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Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Some consolation for One Nation courtesy of Essential Research, which records the party's national vote at a new high.

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The Guardian Australia reports the latest result of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has two-party steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down two on the primary vote to 35%, Labor down one to 36%, One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens steady on 9%. There is as always a bunch of other stuff in the poll, which you can read about in the report, or here when I get around to writing it up tomorrow.

There was no BludgerTrack update last week for reasons that should be apparent if you scroll through the last few posts, but here it is now. To be clear, this is what I should have run last week, and does not include this latest result, which I’ll include in my next run later in the week.

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2,433 thoughts on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

  1. C@tmomma

    Slow and steady at 53-47 will win the race for Labor. 🙂

  2. C@tmomma

    Good Morning Bludgers!

  3. C@tmomma

    Take 2.

    Good Morning Bludgers!

    First day of Door-knocking for our local Gosford By-election today! (I’m hoping it doesn’t pour with rain).

    Nevertheless, I will not complain as it will be doubly hard for our candidate, who has to get around in a wheelchair!

  4. C@tmomma

    I love the feeling of megalomania in the morning! (she says as she is the only one posting) 😉

  5. C@tmomma

    Finally, could someone inform Scott Morrison that Women are not a Quiver to be filled with Men’s arrows that result in children as soon as humanly possible!?!

    If a woman has to delay having children, then that’s her decision, for whatever reason. If she wants to have them young, then that’s her decision too. And her husband, of course.

    However, to use the Traditionalist Conservative argument that Child-bearing is the function of marriage around which all else pivots and it should be the central concern of couples AND policymakers, is wrong and a patent attempt to wind the clock back by said Conservatives.

  6. lizzie

    Hi C@T

    Didn’t want you to feel lonely. Poor BK’s been caught on the hop again.
    My power will be off today so I’m in a rush to have breakfast.

  7. BK

    And good morning to you William!

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher tells us about the invisible (to Australia) visit by the king of Saudi Arabia to Indonesia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/saudi-arabian-king-salmans-nineday-trip-to-indonesia-is-a-worry-for-australia-20170313-gux95l.html
    Amy Remeikis reports that Queensland may delay its election into 2018 in the hope that PHON will implode.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-aftermath-labor-to-delay-queensland-state-election-in-hope-one-nation-implodes-20170313-guwwki.html
    But Nick O’Malley reckons it’s not all over yet for Hanson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-far-too-soon-to-writeoff-pauline-hanson-and-the-populist-right-20170313-guwv7m.html
    Troy Bramston says that the stunning election victory of Labor leader Mark McGowan that obliterated Colin Barnett’s conservative government should resound like an alarm bell across the Nullarbor. But Malcolm Turnbull seemingly has learned little from the result. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/troy-bramston/hanson-option-still-alive-how-stupid-are-these-liberals/news-story/9137dd595fb13988b8a43eef46524c9b
    Phil Coorey writes that Nick Xenophon has said that Pauline Hanson would be mad to do any more preference deals with the Coalition because minor parties always end up the biggest loser from such arrangements. Google.
    /news/politics/nick-xenophon-warns-pauline-hanson-not-to-do-any-more-preference-deals-20170312-guwkrp
    Tony Wright has some fun at Hanson’s expense.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/please-explain-pauline-hanson-demands-that-james-ashby-tell-her-what-went-wrong-in-wa-20170313-guwo13.html
    Paula Matthewson says the last time a Liberal state government was dealt a smashing defeat at the polls, the Liberal Prime Minister at the time became a dead man walking.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/03/13/turnbull-wa-election-challenges/
    Most voters support a range of tax increases, including the “Buffett rule” and a minimum rate for multinational companies, while there is limited support for the Turnbull government’s $50bn corporate tax cut, the Guardian Essential poll has found.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/14/most-voters-support-minimum-tax-rates-for-high-earners-survey-finds
    It will be interesting to follow the legal case against Audi/VW in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/volkswagen-audi-emissions-scandal-a-driver-speaks-out-20170312-guwnmj.html
    Sean Nicholls writes that the Turnbull government has been accused of engaging in “the politics of survival” by a senior NSW government minister who has demanded it “get on with some proper reform” including to address housing affordability.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/andrew-constance-criticises-turnbull-government-over-reform-20170313-guwyfk.html

  8. BK

    Section 3 . . .

