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Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

As Labor picks up a point, Essential Research finds Nick Xenophon, Derryn Hinch and Jacqui Lambie to be more popular than Pauline Hanson, David Leyonhjelm and Cory Bernardi.

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Labor picks up a point in this week’s reading of Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average, which did not allow the Easter long weekend to interrupt its schedule. The major parties exchange a point on the primary vote, with Labor up to 37% and the Coalition down to 36%, while the Greens and One Nation hold steady at 10% and 8% respectively.

Also included are approving ratings for cross-benchers Senators, which I like to think they asked because I suggested it to them a few weeks ago, and it’s turned up the finding I was fishing for when I did: namely, that Jacqui Lambie, at 32% approval and 30% disapproval, is more popular than the overrated Pauline Hanson, at 32% and 48%. Still less popular are David Leyonhjelm, with 9% approval, 28% disapproval and a forbiddingly high “don’t know about them”, and Cory Bernardi, whose respective numbers are 10%, 34% and 41% (“not sure” accounts for the balance). At the top of the charts is Nick Xenophon, at 35% approval and 25% disapproval, followed by Derryn Hinch at 35% and 27%.

The poll also records 38% support for allowing superannuation to be accessible when buying a home, with 50% opposed, and has a suite of questions on the American intervention in Syria: 41% approve of last week’s bombing with 36% opposed; 37% say they would support US ground troops being sent, with 39% opposed; and 31% saying they would approve of an Australian contribution, with 50% opposed.

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1057 comments

1,057 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

  1. lizzie

    William

    Jacqui Lambie, at 32% approval and 30% disapproval, is more popular than the overrated Pauline Hanson, at 32% and 48%.

    Excellent.

  2. lizzie

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/opinion-dont-be-fooled-by-the-457-visa-decision/news-story/1a649d64f8da10b1c97db1e49e362f5d

    The changes proposed won’t achieve much other than serving to frustrate business, create unnecessary paper pushing for bureaucrats and fund an extra annual holiday in the Maldives for migrant agents.

    Luckily, there is a simple solution to ensuring employers don’t use this visa category to recruit overseas workers for low skill or entry level jobs; jobs that could be filled by Australians who are currently out of work. And that is by setting a much higher and more strictly enforced minimum salary requirement.

    So if your business needs a migrant’s specific skillet so badly that you cannot find any Australians to do the work — well, then you can pay them properly for it. This will stop employers abusing the system and deliberately recruiting low skilled overseas workers because they’re cheaper. Skilled and highly educated temporary migrants are also less susceptible to exploitation.

    The minimum salary for a skilled temporary worker under the 457 visa class is currently $53,900. No change has been proposed to this figure, which incidentally hasn’t been indexed for several years.

    Independent reviews have recommended the minimum salary be increased substantially but these have been ignored by government. Doing so would help achieve the government’s stated policy aims, rather than messing about with the small stuff as a means of demonising migrants.

    Unemployed and underemployed Australians deserve better than political game playing by Malcolm Turnbull, a prime minister who cares more about his own job than theirs.

  3. Boerwar

    CTaR1
    ‘Corbyn simply comes across as totally gormless.’
    Not enough gorm to be totally gormless.
    I would rate him at around 90% gormless, 5% utterly vacuous, and 5% grim determination to hang onto the nothingness of Opposition.

  4. Simon Dagg Katich

    Corbyn ≠ Sanders
    Di Natale = i²
    Speaking of algebra. Is anyone else getting the advertisement with the equation sqrt(x+15) + sqrt(x) = 15 at the top of the crikey page? It has annoyed me so much today that I had to calculate it.

    Its is almost as annoying as the advert saying “you wouldnt believe what William Bowe looks like in a suit and tie”.

  5. ItzaDream

    Dramatic Plan ahoy:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/19/coalition-announces-dramatic-public-service-decentralisation-plan

    This should last a few days, at least until Pence and Mother arrive, three more sleeps.

  6. CTar1

    ItzaDream

    Dramatic Plan ahoy:

    A brilliant plan to totally deskill the APS.

  7. a r

    Simon Dagg Katich @ #NaN Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 – 4:28 pm

    Corbyn ≠ Sanders
    Di Natale = i²
    Speaking of algebra. Is anyone else getting the advertisement with the equation sqrt(x+15) + sqrt(x) = 15 at the top of the crikey page? It has annoyed me so much today that I had to calculate it.

    I don’t get that one. But x=49?

  8. lizzie

    CTar1

    Moving departments will cost more dough, disrupt families, and bring great swathes of work to a halt for several months. Just what we need from our so-efficient government, without the real NBN, too.

    I’ve nothing against decentralisation as a theory, but this was instigated by Barnaby doing some pork-barrelling to defeat Windsor, not through a well-considered plan.

