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Queensland Politics

Feb 11, 2017

Galaxy: Labor 31, LNP 33, One Nation 23 in Queensland; ReachTEL: 53-47 to LNP

The latest Queensland state poll finds One Nation continuing to tear strips off both parties' shares of the primary vote.

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Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of state voting intention of Queensland, the most eye-catching result of which is that One Nation is at 23% of the primary vote, up seven points on the last such poll in early November. Both major parties are down four points, Labor to 31% and the Liberal National Party to 33%, with the Greens on 8% and Katter’s Australian Party on 3%. Labor maintains its lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, but such numbers have to be regarded as suspect with the non-major party vote as high as it is. The rise of One Nation appears to have encouraged a “none of the above” response for preferred premier, on which Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead over Tim Nicholls narrows from 46-28 to 39-27. Palaszczuk is down three on approval to 41% and two on disapproval to 37%, and Nicholls is down four to 27% and up four to 39%. No information yet about sample size and field work dates.

UPDATE: A ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the LNP with a two-party lead of 53-47, but is quite a lot more like the Galaxy poll in terms of One Nation support, which is at 21.3%. A question on whether the state would be better off if One Nation had seats in parliament records 40.4% for yes and 35.8% for no. Pauline Hanson has an approval rating of 37.2% and a disapproval rating of 38.9%. Despite the two-party preferred, Annastacia Palaszczuk’s performance was rated above average by 60.4%, below average by 35.7%; the corresponding figures for Tim Nicholls are 48.1% and 30.3%. No primary votes at this stage, but stay tuned.

UPDATE 2: ReachTEL’s primary votes, inclusive of a follow-up forced preference question for the undecided, are Labor 30.9%, Liberal National Party 33.2%, One Nation 22.3% and Greens 7.0% – all but identical to Galaxy’s numbers, despite the radically different two-party results. ReachTEL’s preferences are respondent-allocated, breaking 53.7-46.3 to the LNP among minor party and independent voters, whereas Galaxy’s are 56-44 in favour of Labor – based, I think, on averaged preference flows from the past three elections. The sample sizes were 867 for the Galaxy poll and 2199 for ReachTEL.

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21 comments

21 thoughts on “Galaxy: Labor 31, LNP 33, One Nation 23 in Queensland; ReachTEL: 53-47 to LNP

  1. briefly

    The pop-right may end up consuming the LNP. Maybe we should see the LNP as proto-ON.

    I wonder what would happen to the LNP’s federal representation if ON support were to carry through from the State scene….

  2. Jacob HSR

    If Pauline does become Premier of QLD, she must put in anti-immigration policies at the state level:

    Charge 457 visa staff $10,000/year for car registration and ban foreigners from driving trucks on QLD roads. Along with charging foreigners massive stamp duties for buying a house in QLD. And charging every kid of every 457 visa worker massive fees for studying in a QLD government school.

    Reserve certain jobs for Aussies if they can: gardening and cleaning at QLD government schools, delivering goods via ute, van, car, in QLD.

  3. Socrates

    Interesting that at 23% PHON’s vote is remarkably similar to Trump’s actual vote at the 2016 US election, given that Trump only got 46% of the popular vote and turnout was only 55%.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016

    If Paluszczuk loses, following the train drivers fiasco and a few others, Stirling Hinchliffe may have cost her government as much as Hanson will have. The LNP remains a joke in Qld in terms of serious leadership contenders IMO.

    Finally I find it sad to see the economic damage now being wrought in Qld following an overreliance on coal. Adani shows the delusion goes on.

  4. Joe

    Jacob, that would be of extremely dubious constitutionality. Immigration is a federal s 51 power, and laws with the policy objective of discouraging immigration would almost surely, in my opinion, be inconsistent under s 109.

  5. ajm

    Just checked the dead tree version of the Curious Snail and no mention of sample size, MOE, etc. Also nothing on the Galaxy website. Without those it shouldn’t be given much credibility. From the Galaxy website it appears the last poll published under their own brand was for QLD 9/10 Nov last year. Sample for that one was 899. Everything since then on their website is Newspoll’s branded.

    I sometimes wonder if media outlets get polling companies to do a number of polls at the same time and pick the one that suits their narrative to publish. This one just seems to fit the Curious Snail’s current campaigning too closely.

  6. Jack A Randa

    Very like the 1998 election results except that the Greens have now taken more of Labor’s votes. In 1998 it was Labor 38.9%, Greens 2.4%, Lib+Nat 31.3%, ON 22.7%. Could produce a similar result – Labor forming government with the support of Wello. And then when the ON members meet each other, them deciding that they don’t like each other very much and splitting several ways. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

  7. Kevin Bonham

    jack a randa @ #7 Saturday, February 11, 2017 at 10:18 am

    Very like the 1998 election results except that the Greens have now taken more of Labor’s votes. In 1998 it was Labor 38.9%, Greens 2.4%, Lib+Nat 31.3%, ON 22.7%. Could produce a similar result – Labor forming government with the support of Wello. And then when the ON members meet each other, them deciding that they don’t like each other very much and splitting several ways. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

    I am going to do some detailed analysis on the similarities and differences with 1998 and this poll but once you throw in the 3% for KAP and the LNP being up slightly on the combined Lib/Nat vote, I strongly suspect this poll would translate to a One Nation balance of power.