    Keep digging Scotty!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/people-are-delaying-having-children-so-they-can-buy-a-house-scott-morrison-20170312-guwnm1.html
    Malcolm Turnbull has counselled senior ministers involved in a Victorian factional war to end the feud, amid allegations that the damaging leak of travel records against Health Minister Greg Hunt could have been an internal “political hit” writes Simon Benson in The Australian. Google.
    /national-affairs/turnbulls-rebuke-for-warring-victorian-ministers/news-story/e47b6e56f51083397c44116d2f8edc33
    The NSW government is under fire over the burgeoning stamp duty inflows from housing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/business-urges-gladys-berejiklian-to-act-on-stamp-duty-growth-20170313-gux2s7.html
    Just go away Mehajer!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-demands-retraction-and-eyes-a-second-act-in-politics-20170313-guwu3q.html
    On the day that SA will outline its plan to take greater charge of energy it’s apparent that the rampant deregulation in Victoria over the years has not at ll served them well.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/energy-security-fears-trigger-action-on-power-supply-20170313-gux1e1.html
    Here’s what the AFR thinks Jay Weatherill and Tom Koutsantonis will say this morning about energy security and prices in SA. Google.
    /business/energy/electricity/gas-market-shakeup-in-sa-energy-plan-20170313-guwsj7
    And Katherine Murphy says that Turnbull is under pressure as gas supply takes centre stage in the energy crisis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/13/turnbull-gas-supply-centre-stage-australia-power-crisis
    According to another report from the Grattan Institute the failure of Australia’s electricity market has triggered a call for government intervention since deregulation has fattened profit margins of power companies but left many households worse off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/household-ripoffs-trigger-call-to-reregulate-electricity-20170312-guwmze.html
    Michael West tells us in a detailed article that it is bizarre that gas customers in Japan buy Australian gas more cheaply than Australians. Some of this gas is drilled in the Bass Strait, piped to Queensland, turned into liquid and shipped 6,700 kilometres to Japan … but the Japanese still pay less than Victorians.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/gas-the-crisis-of-guile-and-greed/
    And the ACCC has chimed in warning that gas shortages have made manufacturing almost “impossible” and LNG exporters should take action to help resolve the supply crisis.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/gas-shortages-make-manufacturing-impossible-accc-20170313-guwwac.html

  9. BK

    Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The next two months will be crunch time for European nationalists.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/crunch-time-for-european-nationalists-20170312-guwm1k.html
    And for your morning purgative here’s Amanda Vanstone’s latest effort.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bill-shorten-is-playing-us-all-for-fools-20170312-guwnt8.html

    Alan Moir shares Hanson’s WA woes with us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/x/4/n/0/image.related.articleLeadwide.620×349.guwmh9.png/1489391361664.jpg
    David Pope has Turnbull playing catch-up with Jay Weatherill.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6x0XIIU8AAPhQT.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox and International Women’s Day.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6xTwe1U0AAQlLg.jpg
    David Rowe takes us into the locker room with a desperate Malcolm Turnbull.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6xxUuMVoAAcvhK.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox at the (late) unveiling of Peter Slipper’s portrait in Parliament House.
    http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/u/k/t/g/image.gallery.socialLead.620×349.fhd6.png/1489367241958.jpg
    Matt Golding sums up the Barnett government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/w/3/m/w/image.gallery.socialLead.620×349.gl6ndp.png/1489365669200.jpg
    Mark Knight has a beauty on Turnbull and battery power.
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/latest-mark-knight-cartoons/image-gallery/3a75151fbab76180dfd2225950ca23da

  10. BK

    Section 2 . . . *^(&%*$*$%$ (to avoid dup)

