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ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

Disappointing results for the government from the first two voting intention measures after the budget, despite strong support for the bank and Medicare levies.

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Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).

UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.

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1058 comments

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1,058 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

  1. Rex Douglas

    Reachtel delivers a budget flop for Malcolm.

    What a humiliation for the conservative rump this week has been. Spectacularly repudiated by the people and the parliament and returned to their swamp with tails between their legs.

  2. Barney in Go Dau

    William,
    What was the previous ReachTEL result?

  3. cupidstunt

    GOODBYE TURNBULL.

  4. cupidstunt

    So the Libs were jumping around with a spring in their step according to the pratts on Sky yesterday.Not anymore after that result.

  5. bemused

    cupidstunt @ #3 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    GOODBYE TURNBULL.

    My forecast was within 2 weeks of the budget. Looking good.

  6. William Bowe

    William,
    What was the previous ReachTEL result?

    This is their first poll since the election. ReachTEL came up with a 50-50 result during the WA campaign, so I’d hesitate to take this to the bank, so to speak.

  7. cupidstunt

    The MSM/Sky cheer squad are becoming more and more irrelevant.They are trying their bollocks off to get people to vote for Turnbull and its not working.

  8. Fulvio Sammut

    Last Reachtel result federally I could find was 3 June 2016 which was 50 – 50.

  9. cupidstunt

    Doesnt matter if its a rogue poll.The MSM and Sky will make a big deal of it.

  10. JimmyDoyle

    Isn’t it a bit too soon after the budget to read much into this poll? Either that or people have simply stopped listening.

  11. Greg McAuliffe

    I would wait for Newspoll to come out next week ( I,m assuming ), before jumping to any conclusions about the reception of the budget by the masses.
    On the bank levy,what the govt should of done is frozen all fees and charges increases for 3 years, and then imposed the levy to stop the bastards from passing it on.

  12. C@tmomma

    Labor still ahead, but I agree with Katherine Murphy about this which could put them more ahead than they are:

    Shorten’s budget reply speech was too much in the mode of hectoring with a loud hailer on the back of a flatbed truck – he has an affectation with his delivery which makes him sound performative and staged rather than real – but the speech was relentlessly on message, goading Turnbull to bring Labor a fight on fairness.

    Get Real, Bill! Learn how to fake it like you mean it! It’s not Rocket Science! 🙂

  13. zoomster

    The Menzies House analysis (cough) of the Liberals’ gender problem is interesting as an pointer to the problems the Liberals have confronting issues across the board.

    1. Lack of real consultation.

    Basically, if you want to work out why women aren’t voting for or joining your party (and if you don’t have sufficient numbers of women in the party to begin with, you are going to find it very hard to find suitable candidates full stop), then you need to talk to women who aren’t voting for or joining your party.

    You also need to talk to women who have made preselection bids and failed.

    Instead, the authors talked exclusively to ‘success stories’ – women who made it regardless.

    Anyone who has succeeded within a system sees themselves as having done so by merit, and therefore tends to make the judgment that success in the system is possible, if you’re good enough. They’re not the ones who are going to point out the problems which need to be overcome.

    So the Liberals have no idea about who to consult about issues and how to do it.

    2. Refusal to admit there is anything wrong with the party.

    The reasoning appears to be: the Liberal party platform is strong on equality. Therefore all Liberals are strong on equality. Therefore all decisions made are made through the prism of equality, therefore sexism isn’t a problem and if women aren’t being preselected, it’s because they don’t measure up.

    The report acknowledges a decline in the women vote since 2001. It acknowledges a huge disparity (close to 70/30) between men joining the party and women joining the party. It suggests that one of the reasons women might no longer vote Liberal is that they’re better educated.

    But does it consider, for one fleeting second, that these all might be indicators that there is a problem with the party itself? Nupe. Not on your nelly.

    3. Under no circumstances can you ever admit Labor might have got something right.

    Yes, Labor has more women running for winnable seats. What of it? The result is Julia Gillard, she was a failure, therefore quotas are rubbish.

    The report bends over backwards to explain how targets are different from quotas. It doesn’t explain why, if party members are voting for candidates on merit and they’re not voting for women, setting a target is suddenly going to have meritorious women magically appear.

