The Australian has a Newspoll of state voting intention in Western Australia that has Labor leading 52-48, down from 54-46 in the previous poll published in May. On the primary vote, the Liberals and Nationals are steady on 40%, Labor is down one to 41%, and the Greens are down two to 9%. Colin Barnett’s personal ratings are now at dire levels, with approval down three to 28% and disapproval up three to 61%. Labor’s Mark McGowan is also down, although from a much higher base, with approval down five to 46% and disapproval up five to 33%. However, he has increased his already substantial lead as preferred premier from 46-32 to 47-29. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.
Some further local polling:
• The West Australian reported on Tuesday that union-commissioned polls showed swings to Labor of 18% in the bellwether northern suburbs seat of Wanneroo and 12% in the regional city seat of Bunbury. In Wanneroo, Liberal member Paul Miles’ 61-39 winning result in 2013 had switched to a 57-43 lead in favour of Labor, with primary vote of Labor 43%, Liberal 33% and Greens 5%. In Bunbury, which retiring Liberal member John Castrilli has held since he won it from Labor in 2005, the Liberals’ post-redistribution margin of 11.9% was gone entirely, with primary votes of Liberal 34%, Labor 33%, Nationals 9% and Greens 7%, with two-party preferred at 50-50. The polls were conducted by ReachTEL for the Electrical Trades Union and Australian Services Union, respectively from samples of 657 and 529.
• I’ve been provided with results of polling from the Perth seats of Joondalup, Mount Lawley and Bicton, conducted from a sample of 200 per electorate for the Kimberley Like Nowhere Else Alliance. The questions mostly relate to marine park and environmental issues in the Kimberley, which were collectively deemed “quite important” in influencing voting behaviour by 42%, with 26% rating it more strongly and 32% less so. Voting intention was also gauged, but the value of the results is limited by the fact that no follow-up question was included to prompt the 20% undecided. Of the 482 who offered a response, 43% opted for Liberal or the Nationals, compared with 54.6% in these seats at the 2013 election; Labor was on 37%, up from 31.3%; and the Greens were on 14%, up from 9.9%. In two-party terms, this suggests a swing to Labor of around 9.5%, which is consistent with a statewide two-party preferred of around 52-48 in favour of Labor. The breakdowns suggested the Liberals would retain Joondalup and lose Mount Lawley with Bicton too close to call, but the samples at this level are too small to be instructive. The poll was conducted by phone and online from Patterson Market Research in September.