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French politics

May 8, 2017

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Update

4.00am. The sampled count result is in: Macron 65.1%, Le Pen 34.9%.

3.15am. Actually, what will be published at 4am will be the sampled early count of actual voting, which proved pinpoint accurate last time. Exit polls are coming out now, and have Macron at around 63%.

2.15am. I’m giving this a bump in case anyone’s about who wishes to discuss tonight’s results from France. Exit polls will be out at 4am.

Earlier:

We’re now two days away from the run-off election for the French presidency, and a bit under five weeks away from the general election in Britain. A ban on polling in the final days of French election kicks in around about now, and they suggest that centrist contender Emmanuel Macron’s 60-40 lead over far right candidate Marine Le Pen as of a week ago has widened a little as the big day approaches. The polls were eye-wateringly consistent and accurate ahead of the first round election, and have remained so on the former count at least.

Britain had a dry run with yesterday’s council elections, the results of which poured cold water on any notion that the polls might be as badly astray this time as they were in 2015. In other words, they delivered unprecedented victories for the Conservatives and unmitigated disaster for Labour, as well as reinforcing the impression of a mass exodus from Ukip to the Tories. The poll aggregate below, conducted without any clever-dickery in relation to weighting and bias adjustment, records the Conservatives at 44.8% (compared with 36.9% in 2015), Labour at 28.3% (30.4%), the Liberal Democrats at 10.5% (7.9%) and Ukip at 6.8% (12.6%).

The first chart goes back to the last election, the second to the beginning of March. Among the things the latter makes clearer is that a spike to the Conservatives after the election was announced has in fact levelled off, and that some vaguely encouraging results for Labour a week or so ago haven’t been maintained.

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62 comments

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swamprat
Guest

Neither England nor France, but
A Scottish poll for the UK general election shows the SNP maintaining a 13% lead over the Tories.

SNP. 42%
Con. 29%
Lab. 19%
LibDem. 6%

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com.au/2017/05/snp-vote-increases-in-heartening-full.html

Raaraa
Guest

As they are waiting for absentee votes (which may take up to a week or two), recounts will not be finalised until later in May. We will know then whether there is a majority or minority government. At this time, the L-G has kept Clark as premiere.

Bird of paradox
Guest

British Columbia turned out pretty interesting. 44 for a majority: it’s currently 43 for the Liberals, 41 for the NDP, and 3 for the Greens. The NDP lead by 9 votes in one seat, before absent votes. Whoever wins that seat (Courtenay-Comox, which has been a bellwether since 1986) probably ends up with a one-seat majority (assuming the Greens support the NDP). It doesn’t get much tighter than that.

kakuru
Guest

Kop
“Blair might have won 3 or 4 elections for Labour, ”

Yes, but what has he done for us lately? 😛

Raaraa
Guest

http://www.theage.com.au/world/greatest-stain-in-french-history-helped-emmanuel-macron-prevail-over-demonised-marine-le-pen-20170508-gw039y.html

Emmanuel Macron, the centrist and political novice, won because he was the beneficiary of a uniquely French historic and cultural legacy, where many voters wanted change but were appalled at the type of populist anger that had upturned politics in Britain and the United States. He trounced far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, keeping her well under 40 per cent, even as her aides said before the vote that anything below that figure would be considered a failure.

Peter Jk
Guest

Here are the exit poll results:
Most interesting findings…
1. Le Pen’s supports is strongest amongst those aged 25-50 (between 40-43%) and weakest by far amongst the over 70 (22%)
2. Manual Workers have majority support for Le Pen (56%) whilst amongst “Cadre” which I assume is Managers/ High Level Professionals, only 18%.
3. Of voters who described their political orientation as “Far Left”, the split was 77-23%.

https://www.publicsenat.fr/article/politique/reports-des-voix-age-revenus-la-sociologie-du-vote-au-second-tour-60214

Matt
Guest
From Wikipedia: “On 2 May, the result of Mélenchon’s consultation was published, with 36.12% voting for a blank vote, 34.83% supporting a vote for Macron, and 29.05% opting to abstain;[192] Mélenchon, for his part, issued no voting instructions, only urging his supporters not to make the “terrible error” of voting for Le Pen.[193]” From the source cited by the Wikipedia article (translated): “This result will not lead to a voting instruction, it is said within the movement: “To each of the activists to decide in conscience what he will do”. According to the latest opinion polls Ifop and OpinionWay, Jean-Luc… Read more »
Joe
Guest

@Kop, perhaps your prediction will prove right, but so far Blair has won more years in government for Labour (1997-2010) than they have spent “in the wilderness” (assuming they lose this election, and the next Parliament runs its course, 2010-2022).

