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Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Little change on a fortnight ago for both Newspoll, which repeats its tied result, and Roy Morgan, which finds Labor holding on to recent gains but advancing no further.


UPDATE: Contrary to what it says below, James J in comments relates that there is a Newspoll out, and that it’s unchanged on a fortnight ago: a tie on two-party preferred, with primary votes of Coalition 43%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. Also unchanged is Malcolm Turnbull’s 55-21 lead as preferred prime minister, but he’s down four on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 30% and down two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1815. Full tables from The Australian.

There will apparently be no Newspoll this week, so Roy Morgan gets the guernsey instead. Their latest face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3011, has the Coalition lead at 53-47 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. This is half a point better for the Coalition than the previous two results, but still two points lower than in any of their earlier polls on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The primary vote figures are in interesting study in the effects of survey design, with the “others” vote spiking three points to 13%, its highest level this term. This is very likely influenced by the fact that the Nick Xenophon Team is now being included as an option in the questionnaire nationally, and not just in South Australia as before. The Coalition is down half a point to 43%, Labor is steady on 29.5%, and the Greens are down two to 13%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is unchanged at 50-50, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 37% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 45% and up eight no disapproval to 35%, Bill Shorten steady on 27% and down one on disapproval to 47%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 52-15 to 48-19. Further questions find 41% approval for negative gearing, and 37% disapproval; 35% approving of Labor’s policy to limit it to newly built homes, and 39% disapproving; and 32% saying they would prefer house prices go up, with 34% wanting them to come down.


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