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Not a moment too soon, you may now find (hopefully) an expanded Western Australian election guide herewith, featuring a comprehensive overview page and a region-by-region guide to the upper house, in addition to the long-established seat-by-seat guide to the lower house. To pre-empt your complaints: a) the site is playing up and you may intermittently find yourself encountering 404 errors, b) the map embeds may not be firing on all cylinders, and c) parts of the upper house guide could suffer more careful proof-reading. The first of these should resolve itself as the day progresses, and the second and third I’ll hopefully maybe have time to attend to at some point.

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Rossmore
Guest

Good luck to WA comrades tomorrow…. it’s time….

Rossmore
Guest

Good luck to WA comrades tomorrow…. it’s time….

imacca
Guest

Who here will be attending a Labor party post election party tomorrow night?

Nah..will head beach hen gardening after my shift on the booth then settle in at home for evening with bottle of something to enjoy. Have fun though. 🙂

grimace
Guest

Who here will be attending a Labor party post election party tomorrow night?

I’ll be at the Swan Hills Labor post election party.

Rossmcg
Guest

Just been robopolled for tomorrow by Reachtel.

Voting intention, age and gender the only questions.

Getting late …

Tricot
Guest

MQ – I have no argument with your analysis and wish it comes to fruition. The absolute worst outcome for Labor is to fall short by a seat or two or get a 1/2 seat majority with the minors controlling the Council. The LNP have been lagging Labor here for a long time – and consistently so – thus if polls mean anything at all, a Labor victory is the most likely outcome.

ausdavo
Guest
Matt Quinn – these are the seats most in play according to Sportsbet Odds: Seat Margin Odds (ALP to win) West Swan (*)LIB 0.9% 1.03 BelmontLIB 1.0% 1.03 Swan HillsLIB 3.7% 1.07 PerthLIB 2.8% 1.08 BalcattaLIB 7.1% 1.12 ForrestfieldLIB 2.2% 1.15 MorleyLIB 4.7% 1.17 Collie-Preston (*)LIB 2.9% 1.22 JoondalupLIB 10.4% 1.25 Southern RiverLIB 10.9% 1.30 WannerooLIB 11.0% 1.30 Mount LawleyLIB 8.9% 1.40 BunburyLIB 12.2% 1.50 BictonLIB 10.0% 1.83 KalamundaLIB 10.3% 1.83 Burns BeachLIB 11.3% 1.83 Darling RangeLIB 13.1% 1.83 JandakotLIB 18.3% 1.83 Murray-WellingtonLIB 12.0% 3.50 RivertonLIB 12.7% 3.75 DawesvilleLIB 12.7% 4.00 GeraldtonLIB 22.8% 4.00 KingsleyLIB 14.0% 6.00 HillarysLIB 16.0% 2.50 Independent to Win You can see this suggests 13 seats at $1.50 or shorter for the ALP to win. There are 5 seats which are $1.83 ALP, $1.83 Lib which is line ball. Two have no One Nation. There are also 5 seats in which the ALP is quoted at $3.50 to $6.00 which they indicates may be in play depending on the variability of the swing. There is a One Nation in all but Kingsley. One other Seat – Hillarys shows a strong chance for the Independent @ 2.50. The remaining 8 LNP seats all show the LNP at 1.01 ie. certainties! Of the 7 National Seats 2 appear to be a possibility of changing hands – Kalgoorlie and Pilbara (but not very likely as a collapsed Lib vote should make the Nats safe despite the mining royalties uncertainty).
Rossmcg
Guest

William
My understanding always has been the branch stacking was done by forces aligned with Johnson.

Matt Quinn
Guest

Tricot – If the overall WA polls are showing a big movement to the ALP, then I think it’s quite possible for it to be a wipeout for the Libs. Since we know that swings are not even, a not unreasonable scenario would be little movement in the western and river suburb electorates, and little (on the 2PP) in parts of regional WA where they’d usually like to burn ALP candidates at the stake in preference to voting for them (plus they have the fun of Lib v Nat in some cases). And there might not be much more to gain in some of the ALP’s stronger seats like Armadale and Fremantle.

