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WA election candidates and preference deals

Upper house preference tickets considered in detail, along with a quick look at much-discussed Liberal-One Nation preference deal.

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Nominations having closed on Friday, it emerges that the Western Australian state election has attracted a record number of candidates, details of which are outlined by Antony Green. The big news today and yesterday has been the Liberals’ preference deal with One Nation, which sees One Nation get Liberal preferences not just ahead of Labor, but also ahead of the Nationals. I have a paywalled piece on this in Crikey today:

Albany is a normally conservative seat that has been held for Labor against all odds by Peter Watson since 2001, when One Nation preferences were an important factor in helping him over the line. If history repeats itself in reverse in Albany, and the Liberals can hang on in Wanneroo, it might just be that the One Nation deal will indeed save Barnett’s bacon. However, the electoral implications don’t begin and end with the narrow question of preferences flows … it’s hard not to conclude that the deal is a destructive long-shot gamble by a government that believes itself to be in desperate straits.

The deadline for the parties to lodge their group voting tickets closed today – you can see the results in detail at the Western Australian Electoral Commission, or in somewhat more digestible form on the ABC site. Below is an attempt to boil most parties’ tickets (excluding independents, of which there are a great many), by considering the placement only of those candidates whose election is up in the air – in other words, excluding certain winners and certain losers. This means assuming Labor and Liberal win at least two seats in the three metropolitan regions. Other notable assumptions (in a lot of cases it wasn’t necessary to make any) are identified below. It’s entirely possible that a micro-party that has been given short shrift below may in fact prove to be in contention courtesy of preference snowballing – hopefully Antony Green will have results calculators in business soon to add a bit of clarity here.

Highlights: the Nationals effectively has the Greens ahead of the Liberals in Mining and Pastoral and South West; Family First has Labor ahead of Liberal (but not Nationals) in the three non-metropolitan regions.

Agricultural

Assumes the Nationals will win at least one seat.

Labor: Greens, Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
Family First: Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Greens, Shooters, One Nation.
Australian Christians: Shooters, One Nation, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation #1, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation #2, One Nation, Labor, Greens.
Nationals: Shooters, Liberal, Greens, Labor, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
Liberal: Shooters, One Nation, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
One Nation: Shooters, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Liberal Democrats: Shooters, Nationals, Labor, Liberal, One Nation, Greens.

East Metropolitan

Daylight Saving: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Liberal.
Liberal: One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Liberal Democrats: Liberal, One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Family First: Liberal, Labor, Greens, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Labor: Greens, Liberal, One Nation.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Australian Christians: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.

Mining and Pastoral

Assumes the Nationals and the Liberals each win at least one seat.

Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation #1, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation #2, Labor, Greens.
Australian Christians: Shooters, One Nation, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Labor: Greens, Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Shooters, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Greens: Labor, Nationals, Liberal, Shooters, One Nation.
Liberal: One Nation #1, Shooters, One Nation #2, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Nationals: Shooters, Greens, Liberals, Labor, One Nation.
Liberal Democrats: Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, Labor, One Nation, Greens.
Family First: Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Greens, Shooters, One Nation.

North Metropolitan

Labor: Greens, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Daylight Saving: Greens, Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Family First: Liberal, Greens, Labor, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Liberal: One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Animal Justice: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Liberal.
Liberal Democrats: Liberal, Labor, One Nation, Greens.
Australian Christians: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.

South Metropolitan

Socialist Alliance: Greens, Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Daylight Saving: Greens, Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Labor: Greens, Liberal, One Nation.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Australian Christians: Liberal, One Nation, Labor, Greens.
Liberal Democrats: Liberal, One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Greens: Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Animal Justice: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Liberal.
Liberal: One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Family First: Liberal, Labor, Greens, One Nation.

South West

Assumes One Nation aren’t in contention for a second seat, unlike Agricultural and Mining & Pastoral.

Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Nationals, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Family First: Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Greens, One Nation.
Labor: Greens, Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Nationals, Liberal, Shooters, One Nation.
Australian Christians: Shooters, One Nation, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Liberal: One Nation, Shooters, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
One Nation: Shooters, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Animal Justice: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Nationals, Liberal, Shooters.
Liberal Democrats: Nationals, Shooters, Labor, Liberal, One Nation, Greens.
Nationals: Shooters, Greens, Liberal, Labor, One Nation.

