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Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another status quo result from Essential Research, as a new entrant in the Australian polling market prepares to take the field.

The latest Essential Research poll, conducted for The Guardian Australia, has two-party preferred steady at 53-47, with both major parties up a point each, to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 37% in Labor’s, and the two biggest minor parties down one, leaving the Greens at 9% and One Nation at 7%. Other findings:

• Compulsory voting has the support of 66% of respondents, which is down five points since the question was last asked in October 2013, with 27% opposed, up two. Eighty per cent say they would have been likely to vote if it were not compulsory, versus 12% for unlikely.

• Economic sentiment has improved since December, with 30% now describing the state of the economy as good (up seven) and 29% as poor (down seven), and 29% thinking it headed in the right direction (up three) against 41% for the wrong direction (down four).

• A question on budget priorities find respondents want spending increased on nearly everything, with the exception of defence, foreign aid and business assistance, with health care, education and age pensions at the top of the chart. Respondents expect the budget will most favour business and the well off, and least favour “older Australians” and “you personally”.

• Contrary to expectations earlier in his career, respondents are confident that Malcolm Turnbull can deliver on “tougher citizenship requirements”, “tighter regulations for foreign workers” and “secure borders”, but not a strong economy, jobs and growth, a balanced budget and, most of all “action on climate change”.

In other polling news, there will shortly be a new entrant into the market in the shape of British market behemoth YouGov:

A new nationally representative political poll launches and goes into the field for the first time this week — a partnership between leading international research and polling firm YouGov and Australian engagement and communications agency Fifty Acres.

YouGov is an international online market research firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Australia …

The poll will be a fortnightly online survey conducted amongst 1,000 Australians aged 18+. The poll sample is nationally representative with quotas based on age, gender and region.

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1698 comments

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don
Guest

lizzie @ #1459 #1459 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 3:46 pm

Simon Aussie Katich
I know of an elderly lady who had a hip replacement and couldn’t sleep, so she used mj cookies and found them an excellent ‘sleeping pill’. I assume with a cookie you can vary the amount you eat – don’t have to scoff a whole plateful!

Indeed. It is not rocket science. Many people know how many beers/wines/scotches to have to tread the fine line between feeling good and feeling rotten. Some do not, of course.

As Henry Lawson said, ‘Beer makes you feel the way you should feel without beer’.

don
Guest

simon aussie katich @ #1456 #1456 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 3:41 pm

Don -**I am just asking on behalf of a friend.**
My friend warned me that eating the stuff causes a slow absorption that whacks you out for ages.

My friend says ‘Isn’t that what we were aiming for?’

bemused
Guest

cud chewer @ #1686 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 11:44 pm

The solar updraft tower seems to have been a victim of increasingly cheaper PV. I would have loved to have seen one built if only for the chance to see the view from the top

Sorry, went to bed before you responded.
But PV can’t provide power 24/7. Solar updraft really captured my imagination when I first read about it.

Whisper
Guest

Scrolling through the overnights posts. It can best be said of P1 is that s/he is a commercial gas producer

don
Guest

CC:

What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers.

Solar thermal with salt batteries has been bothering me too. Why is it not taking off? It would seem that the numbers don’t stack up, for whatever reason.

There was one proposed for Port Augusta:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-04/solar-thermal-power-station-solastor-plan-port-augusta/7476968

but I have not heard that it was anywhere near FID, or even completely designed and costed.

And also the turbines fed by hot air in the middle of a plain somewhere (MIA ?), with a humungous tower. I remember seeing the concept drawings some time ago. Nothing since.

But solar PV seems to keep setting new records for low price and investor uptake.

Wind turbines seem to have a niche market, and may become more important when the costs for daytime electricity come down significantly with five minute pricing and with the peaks being flattened by solar PV, and night time electricity needs being supplied by wind turbines – but around here (northern NSW), the wind usually dies at night anyhow. For that purpose the turbines would need to be somewhere like the south coast of SA where you get sea winds a lot of the time.

Blanket Criticism
Guest

Just in case you still think the Libs wanting to destroy medicare was a scare campaign, this should remove any doubt. Apparently our Prime Minister thinks it’s great that Trump took healthcare coverage off 24 million Americans so he could give a tax cut to the top 2 percent of income earners.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/05/05/11/14/malcolm-turnbull-praises-donald-trump-on-successful-vote-to-repeal-obamacare

Labor should have a sign of every street corner next election simply saying:

Turnball on Trumpcare:

“It’s great!”