Based on that, the swing in the rest of the Perth Metro area could easily be big enough to move a swathe of seats even if the state swing wouldn’t be enough on a uniform swing to change government. In fact, if Perth swung 11%, and the regions zero, the ALP could win with an overall 8% swing – so 51-49. Indeed less, as my 11% includes the Lib heartland electorates that I don’t think will swing at all.

David Walsh – I didn’t think of including the notional Lib seats, I read it as 13 seats they currently hold. Including Collie-Preston and West Swan makes it seem more likely to get to the higher numbers without including unexpectedly out there results.

William – that makes sense as well. Either way, the Hillarys pre-selection has been a shambles (and was always going to be once Johnston didn’t go quietly), and if that gets out to the public, then they are known to smack the party that bollockses it up.

Jeremy Henderson
Guest

William – My abject apologies for casting aspersions! I was misreading the chart titles (down rather than up). You are, of course, perfectly correct!

David Walsh
Guest

I actually think Labor is the main threat in Hillarys.

Matt Quinn
Guest

In a normal election, I’d expect Hillarys to fall behind the Liberal candidate. But there seems to be a bit of discontent about Katsambaris’ pre-selection (he’s an associate of Moore MHR Ian Goodenough, and it seems that there may have been some branch stacking going on). With that, I’d think Hillarys is certainly a chance to move to the Independent column – similar to the 1996 Federal election where attempts to force unpopular candidates in Curtin and Pearce resulted in the previous Liberal MHRs winning as Independents.

Tim Macknay – It’s been a long while since we sat about with beer and talked politics (and I think everyone else disappeared to watch soccer). I think I’d given up on the Australian long prior to that election so I probably never saw those cartoons – I’ll have a look.

David Walsh
Guest

13 to 20 sounds very precise, doesn’t it? I take it they’ve written off 13 seats as lost, with another seven in doubt. (If instead the figure was “15 to 20” that would sound more like an approximation.)

So what are the 13? There are nine seats – including the two notionals – under 10%. It’s safe to assume they’re gone. That leaves four. That happens to be exactly the number the West reported last week as being last stand battlegrounds: Bicton, Kalamunda, Joondalup and Southern River. I’d say they’re gone as well.

The remaining seven? I would guess Wanneroo, Bunbury, Jandakot, Darling Range, Burns Beach, Riverton and one of Hillarys or Kingsley. Alternatively, perhaps we need to look outside of Perth to Dawesville or Murray-Wellington.

Tricot
Guest

I don’t think it is a good idea to get too carried away by translating favourable polls for Labor for some kind of wipe-out for Labor. Ten seats has always been a big hill to climb. It would be handy for Labor to have a buffer of 3-4 seats but having seen – and for a variety of reasons which may not apply in WA – Clinton losing in the US and Brexit getting up despite the prediction of many polls – some caution should be applied here too. Talk of 15 plus seats is optimistic in the extreme. What is of interest, with a strong vote for Labor in the lower house, is the change to Labor’s fortunes in the Legislative Assembly. It may well be, for the benefit of both, Labor and LNP or just L, may have more interest in keeping the likes of ON at arm’s length than hacking into one another.

Rossmcg
Guest

Matt
Where do you place Hillarys? Johnston has a strong local following and could he surprise and hold out Katsambanis, who seems to have the has been been talked up as a future leader and according to William is a Cormann/Collier/Globalheart church candidate.

Matt Quinn
Guest

Up to 20 seats? Wow.

I could find 15 possible seats, but the next four are a challenge. My initial 16 were Belmont, Forrestfield, Swan Hills, Balcatta, Morley, Perth, Joondalup, Wanneroo, Burns Beach, Southern River, Riverton, Kalamunda, Darling Range, Bicton, Mt Lawley and Bunbury.

Four more? I’d guess Jandakot as it’s been talked about and Kingsley makes sense as part of a general Joondalup City area revolt, then two more? Geraldton to the Nats perhaps? Then the last one – would have to come from Dawesville, or perhaps Scarborough or Carine (there hasn’t been an ALP member in my area since Innaloo was abolished in 2005).

If it’s leaked Liberal polling, I’d guess they believe they’re dead, and are putting out the worst case scenario so anything less seems a good result.

If ON don’t get 10% of the vote, I’d think Lib/ON preference deals will be dead nationwide after this election.

Paddy O
Guest
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