Tricot
Guest
Easy to put Labour’s current woes all down to the current leader. Other than the “disaster” that is Corbyn being the song of the day, just what policies would all of Corbyn’s naysayers Labour should adopt? What, Tory Lite maybe? Capture the “centre ground” wherever that may be at the moment? Turn really hard Left? It is clear that Labor heartlands of the old industrial north, Wales and Scotland have abandoned Labour – some to UKIP, a lot in Scotland to the SNP and some, being Alf Garnett conservative types, are doffing their caps to the Tory party. Once the… Read more »
Raaraa
Guest

Joe,

Interesting. I usually think a bare majority is usually avoided as there is a high risk that the state would return to election soon. Perhaps the “Jamaica” coalition is most likely.

Joe
Guest
@Kakuru 74.56% voted, of which 11.47% cast an informal or blank ballot. That means that 66% of registered voters cast a formal vote. Very very low for France. @Raaraa, CDU would definitely prefer the FDP, but the issue is (as you’ve noted) that it’s a seat short. Bringing in either Gruen or SPD doesn’t make a lot of sense, as you might as well go for the more minimalist coalition. (FDP have apparently already said they won’t sit with the SPD.) I think the SSW is seen as fairly left – when it wasn’t clear that Black-Green would get over… Read more »
Kop
Guest

Blair might have won 3 or 4 elections for Labour, but it is my prediction history will judge him harshly and hold him responsible for Labours time in the wilderness.

Raaraa
Guest
Joe, I find it odd that CDU would prefer to side with the Grune over FDP, but they might be limited on options as FDP fell a bit short. It doesn’t sound impossible though for a CDU-FDP-SSW coalition as a CDU-Grune is just barely a majority and might be less stable. Since we are on slightly off-topic elections, tomorrow we see a British Columbia election in Canada where a conservative Liberal incumbent fend off against a centre-left NDP (the Conservatives is minor party here, and the Liberals are further to the right of the Canadian federal party), and a South… Read more »
kakuru
Guest

Heard that French turnout was 74%, the lowest since 1969. I haven’t seen the exact data though.

Joe
Guest

Macron is now at 66.06%. He was at 65.82% without the overseas vote. For reference, the vote in Australia was 89-11%, with 7823 formal votes.

Possibly one of the things that might get lost in the detail is that 11% of those who cast a ballot voted informally.

With regards to Schleswig-Holstein, after a long night, CDU + Greens just made it to a majority. This means that they don’t have to rely on the liberal FDP for their coalition. CDU-Green coalitions are relatively common at the state level.

kakuru
Guest
VE “The media in Britain hate Corbyn. And fair enough, he hates them too. But it means you can’t believe everything they say about him. The fall in Labour’s vote is more about the rise of the SNP and the resurrection of the Lib Dems than it is about Corbyn, his policies, his detractors in the partyroom or their policies.” Two points: (1) I’m not paying much heed to what the media says about Corbyn. I’m only looking at the polls. For UK Labour, the polls are dire. (2) Saying the fall in Labour’s vote has little to do with… Read more »
Voice Endeavour
Guest
@ Kakuru – Labour’s reduced polling percentage is purely to do with the Lib Dems not being as completely terrible this election as last. Labour does not need to gain seats, all they need to do is make sure that the Tories lose seats, because every other party in UK politics (bar UKIP, who is expected to lose their only seat) will not enter into a coalition with the hard Brexiting Tories. The parties that would vote confidence in May have lose 7.7% of the vote since last election, if the BBC is correct. They have likely gained 3 seats… Read more »
kakuru
Guest

I want UK Labour to win. Failing that, I want them to gain seats. Currently, the former looks nigh impossible, and the latter unlikely. Labour’s poor showing might have something to do with Corbyn.

kakuru
Guest

VE
My feelings are based on the data. I have no personal dislike for Corbyn. I assess him as a dud based on his poor standing across the UK.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

@ Kakaru

Please reconcile the closeness of the result, if the local council elections are to be used as a guide (Tories currently on 334 seats with 325 needed for government, and having no natural coalition partners) with lack of closeness implied by the statement below.

