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BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

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1083 comments

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guytaur
Guest

Good Morning

I just heard a presser on citizenship changes from Turnbull and Dutton. It sounded to me like resurrecting the white Australia policy. Am I wrong?

chinda63
Guest

I still maintain that if Abbott gets Turnbull’s goat too much then Turnbull will just walk.

His ego has already been sated (he got to PM, after all), but if it all gets too much of a bloody effort then he’ll cite “wanting to spend more time with the grandkids” or whatever, and leave all those ungrateful bastards to fend for themselves.

I also still maintain that, in this event, they will go back to Abbott. Two reasons: firstly, they don’t have any other ‘tried and true’ leader and, secondly; they know that Abbott wants it and he’ll continue to snipe and undermine until he gets it back.

I still believe this will happen before the next election, which will be fought between Shorten and Abbott. Shorten will be our next PM 😀

Boerwar
Guest

CTaR1
‘Corbyn simply comes across as totally gormless.’
Not enough gorm to be totally gormless.
I would rate him at around 90% gormless, 5% utterly vacuous, and 5% grim determination to hang onto the nothingness of Opposition.

Question
Guest

Sorry I couldn’t give you some bad certainty : )
I saw Trump talking down the US$ recently. Most governments see a lower currency as a desirable way to make exports more competitive.

Bonza
Guest

Thanks for your insight. I’ve been told that even bad certainty is preferable to uncertainty when it comes to currency

KayJay
Guest

mari @ #1072 Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 3:14 pm

Lizzie
Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:57 pm
mari
Email support@crikey.com.au
I questioned them about a subscription and got a reply within 2 days.
Thanks Lizzie
Found that email about 10 minutes after I posted my cmoment. A very nice lady called Jess replied almost straight away all sorted now. She is also following up on the 2 telephone numbers

Thanks for that. I will keep a lookout for changes.
The numbers I have at present are:-
1800 985 502 and
03 8623 9900
The email address is as given by Lizzie
support@crikey.com.au
These requests come up from time to time and I have made business cards with the information (for my own benefit mostly) .
(◐.̃◐) Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

CTar1
Guest

Lizzie

Oueida, 41, sustained a single gunshot wound to his abdomen and he was taken to hospital by his two associates – aged 41 and 53 – in a 1998 LS400 Lexus sedan.

That he was taken to hospital in a 30 yo car is a strange detail to include!

Player One
Guest

lizzie @ #1068 Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 3:06 pm

What is it with Aussie IT?

I’m not sure there’s much left. Many Australians have left the industry to be replaced by 457 visa holders. Sure, they can’t code – but they’re cheap!

Question
Guest

Bonza.
May’s crystal Ball on Brexit (and she has had to go into the detail) would concentrate on the political. I’m not sure we can extrapolate that to the currency.

lizzie
Guest

I notice that all the crims drive expensive cars. It would hurt their pride to be seen in a common —, I suppose.

Oueida, one of Australia’s most influential organised crime figures when he was arrested in 2011, has been described in court as the “new Tony Mokbel”.

Police describe him as highly charismatic, intelligent and influential. At the time of his arrest, police alleged he had $6 million in a Swiss bank account, a light plane, a $2.8 million mansion, a Ferrari, and suspected property and business interests in Lebanon, the Solomon Islands, Abu Dhabi and Pakistan.

Senior police feared Oueida’s release from prison would disrupt the delicate balance of power between warring factions in the city’s north-west, the epicentre of Melbourne’s soaring gun crime.

Fairfax Media is not suggesting Oueida is linked to the shootings.

He is an associate of the Comanchero bikie gang, and the notorious Haddara and Kheir crime families.

Police now fear there will be reprisals, potentially ramping-up the tit-for-tat shootings over control of the drug trade after key players were jailed.

Shooting the 41-year-old outside a mosque where he prayed regularly broke what little was left of an unwritten code between the factions, in which shootings were not permitted in front of families and children.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/major-crime-kingpin-mohammed-oueida-shot-as-he-leaves-melbourne-mosque-20170418-gvnhdd.html

mari
Guest

Lizzie
Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:57 pm
mari

Email support@crikey.com.au
I questioned them about a subscription and got a reply within 2 days.

Thanks Lizzie
Found that email about 10 minutes after I posted my cmoment. A very nice lady called Jess replied almost straight away all sorted now. She is also following up on the 2 telephone numbers

Question
Guest

Bonza,
I would not pretend to know. Ask Soros : )

I personally think Brexit itself (forgetting elections) would not be great for the UK economy, or the currency in the long term.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Here us the full Essential poll.
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Essential-Report_170418.pdf
For some reason, the Guardian articles & charts leave out the full primaries, NXT & Others are always missing. But you can still get them from the Essential site.

frednk
Guest

Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 3:06 pm

Dan Gulberry
Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:27 pm

First Dog On The Moon’s guide to preparing for nuclear war. Are you ready?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/first-dog-on-the-moons-guide-to-preparing-for-nuclear-war-are-you-ready

I don’t know you youngins, what do they teach you at school.
Please both feet firmly on the ground;
Put you head between your legs in the full brace position;
And kiss your A** good buy.

lizzie
Guest

What is it with Aussie IT?

All Australian states and territories have now abandoned a trial of online NAPLAN tests this year due to technical glitches that could disadvantage students.

A pilot of the online literacy and numeracy test is in disarray, with the Victorian, Western Australian and ACT governments announcing on Wednesday that they would withdraw from the trial and South Australian and Queensland ditching it earlier this month.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/all-australian-states-abandon-online-naplan-due-to-glitches-20170419-gvnj6j.html

Bonza
Guest

Question
What do you imagine will happen to the value of the GBP£? May’s announcement gave it a boost (which is good for me). Is it still headed for a cliff or do you think it will improve further?

Raaraa
Guest

kakuru @ #1060 Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 2:50 pm

Ossoff sinking below 50%. Still a great result, but not enough to avert a run-off. The head-to-head will be tougher for Ossoff.

They’ll have to make sure that those who voted for him come back, or if the ones who voted Republican are so turned off, they decided not to return.

Question
Guest

Bonza,
As many have suggested, May going to the polls when she already has a working majority suggests she can see Brexit is going to be a complete train wreck and wants to push the next election as far back as she can.

lizzie
Guest

Andrew Leigh‏Verified account @ALeighMP · 3h3 hours ago

Funnily, Barnaby Joyce’s talking points on the APVMA move don’t mention that it’ll cost more, deliver less & disrupt hundreds of workers.

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