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29 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

West Australian is touting a ReachTEL they have coming out tomorrow.

Socrates
Guest
I posted a comment on this the other day on the main thread. Latest unemployment figures put WA worst in the nation for unemployment (6.5%), worse even than SA and Tasmania. This is on top of increasing part time employment and falling participation rate. The trend is pretty lousy too. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0 Is this making political news in WA? Even if One Nation were not befouling the air, you would think a State government facing an election would not be keen to have figures that bad. Also as I said, it shows beyond doubt that, having had the largest mining boom… Read more »
WeWantPaul
Guest
Of the voters I’m talking too (it is not a random sample, or even ‘every house in that street’ as it once was) there is quite a lot of ‘no we wont tell you who we are going to vote for but we certainly know who we are putting last. I don’t see any reason the one nation vote would collapse from the levels we’ve seen in the polling but by linking themselves to Colin ON may well have lost some votes (to other protest parties but if these people are telling me the truth they are not going to… Read more »
briefly
Guest
So is a result from 2001 a good guide to voting intention in 2017? In itself, not at all. Will the agricultural region record a protest vote? I doubt it. The rural sector is enjoying some of its best years ever in WA. Beef and lamb prices are at high levels. Wheat prices are down a bit but volumes are huge. If there is a zone where protest effects will be muted it is Agriculture. The contest there will be between the Libs and Nationals, as ever. Personally, I think the ON campaign will be highly repellant for most voters.… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

(NB my post was in reply to Briefly’s, I didn’t see Antony had posted in the meantime.)

Kevin Bonham
Guest
The most likely issue with PHON is that unless their polled vote implodes because their campaign is a shambles, then they will win a couple or so of the rural LegCo seats off raw quota or close enough to be put over on Liberal preferences. In the areas where their vote is well below quota they will probably get beaten by preference-harvesters or mainstream parties. I don’t know if being a rabble will cause the PHON vote to implode. A few years ago I would have said yes but if there is a dose of the Trump-voter mood going round… Read more »
Antony GREEN
Guest
In 2001 One Nation polled 22.0% in Agricultural Region, 13.9% in Mining and Pastoral and 14.2% in South-West. They are currently polling higher than the vote recorded in 2001. One Nation is going to elect members on first preferences and they don’t need Liberal preferences. The question in some regions is whether One Nation gets a second seat on Liberal preferences. In Agricultural Region and Mining and Pastoral Region, the quota for election has been reduced from 16.7% in 2001 to 14.3% today. In South West it has increased from 12.5% in 2001 to 14.3% today. A repeat of 2001… Read more »
briefly
Guest
Kevin, for all the attention that On are getting, most voters are totally aghast at the idea they will hold any power in the WA parliament. If the Lib PV drops enough, they will have too few prefs to pass on to ensure the election of ON candidates. Perhaps the proliferation of small parties and independents, the likely improvement in the Labor, NP and Green PV, the shambles that is the ON campaign and the disgust with the Libs will all work to prevent ON securing any seats. Of course, this will mean that minor voices will also replace Libs.… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
bird of paradox @ #17 Thursday, February 16, 2017 at 1:43 am Kevin (or anyone else): say if you could fix exactly one thing about WA’s upper house – remove GVTs, or end malapportionment – which one? If you gave me abolition as a third option in preference to keeping one of GVTs or malapportionment, I’d take it! That’s although I’m generally in favour of having two houses. If I could kill just one of GVTs and malapportionment right now I think I’d have to kill malapportionment. It’s a really tough decision but I see more hope for a GVT… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

In South Metro I found a scenario where Aus Christians with 2% beats One Nation with 12.2%. I was looking at this because #2 PHON in South Metro has just had his super-grotty social media history exposed.

briefly
Guest

Antony’s calculator is brilliant!

Playing around a bit, if the Lib LC vote falls sufficiently, ON will struggle to collect the prefs they need to win seats. So the obvious strategy is to implore Lib-leaners not to vote Lib this time in the LC…..may well work.

