Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter

Advertisement

Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 18, 2016

Share

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week mostly splits the difference between a strong result for the government from ReachTEL and a weak one from Ipsos, translating into a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred and a two-point change on the seat projection, with Labor picking up one each in New South Wales and Victoria. The Ipsos poll also furnished one set of leadership ratings for the week, the impact of which on the trend measures is fairly minor.

On top of that, I’ve got an avalanche of new material to treat you with this week, most of which has been hived off to a separate post dealing with preselection news. There are two further poll results I’ve so far neglected to cover:

• This week’s Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now lead 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (steady), Labor 33% (down two) and Greens 11% (steady). Further questions find 28% reporting the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership has been better than expected, 22% worse than expected, and 41% as expected; a very even divide on the issue of babies born to asylum seekers in Australia, with 39% wanting them sent to Nauru and 40% believing they should remain in Australia; 34% believing conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island are good, versus 40% for poor; and 64% disapproving of suggestions the administration and payment of Medicare, pharmaceutical and aged care benefits should be outsourced, with only 17% approving.

• The Galaxy Queensland poll that provided state results for the Courier-Mail on the weekend also had a federal voting intention component, which had the Coalition’s lead in Queensland at 57-43 (unchanged from the 2013 election), from primary votes of Coalition 49% (up 3.3% since the election), Labor 30% (up 0.2%), Greens 10% (up 3.8%) and Palmer United 1% (down 10.0%). The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 869.

Other notable news:

• The federal redistribution process for the Australian Capital Territory was finalised last month, leaving undisturbed the draft proposal from September. The Fraser electorate, which covers the northern part of Canberra, is to be renamed Fenner, with the Canberra electorate continuing to account for the capital’s centre and south, along with the unpopulated areas of the territory’s south. The two seats are respectively held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh. Around 10,000 voters are to be transferred from Fraser to Canberra, leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.

• The process for a redistribution of the Northern Territory and its two federal electorates has commenced, but with a final resolution for the process being scheduled for early next year, the new boundaries will not take effect at the next election.

• The Northern Territory parliament has voted to change the electoral system from compulsory to optional preferential voting, so that voters will be required to do no more than number a single box, as is the case at state elections in New South Wales and Queensland. The bill was passed with the support of cross-bench independents in the face of opposition from Labor.

Advertisement

Advertisement

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

2149 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
frednk
Guest

50/50 someone has got to be having us on. Too late for a DD if it’s true.

Inner Westie
Guest

Abbott and Credlin have leapt out of the jacuzzi.

Abbott (tripping over a box hedge): We’re getting the band back together!

Credlin: Aye aye Captain Bligh!

J341983
Guest

So…

LNP Primary down 3%, Turnbull’s approval down 5, disapproval up 7. Shorten up 3 on approval and down 3 on disapproval.

PPM Turnbull down 4 and Shorten unchanged.

The LNP’s return to earth continues.

Fulvio Sammut
Guest

PvO is more likely to be crying Ow! Ow! Ow!

C@tmomma
Guest

Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef 3m3 minutes ago

Mark Di Stefano Retweeted Troy Bramston
Troy Bramston Verified account
‏@TroyBramston

#Newspoll 2PP: L/NP 50% ALP 50% Primary: L/NP 43% ALP 35% Preferred PM: Turnbull 55% Shorten 21% @australian #auspol

*whispers into shirt cuff*
ahhhh it’s on.

😀

poroti
Guest

confessions

[
Newspoll wow!!]
And not a PvO ‘WOW’ ! 🙂

Trog Sorrenson
Guest

Re Newspoll.

I told you so – well, sort of.

Rossmore
Guest

Cat, Pigeons.

Fulvio Sammut
Guest

I’d like to thank my wife, my children, my parents, my cats ….

C@tmomma
Guest

Scott Morrison’s overweaning ambition has finally met his UnMaker-the Treasury portfolio. 🙂

Airlines
Guest

Fulvio, 2137

All hail Fulvio Sammut, Predictor of Polls! 🙂

Fulvio Sammut
Guest

How many others here can claim predictive accuracy within 0.01%?