“Corbyn becoming PM may well be “not beyond the bounds of possibility”, if by that you mean “not statistically impossible”. Let it go. Corbyn is toast.”

You are massively overreaching, because of your personal dislike for Corbyn. pay attention to the data, not your feelings.

Socrates
Guest

This is quite a good NY Times article that includes final results and the geographic and social distribution of Macron and Le Pen voters. The pattern is fairly clear.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

kakuru
Guest

VE
I see “Labor loses 20, down to 212.” Don’t know how accurate your projection is, but this is not a great result for the major Opposition party.
I also recall this ‘take’ on the council elections, written by one William Bowe: “In other words, they delivered unprecedented victories for the Conservatives and unmitigated disaster for Labour”.
I fail to see why the general election will be anything other than another unmitigated disaster for Labour.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

@ Kakuru – care to address my above post. Are you disagreeing with:

* The BBC’s analysis of likely General Election percentages by party.

* The applicability of using local council election data as an indicator of general election results.

* My analysis on how the percentages will transfer to seats.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

@ Ctar1 – I’m not sure what you mean.

Likely (as there were no Irish councils and thus no Irish data), they actually mean Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), rather than the United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

It is very unlikely that those numbers were talking about England. 12% ‘others’ in England would be ridiculous. Others in England are polling around 4-7%, and got 5.1% last election. By contrast, others are polling above 50% in Scotland and around 15% in Wales due to the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru.

kakuru
Guest

Ajm
“There would be a superabundance of egg on very many faces.”

Starting with mine. Happily, I’m confident my face will remain egg-free. Corbyn is tanking, and he’s taking UK Labour down with him.
Corbyn becoming PM may well be “not beyond the bounds of possibility”, if by that you mean “not statistically impossible”.
Let it go. Corbyn is toast. UK Labour might have a chance at the election-after-next, if Brexit sinks the UK economy and/or Labour chooses a leader who is actually electable.

Socrates
Guest

Donald Trump has finally told the truth about the “Big election win”.
“Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
Congratulations to Emmanuel Macron on his big win today as the next President of France. I look very much forward to working with him!
4:52 AM – 8 May 2017”

Too bad it wasn’t his 🙂

CTar1
Guest

VE

“As elections were not held throughout the country, the BBC calculated a Projected National Vote Share (PNV), which aims to assess what the council results indicate the UK-wide vote would be “if the results were repeated at a general election”. The BBC’s preliminary Projected National Vote Share was 38% for the Conservatives, 27% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 5% for UKIP, with others on around 12%.

England wide vote?

Bonza
Guest

GBP currently at around AU$1.75, after being around $1.60 prior to the election being called. Come on $1.80!

ajm
Guest
Voice Endeavour @ #25 Monday, May 8th, 2017 – 10:21 am This election is not over yet, if the local council elections are any guide. The Conservatives are projected to have a majority of 9 in a 650 house and no real options for a coalition. A small swing away from the Tories in the next month could see them lose their majority, and likely government. VE It will be fascinating if there is a further swing against the Tories (plenty of time for it to happen) and Corbyn puts together a coalition government and becomes Prime Minister – certainly… Read more »
booleanbach
Guest

Macron now has to hope that the assembly elections in a month or so will provide a majority that support his agenda. Otherwise he will be in a bind.

Raaraa
Guest

I suspect the majority of Melenchon voters there were former PS voters who couldn’t get themselves to vote for Hamon. Not sure if it is Hamon unconvincing or Hollande to blame.

kakuru
Guest

“More of Melenchon voters went for Macron over than of Fillon voters.”

Yes, I found that a bit surprising.

Raaraa
Guest

I think the disdain for the left is unfortunate there. More of Melenchon voters went for Macron over than of Fillon voters.

kakuru
Guest

Interesting infograph – it also shows that a (slight) majority of Melenchon voters ended up voting for Macron. A sliver of Melenchon voters went for Le Pen (these would be the rabid anti-establishment/Frexit types), and the rest stayed home and sulked.

Raaraa
Guest

Kakuru

Not a biggest fan of either now (though still preferred over any conservative). Just stating the news though.

Raaraa
Guest

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/861346889932963846/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-europe-39823865

An interesting infograph showing where votes from the first round candidate ended up in the second round. Majority of eliminated candidate voters gave their vote to Macron, and those that didn’t, most abstained rather than vote for Le Pen.

