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Today’s West Australian reports on a ReachTEL poll of 1706 respondents conducted for the Tourism Council across 15 marginal seats*, which – after exclusion of the 5% undecided – has Labor on 41.9% and the Liberals and Nationals between them on 36.4%, which compares with averaged results of 33.5% and 53.3% across the relevant seats in 2013. The Liberal and Nationals votes break down to 32.4% (48.1% in 2013) and 5.9% (5.2% in 2013, although it only fielded candidates in four of them). The Greens were on 7.2%, compared with 8.1%, and One Nation a rather modest 6.9%. The implied swing to Labor of around 12% sits pretty well with what I wrote in a paywalled Crikey article on Friday:

Following Barnett’s blowout win in 2013 and a mildly unfavourable redistribution, Labor faces a neat set of electoral mathematics, in which it must add 10 seats (including two it already holds, but which have been made notionally Liberal in the redistribution) to a base of 20 to reach a majority of 30 — which it would achieve on a uniform swing of almost exactly 10%. Given the statewide two-party result in 2013 was 57.3% to 42.7%, this suggests Labor will have to punch above its weight to get to where it needs. However, the available evidence suggests either that the swing is indeed at that level, or that it’s helpfully concentrated in the suburban marginals where the election stands to be decided … What’s more, Labor is confident that associating with Barnett has caused One Nation to go off the boil as well — at least to the extent that their utility as a source of preferences will be less than the Liberals were banking on.

* Albany, Balcatta, Belmont, Bicton, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Darling Range, Joondalup, Kalamunda, Mount Lawley, Perth, Pilbara, Southern River, Swan Hills and Wanneroo.

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26 comments

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C@tmomma
Guest

Aaaarrrggghhh!!! ‘Joondalup’ 😳

C@tmomma
Guest

I wonder if Briefly will have a report for us of the Liberal onslaught, with extra added ‘Hollywood’ Bishop, on his seat of Jonndalup today?

All of this last minute frantic frenzy by the Liberals will be for nought, especially as compared to Labor’s ground game which has been going on for months.

C@tmomma
Guest

Warm and fuzzy article about Mark McGowan, with lots of nice pictures of him and his family:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-04/wa-labor-leader-mark-mcgowan-discusses-life-outside-politics/8315748

Toorak Toff
Guest

Boring thread = exciting result?

silentmajority
Guest

I volunteered to phonebank today for the Perth ALP candidate. Better received than I expected. Especially by women.
I am heartened.

ShowsOn
Guest

WA ELECTION THREAD MOST BORING THREAD OF ALL TIME.

Rais
Guest

Kakuru you won’t need to bail WA out. Just a return to getting 70% of WA’s GST back instead of the present 30% will do the job.

Rais
Guest

Kakuru you won’t need to bail WA out. Just a return to getting 70% of WA’s GST back instead of the present 30% will do the job.

WeWantPaul
Guest

I don’t get the bottle of wine problem I’m quite happy for each candidate for all parties, indeed indies too, upper and lower house to deliver one or more bottles of WA wine to my house ….

grimace
Guest

Agree Seth, I’m on the campaign trail in Swan Hills and the feel I get is that it’s all over for Frank Alban.

Seth
Guest

Might be a bit quick to say, but I think the end result is without a doubt. Any chance for a comeback is lost to them.

brisoz
Guest
Fulvio Sammut
Guest

Oh, and while I’m on a roll, who can forget Malcolm George, Liberal candidate for Baldivis, who, in the middle of the election campaign, is now helping ASIC with their enquiries into a giant allegedly illegal Ponzi scheme run by his employer, colourful Perth identity Veronica McPherson of Macro which is accused of relieving millions of dollars from the pockets of devastated mum and dad investors in WA.

Gorkay King
Guest

Yeah, it seems campaign is not going well for Libs. Optics are bad.

Fulvio Sammut
Guest

The WA Liberals just cant win a trick at the moment.

They jump into bed with Pauline’s looney racists, and the primary votes of both parties take a plunge.

They invite Turnbull to make some soothing noises about the GST, and he babbles on about anything but, and then cuts and runs.

They run interference on McGowan’s radio interview by staging a phoney call from a “concerned citizen”, and it turns out the citizen’s only concern was to have himself elected as a Liberal candidate.

They select a high flying lawyer as a candidate in Mirrabooka, and she promptly doorknocks the electorate for votes, offering voters a bottle of wine as a … as a…. what?

The Emperor conducts a beachside visit to bask and be photographed in the reflected glory of a local swimming event. He ends up a laughing stock when a photo is taken of him grinning delightedly and inanely in the company of a bevy of beach beauties. Unfortunately the women turn out to be fifth columnists, with their arms scribbled with anti Liberal propaganda, clearly legible in the photo.

The Media suddenly awake from their torpor and realise an election is on, and rush to interview the Emperor, only to discover he is completely (metaphorically) naked. and intent on showing his appreciation of their uncritical and unquestioning past support by berating them. Apparently it is offensive to ask him any questions pertaining to his state of (metaphoric) undress or the vacuity of his party’s policies and of his own. ego driven decision making.

Now the Media are up in arms, and, remarkably, engaging in some journalism.

Mark, you are one lucky puppy.

kakuru
Guest

Rossmcg
“As Eric Ripper pointed out in the paper today, WA is basically broke. If it was a business people would be asking why bother.”

No problem. Us latte-drinking, avocado-smashing elites in NSW and Vic will bail out WA. Australia is returning to factory settings.

Socrates
Guest

The Liberals are acting very desperate if the polling is not as bad as reported.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-27/wa-liberal-candidate-wade-de-campo-lies-about-identity-on-radio/8307688

I wonder what their internal polls are saying?

Tricot
Guest

While Betty’s Jetty, the Footy Oval and the various expensive, yet to be opened hospitals – not to mention the new museum – are all added value to the community, it is not much to show for 8 years – wasted years – in office for Barnett. While the Feds helped pay for all the roads around the airport and filling in the hole between the city and Northbridge, the freeways have become car parks and Churchlands High School now has what?, 2000+ kids in demountables…………So much better could have been achieved in the fat years. Labor will have its hands full if it wins and the LNP will just borrow some more to add to the $38 billion debt to “fix” things up.

WeWantPaul
Guest

[Whoever wins it will be a tough decade here. People will have to reassess what they want the State government to do for them and what they are prepared to pay.

More of the same is not an option.]
The more important questions are as you say what do people want, what are the options and the tradeoffs and what are the payment options and terms. It is an excellent time for debt so long as you invest in good projects.

Rossmcg
Guest

As Eric Ripper pointed out in the paper today, WA is basically broke. If it was a business people would be asking why bother.

Whoever wins it will be a tough decade here. People will have to reassess what they want the State government to do for them and what they are prepared to pay.

More of the same is not an option.

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