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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 21, 2016

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The Australian has a surprise in store tomorrow, with the latest Newspoll survey showing the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, wiping out a 53-47 lead to the Coalition at the last poll three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 43%, Labor is up one to 35%, and the Greens are up one to 12%. This has been reflected in personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 48% and up seven on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 57%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-20 to 55-21. The poll also finds 47% support for Labor’s negative gearing plan, with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by Galaxy Research from a sample of 1807, contacted online and through automated phone polling. UPDATE: Also from Newspoll are results on “words used to describe the leaders” and “best leader to handle issues.

Note that there are a further two new posts beneath this one, one providing a forum for discussion on Senate reform and double dissolution talk separate from the main thread, the other being the return of Seat of the Week.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan finds no change on a much improved result for Labor a fortnight ago, with the Coalition again leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred. The primary votes are Coalition 43.5% (steady), Labor 29.5% (up 0.5%) and Greens 15% (down one). The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3116.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 52-48 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote has bounced back two points to 35% after dropping the same amount last week – unusually volatile behaviour for this series, which provides a rolling average of two weekly results. The Coalition is up a point to 44%, with the Greens down one to 10%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions divided the sample into two halves and asked a separate question on negative gearing: a straight one on reform “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes”, and another attributing the policy to Labor. The switch made surprisingly little difference: the former had 38% approval and 28% disapproval, the latter 37% and 32%, with moderate variations between Labor and Coalition voters cancelling out in the totals. Other results find 31% approval and 54% disapproval of cutting Sunday penalty rates in hospitality, entertainment and retail, and grim assessments on the health of the economy and respondents’ financial wellbeing – only company profits perceived as having improved over the past year, and very large majorities rating that the cost of living has worsened. The poll was conducted online, over two weeks from a sample of 2017 in the case of voting intention, and Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1002 for the rest.

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2223 comments

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Tom
Guest

I see most of the cartoonist have Turnbull wearing the red speedos now.

Tom.

guytaur
Guest

oops wrong thread

guytaur
Guest

Still nothing from Turnbull. So another wasted day to gain momentum for votes for the LNP.

Labor continues to set the agenda.

CTar1
Guest

bemused

Thanks. I have the Flemming set (in mismatched bindings)on my bookshelves.

BK
Guest

Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

How stupid can some mothers get?
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/antivaxxers-child-succumbs-to-measles-as-other-mothers-fear-to-go-out-20160224-gn25t5.html
Ron Tandberg knows how to put a simple cartoon together.
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John Spooner (judging from the style) takes us into the bedroom at the lodge with Malcolm and Lucy.
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Alan Moir continues his fun at the expense of Turnbull’s tax policy woes.
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Ron Tandberg on the Freudian misuse of a particular word.
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David Pope readies us for the Defence White Paper.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
Mark Knight with a rather graphic cartoon on the Melbourne bus crash.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/36e19dee4cb770765e25898b96e12c15?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
There’s a lot to see in this effort from David Rowe!
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And in this one that appeared late yesterday.
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BK
Guest
Section 2 . . . Judith Ireland tells us why the Safe Schools program is in place. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/spike-in-demand-for-mental-health-help-for-young-people-in-wake-of-safe-schools-review-plebiscite-20160224-gn238k.html Meanwhile The Guardian calls out Abetz for lying on the extent of concern in schools about the anti-bullying program. But that’s Eric isn’t it. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/25/only-one-school-has-quit-safe-schools-lgbti-program-after-parents-objections The Supreme Court rules that Father John Fleming is a “criminal, moral coward” as it dismisses Fleming’s defamation suit against The Advertiser. http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/father-john-fleming-a-criminal-moral-coward-supreme-court-rules/news-story/61801f42380c2bf04c63c9d489e66b8d How will the proposed senate voting rules affect your vote? https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/explainer-how-will-the-new-changes-to-senate-voting-affect-your-vote,8711 A lawyer who represented a victim of clergy abuse in Ballarat says that Pell must provide answers to the questions that will be… Read more »
BK
Guest
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Peter Martin says Turnbull has all but walked away from tax reform. Is it clearing the decks for the mother of all scare campaigns he wonders. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-walks-away-from-tax-reform-only-caps-on-super-negative-gearing-left-20160224-gn2i13.html Martin goes on to say Turnbull will squib tax reform because he’s terrified by it. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-terrified-by-tax-reform-20160223-gn1xrw.html More on this theme from Mark Kenny. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/negative-smearing-why-politics-trumps-policy-20160224-gn2h3c.html The property industry’s mining tax style negative gearing campaign will be a test for democracy. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/24/the-property-industrys-mining-tax-style-negative-gearing-campaign-is-a-test-for-democracy Nick Xenophon goes in hard against the owner of the Wendy’s franchising outfit for bring a “corporate cannibal”. (Google the string below). /news/federal-parliament-told-owner-of-wendys-chain-has-cost-people-millions-of-dollars-and-broken-business-laws/news-story/7e7bd057766895554576d405bde0a117 “Days of Our Lives”, sorry “The… Read more »
dave
Guest
[ Cracks appear in Coalition as tax plans founder As the government struggled again on Wednesday to get its lines straight on tax policy, sources said there was an uneasy mood between Mr Turnbull and Mr Morrison on Sunday night when the cabinet met at The Lodge for dinner, and the government’s general political situation and its derailed tax reform plans were discussed. “It was about ‘how did we get into this mess?'” said a source, who added that the discussion then moved to trying to agree on a way forward. One source said the atmosphere during the cabinet meeting… Read more »
don
Guest

