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Not a moment too soon, you may now find (hopefully) an expanded Western Australian election guide herewith, featuring a comprehensive overview page and a region-by-region guide to the upper house, in addition to the long-established seat-by-seat guide to the lower house. To pre-empt your complaints: a) the site is playing up and you may intermittently find yourself encountering 404 errors, b) the map embeds may not be firing on all cylinders, and c) parts of the upper house guide could suffer more careful proof-reading. The first of these should resolve itself as the day progresses, and the second and third I’ll hopefully maybe have time to attend to at some point.

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Rossmore
Guest

Good luck to WA comrades tomorrow…. it’s time….

Rossmore
Guest

Good luck to WA comrades tomorrow…. it’s time….

imacca
Guest

Who here will be attending a Labor party post election party tomorrow night?

Nah..will head beach hen gardening after my shift on the booth then settle in at home for evening with bottle of something to enjoy. Have fun though. 🙂

grimace
Guest

Who here will be attending a Labor party post election party tomorrow night?

I’ll be at the Swan Hills Labor post election party.

Rossmcg
Guest

Just been robopolled for tomorrow by Reachtel.

Voting intention, age and gender the only questions.

Getting late …

Tricot
Guest

MQ – I have no argument with your analysis and wish it comes to fruition. The absolute worst outcome for Labor is to fall short by a seat or two or get a 1/2 seat majority with the minors controlling the Council. The LNP have been lagging Labor here for a long time – and consistently so – thus if polls mean anything at all, a Labor victory is the most likely outcome.

ausdavo
Guest
Matt Quinn – these are the seats most in play according to Sportsbet Odds: Seat Margin Odds (ALP to win) West Swan (*)LIB 0.9% 1.03 BelmontLIB 1.0% 1.03 Swan HillsLIB 3.7% 1.07 PerthLIB 2.8% 1.08 BalcattaLIB 7.1% 1.12 ForrestfieldLIB 2.2% 1.15 MorleyLIB 4.7% 1.17 Collie-Preston (*)LIB 2.9% 1.22 JoondalupLIB 10.4% 1.25 Southern RiverLIB 10.9% 1.30 WannerooLIB 11.0% 1.30 Mount LawleyLIB 8.9% 1.40 BunburyLIB 12.2% 1.50 BictonLIB 10.0% 1.83 KalamundaLIB 10.3% 1.83 Burns BeachLIB 11.3% 1.83 Darling RangeLIB 13.1% 1.83 JandakotLIB 18.3% 1.83 Murray-WellingtonLIB 12.0% 3.50 RivertonLIB 12.7% 3.75 DawesvilleLIB 12.7% 4.00 GeraldtonLIB 22.8% 4.00 KingsleyLIB 14.0% 6.00 HillarysLIB 16.0% 2.50… Read more »
Rossmcg
Guest

William
My understanding always has been the branch stacking was done by forces aligned with Johnson.

Matt Quinn
Guest
Tricot – If the overall WA polls are showing a big movement to the ALP, then I think it’s quite possible for it to be a wipeout for the Libs. Since we know that swings are not even, a not unreasonable scenario would be little movement in the western and river suburb electorates, and little (on the 2PP) in parts of regional WA where they’d usually like to burn ALP candidates at the stake in preference to voting for them (plus they have the fun of Lib v Nat in some cases). And there might not be much more to… Read more »
Jeremy Henderson
Guest

William – My abject apologies for casting aspersions! I was misreading the chart titles (down rather than up). You are, of course, perfectly correct!

David Walsh
Guest

I actually think Labor is the main threat in Hillarys.

Matt Quinn
Guest
In a normal election, I’d expect Hillarys to fall behind the Liberal candidate. But there seems to be a bit of discontent about Katsambaris’ pre-selection (he’s an associate of Moore MHR Ian Goodenough, and it seems that there may have been some branch stacking going on). With that, I’d think Hillarys is certainly a chance to move to the Independent column – similar to the 1996 Federal election where attempts to force unpopular candidates in Curtin and Pearce resulted in the previous Liberal MHRs winning as Independents. Tim Macknay – It’s been a long while since we sat about with… Read more »
David Walsh
Guest
13 to 20 sounds very precise, doesn’t it? I take it they’ve written off 13 seats as lost, with another seven in doubt. (If instead the figure was “15 to 20” that would sound more like an approximation.) So what are the 13? There are nine seats – including the two notionals – under 10%. It’s safe to assume they’re gone. That leaves four. That happens to be exactly the number the West reported last week as being last stand battlegrounds: Bicton, Kalamunda, Joondalup and Southern River. I’d say they’re gone as well. The remaining seven? I would guess Wanneroo,… Read more »
Tricot
Guest
I don’t think it is a good idea to get too carried away by translating favourable polls for Labor for some kind of wipe-out for Labor. Ten seats has always been a big hill to climb. It would be handy for Labor to have a buffer of 3-4 seats but having seen – and for a variety of reasons which may not apply in WA – Clinton losing in the US and Brexit getting up despite the prediction of many polls – some caution should be applied here too. Talk of 15 plus seats is optimistic in the extreme. What… Read more »
Rossmcg
Guest

Matt
Where do you place Hillarys? Johnston has a strong local following and could he surprise and hold out Katsambanis, who seems to have the has been been talked up as a future leader and according to William is a Cormann/Collier/Globalheart church candidate.

Matt Quinn
Guest
Up to 20 seats? Wow. I could find 15 possible seats, but the next four are a challenge. My initial 16 were Belmont, Forrestfield, Swan Hills, Balcatta, Morley, Perth, Joondalup, Wanneroo, Burns Beach, Southern River, Riverton, Kalamunda, Darling Range, Bicton, Mt Lawley and Bunbury. Four more? I’d guess Jandakot as it’s been talked about and Kingsley makes sense as part of a general Joondalup City area revolt, then two more? Geraldton to the Nats perhaps? Then the last one – would have to come from Dawesville, or perhaps Scarborough or Carine (there hasn’t been an ALP member in my area… Read more »
Paddy O
Guest
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