    …long may the Liberals cling stubbornly to these beliefs. The day when they realise that consultation means talking to more than a few of your mates around the table, reinforcing your prejudices and that the party needs to have a long hard look at why it is failing to attract women to join it, let alone vote for it, is the day when they will start rebuilding.

  14. JimmyDoyle

    Bemused (from previous thread) – it requires a coordinated strategy from federal, state and/or local governments to make battery recycling easier. People are pretty good about recycling, as long as you don’t make it an ordeal.

  15. C@tmomma

    I also loved this bitch slap at Sky from Murphy:

    The sloganeering, the ideological posturing, and the manifestations of bizarre reactionary right-wing victimhood, might please the after dark ranters and monologue merchants on Sky News, creating a toxic feedback loop in conservative circles – but no-one else cares.

  16. ratsak

    Yeah certainly too early to make any real calls etc etc, but the effect on morale in the Libs won’t be good.

    They know this was the last chance to get back in the game. A 53-47 first up won’t be making those on the hard right especially thinking that they need to suck up the repudiation of their agenda for the sake of saving Trumble.

    Problem for the Libs also is that a <35 ALP primary is undercooked.

  17. Ides of March

    JD from previous thread.

    Elizabeth Farrelly either turns people on or off. Very few people are neutral on her. I read her because she is the only person in the MSM that constantly talks town planning/architecture/urban design etc. Not that I always agree with her.

  18. Rex Douglas

    cupidstunt @ #7 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    The MSM/Sky cheer squad are becoming more and more irrelevant.They are trying their bollocks off to get people to vote for Turnbull and its not working.

    I’ve been following Sky this week and the budget has drawn widespread negative criticism and ridicule from the likes of Keneally to PvO to Paul Murray. The ABC has been far more favorable to Malcolm’s budget than Sky.

  19. cupidstunt

    I think the Monkeypod are keeping quiet until they saw the first polls.They will soon come out of their cages.

  20. cupidstunt

    I saw part of Murray last night and he absolutely condemned Shorten over the medicare levy.They would never support Labor in a million years.

  21. JimmyDoyle

    Ides of March
    I read her because she is the only person in the MSM that constantly talks town planning/architecture/urban design etc

    That is true. I’ll give Farrelly credit for that.

    Maybe she’s just no good at writing about politics, but then, neither is anyone in the Press Gallery. Except Lenore Taylor and maybe Katherine Murphy.

  22. Greg McAuliffe

    Murdoch (news ltd ) wants Abbott as PM again.Turnbull isn’t too right wing enough for him. lol

  23. phoenixRED

    C@tmomma
    Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:23 pm

    Get Real, Bill! Learn how to fake it like you mean it! It’s not Rocket Science!

    ****************************************************

    Groucho Marx – ‘Sincerity is the key to success. Once you can fake that you’ve got it made

  24. Fulvio Sammut

    I agree with Rex that the national ABC reports that I have seen have all been full on Liberal cheer squad material.
    WA state programs not so much.

  25. Rex Douglas

    jimmydoyle @ #21 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:33 pm

    Ides of March
    I read her because she is the only person in the MSM that constantly talks town planning/architecture/urban design etc

    That is true. I’ll give Farrelly credit for that.
    Maybe she’s just no good at writing about politics, but then, neither is anyone in the Press Gallery. Except Lenore Taylor and maybe Katherine Murphy.

    Greg Jericho is the only political economics journo worth reading.

  26. Barney in Go Dau

    zoomster @ #13 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:25 pm

    The Menzies House analysis (cough) of the Liberals’ gender problem is interesting as an pointer to the problems the Liberals have confronting issues across the board.
    …long may the Liberals cling stubbornly to these beliefs. The day when they realise that consultation means talking to more than a few of your mates around the table, reinforcing your prejudices and that the party needs to have a long hard look at why it is failing to attract women to join it, let alone vote for it, is the day when they will start rebuilding.

    Thanks Zoom,
    To fix a problem first you must recognise you have a problem.

    Long may they remain blissfully ignorant. 🙂

  27. C@tmomma

    The ABC has been far more favorable to Malcolm’s budget than Sky.

    Cue, Barrie Cassidy:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-12/cassidy:-budget-reveals-a-seismic-shift-in/8521252

  28. Rex Douglas

    greg mcauliffe @ #22 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:34 pm

    Murdoch (news ltd ) wants Abbott as PM again.Turnbull isn’t too right wing enough for him. lol

    I think even Rupert would concede the Abbott era is over now.