C@tmomma
Guest

confessions @ 2104,
Kissy, kissy. 🙂

What about Newspoll, eh!?!

C@tmomma
Guest

frednk @ 2106,
I accept your apology with open arms. 🙂

What I didn’t add but will share now is that, as a survivor of a bad burn due to boiling water, I knew exactly what that poor child must be going through.

Now the correct outcome has been achieved. The child will be in the community with it’s parents and able to access Outpatient care for it’s burns. 🙂

Airlines
Guest

James J, 2129

I wish I was a fly in the PMO right now 😀

confessions
Guest

Newspoll wow!!

Question
Guest

[
Newspoll

50-50 2PP
]

Bingo, that should give the bed-wetter’s something 🙂

TPOF
Guest

James J report @ 2129

Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of Coalition disunity!

C@tmomma
Guest

don @ 2100,
😳

James J
Guest

Newspoll

50-50 2PP

Coalition 43, Labor 35, Greens 12

Turnbull: Satisfied 48, Dissatisfied 38
Shorten: Satisfied 28, Dissatisfied 57

Better PM Turnbull 55, Shorten 21

1807 sample, 18-21 Feb

Airlines
Guest

Tom, 2125

From the same article:

[The ABC has been told Joe Bullock is considering an early retirement and that jostling has begun to fill the expected vacancy.

The former union secretary was controversially placed number one on Labor’s senate ticket last time around, which meant Louise Pratt missed out on being re-elected.

Senator Bullock declined to respond to the speculation.]

Question
Guest

Out of interest DTT, how much is the game if you buy it new on Steam right now?

Question
Guest

DTT,

Yes, they should have given you the Steam account it was activated with. I think you can swap or share games to different accounts (not sure about that) but you need to have the steam account it was activated with to do that.

Tom
Guest
daretotread
Guest

Question

Yes the activation has been used. So this I assume means that the disc and mauals etc are useless?

davidwh
Guest

DTT for a moment there I thought you had gone all ghostly.

Question
Guest

Steam is a game shop and copyright protection system, I presume you have installed it?

If the game looks a bit suss it may be the activation has already been used.

bemused
Guest

daretotread@2120

Bemused

Blame PB gremlins. It posted all by itself

It is not PB, must be your computer.

daretotread
Guest

Bemused

Blame PB gremlins. It posted all by itself

bemused
Guest

daretotread@2117

Probably not too many gamers on PB but I bo

Inscrutable!

daretotread
Guest

Probably not too many gamers on PB but I bought a game today at a trash and treasure. Seems it is with something called Steam. Even though it hads the product key it cannot be activated.

Have I done my dough (all $2)

daretotread
Guest

Probably not too many gamers on PB but I bo

poroti
Guest

B.C.

[average income of $80,000]
The use of average is bullshit. If Gina walked into the local bar then the average wealth of people in the pub would be in mega millions. The median is the go. It is the 50% mark and in 2011 for full-time workers, the median was $57,400 . So half of all full time workers earned less than $54,700 . However in that year the “average” wage was $74,800 . Quite a difference.

As for bracket creep 😆 Bracket creep needs wage/salary increases.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/what-is-the-typical-australian-income-in-2013/

Jack A Randa
Guest

Triton, I think the Lindy Chamberlain case is a perfect example of why I could never say the prosecution had convinced mne to 0% doubt that the accused was guilty. OK?

daretotread
Guest

Bemused

No but in terms of ISIS Afghanistan is not the main game in town

bemused
Guest

daretotread@2112

Bemused

No but I heard him on the radio. it is just that in Syria ans Iraq the evidence is that ISIS is under pressure

Then you don’t know what he was saying about the situation in Afghanistan.

daretotread
Guest

Bemused

No but I heard him on the radio. it is just that in Syria ans Iraq the evidence is that ISIS is under pressure

bemused
Guest

B.C.@2107

I was at the Perth Writers Festival again today —

Has there been any mention of the death in the last few days of two great literary figures, Harper Lee and Umberto Eco?

Steve777
Guest

Bracket creep was a problem when inflation was stuck on 7-10% year after year for two decades. Now that the inflation dragon is, if not dead, at least resting (or comatose), it’s a 9th order issue.

