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Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

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Read this interesting synopsis about the Middle East . Can’t find name of author but rings true.
“Here’s a brief explanation of what’s going down in Syria.
Back in 2000, Saudi Arabia (Quatar) proposed 2 oil pipelines. The purpose was to bring Natural Gas from the middle East to western Europe. They were labeled plan A and plan B.
Plan A ran through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Syria.
Plan B bypassed Syria, instead going through Iraq.
Plan A is the easiest and most direct route, with the most profits for US and European allies.
Assad, the leader of Syria and a strong ally of Russia, blocked the plan A pipeline. This lead the US and NATO forces to look at plan B, which prompted the invasion of Iraq to make them complicit in the construction.
Russia does not want this pipe built at all, as they export 70% of their natural gas product to Europe, and this pipeline would hurt their economy. They enlist Iran to help block plan B, and Syria to block plan A.
Russia begins sending aid to Assad, to help him keep power during the civil war, so they can continue to block the pipeline. The US and NATO forces send aid to the rebels, so they can over throw Assad and build the pipeline unhindered.
So, basically, here’s the boiled down version. The US and Russia are in a proxy war in Syria over a pipeline which would end European dependency on Russian natural gas, so Europe would be free (er) to back sanctions and possible military actions against Russia if the need ever arose.
Our involvement in Syria has nothing to do with humanitarian aid or chemical weapons. It has to do with money, oil, and ending Russian dominance in the European energy market.
Keep your eyes open. And keep looking deeper.”


Reeling Republicans Rocked As Evidence Surfaces That Trump Took Illegal Contributions

The Campaign Legal Center (CLC) has filed new evidence with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging that the super PAC Make America Number 1 made illegal contributions to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

If Democrats win back control of the House or the Senate in 2018, they may have a wide variety of potential Trump crimes to investigate. The Russia scandal is the center of the dark cloud that is hanging over this administration, but following the money, investigators may find that Russia is just a part of the criminal activity that it took to get Donald Trump into the White House.


Thanks to your major parties for supporting ‘National Security’…

Metadata starts Tomorrow!


And it was great to be a Labor supporter when Ray Thorburn and Mike Egan turned Cook and Cronulla red if only for a short time.


Mike Egan was NSW treasurer in Bob Carr’s government. He was in the LC. He delivered budgets in the upper house from memory. He won Cronulla in the Wranslide. Lost it when things went back to normal for the seat.


Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 10:34 pm

However they may be called, there are not many of them…just under 622,000 in 2013.


Bob Katter says The Queensland government won’t get support for the budget if nothing is done about the crocodile population.

Katter made similar pronouncements during the Gillard govt, and they amounted to nothing. Seriously, it’s numptyville time in Qld.



Surely people from Montenegro are Montenegroes? 🙂


Doughnut Economics : seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist /
Kate Raworth

Identifies seven ways in which mainstream economics has led us astray, and sets out a roadmap for bringing humanity into a sweet spot. This title deconstructs the character of “Rational economic man” and explains what really makes us tick. It also aims to reframe and redraw the future of economics for a new generation.


George Monbiot:

So what are we going to do about it? This is the only question worth asking. But the answers appear elusive. Faced with a multifaceted crisis – the capture of governments by billionaires and their lobbyists, extreme inequality, the rise of demagogues, above all the collapse of the living world – those to whom we look for leadership appear stunned, voiceless, clueless. Even if they had the courage to act, they have no idea what to do.

The most they tend to offer is more economic growth: the fairy dust supposed to make all the bad stuff disappear. Never mind that it drives ecological destruction; that it has failed to relieve structural unemployment or soaring inequality; that, in some recent years, almost all the increment in incomes has been harvested by the top 1%. As values, principles and moral purpose are lost, the promise of growth is all that’s left.


Why would you cut it off right as was telling us what we need to know?


It’s the top secret military facility in Central Australia that plays a key role in US intelligence and military operations around the world.

But rather than protecting us from a potential enemy attack, Pine Gap’s very existence makes us an ideal target.


The US is strengthening a network of secretive military bases across Australia that could be used for waging wars against our interests, it was claimed at a weekend summit.

Instead of fostering crucial relationships, we are allowing the US to create enemies for us with its growing strategic presence on our soil, say the academics, politicians and campaigners who gathered for the Independent and Peaceful Australia Network (IPAN) conference attended by in Alice Springs this weekend.

Under a burning hot sun in the red centre, experts and citizens shared their fears over what is happening in the most remote parts of the country. These mysterious bases may be invisible to the majority of us living in the most populated regions along the coast, but could threaten the fabric of all our lives. Here’s what you need to know:



If Cormann was treasurer I’d imagine MT would deliver the budget speech. But this is just political theatre. I can’t recall and maybe NSW Bludgers will confirm, but from memory there was a NSW state govt treasurer in recent years who was in the upper house. It can be done, and in the case of our federal govt, would benefit the govt if ScoMo was removed from duty.


I’m not feeling good things right about now, expect relief that I live where I do, a place that is unlikely to be a military target if hostilities escalate courtesy of Trump’s incompetence and brutish diplomacy.

Me too! 🙂


Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 8:12 pm
Mighty Montenegro to join NATO!
There goes the balance of power…

wb, Boer.

If anyone needs NATO it’s the Montenegrins. They will be very good for moral support, wondrous beauty and, I suppose, grappa and other moonshine. As they have a charming bit of Adriatic coast to call their own, they will also have tinned fish, medieval battlements, safe inlets and a sense of history. These will be very useful compliments to their undoubted bravery and implacability.


@Player One
Yes, as you rightly say, we’ve talked it through. Apologies that my assumption about your not reading the link was false.
Nighty night.



ABC news also mentioned China muscling up. I’m not feeling good things right about now, expect relief that I live where I do, a place that is unlikely to be a military target if hostilities escalate courtesy of Trump’s incompetence and brutish diplomacy.