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French politics

May 8, 2017

Update

4.00am. The sampled count result is in: Macron 65.1%, Le Pen 34.9%.

3.15am. Actually, what will be published at 4am will be the sampled early count of actual voting, which proved pinpoint accurate last time. Exit polls are coming out now, and have Macron at around 63%.

2.15am. I’m giving this a bump in case anyone’s about who wishes to discuss tonight’s results from France. Exit polls will be out at 4am.

Earlier:

We’re now two days away from the run-off election for the French presidency, and a bit under five weeks away from the general election in Britain. A ban on polling in the final days of French election kicks in around about now, and they suggest that centrist contender Emmanuel Macron’s 60-40 lead over far right candidate Marine Le Pen as of a week ago has widened a little as the big day approaches. The polls were eye-wateringly consistent and accurate ahead of the first round election, and have remained so on the former count at least.

Britain had a dry run with yesterday’s council elections, the results of which poured cold water on any notion that the polls might be as badly astray this time as they were in 2015. In other words, they delivered unprecedented victories for the Conservatives and unmitigated disaster for Labour, as well as reinforcing the impression of a mass exodus from Ukip to the Tories. The poll aggregate below, conducted without any clever-dickery in relation to weighting and bias adjustment, records the Conservatives at 44.8% (compared with 36.9% in 2015), Labour at 28.3% (30.4%), the Liberal Democrats at 10.5% (7.9%) and Ukip at 6.8% (12.6%).

The first chart goes back to the last election, the second to the beginning of March. Among the things the latter makes clearer is that a spike to the Conservatives after the election was announced has in fact levelled off, and that some vaguely encouraging results for Labour a week or so ago haven’t been maintained.

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62 comments

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swamprat
Guest

Neither England nor France, but
A Scottish poll for the UK general election shows the SNP maintaining a 13% lead over the Tories.

SNP. 42%
Con. 29%
Lab. 19%
LibDem. 6%

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com.au/2017/05/snp-vote-increases-in-heartening-full.html

Raaraa
Guest

As they are waiting for absentee votes (which may take up to a week or two), recounts will not be finalised until later in May. We will know then whether there is a majority or minority government. At this time, the L-G has kept Clark as premiere.

Bird of paradox
Guest

British Columbia turned out pretty interesting. 44 for a majority: it’s currently 43 for the Liberals, 41 for the NDP, and 3 for the Greens. The NDP lead by 9 votes in one seat, before absent votes. Whoever wins that seat (Courtenay-Comox, which has been a bellwether since 1986) probably ends up with a one-seat majority (assuming the Greens support the NDP). It doesn’t get much tighter than that.

kakuru
Guest

Kop
“Blair might have won 3 or 4 elections for Labour, ”

Yes, but what has he done for us lately? ūüėõ

Raaraa
Guest

http://www.theage.com.au/world/greatest-stain-in-french-history-helped-emmanuel-macron-prevail-over-demonised-marine-le-pen-20170508-gw039y.html

Emmanuel Macron, the centrist and political novice, won because he was the beneficiary of a uniquely French historic and cultural legacy, where many voters wanted change but were appalled at the type of populist anger that had upturned politics in Britain and the United States. He trounced far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, keeping her well under 40 per cent, even as her aides said before the vote that anything below that figure would be considered a failure.

Peter Jk
Guest

Here are the exit poll results:
Most interesting findings…
1. Le Pen’s supports is strongest amongst those aged 25-50 (between 40-43%) and weakest by far amongst the over 70 (22%)
2. Manual Workers have majority support for Le Pen (56%) whilst amongst “Cadre” which I assume is Managers/ High Level Professionals, only 18%.
3. Of voters who described their political orientation as “Far Left”, the split was 77-23%.

https://www.publicsenat.fr/article/politique/reports-des-voix-age-revenus-la-sociologie-du-vote-au-second-tour-60214

Matt
Guest

From Wikipedia:
“On 2 May, the result of M√©lenchon’s consultation was published, with 36.12% voting for a blank vote, 34.83% supporting a vote for Macron, and 29.05% opting to abstain;[192] M√©lenchon, for his part, issued no voting instructions, only urging his supporters not to make the “terrible error” of voting for Le Pen.[193]”
From the source cited by the Wikipedia article (translated):
“This result will not lead to a voting instruction, it is said within the movement: “To each of the activists to decide in conscience what he will do”. According to the latest opinion polls Ifop and OpinionWay, Jean-Luc M√©lenchon’s voters were more likely to vote Emmanuel Macron than to vote white (i.e., abstain).¬†
On the evening of the first round, on April 23, Jean-Luc M√©lenchon had not given a voting instruction, which had earned him many criticisms within the political class. He subsequently warned of the “terrible mistake” of a vote in favor of Marine Le Pen.”
http://www.leparisien.fr/elections/presidentielle/presidentielle-les-insoumis-de-melenchon-choisissent-de-voter-blanc-a-36-02-05-2017-6909717.php
Melenchon didn’t instruct his supporters to abstain; he declined to instruct them in any direction EXCEPT to refuse to countenance a vote for Le Pen.

Joe
Guest

@Kop, perhaps your prediction will prove right, but so far Blair has won more years in government for Labour (1997-2010) than they have spent “in the wilderness” (assuming they lose this election, and the next Parliament runs its course, 2010-2022).