So why are the conservatives banging on about it? Same reason they wanted to increase the GST: reduce tax on that part of their income they can’t hide.

shea mcduff
Guest

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bracket-creep-is-code-for-cutting-highend-taxes-20160218-gmy34r

Peter Martin explains why so-called bracket creep is not a problem.

B.C.
Guest
On forgetting the lessons of WW2, this is a comment by Baron Carrington: However, as the young Peter Carington was beginning his life in politics, it was uncertain whether Churchill’s political career was already over. “He must have been very wounded when he was voted out in the landslide election in 1945. But I certainly understood why Labour was voted in. The public simply didn’t believe that the Conservatives could be trusted. Anyone who lived through the 1930s, who witnessed the Jarrow marches, understood that. There had been such terrible poverty. “I remember serving alongside men in my tank during… Read more »
B.C.
Guest

I was at the Perth Writers Festival again today and in the audience for the panel featuring Clare O’Neil, Richard Denniss and Laura Tingle. Denniss mentioned how Morrisson likes to mention our average income of $80,000 when discussing bracket creep. However, Denniss said the median household (not individual but household) income was around $70,000 (IIRC). So despite the talk of average Australians most Australians don’t have to worry about bracket creep.

For reference, according to http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-the-average-australian-households-income-is-145400-heres-what-they-spend-it-on-2014-9#state1 the average Australian household’s income in 2014 was $145,000.

frednk
Guest
[ C@tmomma Posted Sunday, February 21, 2016 at 8:18 pm | Permalink frednk @ 1998, ‘ I only found out today that Baby Asha is in hospital with burns suffered as a result of a cooking accident on Nauru. So of course it would be wrong to send a one year old burns victim back to an atoll in the middle of nowhere and without a proper Burns Unit. I am sure you can harden your heart a little more and declare it acceptable.’ That’s really nasty. ] I am glad you think so. And I appoligise. There are comments… Read more »
Michael
Guest

Further to my comment at 2099: I should have made it clearer that in relation to s.92 of the Electoral Act, it’s the process of habitation reviews that has long gone: the standing appropriation is still there, but it’s no longer supporting major one-off updates of the roll involving expensive field work. Instead, the AEC moved to what it called continuous roll update, and then to direct update of the rolls based on data received from other trusted agencies.

confessions
Guest

C@t:

What don said.

Tricot
Guest

Sorry JaR, what did I miss?….”I’d be absolutely for the death penalty…………….etc”.

Your seeming iron-clad condition of absolute guilt does not cut it with me.

I actually take the view that sending one innocent person to the gallows is a greater evil than taking the chance of getting say, 6 out of 7, to punish the 6.

I bet Lindy Chamberlain would be with you one this one…not.

ratsak
Guest
[Given quite a few PBers have argued for fixing bracket creep, I’d be interested to see what people think of this: afford”. Photo: Jonathan Barrett A proposal to lift the $80,001 marginal tax bracket to fix the problem of bracket creep would help the wealthy up to 10 times more than average wage earners, according to an analysis of Treasury data.] just lifting the 37c threshold to 100k would be one of the most hopeless things they could possibly think of. Of course the rich would love it to bits as they get a nice little tax cut, but the… Read more »
bemused
Guest

B.C.@2087

Re the Thomas Piketty oped on the rise of Bernie Sanders, I have a theory that from the early eighties the rich in the US (and the UK) forgot the lessons of WW2 and started getting greedy again.

Actually they never ceased being greedy and never will.

The problem was that the restraints were loosened too much.

don
Guest
[ C@tmomma@2096I’m sorry but I really am heartbroken that frednk could say something as nasty as that about me. ] I try hard to ignore the bad opinions about me from those whom I do not respect. Fsssshhh! Straight over the top of my head. If I am walking down the road and some hoons lean out of a car and say things about me, do I care? No, I smile, because I do not know them nor respect them, and they do not know me. How could they be capable of reasoned thought about me? I think we should… Read more »
wpDiscuz

Advertisement

Telling you what the others don't. FREE for 21 days.