    Andrew Street says it looks like Coopers Brewery has made quite a blue with its involvement with the Bible Society. There’s been a boycotting backlash from non-bigoted consumers. And CUB can tell them what that means!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/beers-and-bibles-how-coopers-created-their-own-pr-disaster-20170313-guwrww.html
    A lovely article from Kristina Keneally on parenthood and politicians.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/14/kate-ellis-didnt-quit-to-put-her-family-first-shed-always-done-that
    The Trump administration must step up and play a great role in our region, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said on Monday evening, as the rise of China and disputes over maritime boundaries present fresh challenges in the Indo-Pacific.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-calls-for-trump-administration-to-do-more-in-asia-as-china-rises-20170313-guwt94.html
    Paul McGeough says Trump is playing with fire as he cleans out the Justice department of lawyers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/shooting-down-sheriff-of-wall-street-a-sign-of-trump-white-house-under-siege-20170313-guwpgz.html
    Kellyanne Conway continued to promote President Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claim that his predecessor, Barack Obama, ordered wiretapping of his communications during the campaign by citing “microwaves that turn into cameras” as a possible source of surveillance. What a bloody dill!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/03/13/kellyanne-conway-defends-trump-wiretap-claim-by-citing-microwav/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    White House Chief Economic Adviser Gary Cohn had a rough interview on Fox News Sunday as host Chris Wallace kept pressing him on whether or not President Trump would support a health care plan that would take coverage away from millions of people. Republicans are tearing each apart over replacing Obamacare.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/12/fox-news-turns-trump-trashes-trumpcare-president-hits.html
    How crook is this? The Tax Office has been forced to admit it secretly handed sensitive employment details on its own workforce to a private firm in an attempt to voter-profile an all-staff industrial ballot. The ATO covertly supplied its contractor with the names, email addresses, locations of work and pay grades of each of its 19000 employees without their knowledge or consent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/busted-public-services-voter-profiling-exposed-20170310-guv8uy.html
    Get ready for a ding dong stoush between the feisty Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May over a hard Brexit and Scottish independence.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/scotlands-leader-nicola-sturgeon-calls-for-second-independence-referendum-before-brexit-20170313-guxavx.html
    The North Shore by-election is hotting up as this surgeon with strong ideas enters the fray as an independent
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/doctor-stephen-ruff-to-stand-as-independent-in-north-shore-byelection-20170313-guwzui.html
    Democratic legislators fight back in Texas. On Friday Jessica Farrar filed a bill titled “Man’s Right to Know Act” which would require men to wait 24 hours after an “initial health care consultation” to receive an elective vasectomy, colonoscopy or Viagra prescription and fines men for releasing “unregulated masturbatory emissions.” I think it will be pulled.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/satirical-texas-bill-turns-language-of-antiabortion-laws-on-men-fining-men-for-masturbating-20170313-guxb2d.html

  11. Greensborough Growler

    I see that post my going to bed a number of the usual suspects managed to conflate the right to quiet enjoyment of one’s leisure time playing the Pokies at your local with the current RC in to institutional child abuse with the bonus anti-Catholic/anti religion bigotry theme thrown in.
    How amusement.
    Yabba is doing a sterling job displaying all his inadequacies and inability to do anything more than regurgitate bullshit and abuse. Yabba doesn’t understand that repeating crap means you are still talking crap. Hectoring abuse is hectoring abuse.
    However, in the name of goodwill and scientific research I do believe that I’ve discovered the cause for all his angst. He thinks he’s being watched by a duck!
    https://twitter.com/thatmarkperkins/status/840894259502940162/photo/1

  12. don

    fulvio sammut @ #3234 Monday, March 13, 2017 at 11:06 pm

    Is this a psephology forum or a Psychoanalysts’ Convention?

    It is a blog, with threads, loosely based on elections and polls.

    The threads wander all over the place, that is why they are not called rods.

    Most of us are not one dimensional, we have a broad range of interests, some related to politics, some only loosely so.

    We discuss what we discuss. Get over it, you and others who think that they can determine the topic du jour.

    I find the side issues just as interesting as the strictly political ones, as do many here, which is why we come.

    Get a life.

  13. Libertarian Unionist

    Good luck, C@t. You’ll smash ’em in Gosford. North Shore will in interesting, but I don’t see Manly falling this time, or any time soon.

  14. Socrates

    I really think this poll will spell peak Hanson. The gloss, media and otherwise, is now off Pauline. Without prospect of a balance of power, she is just another independent. Callins WA a “fantastic result” will not fool anyone.

  15. Socrates

    The North Sydney bi-election will be interesting. Normally it would be impossible for Labor to win. But a moderate indeoendent would have a chance.

    The timing is also amusing. The poor and downtrodden of North Sydny have suffered now for months without a local to press their needs in Canberra, since humble Joe was called to serve for us in Washington. No doubt Malcolm was hoping the bad polls might “blow over” after christmas. But they have if anything worsened. I’d rate the bi election an 80/20 chance to the Libs, assuming a non-fundu candidate.

  16. ItzaDream

    Why we love Coopers.

    Reposting the SBS Coopers / Bible / Liberal Prat Boys spoof:

    http://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/896406083658/love-coopers

  17. Socrates

    Doh! I completely missed that North Sydney was the state seat. I see Trent Zimmerman has replaced Hockey (I must havemissed his many fine speeches).

    Anyway the timing will still be interesting, for Gladys and Malcolm.