    Tipping Murdoch will usher in a fresh group of conservative shills while escorting the old guard out with editorial skill into retirement.

  29. Dan Gulberry

    bemused @ #5 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    My forecast was within 2 weeks of the budget. Looking good.

    Actually, you predicted “up to 4 weeks after budget 2017”. So your post as quoted is not right, but not really wrong either. (insert winky emoji here)

    Sounds like a good time to update the state of play in the PB Libspill III sweepstakes.

    Those still in the race (ie haven’t been eliminated) are as follows:

    Airlines – post-budget 2017
    Steve777 – June 2017
    Edward Boyce – June 2017
    BK – mid June 2017
    Bemused – up to 4 weeks after budget 2017
    Puff – Mid 2017 (or pre Xmas)
    Albo – 12 months time (September 2017)
    Moksha – 5/9/17 – 11/9/17
    Nicole – September 2017
    Rex Douglas – Xmas 2017
    Booleanbach – after 30 consecutive bad polls
    C@t – after 30 Newspolls
    cupidstunt – 3 months before election
    Frednk – April 13 2019
    Chinda63 – after the next election/Turnbull resignation

  30. zoomster

    …and the bar the Liberals set for female candidates is pretty daunting – you have to be better qualified than Julia Gillard to get there on merit.

    It horrifies me to think how much the Labor party is being held back by preselecting (let alone giving Ministries to) dud women at the expense of far more meritorious men. Rex is right – we should be on 60/40, and obviously the path forward is reduce our female representation in parliament…

  31. phoenixRED

    Citizen Journalists, and media that can’t keep up :

    The crisis of Donald Trump’s collusion with the Russian Federation has given rise to a new term online: citizen journalists. This new “job title” has emerged because, frankly, the major media outlets upon which we depend have failed to keep up with the sheer torrent of new, alarming updates on the perversion of American governance.

    Enter the citizen journalists :

    Into this void stepped the so-called citizen journalists. Armed with specialized skills from their careers and alarmed for the future of their country, a new group of voices have emerged

    In a few short months, people like Dr. Sarah Kendzior, Andrea Chalupa, John Schindler, Louise Mensch, Claude Taylor, and many others have attracted hundreds of thousands of followers as citizens search for some sense of just what the hell might be going on in the surreal nightmare of Trump’s administration. Drawing from their own deep professional experiences, they and others have transcended the bounds of traditional journalism and shown the public just where this awful story was headed – and why to keep hope alive.

    http://www.ericgarland.co/2017/05/11/game-theory-citizen-journalists-media/

  32. Aqualung

    Grimace re tax deductibility of taxes/levies. Thanks for the response.
    Not going to pretend I understand why taxes are tax deductible but if they are then so be it.

  33. Aqualung

    When I had fttp installed I took the battery backup option. My understanding was that it was if my property experienced a blackout and presumably the fibre was still active. It’s supposed to last about 4 hours. Most blackouts don’t last that long but that could easily change if storm intensities increase as appears to be occurring.

  34. Ides of March

    JD

    Greg Jericho is good.
    As in The Kouk.
    Ross Gittins as well.
    I dont mind Peter Martin or Jessica Irvine.
    Not straight economics and more businessy but Alan Kholer and Ian Verrender are decent.

  35. C@tmomma

    Shorter Zoomster on Menzies Research Centre Report:

    = Liberal Confirmation Bias

  36. Voice Endeavour

    Stick a fork in him, he’s done!

    Have you heard that line used before? Because I haven’t heard it. I mean, I just – I came up with it and I thought it was good.

  37. guytaur

    Good poll result for getting a Labor government. Obviously trying to be fair light did not work.

    The good things for LNP mean the poll would have been lower for them otherwise.

    Ithink its a party divided cannot rule the country syndrome.

    Despite media virtually ignoring it the LNP is wY more divided than Labor was in the RGR years. At least Labor held itself together right up until the end.

    With the LNP thats not the case. We have had Bernadi start his own party. We have Xenophon and Hanson as alternatives for both moderates and hard right.

    Given the Galaxy result out of Queensland and polling showing Dutton and Porter are in danger of losing and the continued Essential results I doubt this is a rogue poll.

  38. phoenixRED

    Timeline: Trump’s words contradict White House answers on Comey firing

    The White House can’t get its story straight on why President Donald Trump fired FBI Director James Comey.