  9. Simon Dagg Katich

    AR – yes. Thats what I got. I struggle for a minute on it.
    Daddy brain.

  10. ItzaDream

    David Hayes from London on the numbers, Scotland, and uncertainty.

    http://insidestory.org.au/theresa-mays-gauntlet-election

  11. ItzaDream

    CTar1
    A brilliant plan to totally deskill the APS

    Ripper (sic) of a brain fart this one. Lucky they have a brilliant NBN to paper over the cracks (sic).

  12. lizzie

    ICYMI. Gives the lie to Mal’s blaming Labor for the current situation with 457s.

    2014 (part of the “cut red tape for business” rort)

    The Abbott government has quietly reopened a visa loophole that will allow employers to hire an unlimited number of foreign workers under a temporary working visa, in a move that unions say will bring back widespread rorting of the system.

    In the Coalition’s bid to remove all ”red tape” from the 457 skilled migrant visa, employers will not be penalised or scrutinised if they hire more foreign staff than they applied for.

    Before the loophole was closed in 2013 by the Labor government, companies in the mining, construction and IT industries were knowingly hiring hundreds more foreign workers than they had applied for.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rort-fears-as-457-visa-loophole-reopened-20140311-34kgr.html

  13. Player One

    I wonder what faded 1950’s policy the LNP will pull off the bottom of the discard pile next? Can’t be much left they haven’t tried, so I’m going to go with National Service.

  14. lizzie

    Player One

    Abbott’s Green Army had a faint flavour of that, but he mucked it up.

  15. a r

    Simon Dagg Katich @ #NaN Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 – 4:46 pm

    AR – yes. Thats what I got. I struggle for a minute on it.
    Daddy brain.

    I mainly relied on guess-and-check. Still trying to recall the actual way to simplify radicals algebraically.

    I knew how to do this properly, at one point.

  16. Voice Endeavour

    @ Boerwar – sad to see you still campaigning for the Tories.

  17. Nicholas

    Electorally, “Labour members” and “the wider public” are not on the same page.

    Blairite Third Way centrists led the party to defeat in 2010 and 2015 through their incompetence, arrogance, and flawed policy framework. Since Corbyn was elected leader they have been undermining him and muddying Labour’s message. We know that the public is not on the same page as the Blairites. It would be nice if there could be a clear contest between the platform that Labour members support and the platform that the Conservatives have been enacting during the past seven years. Sadly it looks like such a contest won’t happen because of the dishonourable and profoundly stupid conduct of the Blairites.
    The Labour leader after the election will be someone acceptable to the Labour membership, which rules out a Blairite. It will be either Corbyn or someone with the same policy priorities as Corbyn.

  18. Boerwar

    VE
    I trust you have actually taken a nanosecond to check what is happening in the UK?
    Corbyn is utterly unelectable.
    On the core issue in the coming election, Brexit, he is widely regarded as being a two bob each way waffler.
    A majority of MPs in his own Party want him gone.
    The notion that wanting Corbyn to do the decent thing and just fuck off so that someone with a skerrick of a chance of knocking May off is the same as ‘campaigning for the Tories’ is utterly ludicrous.
    It is time the Left woke up to itself. Self indulgent fluffy wankery is handing power to the racist Right around the world.
    Sanders helped Trump.
    Di Natale helped Turnbull.
    Corbyn is helping May.

  19. Boerwar

    So, for the best-placed of them, around 65% of the electorate would not give tuppence for the cross benchers.

  20. Boerwar

    If Corbyn had some gorm the British electorate would now have a wonderful chance to reverse Brexit.

  21. ItzaDream

    So how long to work up and build a pipeline from West to East? By this summer? While we rejig the Snowy? Only aussie workers mind you.

    Barnett’s idea:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-19/cormann-confirms-federal-government-examining-west-to-east-gas-/8454820

  22. Boerwar

    From I’s link:
    ‘Mr Frydenberg said at the conference today the Government made it clear to domestic gas producers they would like them to service the domestic economy.’

    Well, belt me round the ears with a wet lettuce.

  23. Voice Endeavour

    I trust you have actually taken a nanosecond to check what is happening in the UK?
    I see from your comments that you have not. If you’d like me to explain anything, don’t hesitate to ask.

    Corbyn is utterly unelectable.
    While his MPs continue to snipe at him? Possibly. The solution, stop the sniping.

    On the core issue in the coming election, Brexit, he is widely regarded as being a two bob each way waffler.
    It’s almost as if he is in favor of a soft Brexit, with continuing close and fair relations with Europe, and against a hard Brexit, with little, no, or aggressive interactions with Europe. How dare he?

    A majority of MPs in his own Party want him gone.
    You have identified the problem at last. Like you, these MPs need to back their leader and shift their attacks to the Conservatives.

