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Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another status quo result from Essential Research, as a new entrant in the Australian polling market prepares to take the field.

The latest Essential Research poll, conducted for The Guardian Australia, has two-party preferred steady at 53-47, with both major parties up a point each, to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 37% in Labor’s, and the two biggest minor parties down one, leaving the Greens at 9% and One Nation at 7%. Other findings:

• Compulsory voting has the support of 66% of respondents, which is down five points since the question was last asked in October 2013, with 27% opposed, up two. Eighty per cent say they would have been likely to vote if it were not compulsory, versus 12% for unlikely.

• Economic sentiment has improved since December, with 30% now describing the state of the economy as good (up seven) and 29% as poor (down seven), and 29% thinking it headed in the right direction (up three) against 41% for the wrong direction (down four).

• A question on budget priorities find respondents want spending increased on nearly everything, with the exception of defence, foreign aid and business assistance, with health care, education and age pensions at the top of the chart. Respondents expect the budget will most favour business and the well off, and least favour “older Australians” and “you personally”.

• Contrary to expectations earlier in his career, respondents are confident that Malcolm Turnbull can deliver on “tougher citizenship requirements”, “tighter regulations for foreign workers” and “secure borders”, but not a strong economy, jobs and growth, a balanced budget and, most of all “action on climate change”.

In other polling news, there will shortly be a new entrant into the market in the shape of British market behemoth YouGov:

A new nationally representative political poll launches and goes into the field for the first time this week — a partnership between leading international research and polling firm YouGov and Australian engagement and communications agency Fifty Acres.

YouGov is an international online market research firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Australia …

The poll will be a fortnightly online survey conducted amongst 1,000 Australians aged 18+. The poll sample is nationally representative with quotas based on age, gender and region.

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1698 comments

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don
Guest
lizzie @ #1459 #1459 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 3:46 pm Simon Aussie Katich I know of an elderly lady who had a hip replacement and couldn’t sleep, so she used mj cookies and found them an excellent ‘sleeping pill’. I assume with a cookie you can vary the amount you eat – don’t have to scoff a whole plateful! Indeed. It is not rocket science. Many people know how many beers/wines/scotches to have to tread the fine line between feeling good and feeling rotten. Some do not, of course. As Henry Lawson said, ‘Beer makes you feel the way… Read more »
don
Guest

simon aussie katich @ #1456 #1456 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 3:41 pm

Don -**I am just asking on behalf of a friend.**
My friend warned me that eating the stuff causes a slow absorption that whacks you out for ages.

My friend says ‘Isn’t that what we were aiming for?’

bemused
Guest

cud chewer @ #1686 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 11:44 pm

The solar updraft tower seems to have been a victim of increasingly cheaper PV. I would have loved to have seen one built if only for the chance to see the view from the top

Sorry, went to bed before you responded.
But PV can’t provide power 24/7. Solar updraft really captured my imagination when I first read about it.

Whisper
Guest

Scrolling through the overnights posts. It can best be said of P1 is that s/he is a commercial gas producer

don
Guest
CC: What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers. Solar thermal with salt batteries has been bothering me too.… Read more »
Blanket Criticism
Guest

Just in case you still think the Libs wanting to destroy medicare was a scare campaign, this should remove any doubt. Apparently our Prime Minister thinks it’s great that Trump took healthcare coverage off 24 million Americans so he could give a tax cut to the top 2 percent of income earners.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/05/05/11/14/malcolm-turnbull-praises-donald-trump-on-successful-vote-to-repeal-obamacare

Labor should have a sign of every street corner next election simply saying:

Turnball on Trumpcare:

“It’s great!”

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Night all!

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

One for both of you, is Enviro Mission’s solar updraft tower proposal going anywhere?
Another 24/7 alternative that looked good to me.

Nup, not on my radar.
But it does look great!

Libertarian Unionist
Guest
What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers. Much extra value is in the storage, ramping and and synchronous… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

I think the other thing that Nicholas misses is the makeup of the French Parliament will mitigate the outcome.