Steve777@2190
[
Let’s get onto a bit of necromancy and dark arts to bring back Whitlam. ]

Nah. Go for gold.

Persuade Paul Keating to have another go.

Matt
Guest

Millennial @2210:

[If you’re talking about general election match-ups, beware: those polls are accurate, but not predictive.]

Indeed. Clinton’s already-awful numbers could get worse. They’re unlikely to get better, given how transparently deceitful her campaign has been thus far, the probe being run by the FBI into her private email servers and her ethical issues more generally.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I read this on apologies, and it uses President Clinton as an example. It set me to thinking about those wishy washy “sorry if you were offended’ apologies we get from our pollies, particulary Coalition MPs from my observation.

Now PM Rudd’s Apology to the Stolen Generations was sincere and genuine, and I believe it projected that sincerity.

And may the rotten stinkers who boycotted it be covered in shame forever.

Millennial
Guest

Bonza #2207
[I recall seeing several polls indicating that Sanders was actually more electable than Clinton for any given Republican opponent. So it seems to be an establishment myth that the Dems should choose Hillary to avoid a Republican.]

If you’re talking about general election match-ups, beware: those polls are accurate, but not predictive.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/

PhoenixGreen
Guest

Yeah, the “electability” line is just an establishment myth. Voters are nowhere near as ideological as some pundits think, just want someone believable to offer solutions that sound fair and proportionate to how frustrated they feel.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2016/02/poll-roundup-wobbles-just-got-worse.html
Poll Roundup: The Wobbles Just Got Worse
2PP 51.8 to Coalition (-1.1)
Also includes comments on an apparent error in a Newspoll!

Bonza
Guest

I recall seeing several polls indicating that Sanders was actually more electable than Clinton for any given Republican opponent. So it seems to be an establishment myth that the Dems should choose Hillary to avoid a Republican. Trump in particular I imagine would be able to hammer her for being bought by Wall St.

TPOF
Guest

David Pope on the budget implications of the Defence White Paper.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

And if you haven’t seen it already, go back one screen to see his take on Turncoat’s Safe Schools capitulation.

TPOF
Guest
cud chewer
Guest

Dio, I’m hoping Trump gets done in by the Republican establishment and he runs as a third party. Clinton would love that 🙂

zoidlord
Guest

‘I love poorly educated’ by Donold Trump comment reminds me of Joe Hockeys comments.

Reminds me how stupid USA is if they vote Trump to be President.

