was “to address the budget deficit”, which was rated first or second by 58%. Favoured possibilities for revenue raising followed the usual pattern in coming in highest for proposals targeting multinational corporations and high income earners, with a GST increase rating last out of seven listed options. When forced to choose between higher income tax or a higher GST, 37% came down for don’t know.

Morgan’s two-party measures record their first significant movement of the Turnbull era, with the Coalition’s respondent-allocated two-party lead down from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5, and previous election preferences down from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5. Clearly rounding and changed preference flows had a fair bit to do with this, because the primary votes are little changed, with the Coalition steady on 43.5%, Labor up a point to 29%, and the Greens up a point to 16%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the two previous weekends, from a sample of 3072.

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Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

776 & 778

The House of Representatives elected in 2007 did not first sit until the 12th of February 2008 and thus would have expired on the 12th of February 2011 and the election could then have been as late as the 16th of April 2011.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
773 Technically every election for the House of Representative, except 1910 when the House was allowed to expire by the effluxion of time, has been an early election because the House has been dissolved. Defining any of the simultaneous House and half-Senate elections as practically early, other than a House only election held before a half-Senate election can be held, is rather arbitrary, unless the term of the House extended beyond the Senate term or the House was dissolved before a DD was prevented by the 6-month rule. Of the simultaneous House and half-Senate elections, only 1919, 1931, 1934, 1955,… Read more »
shea mcduff
Guest
So someone, probably from within the upper echelons of the Liberal Party, has leaked a photo to journalists knowing it be damaging to her/his party for some sort of personal political advantage whatever that may be, dependent on who the particular person is. Have I got that right? And the journalists are protecting the identity of that person. Because….? Is the person’s action worthy of confidentiality? Or is it a simple case of the journalists making sure they will be in the pipeline for such in similar cases in the future either from this person or persons in general and… Read more »
Rossmore
Guest

Bemused 775. Many of the bureaucrats who pushed TAFE privatisation in VIC under Brumby are now advising the Andrews Gov. The original architect of TAFE privatisation is now a Dep Secretary in Andrews Premier and Cabinet dept. Sad to see a promising VIC ALP State Gov still seduced by Neo-liberalism….

TPOF
Guest
bemused
Guest

TPOF@777

Definitely losing it…. sad really. 😥

bemused
Guest

daretotread@776

Steve
While it would have caused a political screaming match, Gillard could have stayed until March 2016.

Ummm really?

I think you are temporally disoriented. Try March 2011.

TPOF
Guest
David @ 759 First, I don’t care what you vote. Secondly, the whole point of my response was to point out the absurdity of your idiotic bullshit about being the most one-eyed yada yada yada. And then you have the cheek to bleat: [Please don’t try and insult me just because you don’t agree with the point I made.] Jesus wept! But just for you and Bemused and DTT as I toddle off to sleep, let me put it on the record that Kevin Rudd was a dishonourable, treacherous wrecking bastard who would rather see Labor lose power than see… Read more »
daretotread
Guest

Steve
While it would have caused a political screaming match, Gillard could have stayed until March 2016.

bemused
Guest

Rossmore@771
You certainly nailed it.

Brumby was seduced by neo-liberalism as Keating had been earlier. It is poison.

JimmyDoyle
Guest
What in the living f**k was going through Kenny’s head when he wrote this ‘gem’: [Suddenly, the smooth and toboganable brow of the Turnbull government has been furrowed by ministerial crises and resignations.] It sounds as though Kenny’s has contracted Hartcher’s disease – a seriously unhealthy case of hero-worship. To be fair, Kenny’s tries to offer frank advice to his good mate Mal (and I note that the words “crisis” and “besieged” are nowhere to be found), but then he offers this little nugget: Jamie Briggs was forced to resign after a relatively minor indiscretion. Good to know that Kenny… Read more »
Steve777
Guest

Victoria: election 2010 was not ‘due’ until the 3rd anniversary of the 2007 election (November 24). Julia Gillard went in about 3 months early. A date between about the second Saturday in Octoner (after the NRL and AFL Grand Finals) and the second Saturday in December would have been considered to be ‘when due’.

bemused
Guest

David@769

daretotread 766#

Thank you daretoread. It was an early election, I think some people like to be loose with the truth on this board.