Matt
Guest

Nicholas:
“Austerity is a very great evil, and centrists do far more damage to societies than far-right fringe parties.”
Demonstrably untrue. A casual flick through a history book will tell you that civic society goes out the window when the far-right get into power. I’m not downplaying the damage of “austerity now, austerity forever!” types, but let’s be honest here.

cud chewer
Guest

The solar updraft tower seems to have been a victim of increasingly cheaper PV. I would have loved to have seen one built if only for the chance to see the view from the top 🙂

grimace
Guest
player one @ #1661 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:35 pm cud chewer @ #1660 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:33 pm Notice how P1 has nothing to say to this.. But P1 is always saying how gas would be economic if only they’d have cheaper gas. What part of “WA has an oversupply of electricity” did you fail to understand? The issue of apparent oversupply of electricity in WA is complicated and you should probably avail yourself of the operation of the WA capacity market before you discredit yourself again by involving yourself in matters outside of your area… Read more »
swamprat
Guest

“Everything’s different after today, folks. Scotland’s choice will never have been more stark: extreme Tories in the UK for years and years to come, or self-governance. Let the chips fall where the people choose.”

https://wingsoverscotland.com/you-can-actually-try-changing-it/

grimace
Guest
player one @ #1666 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:41 pm grimace @ #1662 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:36 pm “Even when your state economy is tanking…” – demonstrably untrue https://www.commsec.com.au/stateofstates – April 2017 report: Western Australia continues to lag other economies and annual growth rates remain below national averages on all indicators. … The economic performance of Western Australia continues to reflect the ending of the mining construction boom. Do I need to bother with the rest of your post? I can imagine you don’t want to bother with my post, its a line by line debunking of… Read more »
bemused
Guest
cud chewer @ #1681 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 11:10 pm LU, What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

LU,

What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers.

bemused
Guest

cud chewer @ #1670 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:45 pm

Do I need to bother with the rest of your post?

Condescending, arrogant and rude. Typical of a lot of your posts P1.

This is hilarious. P1 is going to have a STFU list including half of PB the way it is going.
I feel a sense of vindication as the first to go on its list after calling it out as a troll and a nasty one at that.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Molten salt is one of the chemicals that can be used in a solar thermal plant.

And a thorium reactor. Slightly different salts, mind you.

cud chewer
Guest
Just how up to date do you need? I’d be happy for you to accept the trend. I’m seeing utility scale solar trending well under $2/W for the entire plant and possibly getting close to $1/W in the near future. I’m seeing batteries trending to below $200/KWhr in the near future. These are entirely investable numbers. What they may ultimately trend towards, the end game is pretty clear. And again and again people refer you to the investability of gas, but you refuse to engage them and it shits me off seeing you do this day in day out. Frankly… Read more »
swamprat
Guest

One notices the Manchester Guardian has electoral maps only for four parties: Con, Lab, LibDem and UKIP. The third largest party in Westminster, the SNP, is not mapped. 🙂

cud chewer
Guest
You complain when I provide evidence What I’ve complained about is the lack of caution to your approach. The fact that you don’t seem to realise or care that the basic numbers are changing every month. You seem to think “what is, proves what will always be”. And the way you deal with other people’s posts when they point out that yes indeed, renewables are getting cheaper, yes indeed batteries are getting cheaper is quite breathtaking. Intellectually dishonest sleight of hand where you never deny that these things are getting cheaper, but you still rush to the conclusion that this… Read more »
Player One
Guest

cud chewer @ #1674 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:49 pm

Try me. When I first saw you posting “evidence” it was selectively culled figures from dated reports.

Just how up to date do you need? The last few reports which I have quoted from are all from within the last few months. Some within the last few weeks, and a few within the last few days.

I’m over this. You are simply ridiculous.

cud chewer
Guest

I have tried posting evidence

Try me. When I first saw you posting “evidence” it was selectively culled figures from dated reports. This is the thing I don’t get P1. You seem to have no self doubt. No sense of “hey hang on a bit, what if the world has changed since then?”. You see the very first thing I did with you (while on holiday, on a mobile and unable to type much) was to politely suggest your data is out of date. And your response? Scholarly? Cautious? No. You were rude to me straight out.

