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BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.

bludgertrack-2016-06-28

2016-06-29-betting-markets

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2080 comments

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Jack A Randa
Guest

Hey WillBowe, I just had a terrible thought. If the AEC tell all the polling places in SA to do the usual indicative 2PP count on a Lib vs Lab basis, we really won’t have clue about the outcome in any seats on Saturday night will we? Any chance that they could be a bit more subtle and tell the OICs to do an indicative 3-way count between Lib, Lab and NXT? (Then, if they had time after totalling that count they could do 2PP counts as relevant in each Division – but if they didn’t have time for that at least we’d know who was coming 1st 2nd and 3rd in each Division and could make intelligent predictions.)
Sub-s 274(2A) seems to permit that; it says to “conduct a count of preference votes …that… will best provide an indication of the candidate most likely to be elected for the Division”. But they haven’t shown much flexibility in the past, have they?

OlivierK
Guest

Guytaur Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 2:59 pm
lenoretaylor: One in three GPs could ditch universal bulk billing, survey warns https://t.co/0kLiwYIaLo
—————–
My wife’s practice had to ditch universal bulk billing earlier this year. That, or go broke. They’ve had posters up in their waiting room blaming the Coalition for months.

OlivierK
Guest

C@Tmomma Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 2:20 pm
guytaur @ #1571 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 2:08 pm
ABC Radio Local News. Mike Baird has been sent to Cowper to try and save the seat

Well, that will go down like a lead blue balloon. Mr Council Amalgamations sent to save the Liberal/NP furniture in Cowper.
——————
Even Nats up here don’t think much of city Liberals, but there haven’t been any council amalgamations in Cowper.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Hey, lay off Bluey, his is only an opinion.

swamprat
Guest

I’m tipping a “shock” win to ALP on Saturday.

And here’s what I think of Bluey…
http://www.foodtolove.com.au/recipes/chilli-and-garlic-octopus-18247
🙂

TPOF
Guest

bobball_au @ #2056 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 8:41 pm

My 93 year old mother voted today, along with my sister. Two more for Terri Butler.
” She’s a nice girl, but I don’t like that Turnbull, he’s got shifty eyes.”
Well said Mum!

My father is 95 and in a nursing home. He is also in Turnbull’s electorate and has been in Wentworth for decades. He was a lifelong Labor voter until he decided that Labor wasn’t Labor any more (longed for the days of Chifley) and became a fan of Howard’s.

I asked him a few weeks ago what he thought of Turnbull. He said that Turnbull passed him once (before he went into the nursing home) and he turned to smile at Turnbull and Turnbull gave him the most arrogant sneering look as though he was rubbish. Now my father does overstate this stuff, but I thought it amusing and interesting that it was hate at first sight for him.

Story apropos of nothing much. Other than one more person who thinks Turncoat is a fake.

C@tmomma
Guest

Aaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh! Michael Gove as PM of Britain!!!

Rupert back through the front door of Number 10!!!

Jolyon Wagg
Guest

If Bill were to win I think Sales should do the decent thing and resign. Otherwise she should be sacked as quickly as possible (unfortunately might take a while!).

MagicPudding
Guest

Boris Johnson has announced he will not be a candidate for the Tory leadership.

Rod Hagen
Guest

So, was the brash “all over bar the shouting” nonsense from PM and pundits really the equivalent of Sir Humphrey’s “avant guarded music , super modern decor and a loud shirt” ( or whatever it was) when things are really going very badly?

booleanbach
Guest

Sound familiar? from an article about Brexit:
“When leaders choose the facts that suit them, ignore the facts that don’t and, in the absence of suitable facts, simply make things up, people don’t stop believing in facts – they stop believing in leaders.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/brexit-disaster-decades-in-the-making

bug1
Guest

(4% to NXT as its going to take votes from LNP before ALP, eg, 3 or 4 seats in SA)

jenauthor
Guest

Windhover – my OH has been known to do the odd TV show 🙂 and I am willing to bet, the producer said to her ‘wrap it up’ and she involuntarily repeated it – unprofessional yes, but also likely.

bug1
Guest

“Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (+1) ALP 33 (0) GRN 13 (-1) Others 14”
Allow 4% of others to NXT (essential result), 5% to LNP, 5% ALP
Allow 80% of GRN to ALP = 10%, 3% to LNP, gives;
LNP 48, ALP 52

zoomster
Guest

If I were the Greens, I’d find the fact that Others are polling so highly disappointing – surely more of that vote should be going their way?

J K
Guest

Heard more from Hindmarsh – they’re feeling good.

SirGitOfSmeg
Guest

Hey Tim Brooke-Taylor got fat

No wait that’s Boris Johnson, blaming the EU for the consequences of Tory Austerity measures

Henry
Guest

This Sky News mini forum in Rooty Hill is fascinating (Spiers with 13 undecideds).
Their concerns all resonate with labor talking points – “don’t trust Turnbull, worried about penalty rates, gay marriage yeah why not, get on with it).
There could be some undercurrents here the MSM are not picking up. Very encouraging.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Just back from a session to learn how to scrutineer for Saturday. I have my own souvenir Vote for Penny Wong in the Senate corflute. 🙂

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