Post-modernists. 🙂

Rossmore
Guest
What an utter failure of public policy, this whole privatisation of TAFE has been…http://www.theage.com.au/business/thousands-of-students-caught-up-in-major-college-collapse-20160210-gmqt8x.html The Brumby VIC ALP should hang its head in shame for starting this process. I am still an ALP voter but this was a shocking political decision, no doubt based on seductive promises from the bureaucracy. It highlights too one of the hidden costs of privatisation…. The huge costs of regulation by Government to ensure standards are maintained in the private sector. Prior to privatisation public TAFE was largely and effectively self-regulated with recourse to the central bureaucracy, the Ombudsman, the AAT and MPs providing oversight.… Read more »
Steve777
Guest
Science: you think there may be a black cat in a dark room. You enter the room with a torch to search for it. Religion: your holy book / guru tells you that there is a black cat in the room. You must have faith, you don’t need to enter the room. In fact it would show a deplorable lack of faith and/or be sacrilegious to do so. Politics: there is or there isn’t a black cat in the dark room, whatever best suits your agenda. The actual location of the cat in the room and indeed the existence of… Read more »
David
Guest

daretotread 766#

Thank you daretoread. It was an early election, I think some people like to be loose with the truth on this board.

pedant
Guest

The American political commentators who were calling Senator Rubio robotic a few days ago should have seen our Minister Robert (or is it “Robot”) in Question Time today.

One point that hasn’t attracted much comment is that Dr Parkinson really doesn’t have to feel too constrained by politics in his reporting on Mr Robot. When Mrs Bishop was being referred off to the Department of Finance in July/August last year, everyone seemed to be saying that it would be a whitewash. But Mr Turnbull probably needs Dr Parkinson more than Dr Parkinson needs Mr Turnbull.

daretotread
Guest

Victoria

Yes I assume Gillard would have wanted to avoid the Victorian election, which may have been one reson she went so early.

In hindsight she would have been better to wait until February 2011, but it is easy to be wise after the event.

daretotread
Guest

Victoria

The 2010 election could have been as late as March 2011 so it was held early.

victoria
Guest

Oops before I call it a night. Forgot to mention that Victorian state elections are fixed for every four years and took place in November 2010. Therefore federal election had to take place before then

victoria
Guest

C@t

Also,calling it a night 🙂

victoria
Guest

David

Election in 2010 was due in early September and actually took place late August. Where is this early election you speak of?

bemused
Guest
David@759 TPOF firstly I am a Labor supporter through and through. Secondly your avoiding the issue with remarks ‘anti-Gillard’ and ‘hissy fit’. You suggested Gillard called the election for legitimacy. And I’m correcting you that she didn’t and her judgement for calling an early election was to cash in on a honeymoon period because her advisers thought her polling would drop if she waited till the 3 year term had expired. Please don’t try and insult me just because you don’t agree with the point I made. My point is you were rewriteing history, to support your favored politician. And… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

Night, vic! 🙂

C@tmomma
Guest

Last word,

‘ If Morrison is main culprit, he had better watch out. Abbott will be seeking his revenge.’

That would be a battle to the death worth getting out the popcorn for! 😀

David
Guest
TPOF firstly I am a Labor supporter through and through. Secondly your avoiding the issue with remarks ‘anti-Gillard’ and ‘hissy fit’. You suggested Gillard called the election for legitimacy. And I’m correcting you that she didn’t and her judgement for calling an early election was to cash in on a honeymoon period because her advisers thought her polling would drop if she waited till the 3 year term had expired. Please don’t try and insult me just because you don’t agree with the point I made. My point is you were rewriteing history, to support your favored politician. And your… Read more »
victoria
Guest

Night c@t

C@tmomma
Guest

OK, off to bed for me. Let’s see if Stuart Robert is still there on the Front Bench by this time tomorrow. 🙂

victoria
Guest

Leroy Lynch

The Herald Sun has had a busy week with this saga. 🙂

victoria
Guest

c@tmomma

If Morrison is main culprit, he had better watch out. Abbott will be seeking his revenge

Leroy Lynch
Guest

striking Herald Sun front page tomorrow…

PHOTO BOMBSHELL
https://twitter.com/damonheraldsun/status/697359138981072897

one twitter wag has responded…
https://twitter.com/liamvhogan/status/697363910421323776
[Liam Hogan @liamvhogan
That front page picture ought to have the caption ‘gentlemen: to evil!’ and there is no argument that will convince me a better one exists
9:18 PM – 10 Feb 2016]

Steve777
Guest

Re Don @712: I consider Greg Hunt’s award to be at such a rarified level of “WTF?!” that it is completely beyond satire. First Dog nailed it on another such situation just over a year ago with his comment on “Sir Prince Duke”:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/its-over-its-now-impossible-to-satirise-tony-abbott

C@tmomma
Guest

Rossmore @ 745,

‘ . Every guy in that photo will know who took the photo….but why would Peta leak a photo that paints Abbott in a bad light?’