Player One
Guest

cud chewer @ #1670 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:45 pm

Condescending, arrogant and rude. Typical of a lot of your posts P1.

You complain when I provide evidence to back up my assertions, and you complain when I don’t.

I can see I can’t win.

swamprat
Guest

Poroti
i note that Plaid Cymru has had an increase of 11 in Councillors, so far!!
Scottish counting is a bit more leisurely…..so far SNP only +5 .. but more to come.

Player One
Guest
cud chewer @ #1668 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:43 pm This is typical of the kind of intellectual dishonest you employ P1. Its irrelevant and it means you fail to face up to your fundamental error in fact. Your belief that renewables with storage are too expensive and will continue to be so for decades. I tired politely and calmly to prod you into questioning your own assumptions long ago. But your rude and arrogant responses are what prompted the end of my patience with you. If you cannot even ask yourself “hey, wait a moment here.. what if… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

Do I need to bother with the rest of your post?

Condescending, arrogant and rude. Typical of a lot of your posts P1.

Player One
Guest

cud chewer @ #1663 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:38 pm

Again, P1, all you do is continue to restate something that is factually incorrect, without ever using evidence or forming a good argument.

I have tried posting evidence. You people seem to have been vaccinated against it. So why bother boring the pants off everyone else here all over again? The evidence is not hard to find if anyone wants to look for it.

cud chewer
Guest
What part of “WA has an oversupply of electricity” did you fail to understand? This is typical of the kind of intellectual dishonest you employ P1. Its irrelevant and it means you fail to face up to your fundamental error in fact. Your belief that renewables with storage are too expensive and will continue to be so for decades. I tired politely and calmly to prod you into questioning your own assumptions long ago. But your rude and arrogant responses are what prompted the end of my patience with you. If you cannot even ask yourself “hey, wait a moment… Read more »
swamprat
Guest

Poroti

I should have acknowledged that i was quoting Alex Salmond 🙂
Yes Sir Lynton is in charge again.

Player One
Guest

grimace @ #1662 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:36 pm

“Even when your state economy is tanking…” – demonstrably untrue

https://www.commsec.com.au/stateofstates – April 2017 report:

Western Australia continues to lag other economies and annual growth rates remain below national averages on all indicators.

The economic performance of Western Australia continues to reflect the ending of the mining construction boom.

Do I need to bother with the rest of your post?

poroti
Guest

Swamprat

The Tories have destroyed UKIP by becoming UKIP.

Ah, used the John Howard strategy re ‘One Notion’ MkI. Not surprising as they use the Aussie piece of puss Lynton Crosby.

grimace
Guest

vogon poet @ #1409 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 2:18 pm

The Bloomberg report says that batteries are not cost effective for long term storage, and that pumped hydro and solar thermal are some methods that need to be developed. I read several years ago about molten salt , what is the current state of play of this technology as it hasn’t taken off as predicted ?

Molten salt is one of the chemicals that can be used in a solar thermal plant.

cud chewer
Guest

I am merely pointing out that without such direction (or heavy subsidies) it would not yet happen of its own accord

Again, P1, all you do is continue to restate something that is factually incorrect, without ever using evidence or forming a good argument.

grimace
Guest
player one @ #1650 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:12 pm grimace @ #1649 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 9:56 pm There we go with another fact lite post P1. Whereas your post is full of fact, but short on relevance. Old power stations get decommissioned. What else would you expect? New power stations will replace them, and the state government has decided to force these to be renewables, since otherwise the pure economics of the situation would dictate otherwise. No my post debunked the rubbish you posted, and now you are trying to move the goal posts: “Even when… Read more »
Player One
Guest

cud chewer @ #1660 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:33 pm

Notice how P1 has nothing to say to this.. But P1 is always saying how gas would be economic if only they’d have cheaper gas.

What part of “WA has an oversupply of electricity” did you fail to understand?

cud chewer
Guest

WA has a gas reservation policy and does not have the same problems that the eastern states has with gas supply. Synergy’s legacy gas contracts are for about 1/3 the world price. If the eastern states were smart they would have done the same thing.

