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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 28, 2016

Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016

Newspoll breakdowns find the Turnbull government sinking in Victoria and South Australia; another poll suggests the government will have a hard time selling its budget; internal polling reportedly shows Bronwyn Bishop's goose to be cooked in Mackellar; and a Liberal-versus-Nationals stoush looms with the retirement of Sharman Stone in Murray.

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Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.

Also of note:

• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.

• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.

• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.

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1804 comments

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cud chewer
Guest

I’m starting to suffer poll deprivation syndrome :/

imacca
Guest

[ the ALP are not winning there just doing a Bradbury ]

Keep thinking that Steamy. 🙂

imacca
Guest

[ The question you should be asking yourself is who will be the PM he beats. Turnbull’s constant fuck ups are going to have a lot of his team looking to save the furniture. ]

rat, a month ago i would have had a laugh at that. “Your Dreamin” would be my response……….

Now…..it isn’t an out there assertion. Tony is positioning which normally would be just him being delusional but with MalPm and ScoMo buggerising things up to the extent they have Turnbulls longevity could be questionable.

imacca
Guest

[ I will admit I do not understand the Coalitions strategy, ]

Its alright SteamSteely, no-one in the coalition does either.

[ calling a DD and focusing on Union corruption seemed like a good plan, ]

only to idiots…

[ but a new tax is going to be a real hard sell ]

You reckon?? 🙂

[ it should have been trumpeted out with heaps of fanfare, ]

It would still be a stupid idea, regardless of the presentation.

[ We could stuff this up if we are not careful. ]

To Late. 🙂

grimace
Guest

Zoomster @ 1259

I have some experience setting up corporate entities in Timor-Leste, i wish your friend luck in setting up a co-op. She is going to need PLENTY of patience.

daretotread
Guest

Steely

Like Briefly I also welcome you. It is great to actually get a sane voice from the liberals. We have a few but not many. We do get some of the crazies but I do not count them.

cud chewer
Guest

[Shorten has changed his media advisors since the start of this year and its working for him.]

Sounds to me like he’s had voice coaching too.

Steelydan
Guest

You may have just caught me at a weak moment lizzie my side are getting the crap beaten out of them and we are doing it to ourselves, but I am a Liberal man through and through. Thanks anyway.

lizzie
Guest

Steelydan
In spite of first impressions i find you a thoughtful and reasonable person and I hope you will continue to contribute to this blog.

TPOF
Guest
briefly
Guest

[1786
Nicholas]

In particular, let’s hope that Labor does not need you for anything.

lefty e
Guest

Shorten has changed his media advisors since the start of this year and its working for him.

briefly
Guest

1784
TPOF

Shorten has been doing live audience meetings/speeches/Q&A gigs all the time. He performs very well. Come the live debates, he will easily outpoint T.

T is ok with the rehearsed phrases but he does not think as quickly as Shorten and cannot condense his thoughts on his feet. Of course, Shorten is decidedly younger, more energetic, has better body language and a lifetime of experience in stand-up, real-life communication. It shows.

lefty e
Guest

I agree TPOF. He looks sane and stable by comparison. If they backed a Federal ICAC Id just about call it for the ALP now.

Anyone who hasnt put $50 on the ALP at 5-1 is nuts.

Steelydan
Guest
Chud Chewer 1778 I thoought it was insightful I don’t understand what you mean by gloating and is it possible for people like yourself to not abuse people, it is difficult to know what a persons character is by reading posts, and even though it is obvious by your posts that you are reasonable intelligent and have a good grasp of politics saying things to people that you would not say to there face also shows you to be a coward. But don’t worry there is a lot of them on this site I hope I am not seeing a… Read more »
TPOF
Guest

[They think they can make capital by gathering outside the tent and throwing rocks, sticks and insults at the occupants.]

Sounds like the monkey pod club to me.

TPOF
Guest

lefty at 782

[Shorto hasnt won over the public at large.]

And he won’t before he becomes PM. All he needs to do is earn enough respect to not be an obstacle to people voting Labor in response to the Coalition omnishambles. I’m convinced he can do that as the election approaches.

Nicholas
Guest

They think they can make capital by gathering outside the tent and throwing rocks, sticks and insults at the occupants. I hope Labor find themselves not having to rely on the G’s for anything at all.

Baghdad Briefly strikes again.

briefly
Guest

[1782
lefty e

Shorto hasnt won over the public at large. Not by a long stretch. And yet its 50-50 or thereabouts.

Thats how bad the LNP is governing.
The press doesnt seem to get the above.]

Whatever the election turns out to be about, it will not be about Shorten.

TPOF
Guest
cud @ 1771 I still disagree, but I’ve made my points and there is no value in repeating them. I would clarify one thing though. I have watched a few Suspension of Standing Orders debates in recent months where I have seen Shorten and Turnbull up against each other debating. Very few swinging voters have seen the two up against each other. Shorten will eat Turnbull alive when they do the face to face debates at Rooty Hill or wherever. Shorten is actually quite direct and uses straightforward, but not simplistic, language. Turnbull can’t stop waffling to save himself and… Read more »
briefly
Guest

[1777
cud chewer

I was half expecting Turnbull to bring things back to 50/50..]

