Menu lock

US Politics

Feb 29, 2016

Depending on how you calculate the time difference, we’re now just a day out from “Super Tuesday”, in which American voters across 14 states will more than likely settle the question of who will contest the presidential election in November. Following on from the early rounds in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, Super Tuesday will see both parties conduct their primaries and caucuses in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, with the Republicans adding Alaska, North Dakota and Wyoming to the list. As a Washington Post explainer puts it, this entails “a combination of a dozen races with a dozen set of rules with another dozen set of exceptions”.

Pundits now seem of one mind that this process will set the seal on a presdiential election contest in November between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Trump’s indestructibility might encourage skepticism about what pundits say, but the trends on both sides have been clear enough from the early primaries. The Republicans’ Iowa caucuses produced a close contest between the three front-runners, Trump, Ted Cruz and Mario Rubio, in which Cruz emerged narrowly ahead, but Trump has since won clear victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Polls indicate Ted Cruz will carry his own state of Texas tomorrow, and apparently also that Cruz should win Arkansas and Ben Carson should win Colorado, but the rest looks like a cakewalk for Trump. Hillary Clinton’s road has been bumpier than anticipated, but her loss to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire is now balanced by victories and Iowa, Nevada and a particularly emphatic win in South Carolina yesterday. Reflecting the strength in New England that was demonstrated by his win in New Hampshire, Sanders looks set to carry Massachusetts and his home state of Vermont, but barely looks competitive anywhere else.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

137 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
David
Guest

Republican operative Peggy Noonan paints a bleak picture for the Republican party if Trump wins. Their dammed if they do and their if they don’t.

“If trends continue—and political trends tend to—Mr. Trump will win or come very close to winning by the convention in July. If party forces succeed in finagling him out of the nomination his supporters will bolt, which will break the party. And it’s hard to see what kind of special sauce, what enduring loyalty would make them come back in the future.

If, on the other hand, Mr. Trump is given the crown in Cleveland, party political figures, operatives, loyalists, journalists and intellectuals, not to mention sophisticated suburbanites and, God knows, donors will themselves bolt.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-republican-party-is-shattering-1457050017

kakuru
Guest

mb

[Because Obama had a strong appeal to white voters, which Hillary doesn’t have. ]

Is there data to back this up?

Re Arizona…

[It’s a long shot, but there is significant demographic change going on there similar to Florida: lots of New Yorkers moving there for the winter sun and the ever-growing group of Hispanics.]

There’s still a long way to go before Arizona goes the same way as Nevada and New Mexico. It’s a long shot indeed.

Martin B
Guest

All the way back @60

[But the low voter turnouts in the US will always make it difficult for the “lesser of two evils” candidate to win. ]

No, independent voters do turn out as a substantial fraction of voters in Presidential elections, and their opinions will often be decisive.

[The national polls are hard to credit.]

As 538 keeps pointing out, national polls at this stage are not predictive of general election results, so they should not be (especially) credited.

[They are showing Trump behind Hillary but Rubionalmost beating her. Rubio is an insincere twerp who couldn’t be expected to come close in a Presidential race.]

It is, of course, always possible that this people surveyed are making different assessments to you.

[But November is a long way away. Things can change. And Hillary has virtually no appeal beyond the rusted on base. And I can’t see that changing much.]

The point is that both Trump and Rodham are *extremely* well known, and opinions about them throughout the country have been stable for quite a long time. Neither of them is going to suddenly turn around a big chunk of negative opinion about them.

Rodham doesn’t have charisma, and she’s not even all that likeable, necessarily, but she does look like she can do the job. Trump doesn’t. And that is something that independent voters will care about, not ideology or history.

CTar1
Guest

I keep seeing clips of Cristie with Trump.

Is he angling to be Trumps VP running mate?

dave
Guest

[ “How To Move To Canada” Searches Spike 1,000% After Trump Super Tuesday Rout

….his landslide win in Massachusetts with 49 per cent of the vote was particularly surprising, since the state has the most educated population in the U.S,” The Telegraph goes on to note. ]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-02/how-move-canada-searches-spike-1000-after-trump-super-tuesday-rout

Diogenes
Guest

Ben Carson pulls out. That’s one less nutjob in the race.

