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Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

In the first Newspoll of the year, surging support for One Nation drains four points from the Coalition and widens its deficit on two-party preferred.

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The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor with a lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady) – and, impliedly, One Nation rather a lot. Notwithstanding his newly elevated international profile, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, with approval up one to 33% and disapproval down one to 54%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-30, little different from the 41-32 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1734. Hat tip to the always reliable James J.

UPDATE: One Nation is said to be on 8%, and from what I can gather, this is related in The Australian’s report and not in the tables. This is important, because it suggests that Newspoll’s opening question continues to limit response options to the major parties, the Greens and others, with those opting for the latter prompted to be more specific. This would, if anything, tend to result in their support being underestimated. By contrast, the Western Australian state poll published on Friday included One Nation up front.

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1410 comments

1,410 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

  1. Question

    WB,

    The new thread link goes to the 52-48 of last year.

  2. Boerwar

    William
    The ‘new thread’ link links to an older post.

  3. Greg McAuliffe

    On a terribly hot and sticky evening in Western Sydney,with no air con,a bit of news to smile at.Turbull is toast. Can the Coalition please bring back Abbott,let the joke continue as I want to hear Abbot say he’ll shirtfront Trump.

  4. Boerwar

    Oh. What Q said already.

  5. Desert Qlder

    From previous thread:

    My mother-in-law has been critical of Shorten with the ‘faceless man, backstabber’ routine. I have taken her opinion seriously as she is a staunch Labor voter, teacher and self made woman.

    However, on her last visit she said during one of Shorten’s PCs, “he is very calm!” The exclamation point was valid in this case.

    This demonstrated to me that even Labor people who were not Shorten supporters have noted his qualities regarding stability.

    I refuse to be concerned by PPM.

  6. Desert Qlder

    From previous thread:

    My mother-in-law has been critical of Shorten with the ‘faceless man, backstabber’ routine. I have taken her opinion seriously as she is a staunch Labor voter, teacher and self made woman.

    However, on her last visit she said during one of Shorten’s PCs, “he is very calm!” The exclamation point was valid in this case.

    This demonstrated to me that even Labor people who were not Shorten supporters have noted his qualities regarding stability.

    I refuse to be concerned by PPM.

  7. zoomster

    Yeah, had the same ‘back to 2016’ experience, had to re log in to get back here…

  8. confessions

    William:

    You totally farked the link to new thread.

  9. Vogon Poet

    Newspoll will need to re-scale their graph, 54/46 won’t fit 🙂

  10. zoomster

    (William makes notes in his behavioural study about the efforts posters will make to find the newest thread, even when misdirected….)

  11. Steve777

    William – that was quick.

    From previous thread:
    William – that was quick.

    From the orevious thread:

    Great news. Would love to see it in a real election. The Dark Side, the agents of Big Money, the spivs, the shonks, the bigots, thoroughly trounced.

    Hasn’t happened in a real election since 1946. Closest since then 1983 (53.2%). What I’d really like is the 1943 result – wipe the (ex-nuptuals) out:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia

  12. confessions

    zoomster:

    Lucky for William we’re all in 😀

  13. It's Time

    No sympathy for president trumble?

  14. Sohar

    I remember Bill and Kevin poo-pooing a GetUp commissioned Reachtel in mid-January showing 54-46. Every poll this year has been 54-46 – so much for that. The only surprise is that it isn’t 58-42, given the sheer incompetence of Turnbull and co.

  15. Darn

    (From previous thread)

    For those not happy with Shorten’s netsat figures just remember that Abbott was elected PM in a landslide in 2013 with figures similar to that.

  16. John Reidy

    Rather I think the net satisfaction figures are more significant than PPM.
    The fact the the Libs trail badly and consistently on 2pp and Turnbull has poor satisfaction figures is a killer.

    Given PHON’s implied rise the LNP right will be mightily unhappy with their , as Trump would say, ‘so-called’ leader.

    Williams 2pp trend line will continue its upwards (for Labor) trajectory.

  17. matt31

    At no point did Newspoll poll voting intentions for Palmer United. I wonder at what point would they make a decision to poll voting intentions for One Nation!

  18. C@tmomma

    Primaries: Coalition 35, Labor 36, Greens 10

    Yes, I’m worried what PHON + NXT + Others is distributed as too.

  19. John Reidy

    By netsat figures I actually mean Turnbull’s approve/dissaprove.