Disasterboy
Guest

Rewi. I hear you. There are so many so-called Christian political units, that it’s really not clear which collection of them was being referred.

I was noting the exceptional splinter, merely for collegial information, rather than to wholeheartedly naysay Toorak Toff.

Bird of paradox
Guest
So, we could end up with a right-wing biased version of the senate. Yippee! Kevin (or anyone else): say if you could fix exactly one thing about WA’s upper house – remove GVTs, or end malapportionment – which one? I’m kinda undecided. I hate the fact that the Libs/Nats (or other assorted fruits and nuts) have a permanent majority, but if it wasn’t like that, then the Shooters would have the balance of power. (Then in alterna-2013, people would’ve been asking “who the hell is Rick Mazza, and how the hell did he get elected with 2618 votes?”) Anyone reckon… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

As for Fluoride Free WA I would not single out the Greens. Not a single party has preferenced FFWA below both majors and the Greens, and only the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have preferenced them below both majors.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
I’ve got: * Confirmation of Antony’s result re Fluoride Free WA though it took me 6-7 goes to get it. * That Australian Christians can win in E Metro (instead of Fluoride Free) off 2.2% even with PHON on 10% and Greens on what they got last time. * That Flux The System! can win in Mining and Pastoral off 1% with Shooters winning off less than 4% at the same time, and this can happen because Family First have preferenced Flux ahead of Australian Christians. One would not think Flux could actually get 1% and one would hope that… Read more »
Rewi
Guest

Disasterboy
The most significant political force for reunification of church and state in Western Australia resides within the WA Division of the Liberal Party (as reported by the West Australian), not Family First, so I think Toorak Toff’s comment stands.

Rewi
Guest

Anthony Green’s tweet on Flouride Free WA, on which his comment here epitomizes brevity being the soul of wit, suggests that they could win a spot in East Metro as a result of Greens preferences off a primary vote of 0.2%.
Outrage ensues, divers alarums.

Antony GREEN
Guest

Calculators now live http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/guide/calculator-upper/
Some serious preference harvesting going on by Fluoride Free WA

CML
Guest

Kakuru…wonderful comment! Says is all really.

kakuru
Guest

It’s sophistry to suggest that One Nation is not racist because they are against Muslims, and Islam is a religion not a race. This is like saying the Nazis were not actually racist because Judaism is a religion.

Toorak Toff
Guest

Jacob HSR:
“What race is One Nation against?”

The human race.

Disasterboy
Guest

Kevin Bonham
“I hope the WA Upper House gets an electoral system one of these days as opposed to a malapportioned Group Ticket demolottery.”
Agreed
And I do hope, as a Green voter, that Nationals preferences elect Robin Chapple and Diane Evers. Poetic justice.

Disasterboy
Guest

Toorak Toff
Monday, February 13, 2017 at 10:40 pm

Note that Family First is preferencing One Nation last.

Disasterboy
Guest
What if people want to put One Nation last in a group ticket box? Across All LC Regions; Family First, The Greens(WA) and WA Labor put One Nation last. Additional Options by LC Region are Agricultural: Ind. – Williamson East Metro: no other choices that put One Nation last Mining and Pastoral: no other choices that put One Nation last North Metro: Ind. – Ruzzi South Metro: Socialist Alliance, Ind. – Freeman, Ind. – Heslington, South-West: Flux the System, Ind. – Hartley, Ind. – Higgins, Seems if you are Conservative voter who wants to put One Nation last but does… Read more »
Jacob HSR
Guest

Toorak Toff, what race is One Nation against?

Matt
Guest

And so, one hopes, the scales fall from the eyes of all the “anti-establishment” voters who just loved themselves some Hansonism, to stick it to The Man and so on….hopefully, they’ll see that she’s just another grifting happy-clapper.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Diabolical stuff by the Nationals to send token preferences to the top Lib (who will probably pull quota and be elected straight off the top) and thus disguising that they are really preferencing the Greens in those two regions. But given the provocation who can blame them?

I hope the WA Upper House gets an electoral system one of these days as opposed to a malapportioned Group Ticket demolottery.

Toorak Toff
Guest

The so-called Christians are quite happy to preference the racist One Nation. Jesus would not be happy.

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