A very large part of the T effect was simply delight that Abbott – the Crazy Clown, The Worst PM in National History – had been removed.

But that is not enough.

Maybe, if he’d taken his chance for a DD in February, it would have got him through. But having chosen to at least try to govern, T is finding out just how difficult that is when his Party actually hates him – when they will obstruct his every action.

lefty e
Guest

Shorto hasnt won over the public at large. Not by a long stretch. And yet its 50-50 or thereabouts.

Thats how bad the LNP is governing.
The press doesnt seem to get the above.

cud chewer
Guest

Steely,

Which post? The one where I say you’re a fucking idiot for voting Liberal and probably read the Daily Telegraph? Sure, there’s lots of fucking idiots out there. Nothing to gloat about.

kezza2
Guest

Steely

Thanks for replying, have a dog emerg at the moment; will get back toyou.

briefly
Guest

[1774
cud chewer

A Labor/Green senate is a real possibility and in that situation I think Labor could get a lot of good stuff done.]

The G’s will always find some way to thwart Labor. They think they can make capital by gathering outside the tent and throwing rocks, sticks and insults at the occupants. I hope Labor find themselves not having to rely on the G’s for anything at all.

Steelydan
Guest

Shorten looking like a genius, please give me a break, your mob are doing better because the Libs are shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly. Read Cud Chewers post and then re read it and that’s about where it is at.

cud chewer
Guest

I was half expecting Turnbull to bring things back to 50/50..

cud chewer
Guest

That and the size of the tectonic shift.

cud chewer
Guest

BB,

Your remind me of a point I almost made earlier to TPOF.

[They stayed at 55-45 or thereabouts for months, until suddenly moving, as if tectonic plates had shifted.]

The fact that the polls weren’t even higher for Labor under Abbott (like 57) tells you everything about a large chunk of swinging voters who are still convinced that Labor was ineffective, incompetent and wasteful. And Labor has said NOTHING since to disabuse swinging voters of this. They do need to defend their record, not just go through the usual motions.. policy launches etc.

cud chewer
Guest

briefly,

I’d be happy to see Labor’s PV get up to 40. In that situation they would have a decent majority in the lower house.

I’m not so optimistic about Labor getting anywhere near a majority in the Senate. Not impossible, but certainly you’re right in saying that a DD is a risky thing.

A Labor/Green senate is a real possibility and in that situation I think Labor could get a lot of good stuff done.

Bushfire Bill
Guest
To those despairing that the polls are only around 50-50, or perhaps 51/49 (Turnbull’s way)… do NOT despair. They stayed at 55-45 or thereabouts for months, until suddenly moving, as if tectonic plates had shifted. I think we’re in for some aftershocks. This mess that Turnbull is putting up as “government” cannot last much longer without serious changes in the polls. Labor only needs 2 or 3 percent and it’s an election winning lead for them. But the public needs to get used to the idea that Turnbull has let them down and that Labor can be trusted again. That’s… Read more »
Steelydan
Guest

Kezza2 Tennant Creek NT

cud chewer
Guest
TPOF @1752, [Voters are rational] No, voters are human. Shallow, selfish, and on the whole, fairly unintelligent. One big motivation when hovering over the ballot paper is pretending to oneself that one didn’t get it “wrong” last time. And even to the extent that voters are rational, they are far from well informed. Lots of voters rationally decided to ditch the ALP because the ALP was chaotic, wasteful and incompetent. And it must be true because everyone else said so and the Daily Telegraph said so. So far the Liberals are doing their best to hand it to Labor. But… Read more »
briefly
Guest
I should also add that when voters decide to remove a Liberal Government they will do so by switching their support to Labor. Labor will attract support from the Liberals, the micros/3rd voices and the Greens. The logic is irrefutable from the standpoint of most voters. So we will see the Labor’s PV improve at the expense of all its competitors. This has the potential to re-write the rules in the Senate in the context of a DD. If Labor’s PV were to shift back towards 42-3% – and it’s very possible this can happen – they may get close… Read more »
kezza2
Guest
[Steelydan Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2016 at 5:19 pm | PERMALINK I live in a town with over two thousand aboriginal people and I have no doubt that quite a few of them feel like there country was invaded but I also believe that everyone of them would put employment, health, education, housing and a shitload of other things that come under those banners a long way before recognising that Captain Cook invaded Australia. The QandA audience type need to come out here and live for just a few weeks and see what it is really like and then they… Read more »
Jack A Randa
Guest

The Nationals may be keen to regain Murray, but they should look at the numbers from the last time there was a 3-cornered contest, ie when Dr Stone first won it. She got 43.2% of the vote to the Nationals 29.7. Doubt that the ratio of farmers to townies or urbanites has changed in the farmers’ favour since then.