    Trump told NBC News on Thursday that he was going to fire Comey with or without Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s memo criticizing the director.

    That statement contradicts at least 10 times Trump’s top aides and advisers, including Vice President Mike Pence, tried to explain the how and the why the President decided to sack Comey.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/11/politics/trump-comey-white-house-contradictions/index.html

  39. jenauthor

    William, Speers said the poll was a large sample over 1500, I think.

  40. Aqualung

    Nice. No bounce.
    Voice Endeavor. Seem to recall PJK using that term somewhere in the dim and distant past. Perhaps in reference to Hewson.

  41. phoenixRED

    Voice Endeavour Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:58 pm
    Stick a fork in him, he’s done!
    Have you heard that line used before? Because I haven’t heard it. I mean, I just – I came up with it and I thought it was good.

    **********************************************
    This sounds exactly like Trumps ‘prime the pump” bullshit

    Trump says he made up a popular phrase that’s been around since the 1800s

    In yet another outlandish transcript of a Donald Trump interview, the president made yet another outlandish claim.

    When discussing his tax plan, Trump uses the phrase, ‘prime the pump’ then proceeds to ask the interviewer whether they had heard the phrase before. Even though the interview says yes they had heard this known phrase, Trump continues to take credit for coining it.

    And Trump can’t lie about word usage without having the internet’s friendly and feisty dictionary stepping in to give a correction. Merriam-Webster’s ever-vigilant Twitter account calmly explained in a series of tweets that the phrase comes from the 1800s.

    http://mashable.com/2017/05/11/trump-interview-prime-the-pump/#_sIfPC9dBiqu

  42. Socrates

    Nice poll Malcolm! Don’t worry, the Liberals are a forgiving lot.
    Regarding Shorten’s reply speech, I missed it at the time, and was trying to catch up with what he said. I could not find it on the ABC news website. Does anyone have a link to it. The ABC are not making it easy to find.

  43. zoomster

    VE

    You know words, you have all the best words.

  44. zoomster

    http://byzantium1200.com/

    ‘ Welcome to Byzantium 1200. Byzantium 1200 is a project aimed at creating computer reconstructions of the Byzantine Monuments located in Istanbul, TURKEY as of year 1200 AD.’

  45. Voice Endeavour

    Getting bigly complimented by Zoomster – yuge.

  46. Desert Qlder

    There was a complete loss of signal in Central Australia across all ABC formats for the duration of the BIR and subsequent 730. “Technical difficulties” apparently.

  47. Greensborough Growler

    phoenixRED @ #42 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:04 pm

    Voice Endeavour Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:58 pm
    Stick a fork in him, he’s done!
    Have you heard that line used before? Because I haven’t heard it. I mean, I just – I came up with it and I thought it was good.

    **********************************************
    This sounds exactly like Trumps ‘prime the pump” bullshit

    Trump says he made up a popular phrase that’s been around since the 1800s

    In yet another outlandish transcript of a Donald Trump interview, the president made yet another outlandish claim.

    When discussing his tax plan, Trump uses the phrase, ‘prime the pump’ then proceeds to ask the interviewer whether they had heard the phrase before. Even though the interview says yes they had heard this known phrase, Trump continues to take credit for coining it.

    And Trump can’t lie about word usage without having the internet’s friendly and feisty dictionary stepping in to give a correction. Merriam-Webster’s ever-vigilant Twitter account calmly explained in a series of tweets that the phrase comes from the 1800s.

    http://mashable.com/2017/05/11/trump-interview-prime-the-pump/#_sIfPC9dBiqu

    How long before we learn he invented the internet too?

  48. Rex Douglas

    socrates @ #43 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:04 pm

    Nice poll Malcolm! Don’t worry, the Liberals are a forgiving lot.
    Regarding Shorten’s reply speech, I missed it at the time, and was trying to catch up with what he said. I could not find it on the ABC news website. Does anyone have a link to it. The ABC are not making it easy to find.

    You didn’t miss much. Over-acting and disingenuous.

  49. Greensborough Growler

    Aqualung @ #41 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:04 pm

    Nice. No bounce.
    Voice Endeavor. Seem to recall PJK using that term somewhere in the dim and distant past. Perhaps in reference to Hewson.

    You have to reach the bottom before you can bounce.

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