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NSW By-Elections

Apr 8, 2017

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Gosford results

# % Swing 2PP Proj. Swing
Abigail Boyd (GRN) 3238 7.5% -1.6%
Andrew Church (CDP) 1313 3.1% 0.7%
Skyla Wagstaff (AJP) 1683 3.9%
Liesl Tesch (ALP) 21500 50.1% 11.4% 63.5% 62.4% 12.2%
Larry Freeman (SFP) 2227 5.2%
Jilly Pilon (LIB) 12951 30.2% -11.7% 36.5% 37.6% -12.2%
Booths counted (of 26): 26

11pm. Numbers from Gosford above are final for tonight, with 12,558 pre-polls behaving exactly as the 28,819 polling booth votes, confirming that a fairly tight primary vote battle in 2015 has turned into a 50-30 blowout in favour of Labor. 7826 pre-polls and 2,456 have given struggling Liberal Felicity Wilson a fillip, from 40.3% to 41.9%, and Antony Green is “hearing reports of 40% Green and Mutton exhaustion rates which suggests Corrigan can’t close 41% to 26% Liberal lead”. Conversely, pre-polls and iVotes have made little difference in Manly, where the Liberal’s lead over the leading independent is that little bit greater (43.3% to 22.3%).

8.48pm. Still two booths outstanding on the primary vote in Gosford, along with six on two-party preferred, and the projected Labor swing continues to nudge upwards. A few booths are outstanding in North Shore and Manly, but the picture there is clear enough – what remains to be established is whether the Liberals can nail down North Shore on pre-polls, although we won’t really be sure without a preference count. They are probably far enough ahead in Manly.

7.54pm. Three more primary vote results in Gosford, with little change to the projection.

7.51pm. New South Wales does a lot of non-booth counting on the night, so pre-polls in particular stand to add a bit of clarity in two hours or so.

7.48pm. The larger and more urban booths in Gosford have tended to improve Labor’s result — there are now 19 booths in on primary and 15 on two-party, and the swing is now well into double figures.

7.44pm. In Gosford, Booker Bay pre-school added on primary, and lots of new results in on two-party results bringing the total there up to 14 booths. The swing is now back to double figures.

7.41pm. In North Shore, Wilson (LIB) now down to 40.1%, Corrigan (IND) steady at 25.5%. That’s a shaky primary vote for the Liberals, but with postals likely to favour them, it should probably be enough.

7.39pm. Woy Woy South Public School primary vote added for Gosford.

7.38pm. And now the Glenvale School booth primary vote result brings it back to single figures.

7.37pm. Another primary vote result (Somersby) and one on two-party (Umina campus, where preferences flowed particularly strongly to Labor) pushes the projected swing in Gosford back into double figures.

7.33pm. Eleven booths in out of 19 in Manly, where Liberal candidate James Griffin is steady at 43.8%, and independent Kathryn Ridge is firming in second place with 23.4%. Presumably Griffin should be safe.

7.30pm. In North Shore, Felicity Wilson slips to 40.4% with 10 booths in on the primary vote, with independent Carolyn Corrigan up to 25.5%. A lot depends on how much of the 17.0% Greens vote is exhausting.

7.24pm. Liberal candidates are settling in at around 42% to 43% in Manly and North Shore, with the main challengers respectively at around 22% and 25%. Liberal-versus-Greens two-party counts are being conducted, which are unlikely to be much use, as they look to be coming in third.

7.23pm. Umina campus brings it to ten booths out of 26 in on the primary vote, with little change to the projection.

7.22pm. The large Peats Ridge booth in Gosford is a good one for Labor, pushing the swing back up towards the 10% mark. Peats Ridge now added on two-party.

7.20pm. A third booth in from Manly has Liberal candidate James Griffin up to 43.2%, with both Kathryn Ridge and the Greens a peek above 20%. Unless the trend changes, that should be enough for Griffin.

7.19pm. In Gosford, Mangrove Mountain Hall added on primary, Niagara Park Primary added on two-party, doing little to change the picture.

7.16pm. Five booths in now from North Shore: Felicity Wilson holding steady at 41.3%, Carolyn Corrigan dropping to 24.7%.

7.14pm. Some historical perspective: the Liberals got 41.0% of the primary vote and lost by 1.3% in 2003; then Mike Baird won by 3.4% with 45.1% in 2007. The independent incumbent, David Barr, got 33.4% and 31.2% respectively.