Airlines
Guest

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ian-macfarlane-backs-mcveigh-preselection-20160330-gnu2da.html

[Retiring parliamentarian Ian Macfarlane says Queensland state MP John McVeigh should be pre-selected to run in his seat of Groom at this year’s federal election.
Mr McVeigh is in a pre-selection battle with controversial Toowoomba GP David van Gend to become the Liberal National Party’s candidate for the seat, which Mr Macfarlane is vacating.
Mr Macfarlane said Mr McVeigh was the most qualified for the job and would be a “fierce” advocate for the Darling Downs-based electorate.]

Airlines
Guest

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-30/damian-drum-to-quit-to-run-in-federal-seat-murray/7283558?section=vic

[National Party MP Damian Drum will quit the Victorian Upper House to seek preselection for the federal seat of Murray.

The Nationals are keen to regain the seat which is being vacated by Liberal Sharman Stone, who announced on Saturday she would not contest the election after 20 years in Parliament.

Mr Drum’s decision to run sets up a likely contest against their Coalition partners, who are expected to preselect a new Liberal candidate in the coming weeks.

Mr Drum was educated in Shepparton and had a career as a footballer and coach before being elected to the State Parliament in 2002.]

poroti
Guest

Airlines

Truffles is the U-Boat commander about whom Steven Fry spoke on a QI episode. The captain sank his own submarine accidentally by stuffing up the procedure for using the toilet. Tried fixing it himself but the flooding got to the batteries and the shite really hit the fan then.

Airlines
Guest

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-30/federal-government-re-election-campaign-risk-of-sinking-in-sa/7280766?section=sa

[While submarines are designed to sink enemies, it is the Federal Government’s re-election campaign that is at risk of sinking in South Australia.

Adelaide University political analyst Professor Clem Macintyre said uncertainty over where the next generation submarines would be built would hurt the Liberal’s SA campaign.]

cud chewer
Guest

It seems that whoever is running the ABC’s facebook pages is removing comments related to the NBN

Assholes.

mikehilliard
Guest

TPOF @1752

You summed up there most of what I wanted to say.

Shorten has a battle ahead on impression alone.

lefty e
Guest
Turnbull is looking very flaky right now. His ‘cities’ plan, from what Ive read of it isnt quite as flaky as this tax rubbish his waffled out today – but it will be a hard sell given the last 15 years of LNP anti-debt rhetoric, being essentially reliant on long term loans. But this ‘plan’ today, hahahaa, is headed right for the bin. The ALP should get him trot out as much rope on it as possible, via dorothy dixers, before its inevitable ditching: small states loathe this sort of crap, it smells like no cross-subsidy from larger states. No… Read more »
briefly
Guest
[1737 cud chewer] I’ve yet to meet the voter – other than a paid-up Lib – who will spontaneously cite pink batts and school halls as reasons to vote Liberal. Really, I’ve never met one. Voters were very discomforted by the R-G-R squabbles. But this has largely faded away. In any case, the A-T-A wrangling has simply encouraged voters to substantially lower he premium they place on leadership. Voters will focus on policies and on the conduct of the parties. They will refract what they see through the prism of cynicism….they just tend to discount nearly everything they read/see/hear. They… Read more »
Douglas and Milko
Guest

I have just seen this in my Facebook feed, or whatever you call that thing:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/vic-parliament-goes-true-blue#.lhomGDnkPv

According to this article it is Labor people in the Victorian parliament who are sledging this woman.

I am emailing this to my local MP and other Labor friends to ask that this sort of behaviour be stopped immediately.

Henry
Guest

This says it all as to how the NSW state govt has rolled over and had it’s tummy tickled by Packer’s Crown mob with the Barangaroo casino development in Sydney. Whatever Packer wants Baird and co just cave in and say yes yes yes Jimmy.
Thank god Keating was able to quarantine the headland for public use otherwise they would have gobbled that up too.

http://beta.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/barangaroo-house-wins-again-as-casino-games-government-20160330-gnu4bv.html

Douglas and Milko
Guest

Shellbell@1490,

Yes, finding a pro bono advocate is the best way forward. I have been in touch with the young lady in question, and she will be around to see me with every bit of documentation she can get her hands on tomorrow morning.

she is still completely chuffed that anyone is interested.

TPOF
Guest

Steely @ 1751

Don’t forget that Bradbury got the gold medal because he know how to skate and had a cool head. It’s easy to think it was just because everyone took everyone else out, but I couldn’t have done it and, I suspect, many other speed skaters of moderate ability could not have done it.

TPOF
Guest
[Did Mal not learn anything from the Abbott disaster about the importance of competent, coherent, and saleable policy?] Like most Australians, even rusted on Labor voters and, I suspect, even Bill Shorten and his parliamentary party, I expected that Turnbull had used his time in the wilderness drawing up detailed plans of exactly where he would take his party and his government if he ever got the job. Whatever he was doing (given he had outsourced the job of gutting the NBN) it clearly was not that. I suspect Bill Shorten and Labor cannot believe their eyes and ears that… Read more »
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