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Night all!

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

One for both of you, is Enviro Mission’s solar updraft tower proposal going anywhere?
Another 24/7 alternative that looked good to me.

Nup, not on my radar.
But it does look great!

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers.

Much extra value is in the storage, ramping and and synchronous services it can deliver. More so when most of the rest is power-electronics coupled and variable. Steam turbines are basically commodity produced, so the unknown costs are all in the collector and heat storage and transfer parts. Mass production of mirrors will be considerably cheaper than PV, and the towers should last a lot longer.

On the downside, it relies on infrared radiation, not UV, so is much more susceptible to long periods of cloud cover. Gas backup can overcome this.

Short story – it will almost surely be in the mix. We’ll have one or two here by 2025.

cud chewer
Guest

I think the other thing that Nicholas misses is the makeup of the French Parliament will mitigate the outcome.

Matt
Guest

Nicholas:
“Austerity is a very great evil, and centrists do far more damage to societies than far-right fringe parties.”
Demonstrably untrue. A casual flick through a history book will tell you that civic society goes out the window when the far-right get into power. I’m not downplaying the damage of “austerity now, austerity forever!” types, but let’s be honest here.

cud chewer
Guest

The solar updraft tower seems to have been a victim of increasingly cheaper PV. I would have loved to have seen one built if only for the chance to see the view from the top 🙂

grimace
Guest

player one @ #1661 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:35 pm

cud chewer @ #1660 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:33 pm

Notice how P1 has nothing to say to this.. But P1 is always saying how gas would be economic if only they’d have cheaper gas.

What part of “WA has an oversupply of electricity” did you fail to understand?

The issue of apparent oversupply of electricity in WA is complicated and you should probably avail yourself of the operation of the WA capacity market before you discredit yourself again by involving yourself in matters outside of your area of expertise or general knowledge.

The amount of coal and gas-fired generation capacity decommissioned by Synergy is roughly equal to the installed capacity of rooftop PV on the SWIS.

swamprat
Guest

“Everything’s different after today, folks. Scotland’s choice will never have been more stark: extreme Tories in the UK for years and years to come, or self-governance. Let the chips fall where the people choose.”

https://wingsoverscotland.com/you-can-actually-try-changing-it/

grimace
Guest

player one @ #1666 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:41 pm

grimace @ #1662 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:36 pm

“Even when your state economy is tanking…” – demonstrably untrue

https://www.commsec.com.au/stateofstates – April 2017 report:

Western Australia continues to lag other economies and annual growth rates remain below national averages on all indicators.

The economic performance of Western Australia continues to reflect the ending of the mining construction boom.

Do I need to bother with the rest of your post?

I can imagine you don’t want to bother with my post, its a line by line debunking of your post, and done in a way you can’t cry “I’m being abused!!!!”.

Given the track record of Commsec I’d be very hesitant to take anything at all they said on face value, which is why I quoted WA Treasury.

You’ve gone and posted easily debunked rubbish, backed it up by trying to move the goal posts and now you are trying to use an entity with a track record of fraud and dishonesty who operates within a market segment notorious for doing opinions for hire, and somehow you think that discredits second round of debunking that I did of your post.

So yes P1, please address my post.

bemused
Guest

cud chewer @ #1681 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 11:10 pm

LU,
What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers.

One for both of you, is Enviro Mission’s solar updraft tower proposal going anywhere?
Another 24/7 alternative that looked good to me.

cud chewer
Guest

LU,

What’s your view of solar thermal with molten salt? I used to love this stuff but the problem is that solar PV modules have gotten so cheap that the basic value proposition of a solar thermal plant that mirrors are cheaper isn’t really standing up. Not once you include all the generation side of things. Still a really well designed solar thermal plant with molten salt storage and then gas as a backup source of heat seems to make sense. I just can’t get my head around the numbers.

bemused
Guest

cud chewer @ #1670 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 10:45 pm

Do I need to bother with the rest of your post?

Condescending, arrogant and rude. Typical of a lot of your posts P1.

This is hilarious. P1 is going to have a STFU list including half of PB the way it is going.
I feel a sense of vindication as the first to go on its list after calling it out as a troll and a nasty one at that.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Molten salt is one of the chemicals that can be used in a solar thermal plant.

And a thorium reactor. Slightly different salts, mind you.

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