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WA election candidates and preference deals

Upper house preference tickets considered in detail, along with a quick look at much-discussed Liberal-One Nation preference deal.

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Nominations having closed on Friday, it emerges that the Western Australian state election has attracted a record number of candidates, details of which are outlined by Antony Green. The big news today and yesterday has been the Liberals’ preference deal with One Nation, which sees One Nation get Liberal preferences not just ahead of Labor, but also ahead of the Nationals. I have a paywalled piece on this in Crikey today:

Albany is a normally conservative seat that has been held for Labor against all odds by Peter Watson since 2001, when One Nation preferences were an important factor in helping him over the line. If history repeats itself in reverse in Albany, and the Liberals can hang on in Wanneroo, it might just be that the One Nation deal will indeed save Barnett’s bacon. However, the electoral implications don’t begin and end with the narrow question of preferences flows … it’s hard not to conclude that the deal is a destructive long-shot gamble by a government that believes itself to be in desperate straits.

The deadline for the parties to lodge their group voting tickets closed today – you can see the results in detail at the Western Australian Electoral Commission, or in somewhat more digestible form on the ABC site. Below is an attempt to boil most parties’ tickets (excluding independents, of which there are a great many), by considering the placement only of those candidates whose election is up in the air – in other words, excluding certain winners and certain losers. This means assuming Labor and Liberal win at least two seats in the three metropolitan regions. Other notable assumptions (in a lot of cases it wasn’t necessary to make any) are identified below. It’s entirely possible that a micro-party that has been given short shrift below may in fact prove to be in contention courtesy of preference snowballing – hopefully Antony Green will have results calculators in business soon to add a bit of clarity here.

Highlights: the Nationals effectively has the Greens ahead of the Liberals in Mining and Pastoral and South West; Family First has Labor ahead of Liberal (but not Nationals) in the three non-metropolitan regions.

Agricultural

Assumes the Nationals will win at least one seat.

Labor: Greens, Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
Family First: Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Greens, Shooters, One Nation.
Australian Christians: Shooters, One Nation, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation #1, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation #2, One Nation, Labor, Greens.
Nationals: Shooters, Liberal, Greens, Labor, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
Liberal: Shooters, One Nation, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
One Nation: Shooters, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Liberal Democrats: Shooters, Nationals, Labor, Liberal, One Nation, Greens.

East Metropolitan

Daylight Saving: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Liberal.
Liberal: One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Liberal Democrats: Liberal, One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Family First: Liberal, Labor, Greens, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Labor: Greens, Liberal, One Nation.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Australian Christians: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.

Mining and Pastoral

Assumes the Nationals and the Liberals each win at least one seat.

Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation #1, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation #2, Labor, Greens.
Australian Christians: Shooters, One Nation, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Labor: Greens, Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Shooters, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Greens: Labor, Nationals, Liberal, Shooters, One Nation.
Liberal: One Nation #1, Shooters, One Nation #2, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Nationals: Shooters, Greens, Liberals, Labor, One Nation.
Liberal Democrats: Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, Labor, One Nation, Greens.
Family First: Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Greens, Shooters, One Nation.

North Metropolitan

Labor: Greens, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Daylight Saving: Greens, Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Family First: Liberal, Greens, Labor, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Liberal: One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Animal Justice: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Liberal.
Liberal Democrats: Liberal, Labor, One Nation, Greens.
Australian Christians: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.

South Metropolitan

Socialist Alliance: Greens, Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
One Nation: Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Daylight Saving: Greens, Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Labor: Greens, Liberal, One Nation.
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Australian Christians: Liberal, One Nation, Labor, Greens.
Liberal Democrats: Liberal, One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Greens: Labor, Liberal, One Nation.
Animal Justice: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Liberal.
Liberal: One Nation, Greens, Labor.
Family First: Liberal, Labor, Greens, One Nation.

South West

Assumes One Nation aren’t in contention for a second seat, unlike Agricultural and Mining & Pastoral.

Shooters Fishers and Farmers: One Nation, Nationals, Liberal, Labor, Greens.
Family First: Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Greens, One Nation.
Labor: Greens, Shooters, Nationals, Liberal, One Nation.
Greens: Labor, Nationals, Liberal, Shooters, One Nation.
Australian Christians: Shooters, One Nation, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Liberal: One Nation, Shooters, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
One Nation: Shooters, Liberal, Nationals, Labor, Greens.
Animal Justice: Greens, Labor, One Nation, Nationals, Liberal, Shooters.
Liberal Democrats: Nationals, Shooters, Labor, Liberal, One Nation, Greens.
Nationals: Shooters, Greens, Liberal, Labor, One Nation.

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