7.12pm. Four booths in now from North Shore, and Liberal candidate Felicity Wilson is back up 41.4%, with Carolyn Corrigan holding steady at 26.9%.

7.09pm. A second booth in North Shore, Forsyth Park, brings the Liberal candidate down to 38.8%, but Carolyn Corrigan is down too, to 26.0%. This was a better booth for independent Ian Mutton and the Greens, but it’s still clear that Corrigan is the main threat to Felicity Wilson.

7.07pm. A second booth in Manly brings the Liberal back to 42.4%, with independent Kathryn Ridge on 22.1% and the Greens on 19.9%. The Liberal primary vote might be low enough to be dangerous under compulsory preferential, but it’s probably enough under optional where there is such a big gap between the two front-runners.

7.05pm. The first booth in North Shore, Drill Hall, has Liberal candidate Felicity Wilson on 40.8%, potentially low enough to be dangerous. Far ahead of the independents is Carolyn Corrigan on 34.0%, who will be well in the game if this keeps up.

7.03pm. Four booths in on two-party in Gosford now, including the fast-working Point Clare booth. Preference flows to Labor seem to be a little bit weaker than in 2015, so now that I’m using the current results, the projected swing is now in single figures.

6.57pm. Seven booths now in on the primary vote, and little change on the projection.

6.53pm. We’ve not got two more central booths in Gosford on the primary vote, including the very large one at Point Clare Public, and it’s a pretty emphatic win there for Labor of 797-579 over the Liberals on the primary vote, compared with an 897-693 win to the Liberals at the election. So the projected swing to Labor is now into double digits.

6.49pm. The Kulnura Hall booth is in on 2PP, but it only tells us about the destination of 41 minor party votes in preferences. My projection above will continue to use the last election preferences until we’ve got more than 200 such votes to work with, and then it will switch to projecting from preference flows from the count thus far.

6.45pm. A fourth small booth in Gosford, Mooney Mooney Public, suggests Patonga is the outlier, and that Labor is picking up a solid but not overwhelming swing. But certainly they’re looking good to retain the seat.

6.44pm. The first result from Manly, Manly Hospital, has Liberal candidate James Griffin on 45.9%, which would likely be enough to see off any challengers, although the 34.8% vote for Kathryn Ridge would be a worry for him.

6.42pm. A third small booth from the Gosford hinterland, Mt White Rural Fire Service, is more like Kulnura than Patonga, with only a slight swing to Labor.

6.40pm. The second small booth from Gosford, Patonga Hall, is a much better result for Labor — they’ve beaten the Liberals 70-55 on the primary vote, having lost there 81-41 in 2015.

6.30pm. We’ve got Kulnura Hall in from Gosford — only 131 votes, but the result is little changed on 2015, suggesting another close result. The above table shows raw primary vote and percentage numbers, then swings and projections based on booth matching. At this stage, the 2PP assumes the same distribution as the 2015 election.

6pm. Polls have closed for today’s three New South Wales state by-elections in Gosford, Manly and North Shore, so now commences live commentary. We should get some very small booths in from Gosford first, followed by a lull, followed by large booths coming in from 7pm onwards.

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49 comments

49 thoughts on “New South Wales by-elections live

  1. Oakeshott Country

    I am expecting a big swing in Gosford and I am surprised by the first result

  2. Oakeshott Country

    More booths are in for Gosford and there is a BIG SWING in Point Clare

  3. Oakeshott Country

    If anyone from North Shore comes by:
    Why did Stephen Ruff not nominate
    To answer my own question I expect that the reaction to his sexist, elitist comments when he announced his candidature was enough for someone to tap him on the shoulder.
    I don’t think a RWNJ Orthopaedic surgeon would have much support even in North Sydney

  4. Ides of March

    Stephen Ruff and Genia McCaffery (North Syd Mayor) both pulled out to allow Carolyn Corrigan a better run. Ruff endorsed Corrigan as did McCafferey (as did Ted Mack).

    Ruff pulled 10% at the last state election and made the TCP for North Sydney at the federal byelection.

  5. Raaraa

    Antony Green‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC 1m1 minute ago

    #northshore 0.7% counted, First pref pcts – LIB 40.8, IND 34.0, GRN 12.7, OTH 12.5 – results at http://ab.co/2o9bp3L

  6. Raaraa

    Seems like Green has called for Gosford, but no surprises there.

