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ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

A new poll conducted in WA records very substantial federal wash-up from state Labor's landslide last weekend.

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The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.

UPDATE: After exclusion of 3.2% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 38.7%, Nationals 5.1%, Labor 35.7%, Greens 11.6% and One Nation 5.3%. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 54.5-45.5 as preferred prime minister; Turnbull rated very good or good by 29.3%, average by 37.2% and poor or very poor by 33.5%; Shorten respectively coming in at 27.7%, 36.7% and 35.6%; and 75.5% rating it very important, 17.0% somewhat important, 5.6% “indifferent” and 1.9% not at all important that Western Australia get a bigger share of GST revenue. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 1554.

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phoenixRED
Guest

All eyes on FBI Director James Comey as Russia and wiretap claims swirl

FBI director James Comey will be in the hot seat Monday facing lawmakers who accuse him of stonewalling Congress, as they demand answers about Donald Trump’s potential Russia ties and the president’s extraordinary accusation of wiretapping by his predecessor.

http://www.rawstory.com/2017/03/all-eyes-on-fbi-director-james-comey-as-russia-and-wiretap-claims-swirl/

cud chewer
Guest

There’s other forms of polyethylene coating that I’ve not seen here and there’s also copolymer “paints”.

cud chewer
Guest

TallebudgeraLurker
Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 9:58 am
Cud Chewer @ 400,
Is sprayed PE coating available in Australia?
I haven’t encountered it to date.

Its coming slowly..

Google “Fusion Bonded Medium Density Polyethylene site:au”

Socrates
Guest

Regarding the Newspoll, there was a line in Annabelle Crabbe’s Malcolm from Snowy piece that seemed most apt:
“The Man From Snowy River then clapped on his Driza-Bone
His hat and his elastic sided boots.
He summoned his advisers via WhatsApp, text and phone.
“We need a press announcement, friends! When suits?”

His acolytes came running; at his rustic foot they kneeled.
They ventured their advice to him when pressed.
“Newspoll’s Tuesday, so that means the pollster’s in the field
On Thursday: Make it Thursday. Thursday’s best.”

Twitter: annabelcrabb”

TallebudgeraLurker
Guest
Frednk @ 789, As I understand it, the Gold Coast Desalination Water Treatment Plant is kept idling (i.e. it is not in mothballs) and produces water from one of its modules in turn every fortnight thereabouts so that it can on demand and reliably ramp up to full capacity of 125 ML per day within a very short time period – less than 48 hours possibly. I am not sure what was happening at Wonthaggi with mothballing or idling the Victorian Desalination Water Treatment Plant, BUT lucky that the Napthene Government didn’t have the RO membranes removed and throw out… Read more »
cupidstunt
Guest

Lyon out last ball of day Aus 2-23

Socrates
Guest
TL Yes that is certainly the analysis needed, for both demand and supply. You would think that the Federal ministry, AEMO, and all the players are already doing it. Surely Turnbull and Frydenberg have received such analysis? So why can’t the rest of us see it? BTW you were correct about Splityard Creek being able to do pumped hydro – I had not known that. However it is not clear to me how the capacity could be increased. We need to see a lot more of these details to know if Snow Job is a real solution or not.
Peter Piper
Guest

Simon,

Yep.

Simon Katich
Guest

Nathan Lyon as nightwatchman?

Nathan Lyons test bowling average, strike rate and economy rate is almost identical to the chap he replaced – Nathan Hauritz. Although Haurits batting avaerage is about twice that of Lyon.

Is Lyon out yet?

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Rossmore – its easy to get a bounce when the earlier low figure was probably MOE anyway.

Rossmore
Guest

A Snowy River bounce …. trouble is you can only do a Snowy once in each term …

Rossmore
Guest

A Snowy River bounce …. trouble is you can only do a Snowy once in each term …

Henry
Guest

And Warner fails yet again.
Lion at home, lamb abroad.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Its been 53-47 in Essential to Labor for three weeks. I doubt the earlier 55-45 in Newspoll was based on anything other than sampling error. I recall Possum mocked it on twitter when it came out, he thought it was noise.