  20. Steve777

    The Liberals will make One Nation an offer they can’t refuse (in the goid sense fir them). They’ll happily shift further right if that’s what it takes, which is where they mostly want to go. In any case, most One Nation candidates are Liberals and Nationals who think their old parties aren’t right wing enough.

    I don’t think Labor will get anything like 50% of One Nation preferences next time round.

  21. Leroy Lynch

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/newspoll-hanson-on-the-rise-as-coalition-support-dives/news-story/7e0b701bfa1fcd912a3ef44dd1fa1b37

    Newspoll: Hanson on the rise as Coalition support dives
    The Australian 10:24PM February 5, 2017
    PHILLIP HUDSON

    The Coalition’s support has collapsed to the lowest level since Malcolm Turnbull toppled Tony Abbott as prime minister, with the government trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in two-party terms as parliament resumes amid increasing voter disillusionment about the major parties.

    The first Newspoll for the year, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals a record 29 per cent of people would not give their first preference vote in the House of Representatives to the Coalition or Labor.

    ………………….

    But the Newspoll survey of 1734 people taken from last Thursday to yesterday shows there has been no gain for Labor or lift for Bill Shorten, with the ALP’s primary vote unchanged at 36 per cent since early ­December and a drop in personal support for the Labor leader.

    The Greens are also unchanged at 10 per cent.

    Support has surged for independents and minor parties from 15 to 19 per cent. Within this group Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has a national primary vote of 8 per cent, which is the same level of support it achieved at the 1998 federal election. Senator Hanson yesterday talked up her hopes of One Nation one day forming government.

    National support for the Nick Xenophon Team is at 2 per cent, although it is about 20 per cent in South Australia.

    Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor enjoys a massive two-party-preferred lead of 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent. This is the seventh consecutive Newspoll where Labor has been in front and the worst result for the government under Mr Turnbull’s leadership.

  22. Vogon Poet

    Maybe Newspoll will just drop the greens and replace them with ON as they’re polling higher ?

  23. brisoz

    So LNP dead in the water? Not yet I don’t think.

  24. Henry

    Turbull had a very nice shit eating grin with that interview with Oakes, which was fairly passive overall.
    Dead man walking, he’s cactus and sort of knows it, has that multi millionaire’s disdain about it all. “Well at least I have will always Point Piper”.
    Thirty three degrees here still in the inner west in Sydney.
    Fark.

  25. citizen

    President Tumbrill of Austria certainly has a lot to worry about on the Newspoll figures. Is there actually a PHON figure in Newspoll (ref. Hudson’s article below)?

    Oz latest:
    Hanson on rise as Coalition dives
    10:30PMPHILLIP HUDSON
    The first Newspoll for 2017 is in and it contains little joy for Malcolm Turnbull or the Coalition.

  26. davidwh

    ON’s national primary vote is 8% according to the Aussie front page for tomorrow

  27. Libertarian Unionist

    Thirty three degrees here still in the inner west in Sydney.

    It started rising again about 2 hours ago – wtf is with that? Radiation from Fukushima?

  28. TPOF

    brisoz @ #23 Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:38 pm

    So LNP dead in the water? Not yet I don’t think.

    Yeah. Still cooking.

    Mind you, it’s hard to see how a totally clueless Government like this could come back. I’ve seen plenty of governments tank in the polls because of unpopular decisions or mishandling of particular situations, but I’ve never seen one as pointless and divided as this one.

    There is simply nothing there.

  29. Sohar

    PHON = 8%; Greens = 10%; and the guy who looks like a hairdressing model = 2% (20% in SA)

  30. citizen

    [Davidwh
    Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:41 pm
    ON’s national primary vote is 8% according to the Aussie front page for tomorrow]

    I’m often a bit slow to post and get caught out by those with nimbler fingers and faster brains!

  31. Steve777

    Another hot night in Sydney. 34 degrees at Olympic Park, 31 on the breezy headland at Observatory Hill.

    I like warm weather and don’t like the cold, but this is becoming a worry.

  32. davidwh

    Citizen I think William was faster than both of us 🙂

  33. brisoz

    @TPOF

    Yes, but they still manage to 46 TPP…

  34. confessions

    ON’s national primary vote is 8% according to the Aussie front page for tomorrow

    I wonder if it’s like the Greens vote in that they get support in between elections, but come polling day, don’t get anything like this in actual votes. I hope so.

  35. Question

    Sohar
    Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:31 pm
    Every poll this year has been 54-46 – so much for that. The only surprise is that it isn’t 58-42, given the sheer incompetence of Turnbull and co.

