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Still only the weekly Essential Research results to go on so far this year, and this week’s figures have made very little difference to this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, except that Labor gains an extra seat in Queensland. Also of note is that One Nation’s upward trend shows no signs of abating, with the party now level with the Greens. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings. The looming resumption of parliament suggests Newspoll’s end-of-year sabattical will come to an end either Sunday or Monday night.

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533 comments

533 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

  1. C@tmomma

    ItzaDream,
    I’m in Vietnam – middle of the Mekong delta.

    Barney is in Saigon. 🙂

  2. Monica Lynagh

    Caught us unawares, William.
    By the by, does the surge in One Nation voting intention spread evenly across the country, or is it concentrated in different areas, or do we not yet know?

  3. C@tmomma

    I’m liking these numbers simply because it’s getting to the stage that the Coalition have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Bill Shorten and Labor and still the ALP is prevailing.

    Though we are yet to see the first Newspoll I just don’t think it will be really really bad for Labor. It’s the Coalition that have been screwing things up.

    What I will be interested to see is if Malcolm Turnbull gets a sympathy bounce in his Approval rating because the Don was rude to him. 🙂

  4. Monica Lynagh

    C@T
    Barney who?

  5. CTar1

    C@

    Barney is in Saigon.

    I think he said actually somewhere in the sticks west of Saigon near the Cambodian border.

  6. confessions

    When are we going to see a resumption of regular polling? This is effectively a government in crisis with a weak, ineffectual leader barely in charge of its partyroom, a Senate it can’t get legislation through, and MHRs willfully undermining their leader left, right and centre.

    If this was a Labor govt we’d see polls coming out all over the place to reinforce the message of a dysfunctional, do nothing govt.

  7. Tom

    From the previous thread.

    So, as I know this question will arise – can the US Federal Court charge the POTUS with contempt of Court?

    We all know the question is going to be asked once the child throws it’s tantrum and lashes out on twitter….

    Tom.

  8. CTar1

    Tom

    can the US Federal Court charge the POTUS with contempt of Court?

    I think he is immune while in office.

  9. Just Me

    Rock solid trends on 2PP, and LNP bleeding primaries to ON.

    Works for me.

  10. paaptsef

    my guess is the the fox fakenews rupert news poll says Australia turnaound for our “brave” prime minister 49-51

  11. It's Time

    [can the US Federal Court charge the POTUS with contempt of Court?]
    I don’t know either. But it does raise the question of how would a court decision be enforced against the Presidential executive order if the President, AG etc. refuse to accept or recognise it if they don’t like it. Surely yhat would be an (in)action which a tantrum throwing Trump would consider.

  12. poroti

    C@tmoma

    the Coalition have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Bill Shorten and Labor and still the ALP is prevailing.

    A couple of songs for Bill and Labor . Well the titles anyway 🙂
    “Elton John – I’m Still Standing”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHwVBirqD2s
    “I Will Survive. Gloria Gaynor’
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNDl41HfvxI
    .
    Tubthumping I get knocked down, (but I get up again
    You are never gonna keep me down)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI8zPbEHRl0

  13. Monica Lynagh

    Weeeeell,
    Suppose we’re just going to wait for some polls. aren’t we?
    Other than that, it’s speculation about what Trump and his henchpersons will inflict on the world.
    It’s clear that Australia is just small beer now that Trump is putting America fitst.
    We’re just a parasite, doncha know?

  14. It's Time

    Fess

    The Slate article was interesting but it seems no one is prepared to contemplate Trump taking the nuclear option of ignoring a court ruling, potentially even a Supreme Court ruling. Do they really think a thwarted Trump would back down?

  15. C@tmomma

    Verrry interesting, but kinda predictable. For I have just read this in a missive from the Liberal bunker:

    I’ve heard whispers from different places (places, plural) that Turnbull’s papers are stamped, and that the push is on to get rid of him by Easter, or before the budget in May at the latest. The sticking point seems to be who to replace him with. If Turnbull even wants to see the year out, the time it takes the forces lining up against him to coalesce around a candidate is the amount of sand that remains in the hourglass.

  16. C@tmomma

    Thank you, poroti. 🙂

  17. dave

    Insiders tomorrow or next week ?