    The notion that wanting Corbyn to do the decent thing and just fuck off so that someone with a skerrick of a chance of knocking May off is the same as ‘campaigning for the Tories’ is utterly ludicrous.
    When Turnbull was leading in the opinion polls vs Shorten, Albo didn’t snipe, he didn’t undermine. He backed his leader. Plenty of people made exactly the same criticisms of Shorten that you do of Corbyn. Be honest, you told them that criticising Shorten and/or backing Albo was campaigning for Turnbull.

    It is time the Left woke up to itself. Self indulgent fluffy wankery is handing power to the racist Right around the world.
    I can explain this in more detail to you if you don’t understand, but UK Labour spent a long time trying to be ‘conservative light’. It didn’t work. Left wing parties become popular by standing up for left issues, not by minimising the difference between themselves and the right.
    Sanders helped Trump.
    Clinton helped Trump by sabotaging Sanders. Clinton should have identified that Sanders was the right person for the times, and gone in to bat for him.
    Di Natale helped Turnbull.
    Labor helped Turnbull by spending so much time and effort criticising Di Natale and by competing in seats that will inevitably go Green (like Batman).
    Corbyn is helping May.
    You are helping May by sabotaging Corbyn.

  24. Douglas and Milko

    SDK
    [ Speaking of algebra. Is anyone else getting the advertisement with the equation sqrt(x+15) + sqrt(x) = 15 at the top of the crikey page? It has annoyed me so much today that I had to calculate it. ]

    No, I am not getting any ads, not sure why, but after you posted that, i just had to calculate it!

  25. a r

    Finally remembered the correct way:

    Square both sides; 2x + 15 + 2(sqrt(x) * sqrt(x + 15)) = 225
    Clear constants and common factors, multiply radicals; x + sqrt(x^2 + 15x) = 105
    Put non-radicals on their own side; sqrt(x^2 + 15x) = 105 – x
    Square both sides (again); x^2 + 15x = 105^2 – 210x + x^2
    Combine variables; 225x = 105^2
    Solve; x = 105^2 / 225 = 49

  26. Simon Dagg Katich

    A R
    When you sound it out like that it makes it sexy.

  27. Douglas and Milko

    Simon and AR,
    We had a bit of a competition here – we are very competitive about puzzles at home.
    OH got your solution AR. I cheated with a numerical method in excel. I got there a bit more quickly, but not by much.

  28. KayJay

    From comments regarding the dumb asses, the stupid, the PHON voters, in particular comments regarding the very low Dem vote in some US states; it now seems to me that movies such as Deliverance 웃, Dumb and Dumber 유, Southern Comfort ⚔, Two Thousand Maniacs ☿. Pause for breath – add you own punctuation and further list.
    These movies are not just fictitious entertainment, they are documentaries.
    Say what you like about our ABC the Ozzie equivalents of the mentioned citizens don’t watch no ABC, they are waiting for a phone call from “Sunrise” to which they must say the magic words (sorry, the favourite daughter told me the magic words but I have tried very hard and have managed to forget).
    Sunday is a good time for our friends to listen to “Macca” ☠ and git your right thinking information regarding the non existent climate change scam and other nastiness.
    Also can the clever buggers working out X= something or other please stop it. You know you are only doing it to embarrass me.
    ☮ ✌ ☕

  29. Late Riser

    a r @ #NaN Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 – 5:31 pm

    Finally remembered the correct way:

    Square both sides; 2x + 15 + 2(sqrt(x) * sqrt(x + 15)) = 225
    Clear constants and common factors, multiply radicals; x + sqrt(x^2 + 15x) = 105
    Put non-radicals on their own side; sqrt(x^2 + 15x) = 105 – x
    Square both sides (again); x^2 + 15x = 105^2 – 210x + x^2
    Combine variables; 225x = 105^2
    Solve; x = 105^2 / 225 = 49

  30. victoria

    Boerwar

    Your post re Sanders, Di Natale and Corbyn assisting the other side is spot on!!

  31. mimhoff

    What happened to team “no excuses”?

  32. Late Riser

    a r @ #26 Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 5:31 pm

    Finally remembered the correct way:
    Square both sides; 2x + 15 + 2(sqrt(x) * sqrt(x + 15)) = 225
    Clear constants and common factors, multiply radicals; x + sqrt(x^2 + 15x) = 105
    Put non-radicals on their own side; sqrt(x^2 + 15x) = 105 – x
    Square both sides (again); x^2 + 15x = 105^2 – 210x + x^2
    Combine variables; 225x = 105^2
    Solve; x = 105^2 / 225 = 49

    double grr..

    Sorry. But I have to jump in. You may be suffering from algebraic indoctrination, or perhaps you simply enjoy algebraic gymnastics. There is no single “correct” way, only a correct answer.