    Same here. You just can’t be perpetually shooting your feet off and expect your polling to go up. It would not surprise me if the Trump stuff has saved a point or two, at least on the netsat’s and PPM.

  36. matt31

    I’m not convinced Labor will get a 50 percent preference flow fron PHON again at the next election, but it will still be nothing remotely close to the sort of flow Labor get from the Greens. Plenty who are listening to some of One Nation’s messages, particularly on immigration and Islam, are not necessarily right leaning on everything. This, and the fact that some of PHON’s support I believe is about anti incumbency, will mean Labor still getting a reasonable share of their preferences. I think it unlikely that PHON would lock themselves in to a preference deal that would potentially alienate some of their supporters, just as NXT have avoided doing deals in the lower house.

  37. C@tmomma

    Time for the Liberal Party to bring out their folder marked ‘Pauline Hanson and James Ashby’ and resurrect ‘Australians for Honest Democracy’, or whatever the Tony Abbott front group for the ‘Get Hanson’ unit was called, methinks. 😉

  38. theintellectualbogan

    Continuing on the antivax discussion from the last thread, I live near Mundaring and can report that the area is a hotbed of rich hippydom, where seemingly intelligent and well educated individuals give headspace to an astonishing variety of half-baked, contradictory and bizarre beliefs.

  39. cupidstunt

    34 degrees in Sydney area.Apparently climate change doesnt exist according to the RWNJs.

  40. Question

    C@Tmomma
    Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:55 pm
    Time for the Liberal Party to bring out their folder marked ‘Pauline Hanson and James Ashby’

    Make a nice change from “Labor” and “Shorten”, which is what they spend most of their time talking about now.

  41. It's Time

    I wonder what the State by State distribution of ON looks like. I speculate that ON would have high figures in disillusioned States like Qld, WA and NSW pushing over 10%.

  42. Steve777

    Australians for Honest Politics indeed. An Orwellian title if ever there was one. Abbott had and had no objection to Pauline’s message, the oroblem was she was moving in on his mates’ turf.

  43. john smith

    For the love of God people…
    Imagine if it cost US. $210 To obtain $Au6.95 worth of amoxcill for a 2 year old child?
    I waited 2 hours in San Diego, paid $130 plus swabs and…
    $USc 70 for amoxcill.

    $70 for a FREE Drug…
    $210 and 2 hours for a dude San-Diagonal drug for a 2 year old child.
    GREATEST COUNTRY ON EARTH AUSTRALIA.
    THIS IS FREE HERE.
    PENICILLIN COST $ 6 BUCKS IN MY COUNTRY.

  44. cupidstunt

    Turnbull will never pull back that deficit as he has nothing on his agenda to do so.Hes fucked just like Abbott was.

  45. William Bowe

    I wonder what the State by State distribution of ON looks like.

    Here’s at least some sort of pointer:
    https://d31fjbthwxlyse.cloudfront.net/blogs.dir/6/files/2017/01/deluxe-bt2019-2017-01-09.png

  46. C@tmomma

    Steve777,
    And the only thing holding the Liberals back from targeting James Ashby is his links to them and their Dirt Unit!

  47. kevjohnno

    [ Boerwar
    4. There is some sort of hole that the engineers think may have been caused by melting fuel. It is not clear to me that the hole is not actually a hole through the wall of the containment vessel. ]

    The “hole” is in the platform under the reactor pressure vessel not the containment structure. As the platform is a metal grate it already had a lot of holes in it so while the slumped area shows that at least part of the core has melted through the bottom of the pressure vessel and through part of the platform it does not directly impact on the containment .

    It does however affect the cleanup. The plans & cost estimates were already just pie it the sky types but you can bet that the real costs will keep blowing out.

  48. C@tmomma

    Good to see WA PHON numbers not as high as I thought they may be. The home town effect seems to be boosting PHON in Queensland the most.

  49. cupidstunt

    What could the Fibs promise at the next election that would change anyones mind? Jobson Groethe and other slogans wont work anymore.They are DOOMED in the words of Tony Burke.

  50. citizen

    [C@Tmomma
    Sunday, February 5, 2017 at 10:55 pm
    Time for the Liberal Party to bring out their folder marked ‘Pauline Hanson and James Ashby’ and resurrect ‘Australians for Honest Democracy’, or whatever the Tony Abbott front group for the ‘Get Hanson’ unit was called, methinks.

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