Raaraa
Guest
Rational Leftist
Guest

So now I will start talking about the race in terms of Clinton v. Trump. While technically there are still avenues to upset either of those candidates, I cannot see it realistically happening.

I made a prediction at the end of last year that it would be Clinton v. Rubio. It appears I got the latter way wrong. I had too much faith that the GOP establishment would be able to rally itself to a single candidate, similar to how they successfully did so with Romney in 2012 (Although, it helped that he had the base of support from his 2008 run.)

I guess the strategy for the anti-Trump GOP elements will soon be to try and spoil as many races as possible and try to force a brokered convention. However, I doubt this will work as, despite him not having that strong of a popular vote in the primary races, he’s still picking up the delegates. Also, as it becomes more clear that he will be the nominee, more in the GOP will start to accept that and get behind him.

Honestly, as I said earlier, the best thing for the GOP establishment (and aspirants) is to bite the bullet and get behind Trump (before it looks completely opportunistic.) That way a Trump loss can’t be blamed on white anting and, if Trump wins, they might be invited to the table and might be able to have some influence over him.

(Of course, I am saying this from the hypothetical perspective of someone in the GOP who, let’s face it, agrees with most of Trump’s policies – from my own ideological perspective I wouldn’t have anything to do with him and hope that he crashes and burns)

Diogenes
Guest

GG

I have enough insight toI know I’d be a shit candidate. That’s why I wouldn’t stand.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Bonza,

Just Wishin and hopin and prayin imho.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Diogs,

I notice you’ve neve had the courage to throw your hat in any electoral ring so others can ascertain how “Shit” you are as a political candidate.

Bonza
Guest

TYT still seem optimistic about Sanders;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdWd0wV44mk

Simon Katich
Guest

Dio,
I prefer betting on the outsiders. If I were to tipple, I would drop a few bob on Kasich. If only for this line he angrily hurled at a wealthy Republican donor who questioned why he supported Medicaid…
[I don’t know about you, lady, but when I get to the pearly gates, I’m going to have an answer for what I’ve done for the poor.]

Raaraa
Guest

Interesting election analyst on Triple J Hack.

Sanders winning the states that are usually won by the Democrats, while Clinton took those that are usually won by Republicans.

Diogenes
Guest

Trump is now paying 7/1 on (ie 85% chance of winning) and Clinton 33/1 (97%).

Time to start thinking about running mates.

Democrats 2/1 on to retain the presidency.

Diogenes
Guest

You’ve got to wonder how the US came up with such a bunch of shit candidates with 400 million people.

I imagine the cost of $100M to get this far would cut out most of those.

Simon Katich
Guest

Raaraa
Superdelegate preferences at this stage would enter into Sanders calculations on deciding to pull out or not. So it would also help pundits predicting such.

Ordinary people are sending him their money. It must be an agonising decision for him.

Raaraa
Guest

I really dislike the publishing of superdelegates in all polling. Those numbers can change (as superdelegates are allowed to change their vote at any time).

I’m just following the pledged numbers for now.

Asha Leu
Guest

The Lorax:

[Clinton would be very happy about today’s results. The last thing she wants is to fight an election against Rubio.]

While I’m sure Clinton would indeed be happy with today’s results, I can’t agree at all about Rubio. He is a joke. Trump and Cruz might be lunatics, but at they at least seem vaguely presidential.

meher baba
Guest

The Lorax@114: “Clinton would be very happy about today’s results. The last thing she wants is to fight an election against Rubio.”

If I were Clinton, I’d far rather be up against Rubio than Trump.

Like Hillary, Rubio is a piss poor campaigner: Trump’s description of him as “the lightweight” seems entirely fair to me. He’s a former moderate who has recently embraced a far right set of policies, but he doesn’t come across as believing in them and, lately, seems to have been trying to shift back towards the centre because suddenly there’s more opportunity for him there now.

Trump, on the other hand, is an unpredictable force. Yes, he’s a ratbag, but he’s also very charismatic and a great public performer. Hillary is uncharismatic and a poor public performer. Trump could blow up completely, but he could also conceivably roll over the top of her, crowding her out of the campaign to the extent that she is hardly even heard.

Then Hillary will be depending on people choosing her because she is a proven safe pair of hands over Trump’s erratic nature. But, in America, a lot of people who marginally prefer Hillary over Trump might end up not bothering to turn out to vote.

wpDiscuz