  8. Kevin Bonham

    ajm @ #6 Saturday, February 11, 2017 at 7:00 am

    Just checked the dead tree version of the Curious Snail and no mention of sample size, MOE, etc. Also nothing on the Galaxy website. Without those it shouldn’t be given much credibility. From the Galaxy website it appears the last poll published under their own brand was for QLD 9/10 Nov last year. Sample for that one was 899. Everything since then on their website is Newspoll’s branded.
    I sometimes wonder if media outlets get polling companies to do a number of polls at the same time and pick the one that suits their narrative to publish. This one just seems to fit the Curious Snail’s current campaigning too closely.

    I don’t think media would waste such money. They can always spin a particular poll result to make it sound interesting even when it isn’t. In the present case I suspect the poll is accurate and doesn’t need to be spun. Besides if they wanted to do a bunch of polls and pick the best one they would probably use someone cheaper than Galaxy.

  9. Jack A Randa

    Kevin, re ON balance of power. Certainly among the possibilities, but then you have to throw in my other prediction, in which I am quite confident – “when the ON members meet each other, them deciding that they don’t like each other very much and splitting several ways”. What then???

  10. Toorak Toff

    An added complication is that optional preferences will not apply at the next election. How that plays out is anyone’s guess, but the informal vote almost certainly will go up.

  11. Jacob HSR

    Joe, WA charges the kids of some 457 visa staff steep fees for studying in government schools.

    Foreign students are not eligible for concession train tickets in some states of AUS.

    And some states in AUS charge foreigners double or triple stamp duty for buying an Aussie house.

    So I guess Pauline could do all those things plus refuse to give truck driving licences to foreigners.

  12. Kevin Bonham

    jack a randa @ #10 Saturday, February 11, 2017 at 11:58 am

    Kevin, re ON balance of power. Certainly among the possibilities, but then you have to throw in my other prediction, in which I am quite confident – “when the ON members meet each other, them deciding that they don’t like each other very much and splitting several ways”. What then???

    Entirely possible they could disintegrate again. Probably there would be some different causal factor this time. I didn’t think they hated each other last time, more that they hated head office telling them what to do.

  13. ajm

    Still no sample size. I reckon about 300 – why else would they be concealing it?

  14. William Bowe

    I can assure you the sample size will have been at least 800. The Courier-Mail is often a bit lazy about publishing details, but these polls they commission from Galaxy invariably follow the same format. I should have a definitive answer for you tomorrow.

  15. Deano DD

    Ok so galaxy call you and they have your name, phone number address and a lot of other details and ask who you will vote for, many will vote one nation, but be embarrassed to admit it (ask an American if they voted for trump and few will fess up)
    I think her support is very much higher than polls indicate

  16. Kevin Bonham

    ReachTEL 53-47 to LNP with PHON on 21.3% but unclear if this is before or after redistribution of undecided.

    https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/830694513760944128

  17. William Bowe

    For those still paying attention, my latest update to the post fills the gaps. Remarkably, the two pollsters’ primary votes are all but identical.

  18. Leroy Lynch

    The federal portion of the QLD galaxy poll, note this time the sample size is mentioned.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-needs-pauline-hanson-to-stay-in-power-galaxy-poll/news-story/bd637a291eb9c777f8154e73032319b8

    Malcolm Turnbull needs Pauline Hanson to stay in power: Galaxy poll
    Renee Viellaris, The Courier-Mail
    February 14, 2017 1:00am

    PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull faces relying on Pauline Hanson to stay in power, as a new poll reveals his ever-shrinking Queensland vote is at the mercy of One Nation.

    Support for the Turnbull Government in Queensland has slipped to 35 per cent, down a whopping eight points since last year’s election.

    The Hanson juggernaut’s primary vote has skyrocketed since the election from 5.5 per cent to 18 per cent in the latest Galaxy poll, taken exclusively for The Courier-Mail on February 8-9.

    The sample of 867 voters was taken on, and the day after, the Prime Minister delivered Bill Shorten a much-heralded verbal uppercut.

    It is widely thought that to win The Lodge, political parties need to win Queensland.

    Preferences based on the July election would give Mr Turnbull a narrow two-party-preferred win of 51-49.

    However, his success would be dependent on the preference flow from One Nation.

    The poll also reinforces bad news for Mr Shorten, with Labor’s primary vote falling from 30.9 per cent to 29 per cent. The Greens have also lost slight ground (8.8 per cent to 8 per cent).

    If an election were held today, Independents would win 10 per cent of the primary vote.

  19. Fargo61

    Kevin Bonham – I am just wondering how your more detailed analysis is progressing?
    I have looked back at the 1998 results and done some quick back of the envelope calculations and based on trends since it seems to me that PHON will likely win about 21 seats and possibly as many as 26.
    That would leave around 34 for ALP and up to 38 for LNP.
    That assumes most if not all present non ALP and LNP seats (IND & KAP) are lost by present members.

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