J341983
Guest
So… the only way to beat a bonkers populist is to try to find one of your own? I think you over-think the way people approach their vote. But we’ll see. I think Sanders would be completely neutered from day one, even if he gets a Democratic congress, it won’t be as left as him (noting that Sanders hasn’t raised a penny for Democratic races down-ticket, whereas Hillary has raised $15 million. I think the stakes are too high to treat THIS moment as the “if not now, when?!?” moment. But we’ll see. I’ll support Sanders, but with great concern… Read more »
Diogenes
Guest

Trump is actually quite a bit to the left of Cruz and Rubio, but he’s so explosively unpredictable he’s the last of them I’d want as President.

Unfortunately I have to hope for him getting the nomination as I think Clinton has the best chance against him. Rubio or Kasich would be a real problem for her.

Raaraa
Guest

I for one think that’s irrelevant.

I enjoy the occasional German language movies on SBS. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll happily watch foreign language shows on the commercial TV channels if they only they didn’t butcher them by dubbing them in English.

poroti
Guest

LU

Saw Otto pop up in a doco on Raoul Norling’s work in Paris. Described as “an extremely cultured man” Otto’s bit part was to do a Pontius Pilate when Nordling approached him regarding some political prisoners.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Raaraa,

I’m just happy for Eric that no one has brought up the topic of his uncle Otto, a Brigadier General in the SS, who was Nazi Germany’s ambassador to Vichy France from 1940 to 1944.

It’s a bit tasteless bringing that into things, don’t you think?

TPOF
Guest
LU at 2180 [Specifically, it will lower the price at which investors are willing to purchase an IP that earns given amount of rent. Lower after-CGT gains at the end mean that investors cannot ‘lose’ at much on the way through, by way of higher loan repayments on a higher principle, and still come out on top.] More importantly, investors will invest in property that offers higher income during ownership, rather than a higher capital gain at the end. I’ve been banging on here for days about the fact that the current negative gearing system combined with the current income… Read more »
Raaraa
Guest

Eric Abetz is ridiculous.

As part of his wish to see the ABC and SBS merge. He said WTTE that migrants should be able to speak English, etc. That’s besides the point.

Migrants like me speak English, but yet enjoy broadcast in languages other than English, including those that I don’t speak a word of.

Nicholas
Guest
Clinton would tinker with policies that have caused real median incomes to stagnate for forty years. Sanders challenges those policies and opens up opportunities for improvement in the living standards of low and middle income people. It would be extremely dangerous for Democrats to nominate someone who promises business-as-usual and who embodies crony capitalism at its worst when the GOP nominee offers a right-wing nationalist version of an anti-neoliberalism campaign. If the GOP has an anti-neoliberalism candidate, it is particularly important for the Democrats to have one too. Clinton is a very weak candidate on policy and a terrible candidate… Read more »
J341983
Guest

@2193 – I sense a little more grudging respect for Shorten of late. Shorten’s surge in 2014 was essentially based on not being Abbott. Getting people to get him, on his own merit is the longer, slower task that it being started now.

geoffrey
Guest

so we have shorten for an election? anyone done a pub test on him lately?
and the greens reforming senate at worse possible time (their meg lees moment)
an australia selling off the farm literally and every other sense
a decade a madness … or is it two ?

J341983
Guest

…addendum. But if Sanders is viable (as in, has a realistic path to win the nomination, not just could win) after March 16, then we’ll talk, but he’s BURNING through cash and will need to show real and building strength in order to restore his bank balance.

J341983
Guest

@2182… if it happens? So be it. Much rather four years of nothing happening, over four years of a GOP presidency with a GOP Congress.

Steve777
Guest

Bernie Sanders.
Jeremy Corbyn.

Everything old is new again. 🙂

Let’s get onto a bit of necromancy and dark arts to bring back Whitlam.

bemused
Guest

Steve777@2186

Sanders would be the President I’d want, but maybe we have to have Clinton. The risk of any of the Republican candidates being elected doesn’t bear thinking about.

Trump and Cruz are the scariest.

Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/ [The Great Republican Revolt The GOP planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war. Can the party reconcile the demands of its donors with the interests of its rank and file? David Frum Jan/Feb 2016 Issue The angriest and most pessimistic people in America aren’t the hipster protesters who flitted in and out of Occupy Wall Street. They aren’t the hashtavists of #BlackLivesMatter. They aren’t the remnants of the American labor movement or the savvy young dreamers who confront politicians with their American accents and un-American legal status. The angriest and most pessimistic people… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

Bernie Sanders.
Jeremy Corbyn.

Everything old is new again. 🙂

Steve777
Guest

Sanders would be the President I’d want, but maybe we have to have Clinton. The risk of any of the Republican candidates being elected doesn’t bear thinking about.

poroti
Guest

zoomster

Why shouldn’t Democratic voters have an “anti-establishment” candidate ? They’re the ones getting screwed the most by “the establishment” .

zoomster
Guest

[In a cycle in which voters are heartily sick of the damage done by establishment players, Democrats would be foolish to nominate Clinton to contest a general election against Trump.
]

On the contrary, surely she should run so that those who want people who actually know how to govern have someone to vote for. All the anti establishment people can vote for Trump.

poroti
Guest

J341983

Come on “Feel the Bern” !

bemused
Guest

J341983@2181



Sanders? Well… I respect him, I like him. But he won’t be the nominee and I’m pleased he won’t be, but I am pleased that his ideas have pushed the campaign to the left on issues.

I look forward to the Nomination, Election and Inauguration of President Sanders.

J341983
Guest
The vast majority of people voting for Trump wouldn’t have any idea what “neoliberal orthodoxy” is. They love capitalism, considering they’re backing a child of privilege, who has made his money by ransacking low-income minority areas and building developments that his voters will never be able to afford. He speaks to an audience that is angry and resentful. Pissed off at the presumed benefit given to minorities, they’re angry at the idea that “their” country has been taken from them. This is the natural consequence of the Tea Party being given control of the GOP. Sanders? Well… I respect him,… Read more »
Libertarian Unionist
Guest
In response to both this from Paul @2153: [Does Labor let you negative gear commercial and industrial property? There is no mention of this so I think it would depend on the business structure. An individual wage earner with an investment property would not be able to NG existing property. However, a company or maybe a trust that is in the business of renting commercial property would be able to claim the interest deductions because it is all business expenses and there is no wage income anyway.] …and this from poroti (and vic): [Gee what happened in about 1996, something… Read more »
poroti
Guest

victoria

Fitting that the size of Howard’s win in the internal Wets vs Dries war will cause their horrible defeat nationally. Tragically not before the bustards had many years doing damage to Australia.

Nicholas
Guest

Donald Trump thrashed Marco Rubio 46 to 24 in the Nevada caucuses. Ted Cruz was third on 21.

Donald Trump has won three of the four contests so far. He came second in Iowa.

Trump attacks neoliberal orthodoxy from a right-wing nationalist perspective. Sanders attacks neoliberal orthodoxy from an egalitarian socialist perspective. Clinton upholds neoliberal orthodoxy.

In a cycle in which voters are heartily sick of the damage done by establishment players, Democrats would be foolish to nominate Clinton to contest a general election against Trump.

Steve777
Guest

Thanks for that link. Gee what happened in about 1996, something really screwed housing affordability from that point?

In the early Howard years, interest rates dropped back from historically high levels. House prices moved up to compensate.

shellbell
Guest
victoria
Guest

I liked this comment at the Guardian

[LOL

Don’t waste your time looking for small ‘l’ liberals.

Howard with the like of Minchin and Kroger still rule the Liberals – if you want an example have a look at the latest young earth creationist recruit in Canning.

There is no Abbott team (he won’t be restored).

It will be a free for all amongst the hard right nutters (or ‘Taliban’ as they are known in the NSW factional anything but civil war) Morrison will probably win out … until the next spill ..].

Airlines
Guest

poroti, 2172

I wonder what it must have been! 😀

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