TallebudgeraLurker
Guest
Socrates @ 779, What neither Uhlmann nor any other mainstream commentator reports for the east coast (SA, Vic, Tas, NSW, ACT and Qld) is: 1. Generating capacity in MW by type; 2. Actual availability of this generating capacity, say converting the GWh or MWh per annum to MW (dividing by 365 x 24) to average out coal fired generator availability, or wind turbine availability, or solar panel output availability; 3. Actual minimum daily demand in MW; 4. Peak daily demand in MW; and 5. Time of day for the peak demand, then leaving out all the gamesmanship of the national… Read more »
mari
Guest
grimace
Guest

c@tmomma @ #790 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 9:48 pm

Grimace,
Look above you!

Thanks. If there is an auto update function for this blog it isn’t working on my PC. I did check #ghostwhovotes before I hit submit.

John Reidy
Guest

Possibly C@t, people still want Turnbull to succeed, so if he does anything positive he gets a bounce, a bit like he CPG really.

C@tmomma
Guest

Galaxy were also in the field today. I don’t know who for because they wanted to not only ask about Voting Intention but Beverage consumption habits!

John Reidy
Guest

I assume 3 points is well outside the MOE.

C@tmomma
Guest

Hmm, the Snowy 2.0 must have been a popular announcement.

boomy1
Guest

I feel a nightmare of resentment and criticism of the stupid of voters coming on.

C@tmomma
Guest

Grimace,
Look above you!

frednk
Guest

If James is publishing the results my guess is 52-48

John Reidy
Guest

Thsnks James.

grimace
Guest

Anyone like to make a guess on Newspoll? My money is on 54-46.

I’d dearly love to see 55-45 or even 56-44, unfortunately I feel it is unlikely.

frednk
Guest

Given the trouble getting the desalination plant running again after the Liberals all out attempt to destroy it by ignoring it, I am not surprised that in the future they intend to run it yearly.

James J
Guest

Newspoll
52-48 2pp to Labor
Primaries: Coalition 37, Labor 35, Greens 9, One Nation 10, Others 9
Turnbull: Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 57
Shorten Satisfied 29, Dissatisfied 57
Better PM: Turnbull 43, Shorten 29
1819 sample. March 16-19

Socrates
Guest

Rossmcg
“reminds me of the 1990s WA Tory minister Graham Kierath, a capital punishment fan, who once offered the view that being executed might be better than spending decades in gaol for a crime you didn’t commit.”
It would be interesting to test Keirath’s commitment to that doctrine by introducing the death penalty for official corruption by a Minister. I’m sure he would still support the policy 🙂

confessions
Guest

Why ?

Because it is illegal, uncivilised and morally reprehensible. And totally goes against the US being signatory to a range of UN Conventions on the subject.

The US these days are totally cool with “enhanced interrogation techniques” .

That doesn’t mean that the highest court in the country should have judges appointed to it who are willing to side with the govt embarking on illegal, uncivilised and morally reprehensible acts with prisoners under its responsibility.

bemused
Guest

slav g @ #780 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 9:09 pm

Antonbruckner11
Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 7:42 pm
Gorkay – Thanks. Does that mean that pissed of Lib voters who went Green didn’t give their second prefs back to the Libs??

I wouldn’t think so, Greens increased their vote by 0.5% so it looks like people who gave higher preference to Lib last time decided to give it to Labor this time.

In the absence of hard data, any answers are just speculation.

Rossmcg
Guest

If done humanely, killing may arguably be the ethically superior option…

reminds me of the 1990s WA Tory minister Graham Kierath, a capital punishment fan, who once offered the view that being executed might be better than spending decades in gaol for a crime you didn’t commit.

I think at the time members of the Birmingham Six and Guildford Four begged to differ.

Slav G
Guest

Antonbruckner11
Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 7:42 pm
Gorkay – Thanks. Does that mean that pissed of Lib voters who went Green didn’t give their second prefs back to the Libs??

I wouldn’t think so, Greens increased their vote by 0.5% so it looks like people who gave higher preference to Lib last time decided to give it to Labor this time.