  18. zoomster

    Soc

    I think the other message from WA is that Hanson does not have the infrastructure in place to run a broad campaign. Whether her polling is 4% or 8% is an angel on the head of a pin argument; she got the results she got.

    If her party didn’t poll well because it didn’t run candidates in all seats – which then has a flow on effect on Upper House polling – or whatever, the question should be whether the problem is likely to recur in future elections.

    There’s no reason to think that Hanson would be any better at recruiting candidates in other jurisdictions. Her candidates are people with an axe to grind (and they all have a different axe) who are after attention and at least a chance at a seat in Parliament.

    The WA result suggests that they won’t get either. Indeed, get too much attention and Pauline is likely to strike you off the list.

    So PHON can poll whatever it wants, out of an election period. If it doesn’t contest all the seats, it can’t acheive that at an election; and if it can’t achieve that at an election, then its polling numbers are pretty meaningless.

  19. Socrates

    Brainscans can now spot criminals. I wonder if they can spot sociopathic politicians and CEOs? I suspect the only difference is the level of education.
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/mar/13/brain-scans-can-spot-criminals-scientists-say

  20. ItzaDream

    @Socrates re North Sydney

    Dr Mr Ruff is quite a charismatic bloke, esp for an orthopaedic surgeon, with a long history of concern for local issues, and a campaign apparatus well in place, no blow-in he.

    Reposting this re Gladys getting the scares and coughing up the princely sum of $30K for a trust to manage Wendy Whiteley’s magic garden. Mrs Whiteley had agreed to go dollar-for-dollar and to the Premier’s paltry gesture, all gesture little substance, she said “Hmmm, that’s lovely, thank you very much. But $3 million would have been better”.

    No flies on Wendy.

  21. ratsak

    I just picture Bilbo as Dr Evil to BK’s Scott. https://youtu.be/jMIDpJ8H7H0

  22. guytaur

    mumbletwits: Turnbull is cactus, ALP probably win next federal election; these things we knew already. WA result tells us bugger all about fed politics

    mumbletwits: 2pp swing at most recent election against conservative state/territory govt: NT (14), Qld (14), WA (11?), NSW (10), Vic(3-4).
    (Missed any?)

  23. Socrates

    Zoom
    I agree re Hanson’s lack of organisational infrastructure. Also I think that, despite all the media boosting, there is no evidence that more than 10-12% of Australians will ever vote for Hanson or anyone like her. We saw the same with Pup. Rapid rise, media attention, momentum, Senate spots, an odd sest or two in the sticks, ready to become a major force. Then nothing in both cases. I bet the same people voted for both. But most people rejected both, and those who allied with them.

  24. Socrates

    Itzadream
    Thanks, nice to see Gladys tackling the hard issues on the mean streets of North Sydney.

    If Ruff is a good candidate he might stand a chance. North Sydney and Abbott’s seat of Warringah both remind me of here in the eastern suburbs of Adelaide. Safe seats that neither side of politics has any intention of lifting a finger for. A few token gestures and that is it. North Sydney and Warringah actually have diabolical traffic access problems, but I doubt the Liberals have any intention of fixing them.

  25. Socrates

    Have a good day all. The spon attempts on WA results should be amusing.

  26. Greensborough Growler

    z and Socrtes,

    THe One Nation vote according to polls can be up to 12-14%. However, as z says, if you don’t run candidates in every seat, the vote at an actual election is going to be less. I reckon there is also a degree of alleged ON voters who seem to be parking their vote with Hanson as an in between elec tion protest at the policy and representation they are receiving from the main Parties. The other interesting thing is the preference flows of actual ON voters seem to brek fairly evenly. This means their vote is a real wildcard in any election.

  27. ItzaDream

    Socrates

    What’s more, Rudd has the legendary independent Ted Mack fanning his sails.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Mack_(politician)

  28. ItzaDream

    BAD typo

    Rudd = Ruff

  29. jeffemu

    HOWZAATTTT !!!!
    BK one -v- William Bowe one.
    DUECE…

  30. briefly

    C@Tmomma
    Tuesday, March 14, 2017 at 7:28 am
    Take 2.

    Good Morning Bludgers!

    First day of Door-knocking for our local Gosford By-election today! (I’m hoping it doesn’t pour with rain).

    Nevertheless, I will not complain as it will be doubly hard for our candidate, who has to get around in a wheelchair!

    Happy hunting, C@t!!!

  31. zoomster

    GG

    I agree that ON polls can indicate a parked vote for the Right, just as high Green polling can indicate a parked vote for the ALP.

