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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 11, 2016

BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition

A dip in support for the Coalition recorded by Morgan makes its presence felt in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, although the Coalition is still projected as on track to retain its thumping majority from 2013.

A fairly pronounced narrowing in the Coalition’s lead may now be observed on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate charts, thanks mostly to an unusually soft result for the Turnbull government in this week’s Morgan result. This shows up as a 0.6% move to Labor on two-party preferred since last week, but it’s only made a slight difference on the seat projection, which credits the Coalition with a net gain of one seat since the 2013 election despite a 0.4% lower two-party vote. The aggregate also records a lift in support for the Greens, who had had some of the wind taken out of their sails when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The addition of new figures from Essential Research to the leadership ratings results in essentially no change to an overall picture of Turnbull enjoying massive but nonetheless slightly reduced leads over Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister.

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1097 comments

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lizzie
Guest

Last post for the evening.

I found Senator Nash so acid towards Labor on Q&A last Monday that I couldn’t watch it.

Now she is Barnaby’s “whisperer”. Supposed to calm him? Oh yeah?

This evening I see that she was in the group of MPs standing with Tony in front of the Ditch the XXXXX signs.

Figures.

lizzie
Guest

[@janet_rice: It’s becoming pretty clear the #CSIRO cuts were made before the full impacts were understood ]

lizzie
Guest

Something else up for sale?

[The Turnbull government is considering a proposal to sell Australian Hearing to a deaf children’s charity, an international hearing aid manufacturer and a university.

The Royal Institute for Deaf and Blind Children are leading a consortium aiming to buy the government’s hearing services provider. Australian Hearing diagnoses and provides hearing aids to children, older and indigenous Australians and veterans.

Chris Rehn, the Institute’s chief executive officer, said that if successful, they planned to extend Australian Hearing’s services to include cochlear implants for the severely deaf, therapy, education, and rehabilitation services.]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-considering-selling-australian-hearing-20160212-gmsy19.html

Question
Guest

K17, what I did was add up all the party breakdowns. They have a bit where the leadership ratings are shown for voters of each party.

They only do this for LNP, GRN, and ALP, but those alone added up to 25+. Then I figured out what the OTH was in the previous poll (by subtracting the party totals from the headline) and added that proportionally (others had changed from 8 to 9%) to the party totals and got 29.2, exactly 1 transposed digit from 19.2.

lizzie
Guest

[Martin Parkinson concluded that Robert had “acted inconsistently” with the code of ministerial conduct, but accepted the breach was unintended, did not involve Robert receiving financial benefit and did not directly relate to his ministerial duties.

That was the narrow, clinical judgment from a senior public servant. The political judgment was whether Robert’s transgression was a sackable offence – and Turnbull confronted a mountain of evidence this week that it was.

That Robert believed he was acting in a private capacity when he met a Chinese minister and attended a signing ceremony in China in 2014 was beside the point. Naivety, of itself, is not punishable by removal.

…The damage of this affair has not been the loss of a junior minister with a subterranean profile (yes, another one), but the tensions and contradictions inside the government that have been exposed.

What was Barnaby Joyce thinking when, having just been voted in as National Party leader, he defied anyone to tell him what Robert had done wrong on Friday morning?

While Turnbull had no option but to act decisively, he faces three dangers over the short and medium term. The first is that he will have no choice but to sack future transgressors, having made plain that those who stuff up do not get a second chance.

The second is how he manages the tensions within the government that appear to be multi-faceted and are very likely to become entrenched.

The third is a deputy prime minister who doesn’t appear to understand the practicalities of power.]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-dangers-exposed-by-the-sacking-of-robert-20160212-gmsv0c.html

lizzie
Guest

[More than 150,000 Adélie penguins have perished in a single colony in Antarctica after the grounding of a giant iceberg.]

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/giant-iceberg-could-wipe-out-adlie-penguin-colony-at-cape-denison-antarctica-20160212-gmslgx.html

Kevin Bonham
Guest

The 81-19 PPM in the previous ReachTEL should be ignored. It looks like it was a calculation error and there has been no comment addressing the issues raised with it.

Simon Katich
Guest

Yeah, Menton looks nice.

But I figure I can visit Western Europe when I am doddery.

Tom
Guest

MacFarlane didn’t put a value on his watch – just stated he had been given a watch as a gift (see the gift register). Sorry, I don’t believe they didn’t know the true value of the watches one little bit. Nor do I believe that they were in a plastic bag. If they were in a bag, it was made of brown paper and it was handed to them under a table.

Tom

Question
Guest

According to Oakes Bill Shorten will announce a policy to only allow negative gearing on new property. Also to cut the CGT discount to 25% on investor property.

bemused
Guest

daretotread@1066

Actually a read of the story does make the fake watch story a little believable.

You’ve got to be kidding.

Billionaires handing out fake watches?

CTar1
Guest

Bw – I needed help alright. Deliberately ignorant of Paris.

Been there heaps of times but have never taken to it. It’s an OK transit point on the way to Menton and that’s about all.

antonbruckner11
Guest

QUESTION: I thought you did a calculation which indicated they probably put 19 instead of 29 by mistake. Certainly, Doyley pointed out a problem. As I said, I reckon they’re slowly ironing out the problem in two jumps.

victoria
Guest

[Probe into Mal Brough stalls over James Ashby hold-up
http://www.theaustralian.com.au › news-story
18 hours ago – Probe into Mal Brough stalls over James Ashby hold-up. Michael … Michael McKenna. Reporter.]

Question
Guest

K17

Be interesting to have a look at the party breakdowns… I suppose they could have been wrong in the last poll…

antonbruckner11
Guest

Question. So, according to Reachtel Shortie’s rating went from 29 to 19 and then back to 25. Oh, really!

victoria
Guest

it is more than a little ridiculous

[abc730 – Verified account ‏@abc730
Will new @The_Nationals Deputy @SenatorNash make a difference? The so-called ‘Barnaby Whisperer’ joins #abc730 to talk about her new role.
9:47 PM – 11 Feb 2016
4 RETWEETS1 LIKE]

[Reply to @abc730
Replies
BF
1h1 hour ago
BF ‏@FavellB
@abc730 @The_Nationals @SenatorNash why should we accept irrational men in power, who need 2b calmed by a woman? that is actually ridiculous]

Boerwar
Guest

CTaR1
Sorry. Was not around. I see that your question without notice has been answered.

Question
Guest

[QUESTION – Slowly burying the last stuffup!]

A whopping 6 point shift! It won’t be long until #alltalk has his own #libspill 🙂

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