  7. antonbruckner11

    Maybe fewer votes will exhaust in a by-election in which one major party isn’t running?

  8. Raaraa

    A 27.2 point swing against the Libs in the Mosman Drill Hall booth at North Shore

  9. Oakeshott Country

    According to AEC, Stephen Ruff got 13% at last year’s federal election, the other medical lunatic, ACE, got 14% and the Labor candidate 16%. After distribution it was Lib 64 Lab 36

  10. Damo

    Is the NSW electoral commission site down

  11. antonbruckner11

    OC – Are all orthopaedic surgeons RWNJs?

  12. Elaugaufein

    @Anton
    I’d expects a higher exhaust rate overall I think. Not only is it less likely for a given contender to be in the final round but there’s​ no “default” backstop on the against the Liberals side. Unless you mean a lower rate of single preference votes for the smaller parties which I could see happening.

  13. Ides of March

    Unfortunately due to Optional Preferences, I think the Libs will be safe in North Shore and Manly. Close, but safe. Between the Greens and the leading independents they’ve done enough to get the swing, but I dont think the preferences will carry.

  14. Raaraa

    Seems to be an observation in North Shore:

    [Appears to be a massive 20%+ swing in the Mosman area. Swing is significantly less around North-Sydney/Neutral Bay]

  15. Oakeshott Country

    No, there is a guy at Liverpool Hospital who believes in Medicare but otherwise their political philosophy is pure Shepardism

  16. antonbruckner11

    Elau – Yes, I was thinking fewer single pref votes for the smaller parties because one of the major parties isn’t running.

  17. antonbruckner11

    OC. Hah, thanks.

  18. Elaugaufein

    Looks like the Liberals should be making offerings of thanks to the gods of OPV for this being 2:1 instead of 0:3

  19. shellbell

    My Mosman in-laws voted independent breaking a combined 100+ years of voting liberal.
    My father-in-law was not going to vote for someone who swore a false state dec.

  20. Raaraa

    GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes

    #Gosford By-election 2 Party Preferred (22.2% counted): ALP 63.9 (+13.7) LIB 36.1 (-13.7) #nswpol #auspol

  21. confessions

    [#Gosford By-election 2 Party Preferred (22.2% counted): ALP 63.9 (+13.7) LIB 36.1 (-13.7) #nswpol #auspol]

    Thanks Raara

  22. Ides of March

    Any word on time we can expect results from Ivote and Pre-polls? Antony Green says they will be counted tonight, and that there is 13,000 in Gosford, 8000 in North Shore and 6000 in Manly.

  23. Rebecca

    I seem to be having major problems accessing Poll Bludger at busy times – the front page showed 20+ comments, but attempts to load it showed it with no updates or comments just as William had posted it, and attempts to log in bring up a 404. Only was able to access the thread logging in through the main site – what’s the deal with this?

  24. William Bowe

    In my experience, the login facility is the “Sign In” thing at the top right of the page — the one down near “Leave a comment” gets you the 404 error. Also in my experience, things load find when you’re logged on — although others might tell you different.

  25. Rebecca

    I think it’s not-logged in that’s the problem? This thread wasn’t viewable until I did: just the initial 6pm pots and no comments.

  26. Ides of March

    Rebecca:

    If i’m not logged in, the site appears to be running three hours behind.

  27. confessions

    Interestingly, Musrum’s add ons work on the main thread, but not here.

  28. Matt

    Elag: While the possibility of a 0/3 result would be real under CPV (rather than NSW’s current OPV), I still think it would be remote. I’d guess around 20-30% preference leakage from the Indies to the Liberal candidates (rather than to each other), which would get the Liberals over the line on 52-55% of the TCP vote.

    Why would I make a 20-30% guess for pref leakage? Because even the Greens->Labor prefs have 15-20% leakage from the Greens to the Coalition, and indie candidates don’t have nearly the same level of enduring partisan identity that the established parties do. I could see North Shore coming in low at perhaps 15% leakage, which would see Felicity Wilson struggling to clear 50% TCP – but that would be due to Corrigan’s history at the local level as a councillor meaning she already has a support base and a non-generic profile. Basically, most of the Indie and Greens voters will have heard of her specifically, and many will already like her (and therefore pref her ahead of Wilson).