However, I can’t understand the really tiny portion that went from Macron to Le Pen.

kakuru
Guest

Raaraa
” Tony Blair less popular than Corbyn I mean to say!”

Blair might be unpopular NOW. But Blair won three general elections – including two landslides.
Bu contrast, it’s looking increasingly likely that Corbyn will take his party backwards – not something a party leader would want to be remembered for.

Voice Endeavour
Guest
“As elections were not held throughout the country, the BBC calculated a Projected National Vote Share (PNV), which aims to assess what the council results indicate the UK-wide vote would be “if the results were repeated at a general election”. The BBC’s preliminary Projected National Vote Share was 38% for the Conservatives, 27% for Labour, 18% for the Liberal Democrats and 5% for UKIP, with others on around 12%.[21]” This compares with previous election of 37.8% for the Conservatives, 31.2% for Labour, 12.9% for Ukip, 8.1% for Lib Dem and others at 10%. The local council election results are quite… Read more »
Raaraa
Guest

kakuru @ #22 Monday, May 8, 2017 at 10:13 am

Raaraa
“Tony Blair seems to be even more popular than Jeremy Corbyn, polling finds.”
Bubonic plague seems to be even more popular than Jeremy Corbyn.
The one saving grace of the UK election is that Corbyn will finally be put out of his misery.

Actually thanks for highlighting that, and I wish I can edit my earlier comment! I have accidentally completely misquoted that article due to a typo. Tony Blair less popular than Corbyn I mean to say!

Raaraa
Guest

Thanks. I think perhaps people are starting to see through the bullshit and is angry at the meddling by foreign agents, both by the leaks and the bots planting fake news on social media.

kakuru
Guest

Raaraa
“Tony Blair seems to be even more popular than Jeremy Corbyn, polling finds.”

Bubonic plague seems to be even more popular than Jeremy Corbyn.

The one saving grace of the UK election is that Corbyn will finally be put out of his misery.

ItzaDream
Guest
1989, Place de la Concorde, where heads rolled 2oo years before. Afro-American Jessye Norman (Augusta, Georgia 1945) sings the Marseillaise at the bicentennial. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3vGVR770WE (Side story – the late of the head of the Department in which I worked was married to a woman of Australian French descent. The French came to bypass the British wool buyers and source their wool directly. One July 4, I arrived for dinner with a bunch of red white and blue flowers tied in red white and blue ribbons. She was gracious, but took pains to point to the Fleur-de-lis brooch on her left… Read more »
CTar1
Guest

Angelique Chrisafis ✔ @achrisafis
Poll finds only 39% of French people want Macron to win a parliamentary majority. https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/861289098560098305
5:27 AM – 8 May 2017

CTar1
Guest

Imacca

Good result that Le Pen got buried.

Yep. But I have limited confidence that Macron will achieve much.

imacca
Guest

[ Some analysis of Twitter traffic I saw suggests the release of the e-mail may actually helped Macron. ]

Would not surprise me. The only info out there so far seems to be that it happened, nothing much about content.
Good result that Le Pen got buried.

CTar1
Guest

Raaraa / Soc

Some analysis of Twitter traffic I saw suggests the release of the e-mail may actually helped Macron.

Totally separate question – who did the decrease in turn out help?

Socrates
Guest

Raaraa
No but the last polls and actual result moved towards Macron. So not reporting the Wiki-Gate other than to say (correctly) that Macron had been hacked by Russia, may have worked in his favour. A week ago it was 60/40, then it moved to 62/48 in the last poll before WikiGate, and it then reached 65/35 on the day. Given that these polls seem to have been fairly accurate, I find that encouraging.

Raaraa
Guest

I wasn’t sure what sort of impact the news of the email leaks would have on Macron, but we might never know because France had a 48 hours blackout period and this news was leaked within that period.

Raaraa
Guest
Socrates
Guest
Vive la France! With the polls closed and Macron at 65/35, it is interesting that the result is actually better than the 60/40 most polls were predicting a week ago. This suggests that the late hacking attack and email dump had no significant effect, other than possibly some suppression effect on voter turnout. Though with leftists like Melanchonn calling on leftist voters to stay away there are other possible explanations of the turnout. Either way, what a difference it makes when a responsible media and election authority refuses to publish dubious material and cautions people against it, rather than stoking… Read more »
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