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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 12, 2016

ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition

ReachTEL offers another increment of evidence for a slight loss of honeymoon gloss for the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership.

A ReachTEL poll, which I presume to have been broadcast on the 6pm Seven News, shows the Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 55-45 at the last such poll three weeks ago. Malcolm Turnbull holds a 75-25 on a preferred prime minister question that allows no option for undecided, partly reversing a blowout to 81-19 that raised eyebrows in the previous poll. The poll also finds a remarkably even spread of opinion on Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, with 32% expecting him to be very good or good, 34% expecting him to be average, and 34% expecting him to be poor or very poor. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results on the ReachTEL site here. The primary votes are 48.1% for the Coalition (down 0.4%), 32.8% for Labor (up 1.0%) and 10.1% for the Greens (down 0.7%). The personal ratings find Malcolm Turnbull taking a solid hit, with his net approval rating of plus 15.3% comparing with results of between plus 31.5% and plus 41.4% in ReachTEL’s three previous polls on his watch.

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1235 comments

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Tom
Guest

– From Ghostwhovotes twitter

Tom
Guest

#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (-4) ALP 48 (+4) #auspol

Tom.

bemused
Guest

daretotread@1199

Bemused

I totally accept I am painting the worst case scenario. That is my intention.

However you are living in a bubble. You are stuck in 1988.

Much has changed

The reality is that there is probably a 1% chance of my scary scenario and 99% for yours. So we are agreed.

However I still think it makes sense to point out the 1% risk Just like an OHS matix. Likelihood is very rare but impact catastophic. Still gets into the red or yellow risk zones in anything I do.

Syria (not Russia) is now lobbing shells on Turkey. It is getting messy

I am familiar with Risk Management and when a high risk is identified, it is incumbent on those who can to take remedial action.

Hence the cease fire conference that has just taken place and other diplomatic action. The situation is not being ignored.

CTar1
Guest

SK

[TOF]

Bloody TOF OK as long as it means ‘trainee old fart’ or ‘Tons of fun’. Tracheo Oesophageal Fistula (arm stuck so far up ar#e not so good.

For a tacker you’re showing a scintilla of promise so do what your mum says.

bemused
Guest

CTar1@1151

bemused – Got him. Alan Griffin a pool playing ANU student in around 1980.

You now seem to know more than I ever did.

ratsak
Guest

See that big inflection point in Turnbull’s sats on the left…

That’s real. And it’s about to get more obvious.

ratsak
Guest

See that big inflection point in Turnbull’s sats on the left…

That’s real. And it’s about to get more obvious.

ratsak
Guest

See that big inflection point in Turnbull’s sats on the left…

That’s real. And it’s about to get more obvious.

ratsak
Guest

See that big inflection point in Turnbull’s sats on the left…

That’s real. And it’s about to get more obvious.

Seth
Guest

Great poll! Give it a few more months – government disarray and lack of policy will be a huge contrast to Labor if they can keep doing what they’ve done this week. I think we’ll be in for an interesting election this year.

Simon Katich
Guest

CTar1
Yep. Trainee old fart. TOF. I feel a whipper snapper amongst such company

2 law degrees? explains a couple of things.

ratsak
Guest

[Malcolm Turnbull leadership failure kills reform push]

Leadership failure and Malcolm Turnbull, go together like a horse and carriage…

Leroy Lynch
Guest

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/fairfax-ipsos-poll-support-for-gst-hike-drops-to-37pc-20160213-gmtjzb
[Feb 14 2016 at 7:00 PM Updated 10 mins ago
Fairfax Ipsos poll: Support for GST hike drops to 37pc
by Phillip Coorey

The public’s appetite for a GST increase has nosedived in the wake of the Turnbull government’s decision to abandon touching the rate or base of the tax.

The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll finds that 37 per cent support a GST increase along with compensation for households on incomes under $100,000 a year.

This is a sharp drop from the 52 per cent who supported the tax change when the question was last polled in November last year.

Back then, just 28 per cent supported a GST increase in isolation. But this leapt to 52 per cent when the compensation was factored in. The new level of 37 per cent support mirrors that in the most recent Newspoll.

It finds 57 per cent are opposed, up from 41 per cent in November.

The poll of 1403 voters was conducted from Thursday night to Saturday night last week, after it became apparent the government had junked plans to increase the GST to fund its election-year personal and company income tax cuts.

The government had modelled a scenario in which the 10 per cent GST rate would be increased to 15 per cent and the tax applied to water and sewerage bills.

It found that even if it spent $30 billion of the extra revenue on personal income tax cuts, the growth dividend would be negligible. It did conclude that if the revenue were churned into company tax cuts there would be a significantly higher growth dividend, but the politics of raising prices to consumers to give big business and foreign investors a tax cut would have been too difficult.

The poll found that support for an increased GST with compensation remains highest among Coalition voters, who are split 51 to 43 per cent for and against. Labor voters are divided 26 per cent for the increase and 69 per cent against, while 28 per cent of Greens voters are for the tax increase and 67 per cent against.]

confessions
Guest

[While the result would ensure a Coalition victory should it be replicated on election day, it does represent a swing towards the Opposition since the 2013 election of 1.5 per cent, which could translate into a loss of up to nine Coalition seats.]

Wow indeed!

ratsak
Guest

[Its hard to name an area where he has done any serious or worthwhile policy work while he has been in politics.]

Turnbull’s greatest policy achievement is banning incandescent globes (except for the special shaped ones)

That’s it. That’s as far as this genius has achieved in public life.

– Republic: shown up by the combined intellectual might of Mirrabella (Panopoulos), Cleary, Flint and Abbott. Massive FAIL.
– Murray Darling: knocked up a $10bil joke on the back of a coaster with Howard that Labor had to fix. First move on becoming PM was to give water to the Nats. Massive FAIL.
– NBN: wasted billions and set the nation back a decade or more for now better reason to stay in position to replace Abbott when he flamed out. MASSIVE MASSIVE CRIMINAL FAIL.
– ABC: Reduced funding and destroyed independence. FAIL.
– Media Regulation: He turned and bravely ran away: FAIL.
– Tax: Ran away, away, away oh Brave Sir Robin: FAIL FAIL FAIL.
– SSM: Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about and gallantly he chickened out. FAIL
– Climate Change: Bravely taking to his feet he beat a very brave retreat. DISGRACEFAIL

I suppose you’d back him if you believe in the myth that every loss takes him closer to a win.

Sohar
Guest

I bet Scotty is circling. Mal better watch out.

Sohar
Guest

Yes, only 52-48 for Libs in IPSOS (+4 Labor). IPSOS has a strong Lib bias so very close now.

Player One
Guest

[ IPSOS WOW ]

Very much so. Not only is the honeymoon over, we seem to be into “Buyer’s Remorse” territory.

Gorkay King
Guest

IPSOS WOW

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