  18. C@tmomma

    Interesting perspective on Trump’s Neo American Isolationism, from the same Liberal insider:

    What many people forget, too, is that prior to 1941, the US was quite content to dwell in splendid isolation, and leave the rest of the world largely to itself: this could offer a clue to why, after decades of global military activity over the past 75 years and being co-opted by most of the free world to act as its guarantor, the independent, isolationist message of the Trump platform resonated as strongly as it did. In short, it was a pitch for America to return to a more traditional view of itself.

  19. CTar1

    ML

    We’re just a parasite, doncha know?

    Yes. We’re a useful part of the window dressing.

  20. confessions

    It’s Time:

    As the article asserts, it isn’t a straightforward matter. And this is Trump we’re talking about. He arguably raises more questions that perhaps wouldn’t be present in cases of normal presidents simply because his team is impervious to reality and has shown they are prepared to dig in. Personally the only way he’s going is because Congressional Republicans wake up and decide he has to go.

  21. confessions

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    35 mins ·
    Ross Gittins: With Malcolm Turnbull desperate to keep burning coal for electricity, just how important is the mining industry to our economy? Short answer: not nearly as much as it wants us to believe, and has conned our politicians into believing.

    Exhibit A: Western Australia. Our economy was so tied to the mining sector, that now it’s abating and we’ve lost our AAA credit rating.

  22. Tom

    Poroti and C@t, in the same vein of music for our Bill;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5kisPBwZOM

    Tom.

  23. shiftaling

    “The sticking point seems to be who to replace him with.”

    Pure gold. I wonder if the party hacks are completely oblivious to what such a situation reveals about their fitness to govern. Anyone but Turnbull except, wait there is no one

    What an enticing option to sell to the voters hah!

  24. don

    William:

    Also of note is that One Nation’s upward trend shows no signs of abating, with the party now level with the Greens.

    The Greens must be beside themselves.

    We can expect all sorts of finger pointing and internal divisions leaked.

  25. TPOF

    C@t

    it’s getting to the stage that the Coalition have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Bill Shorten and Labor and still the ALP is prevailing.

    They have actually gotten to the point that their only strategy is to convince the public that Bill Shorten is worse than Malcolm Turnbull.

  26. don

    The gunfight at the OK corral between Trump and the US legal system now seems inevitable.

    I am amazed that it has blown up so quickly.

    But when is it going to happen?

    We live in interesting times.

  27. citizen

    I can’t see Turnbull getting more than a temporary popularity bounce following his run-in with Trump. The Liberal vote will probably stay the same at best.

    When talk of the Turnbull/Trump stoush has blown over, it’s back to the usual bad news for Malcolm. The internal Coalition fight over SSM that flared up today is but one example.

  28. rossmcg

    Confessions

    Gittins always seems to have facts that don’t suit the narrative.

    I suspect the Chamber of Minerals anti-Grylls ads will be on high rotation on the box again tonight.

    I am no particular fan of Grylls (he is a Nat after all ) but if he has outraged the miners and their cheersquad maybe he is not all bad.

  29. frednk

    Given just how incompetent they all are the attempt by the CPG to sell whoever comes after Turnbull is going to be a sight to behold.

  30. ItzaDream

    ML

    What are you doing in Vietnam ..

    Up the river on a 5Hp putt-putt looking for Col Kurtz. So sign of Barney either.

  31. C@tmomma

    It’s certainly not going to be Tony Abbott that is going to replace Turnbull. No matter how much he is jonesing for the top job again, or how many MP’s electorates he visits on his Comeback tour.

  32. frednk

    I think Morrison; he might make a fist of it. Deputy; Bishop of cause.

  33. zoidlord

    Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 2m2 minutes ago

    First on the White House agenda – the collapse of the global order. Next, war? | Jonathan Freedland

  34. zoidlord

    Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 1m1 minute ago

    Trump’s army secretary nominee Vincent Viola withdraws as candidate

  35. zoidlord

    @frednk

    I think there was some talk on PB not long back about Morrison being PM, more likely be true, and considering where the leaking has come from.