Notice how P1 has nothing to say to this.. But P1 is always saying how gas would be economic if only they’d have cheaper gas.

swamprat
Guest

The Tories have destroyed UKIP by becoming UKIP.

Player One
Guest

cud chewer @ #1655 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:29 pm

When these sorts of issues crop up in the debate, P1 just gets nasty.

You are the master of “nasty”, CC. Which is why I don’t generally bother to respond to your tripe.

swamprat
Guest

After 40 years Labour has lost control of Glasgow City Council. The SNP will be the largest party and hopefully with Green support it can form Government.

Player One
Guest
jimmydoyle @ #1651 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:17 pm If the WA state government is changing the economics of renewable energy then the problem with this is… what? Don’t mistake me – I have absolutely no problems with directing new plants to be renewables, and in a small state like WA which currently have an oversupply of electricity due to reduced demand, this may be sound policy. I am merely pointing out that without such direction (or heavy subsidies) it would not yet happen of its own accord, nor would it be feasible in the larger states , or… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest
since otherwise the pure economics of the situation would dictate otherwise. This is true only because you say so, P1. You’ve gone so far down this path you don’t even remember when people took you to task over your most basic claims of fact and were rude and snarky in the process. Lets repeat for the sake of the still sane. P1 claims that gas is somehow cheaper than renewables plus storage. This is the core error that underlies all of P1s “arguments”. P1 has not put forward an argument for this apart from P1s wishful thinking that gas prices… Read more »
grimace
Guest
player one @ #1405 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 2:11 pm trog sorrenson @ #1402 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 2:04 pm Renewables will put coal out of business by 2032 according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Gas cannot do that. It is too expensive, with or without a reservation policy. Here is what the article you just posted says … Redman even invited his audience to imagine a 100 per cent renewable energy scenario in the year 2050, just a year or so after AGL closes its last brown coal generator Yes, it’s surrounded by lots of “maybe’s” that… Read more »
Barney in Go Dau
Guest

chinda63 @ #1646 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 9:49 pm

Sorry: not sure why I lost the rest of my comment.
I went on to suggest that, despite driving from Kapunda to Nuriootpa on so many occasions over the past 3 years I’ve actually lost count, I clearly can’t be trusted to navigate my way out of a wet paper bag.
Thanks for the heads-up, Barney.

You had me worried, I thought maybe the town had floated away during the last floods.
I had to double check on a couple maps. 🙂

grimace
Guest
trog sorrenson @ #1386 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 1:31 pm But don’t let that thinking lead you to believe that we can afford to put off action until renewables can be deployed at scale Absolute wank. Renewables are being deployed at scale, and it is a lot quicker to roll out a lot of smaller local projects, than a few big centralised ones, as with gas. There are currently 3 gigawatts of wind and solar projects signed off right now. This is double the capacity of Yallourn W. How much gas generation is actually signed off right now– as… Read more »
JimmyDoyle
Guest

Player One
the state government has decided to force these to be renewables, since otherwise the pure economics of the situation would dictate otherwise.

If the WA state government is changing the economics of renewable energy then the problem with this is… what?

Player One
Guest

grimace @ #1649 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 9:56 pm

There we go with another fact lite post P1.

Whereas your post is full of fact, but short on relevance. Old power stations get decommissioned. What else would you expect? New power stations will replace them, and the state government has decided to force these to be renewables, since otherwise the pure economics of the situation would dictate otherwise.

grimace
Guest
player one @ #1580 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 8:17 pm grimace @ #1566 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 7:24 pm Also, bad news for the gas industry with Synergy also announcing plans to decommission 196MW of gas-fired peaking plants. Synergy and the WA government must have not got P1’s memo on the importance of gas to future energy supply. LoL! Even when your state economy is tanking and you find yourselves with an oversupply of electricity, the government had to direct its own state-owned supplier to close its own fossil-fueled power plants. Yes, this certainly sounds like renewables are… Read more »
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