Tricot
Guest

Easy to put Labour’s current woes all down to the current leader.
Other than the “disaster” that is Corbyn being the song of the day, just what policies would all of Corbyn’s naysayers Labour should adopt? What, Tory Lite maybe? Capture the “centre ground” wherever that may be at the moment? Turn really hard Left? It is clear that Labor heartlands of the old industrial north, Wales and Scotland have abandoned Labour – some to UKIP, a lot in Scotland to the SNP and some, being Alf Garnett conservative types, are doffing their caps to the Tory party.
Once the Conservatives finally destroy what is left of the NHS and make cuts to other government services then these ‘new’ Conservatives might just see how much of mistake they have made. Mind you, having travelled back on a plane from Spain not so long ago with a self-professed “Labour voter” from the North of England who wanted all foreigners sent home, I guess Mrs May will get this ‘Labour voters’ vote regardless.

Raaraa
Guest

Joe,

Interesting. I usually think a bare majority is usually avoided as there is a high risk that the state would return to election soon. Perhaps the “Jamaica” coalition is most likely.

Joe
Guest

@Kakuru 74.56% voted, of which 11.47% cast an informal or blank ballot. That means that 66% of registered voters cast a formal vote. Very very low for France.

@Raaraa, CDU would definitely prefer the FDP, but the issue is (as you’ve noted) that it’s a seat short. Bringing in either Gruen or SPD doesn’t make a lot of sense, as you might as well go for the more minimalist coalition. (FDP have apparently already said they won’t sit with the SPD.) I think the SSW is seen as fairly left – when it wasn’t clear that Black-Green would get over the line, Jamaica (CDU-Gruen-FDP) was discussed as most likely, rather than CDU-FDP-SSW. So the natural options I would think are either a grand coalition or Black-Green.

My understanding is that bare-majority coalitions are generally not considered problematic in Germany. Interestingly though, a bare-majority coalition fell short in Schleswig-Holstein a few years ago as one of its members kept voting against it (in secret ballots).

Kop
Guest

Blair might have won 3 or 4 elections for Labour, but it is my prediction history will judge him harshly and hold him responsible for Labours time in the wilderness.

Raaraa
Guest

Joe,

I find it odd that CDU would prefer to side with the Grune over FDP, but they might be limited on options as FDP fell a bit short.

It doesn’t sound impossible though for a CDU-FDP-SSW coalition as a CDU-Grune is just barely a majority and might be less stable.

Since we are on slightly off-topic elections, tomorrow we see a British Columbia election in Canada where a conservative Liberal incumbent fend off against a centre-left NDP (the Conservatives is minor party here, and the Liberals are further to the right of the Canadian federal party), and a South Korean presidential election, where the previous president was impeached due to a political scandal.

kakuru
Guest

Heard that French turnout was 74%, the lowest since 1969. I haven’t seen the exact data though.

Joe
Guest

Macron is now at 66.06%. He was at 65.82% without the overseas vote. For reference, the vote in Australia was 89-11%, with 7823 formal votes.

Possibly one of the things that might get lost in the detail is that 11% of those who cast a ballot voted informally.

With regards to Schleswig-Holstein, after a long night, CDU + Greens just made it to a majority. This means that they don’t have to rely on the liberal FDP for their coalition. CDU-Green coalitions are relatively common at the state level.

kakuru
Guest

VE
“The media in Britain hate Corbyn. And fair enough, he hates them too. But it means you can‚Äôt believe everything they say about him. The fall in Labour‚Äôs vote is more about the rise of the SNP and the resurrection of the Lib Dems than it is about Corbyn, his policies, his detractors in the partyroom or their policies.”

Two points:
(1) I’m not paying much heed to what the media says about Corbyn. I’m only looking at the polls. For UK Labour, the polls are dire.
(2) Saying the fall in Labour’s vote has little to do with Corbyn comes across to me as special pleading. Why are the SNP, Lib Dems etc gaining at Labour’s expense, and why isn’t Labour gaining at the Tories expense? You seem to be conflating cause and effect.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

@ Kakuru – Labour’s reduced polling percentage is purely to do with the Lib Dems not being as completely terrible this election as last. Labour does not need to gain seats, all they need to do is make sure that the Tories lose seats, because every other party in UK politics (bar UKIP, who is expected to lose their only seat) will not enter into a coalition with the hard Brexiting Tories.

The parties that would vote confidence in May have lose 7.7% of the vote since last election, if the BBC is correct. They have likely gained 3 seats due to first past the post idiocy.

Think about it this way. UKIP has lost 7.9%. Most of those voters would have gone to the Tories. So why are the Tories only up 0.2%? Is there 7.7% of the population who voted Tory last election but are now voting Lib Dem/Labour? What happens now, if Tories continue to abandon the party for the Lib Dems and Labour? There really aren’t that many UKIPers left to make up for further losses of voters.

First past the post can lead to many odd things happening. Soft/No brexit parties command 57% of the vote. At the moment it appears they would be tripped up by FPTP, but saying things like “Corbyn is toast” are overreach.

The media in Britain hate Corbyn. And fair enough, he hates them too. But it means you can’t believe everything they say about him. The fall in Labour’s vote is more about the rise of the SNP and the resurrection of the Lib Dems than it is about Corbyn, his policies, his detractors in the partyroom or their policies.

kakuru
Guest

I want UK Labour to win. Failing that, I want them to gain seats. Currently, the former looks nigh impossible, and the latter unlikely. Labour’s poor showing might have something to do with Corbyn.

kakuru
Guest

VE
My feelings are based on the data. I have no personal dislike for Corbyn. I assess him as a dud based on his poor standing across the UK.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

@ Kakaru

Please reconcile the closeness of the result, if the local council elections are to be used as a guide (Tories currently on 334 seats with 325 needed for government, and having no natural coalition partners) with lack of closeness implied by the statement below.

“Corbyn becoming PM may well be ‚Äúnot beyond the bounds of possibility‚ÄĚ, if by that you mean ‚Äúnot statistically impossible‚ÄĚ. Let it go. Corbyn is toast.”

You are massively overreaching, because of your personal dislike for Corbyn. pay attention to the data, not your feelings.

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