Socrates
Guest
Apologies if others have already discussed this one. On the power supply mess, this article by Chris Uhlmann points out the risks of inadequate supply associated with the closur of Hazelwood, now only weeks away. Supply risks could cost jobs. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-19/manufacturers-will-quit-australia-if-reliable-energy-in-doubt/8366528 The article points out that SA renewable energy investment has been driven by federal policy, and the Weatherall plan for batteries and a gas standy plant. Yet it does not talk about the two elephants in the room. How will the Snow Job plan help in the short term, when it will take four to seven years to deliver?… Read more »
antonbruckner11
Guest

Sohar. Agree, and some of his cabinet colleagues are leaking to hasten Turnbull’s political death and Turnbull knows that (hence the mad tweets). Maybe this all points to a bad newspoll number coming up. Shades of Tone’s recent intervention?

Boerwar
Guest
dave ‘Even after all this time many in Japan refuse to accept they did much wrong – as well know. ‘ Nippon Kaigi is an extremist right wing mob with around 100,000 members. It runs at least one large school where the children patriotically sing songs from the thirties. It adores the Emperor and calls upon China and Korea to ‘repent’ for misrepresenting Japan’s role in the war. It is a key player in ensuring that Japan’s history texts white wash Japan’s role in WW2. They expect Japanese ministers to attend Yasukuni Shrine there to worship, inter alia, an assortment… Read more »
John Reidy
Guest

I imagine this news is too late to influence NewsPoll, for maximium effect it should have come out Thursday

don
Guest

citizen @ #768 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 8:11 pm

Next time should I try to pay for groceries at Coles with something other than cash? A bunch of flowers from the garden perhaps?

Coles manager asks staff to work for pizza on a Sunday — weeks after penalty rates were cut
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/coles-manager-asks-staff-to-work-for-pizza-on-a-sunday-weeks-after-penalty-rates-were-cut/news-story/fe2a0f73af792e49e20bb5462c045606

I don’t buy pizzas, but I think they can be bought for around $6.00 per person.

Call it $12.

For several hours work? Come now.

Simon Katich
Guest

I was going to say the Sheffield Shield game between WA and NSW is going down to the wire. But when a team still needs 35 runs and Doug Bollinger is batting the wire still seems a long way away.

Sohar
Guest

News publishing stories about Truffles cutting pensions during Newspoll period indicates that Rupert might be intent on hastening Malcolm’s political death.

poroti
Guest

Confessions

Why ? The US these days are totally cool with “enhanced interrogation techniques” .

confessions
Guest

The New York Times
21 mins ·
In 2005, Supreme Court of the United States nominee Neil Gorsuch stood at the center of a debate about Guantánamo detainees. He sided with President George W. Bush.

So he’s pro-torture? That alone should disqualify him from SCOTUS nomination.

frednk
Guest
confessions
Guest

Liberal factions are gearing up for war in the safe New South Wales seat of Bennelong, with moves already underway to anoint sitting member John Alexander’s successor.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/goodbye-ja-goodbye?bffbozpol&utm_term=.ja5L0Dd7Ve#.ah4V8l5JDN

Oncer Peter Hendy is reported to be agitating to be the Liberal candidate if JA retires.

citizen
Guest

Next time should I try to pay for groceries at Coles with something other than cash? A bunch of flowers from the garden perhaps?

Coles manager asks staff to work for pizza on a Sunday — weeks after penalty rates were cut

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/coles-manager-asks-staff-to-work-for-pizza-on-a-sunday-weeks-after-penalty-rates-were-cut/news-story/fe2a0f73af792e49e20bb5462c045606

C@tmomma
Guest

I Tweeted Malcolm Turnbull’s words about Jay Wetherill back at him today and it went off like a rocket on Twitter! 😀

zoomster
Guest

A R

In the kind of scenario we’re discussing, a quick death was nearly always an available option, and there were certainly examples of individuals who made that choice.

However, the majority – who were far more aware of the implications of a life of slavery than we are – chose to live.

boomy1
Guest

If done humanely, killing may arguably be the ethically superior option as enslaving them might in many cases essentially amount to nothing more than torturing and then killing them.

“If done humanely” Always gives me pause for thought.

poroti
Guest

Death to Blairism ! Unindicted war criminal Tony Blah is scum

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