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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 28, 2016

Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016

Newspoll breakdowns find the Turnbull government sinking in Victoria and South Australia; another poll suggests the government will have a hard time selling its budget; internal polling reportedly shows Bronwyn Bishop's goose to be cooked in Mackellar; and a Liberal-versus-Nationals stoush looms with the retirement of Sharman Stone in Murray.

Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.

Also of note:

• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.

• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.

• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.

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1804 comments

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cud chewer
Guest

I’m starting to suffer poll deprivation syndrome :/

imacca
Guest

[ the ALP are not winning there just doing a Bradbury ]

Keep thinking that Steamy. 🙂

imacca
Guest

[ The question you should be asking yourself is who will be the PM he beats. Turnbull’s constant fuck ups are going to have a lot of his team looking to save the furniture. ]

rat, a month ago i would have had a laugh at that. “Your Dreamin” would be my response……….

Now…..it isn’t an out there assertion. Tony is positioning which normally would be just him being delusional but with MalPm and ScoMo buggerising things up to the extent they have Turnbulls longevity could be questionable.

imacca
Guest

[ I will admit I do not understand the Coalitions strategy, ]

Its alright SteamSteely, no-one in the coalition does either.

[ calling a DD and focusing on Union corruption seemed like a good plan, ]

only to idiots…

[ but a new tax is going to be a real hard sell ]

You reckon?? 🙂

[ it should have been trumpeted out with heaps of fanfare, ]

It would still be a stupid idea, regardless of the presentation.

[ We could stuff this up if we are not careful. ]

To Late. 🙂

grimace
Guest

Zoomster @ 1259

I have some experience setting up corporate entities in Timor-Leste, i wish your friend luck in setting up a co-op. She is going to need PLENTY of patience.

daretotread
Guest

Steely

Like Briefly I also welcome you. It is great to actually get a sane voice from the liberals. We have a few but not many. We do get some of the crazies but I do not count them.

cud chewer
Guest

[Shorten has changed his media advisors since the start of this year and its working for him.]

Sounds to me like he’s had voice coaching too.

Steelydan
Guest

You may have just caught me at a weak moment lizzie my side are getting the crap beaten out of them and we are doing it to ourselves, but I am a Liberal man through and through. Thanks anyway.

lizzie
Guest

Steelydan
In spite of first impressions i find you a thoughtful and reasonable person and I hope you will continue to contribute to this blog.

TPOF
Guest
briefly
Guest

[1786
Nicholas]

In particular, let’s hope that Labor does not need you for anything.

lefty e
Guest

Shorten has changed his media advisors since the start of this year and its working for him.

briefly
Guest

1784
TPOF

Shorten has been doing live audience meetings/speeches/Q&A gigs all the time. He performs very well. Come the live debates, he will easily outpoint T.

T is ok with the rehearsed phrases but he does not think as quickly as Shorten and cannot condense his thoughts on his feet. Of course, Shorten is decidedly younger, more energetic, has better body language and a lifetime of experience in stand-up, real-life communication. It shows.

lefty e
Guest

I agree TPOF. He looks sane and stable by comparison. If they backed a Federal ICAC Id just about call it for the ALP now.

Anyone who hasnt put $50 on the ALP at 5-1 is nuts.

Steelydan
Guest

Chud Chewer 1778 I thoought it was insightful I don’t understand what you mean by gloating and is it possible for people like yourself to not abuse people, it is difficult to know what a persons character is by reading posts, and even though it is obvious by your posts that you are reasonable intelligent and have a good grasp of politics saying things to people that you would not say to there face also shows you to be a coward. But don’t worry there is a lot of them on this site I hope I am not seeing a snapshot of your typical Labor voter but I do wander where it comes from the hatred and the cowardice.

TPOF
Guest

[They think they can make capital by gathering outside the tent and throwing rocks, sticks and insults at the occupants.]

Sounds like the monkey pod club to me.

TPOF
Guest

lefty at 782

[Shorto hasnt won over the public at large.]

And he won’t before he becomes PM. All he needs to do is earn enough respect to not be an obstacle to people voting Labor in response to the Coalition omnishambles. I’m convinced he can do that as the election approaches.

Nicholas
Guest

They think they can make capital by gathering outside the tent and throwing rocks, sticks and insults at the occupants. I hope Labor find themselves not having to rely on the G’s for anything at all.

Baghdad Briefly strikes again.

briefly
Guest

[1782
lefty e

Shorto hasnt won over the public at large. Not by a long stretch. And yet its 50-50 or thereabouts.

Thats how bad the LNP is governing.
The press doesnt seem to get the above.]

Whatever the election turns out to be about, it will not be about Shorten.

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