I just said she probably took the photo. I didn’t say she leaked it. What I do know is that everyone who was there on the night probably got a copy. Hence Morrison is my main suspect.

bemused
Guest

TPOF@748

bemused @ 741

Ideological purity must be preserved!


And I could not think of a better person to do it than you.

Yes, we must expose all renegades and traitors to the PB line.

C@tmomma
Guest

victoria @ 746,

‘ Ellen Whinett who has been reporting on this story said to PVO that he could not be.more wrong suspecting it was Abbott backers…’

Hence, Morrison, with the imprimatur of Turnbull and Bishop,J.

Nicholas
Guest

We Want Paul

It’s telling that your only recourse when confronted with the silliness of your claims is that mainstream misinformation is on your side. You can’t discuss the substance because you don’t understand it. Mainstream opinions have often been discredited as completely wrong. That’s always been a part of historical change. You lack critical thinking skills – that comes across loud and clear.

Leadership involves standing up for truth even when it isn’t mainstream to do so.

TPOF
Guest

bemused @ 741

[Ideological purity must be preserved! :|]

And I could not think of a better person to do it than you.

frednk
Guest

Science- Going into a dark room searching for a black cat.
Religion- Going into a dark room searching for a black cat that doesn’t exist.
Politics- Going into a dark room searching for a black cat that doesn’t exist and declaring “I see it”.

victoria
Guest

Ellen Whinett who has been reporting on this story said to PVO that he could not be.more wrong suspecting it was Abbott backers…

Rossmore
Guest

C@tmomma 743 good point. Every guy in that photo will know who took the photo….but why would Peta leak a photo that paints Abbott in a bad light?

Rossmore
Guest

C@tmomma, Lib implosion seems to be the meme of the day….

C@tmomma
Guest

Rossmore,
I think Peta took the photo because she was there with Abbott minding him. She also doesn’t have a very high opinion of him.

victoria
Guest

C@tmomma

How can this be clearing the decks? Gillard had to contend with The Thomson saga which damaged the govt. What is happening in the current govt is sagas on steriods.

bemused
Guest
TPOF@737 David @ 729 TPOF that is the most one eyed Julia Gillard supporter driven rubbish I have ever read Wow. The anti-Gillard thought police are out in force. Apparently, now it is not enough that we avoid dissing Rudd. We actually have to not say anything about Julia Gillard lest some hysteric throws a hissy fit. Well, my point about Turncoat, which was clearly lost once your anaphylactic reaction to the mention of Julia Gillard’s name took hold, still stands. He has no policies of his own. He only has the discredited policies of the Abbott Liberals to defend… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

Rossmore @ 735,

‘ Wasnt it Morrison whosaid the Robert story was a ‘beat up’ when it surfaced earlier this week…. ‘

Classic diversionary tactic. He didn’t say it wasn’t true, however. 🙂

Rossmore
Guest

My hunch on the Hun photo leaker is a Lib staffer of a junior frontbencher who has a particular interest in Robert being dumped, so his/her boss gets a promotion in the reshuffle. When a party starts imploding like this, it’s survival of the fittest….

C@tmomma
Guest

victoria,
Something Mark Kenny said in his piece to camera accompanying his latest article made me think it is a rather brutal form of clearing the decks for the election.

The Coalition may yet implode as well tho. 😀

TPOF
Guest
David @ 729 [TPOF that is the most one eyed Julia Gillard supporter driven rubbish I have ever read] Wow. The anti-Gillard thought police are out in force. Apparently, now it is not enough that we avoid dissing Rudd. We actually have to not say anything about Julia Gillard lest some hysteric throws a hissy fit. Well, my point about Turncoat, which was clearly lost once your anaphylactic reaction to the mention of Julia Gillard’s name took hold, still stands. He has no policies of his own. He only has the discredited policies of the Abbott Liberals to defend at… Read more »
victoria
Guest

Rossmore

it is a hot mess

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