    For example you could assume from the equation that it is very likely that X must be an integer square number or it could not yield an integer result. You could also rule out big square numbers such as 100 by a simple substitution. Trial and error of integer squares between 1 and 100 would get you the correct answer pretty quickly. I’d expect there are many other ways to arrive at the answer of 49.

    This is a battle I regularly had with “pure” maths guys when I was doing numerical simulations. If you get an answer that works you call it good. If you want to do pure maths then by all means enjoy that, but I’ll get on to the next problem. For a long time I felt I was missing something by not doing it the “correct way”, but I now understand the differences between a mathematician, a physicist, and an engineer.

  33. CTar1

    D&M

    We had a bit of a competition here

    I just knew some other sucker would come up with the answer.

  34. ratsak

    Opening of Nine news in Sydney was absolutely brutal on Turnbull.

  35. Monica Lynagh

    I’ve seen some strange things discussed in the PB lounge, but arguments about how to solve some strange maths type problem most of us don’t even begin to understand, are about the weirdest.

  36. John Reidy

    On my son’s Facebook feed last night was a link for “25 Hilarious photos of owners who look like their pet’s.”
    There was only one owner/pet pair: on the left was Malcolm Turnbull, on the right Tony Abbott.

  37. a r

    Late Riser @ Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 – 5:53 pm

    For example you could assume from the equation that it is very likely that X must be an integer square number or it could not yield an integer result. You could also rule out big square numbers such as 100 by a simple substitution.

    Yes, I actually solved it that way first. It’s faster, easier, and more intuitive than the algebraic way (you just have to look for perfect squares that have a difference of 15 between them, of which there aren’t very many). Then I thought maybe I should solve it the other way, since I couldn’t even remember how.

    I’d say both approaches have value. Intuiting the answer works well for riddles and puzzles that have been set up to have a nice, rational answer. Finding it algebraically is clunky, but is guaranteed to work regardless of how nasty, irrational, or imaginary the numbers become.

  38. booleanbach

    Oh dear
    sqrt(x+15) + sqrt(x) = 15
    sqrt(x+15)=15-sqrt(x)
    Square both sides
    x+15-15^2 +x -30sqrt(x)
    30sqrt(x)=15^2-15 = 15*(15-2)=15*14
    sqrt(x)=7
    x=49

  39. booleanbach

    oops after sq both side
    x+15=15^2+x-3-sqrt(x)

  40. Tom

    So the Nats are pushing to decentralise Govt agencies to their own electorates – pork barrelling by another name.

    Tom.

  41. Darn

    Ratsak
    Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 6:01 pm
    Opening of Nine news in Sydney was absolutely brutal on Turnbull.

    Ratsak

    For those of us who didn’t see it, can you please expand a bit?

  42. Douglas and Milko

    but I now understand the differences between a mathematician, a physicist, and an engineer.
    A mathematician, a physicist and an engineer are given the task of taking a kettle of water sitting on a kitchen bench, putting it on a gas hotplate, and bringing it to the boil.
    The mathematician lights the gas hot plate, and then places the kettle on the hot plate, and waits for it to boil.
    The physicist puts the kettle on the hotplate, then lights the gas hotplate, and waits for the kettle to boil.
    The engineer puts the kettle on the stove and then sets fire to the stove.

    The kettle is then put on the floor, and the three are again asked to boil the water.
    The physicist lifts the kettle from the floor, puts it on the hotplate, then lights the gas hotplate, and waits for the kettle to boil.
    The engineer sets fire to the room.
    The mathematician picks the kettle up from the floor and places it on the kitchen bench, reducing it to the problem previously solved.

    I know, and oldie, but still a goodie…

  43. Douglas and Milko

    CTar1
    😀

  44. lizzie

    The Drum has a v.good discussion on the visa question, and decentralisation.
    Includes an advertising exec, an academic and a physicist.

  45. Late Riser

    AR #38
    I completely agree. It was the “correct” that triggered the memories. You choose the approach for the problem at hand.

    D&M #43
    I hadn’t heard that one but it’s true.

  46. zoidlord

    skilled temporary worker at 53K?!?! Fuck me dead! For the amount of work I do all I get is 35k!!!

    Which is just above Centrelink DSP..

    Fucking joke!

  47. Simon Dagg Katich

    Boolean, that was my way. Even with a pause when squaring the right side it took a handleful of seconds – or about as long as a Turnbull announcement takes to crumble into farce.

  48. kakuru

    Corbyn is unelectable. That’s the hard truth. The reason why so many of his fellow MPs don’t want him as leader is because they want to hold on to their seats. You know, keep their jobs.
    Corbyn is a dud. British voters know it.

  49. lizzie

    JLWhitaker‏ @JL_Whitaker · 38m38 minutes ago

    If you’re going to move an agency, you’ll need a proper NBN, or a huge McDonalds
    #thedrum

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