    Whatever way you spin it, though – swings of 10%+ mean trouble down the road for Berejiklian. The TPP vote for 2015 was 54-46; even a 5% swing (half of the current byelections) would make it very, very hard for Berejiklian to keep a majority in the NSW Assembly.

  29. Dan Gulberry

    So far at least it seems that more people want to kill themselves than vote for Fred Nile’s wife.

    Vol Euthanasia Party 578
    Christian Dems 512

  30. Elaugaufein

    @Matt
    I’d expect a relatively small leakage under CPV (though I agree with you that it’d be above the usual Greens Labor rate) in this case because the absence of a Labor candidate means a significant part of the non-Liberal vote is proxy (Labor / Not-Liberal) and I’d expect it to leak Liberal at about the same 15-20% rate that Labor / Greens votes generally do , the elevated leak rate would come from the traditional Liberals who voted Independent to cause a major 2PP swing in blue ribbon seats. It’s probably kind of pointless speculation though, I doubt Labor would have sat out if it was CPV, unless they had egg on their face for some reason, since the swing shows it would have been winnable under those conditions so the entire contest would be radically different.

  31. Elaugaufein

    @Dan Gulberry
    You made a logic error. Those groups aren’t exclusive. Voting for Fred Niles’ wife is an excellent way to get social policy that will slowly kill them for a variety of groups.

  32. Raaraa

    @Dan Gulberry

    Surely you jest. Just because someone wants to vote for a party that pushes for voluntary euthanasia doesn’t mean they want to kill themselves.

  33. a r

    Raaraa @ #33 Saturday, April 8th, 2017 – 9:54 pm

    @Dan Gulberry

    Surely you jest.

    Yes. I’m almost positive that’s exactly what he does.

  34. Dan Gulberry

    Raaraa, A R

    Indeed I was jesting. I neglected to add a smiley to the end of my post.

  35. Raaraa

    Ah OK, I assumed it was that but I get a bit edgy around that topic unfortunately.

  36. sprocket_

    Hmmmm. Looking at the swings

    Gosford Libs -12.7%
    Manly Libs -24.7%
    North Shore Libs -16.6%

    Probably what expected, and GB needs to pull something out to arrest this trend

  37. sprocket_

    These swings being primaries

  38. Elaugaufein

    Sprocket_
    How big is PHON / SFF in NSW ? Because trying to win back votes in these areas and pissing off the rural / suburban potential PHON / SFF voters likely have a pretty strong correlation.

  39. sprocket_

    PHoN did not stand in these 3 by elections
    SFF stood only in Gosford and got 5.4% primary
    The RWNJ protest vote of 5-10%, maybe up to 15% in a good year will oscellate around depending on variable factors, mostly country areas as this extra 5% are largely the banjo playing wing of the Nationals.

  40. Elaugaufein

    Yeah, I know they didn’t. These are mostly metro seats where PHON would poll embarrassingly badly. I meant in NSW in general since favoring metro seats tends to tick off the more rural / suburban ones where PHON does run. The LNP are currently having a crisis in Queensland over whether sucking up to PHON is worth a significant chance of losing Metro seats so I was wondering if the tradeoff was as spikey in NSW.

  41. ShowsOn

    Return to my own vomit like a dog.

  42. confessions

    [Manly Libs -24.7%]

    And it was reported that Abbott hadn’t played a part in the by-election! Imagine what damage there’d have been had he put his stamp on things.

  43. Sohar

    These by-elections in NSW seem to have made a nonsense of Newspoll’s 51-49 to Libs in that state. Opinions polls are fast losing relevance, along with the media in this country.

  44. antonbruckner11

    Sohar – These polls are also a little out of date. My impression is that Gladys looks more of the dill as every day passes. Labor 3 to 1 to win the next election. Pretty good odds, methinks.

  45. dave

    [ My impression is that Gladys looks more of the dill as every day passes. ]
    ……….
    Yep.

    I also suspect she will not get the same electoral pixie dust treatment as bambi baird did for most of the time.

    Unfair maybe but combined with an 8 year old government by the next election and continually dancing to the tune of the big end of town with most stuff stitched up and deals sealed before the public gets a say there is a good chance of being chucked out.

  46. Raaraa

    About opinion polling… there’s a few more factors at play. These are by-elections where Labor did not run candidates in two, plus TPP are often skewed where OPV is in play.

  47. Peter of Marino

    Test 😝

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