  36. zoidlord

    Steve Peers ‏@StevePeers 20h20 hours ago

    Blogged
    The White Paper on Brexit: As Bad as it Gets: http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/as-bad-as-it-gets-white-paper-on-brexit.html

    Rogue POTUS Staff ‏@RoguePOTUSStaff Feb 3

    We can confirm that POTUS is encouraging people to buy his brands in order to have the “right look” to work for his administration.

  37. ItzaDream

    Trying again – blame the heat :

    ML

    What are you doing in Vietnam

    Up the river on a 5Hp putt-putt looking for Col Kurtz.
    No sign of Barney either.

  38. Yabba88

    Re Ronald Ryan:
    There is very strong doubt about his guilt. Se http://www.ronaldryan.info/

    George Masterman QC, who was NSW ombudsman for many years carried out a forensic investigation into the case, and presented a one hour demolition on ABC TV. He pointed out that for Ryan to have fired the fatal shot he would have had to have been several metres in the air, and the warder who was shot would have had to have been running away from him, rather than towards him. One, and one only shot was heard by the tens of witnesses, and another warder testified that he had fired that shot from one of the gaol towers.

    Ryan was almost definitely innocent. There was no direct evidence of his guilt at all, no ballistics, no cartridge case, no bullet, no evidence of the gun he had being fired, and no corroborated confession statement. No statements at all, in fact, just police verbals.

  39. WeWantPaul

    I think the CME is massively overdoing it and risking a backlash. I had though Grills might have really got the brexit / Trump vibe and was set to milk it. One of my colleagues at work suggested he has come to a nuclear war but only brought a stake knife. We will see if he has got any more antiswamp policies yet.

  40. C@tmomma

    And from the other side of the Trump clothing aisle comes this:

    Nordstrom Stopped Carrying Ivanka Trump Because No One Was Buying It

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/02/03/nordstrom-stopped-carrying-ivanka-trump-because-no-one-was-buyin/

    🙂

  41. C@tmomma

    Love it!
    Resist.
    The Fightback begins.

    Donald Trump Roasted By Swedish Deputy PM With Alternative All-Woman Law-Signing Photo

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/02/04/swedish-deputy-pm-roasts-donald-trump-with-alternative-all-woman/

  42. zoomster

    Yabba

    As I understand it, there didn’t need to be any proof he shot anyone.

    In law, if you are committing a crime (in this case, escaping from prison) and the crime results in someone’s death – even if you didn’t kill them – then you can be charged with murder.

    The logic is that that person wouldn’t have died if you hadn’t broken the law.

    Someone who was just doing their job died because Ryan tried to escape.

    *** Huge emphasis here that I do not and never will support the death penalty!

  43. bemused

    zoomster @ #46 Saturday, February 4, 2017 at 10:08 pm

    Yabba
    As I understand it, there didn’t need to be any proof he shot anyone.
    In law, if you are committing a crime (in this case, escaping from prison) and the crime results in someone’s death – even if you didn’t kill them – then you can be charged with murder.
    The logic is that that person wouldn’t have died if you hadn’t broken the law.
    Someone who was just doing their job died because Ryan tried to escape.
    *** Huge emphasis here that I do not and never will support the death penalty!

    Then Walker was equally guilty and in addition Walker committed another murder, a cold blooded murder, while they were on the run.
    Makes no sense to hang Ryan and not Walker.

  44. John Reidy

    just remember ItzaDream, “Never get out of the boat”.

    Also Keane quoted the the movie around 6 months ago, when talking about that weeks events in Canberra:
    CHIEF
    “Did you find a CO, captain ?”
    WILLARD
    “There’s no fucking CO here. Let’s just
    get going.”

  45. bemused

    Attended a barbecue with my local Federal Member and Bill Shorten this afternoon.
    I am lousy at counting crowds but I reckon at least a couple of hundred present.
    The barbecue was in a reserve and in addition to ALP members being invited, invitations were circulated to residents in the area resulting in about 30 or so coming and several expressing interest in joining the team.
    Bill Shorten had run another meeting in the morning at Berwick and I don’t know where he was off to after out barbecue. He is certainly not taking it easy.

  46. zoomster

    bemused

    Quite possibly they should have; all I know about the case is in my comment!

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