    …which is why neither do as well at elections as (some) of their polling suggests they should.

    The Greens are generally able to field candidates across all electorates, however.

  32. confessions

    Morning all

    Thanks BK for today’s wrap up.

    I’m trying not to engage but am seeing reports that Kellyanne Conway has suggested Obama was syping on people via their microwaves and Comical Ali doubles down yet again on another absurdity in relation to Trump.

    Politics must be the only industry where truly incompetent and idiotic fools can make it to the top of their profession.

  33. citizen

    [Guytaur
    Tuesday, March 14, 2017 at 8:23 am
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-14/adani-carmichael-coalmine-to-shift-millions-to-cayman-islands/8350704?pfmredir=sm%5D

    It has been clear for a while that this company has some very dodgy financial arrangements. Perhaps Malcolm can advise the owners on the best place to deposit their money in the Caymans.

  34. Yabba88

    GG I suspect that the problem that many sad pokie addicts have is similar to the problem that you had with eating. Unfortunately there is no operation available for them.

    I see the Pope’s gaggle of cardinals, Pell included, has doubled down on refusing to provide the information it has on priests’ behaviour to civil authorities, including the RC. What is your opinion on that refusal?

  35. Ides of March

    As I posted last night. Stephen Ruff is not the only independent that put their hands up for North Shore. Mosman councillor Carolyn Corrigan also put her hand up. However Ruff has a larger profile, including in the non-mosman parts of the seat. No independents have formally announced for Manly yet but the Libs preselected the candidate last night. Im hoping for David Barr to consider running again (previously held Manly as an independent until 2007)

  36. Greensborough Growler

    Yabba,

    Do you have any other songs on that jukebox?

  37. shellbell

    Mostly, NSW does well with its judicial appointments in contrast to what has happened federally under Brandis
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/civil-war-to-sydney-magistrate-prosecutor-imad-abdulkarims-rise-to-the-bench-20170313-guwprh.html

  38. guytaur

    andrew_lund: Premier and Energy Minister at Tesla. Govt to invest $20mil to support large-scale energy storage @9NewsMelb pic.twitter.com/MLqALd4gUv

  39. briefly

    Socrates
    Tuesday, March 14, 2017 at 7:57 am
    I really think this poll will spell peak Hanson.

    ON support is drawn from angry Lib voters. There are plenty of them and there are few reasons to think they will become less angry as time passes. ON is a split in Lib-affiliating expression. This split has been long time in the making and has been deepened by senior Libs – by Howard, Abbott, Dutton and, lately, Turnbull too. ON made the mistake in WA of associating themselves with a very unpopular Lib Government. They are unlikely to do that again, which means they will be accentuating the split. As long as they do this, they will continue to attract and amplify disaffected Lib opinion.

  40. ItzaDream

    North Sydney and Warringah actually have diabolical traffic access problems, but I doubt the Liberals have any intention of fixing them.

    Beauty has a price to pay. Sydney’s traffic nightmare is the product of its topography. Unlike a river where a bridge can be built every few hundred metres, crossing the harbour isn’t easy – the close point is North Sydney to Millers Point (CBD) and that’s where the Bridge and the SHT (tunnel) are for obvious reasons. So to get across everything has to funnel into this choke point.

    No amount of fiddling with the (Liberal voting) funnels will make two hoots of difference. What’s needed is another crossing, a mega crossing, from (say) Bondi Junction to (say) Spit junction. Or failing that, Wunulla Road to ….

    The $17 Billion being spent on WestConnex might just have been enough.

  41. Yabba88

    GG I, and all of the rest of us, will take it that your non answer denotes support for holey muther church, and its continuing disgusting behaviour. Deflection does not work.

  42. ItzaDream

    @ Ides 8:57 am

    And your post last night, if I remember correctly, made the good call for Carolyn Corrigan to reconsider her candidature.

  43. BK

    ratsak @ #24 Tuesday, March 14, 2017 at 8:17 am

    I just picture Bilbo as Dr Evil to BK’s Scott. https://youtu.be/jMIDpJ8H7H0

    I harbour no animosity.

  44. Ides of March

    ItzaDream:

    That is correct. I mean no disrespect to Mrs Corrigan, but I would prefer a clearer path for Stephen Ruff. Corrigan as a Mosman councillor appears to be running on the anti merger argument. Ruff is running on saving Royal North Shore Hospital, getting rid of middle managers on the disasturous local health boards and doing something on transport (maybe a little bit too far out there though).

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