Menu lock

ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

Disappointing results for the government from the first two voting intention measures after the budget, despite strong support for the bank and Medicare levies.

Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).

UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

1058 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
KayJay
Guest

Using Chrome with Windows 10

Posting Emoji
With addon c+

😀
😰

KayJay
Guest

Using Chrome with Windows 10

Posting Emoji
With addon CCCP

😀
😰

KayJay
Guest

Using Chrome with Windows 10

Posting Emoji
With addon CCCP

KayJay
Guest

Using Chrome with Windows 10

Posting Emoji
With no addons (CCCP or C+)

🙂
😰

KayJay
Guest


🙂
😰

KayJay
Guest


:smile:’
😰

bemused
Guest

wakefield @ #1041 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:19 pm

Alias – I find that most NSW ALP left, and other NSW commentators and that covers quite a few in the ABC including seemingly Sarah Ferguson, have such a mistrust or hatred of the NSW Labor Right that it clouds their vision. The position is basically that if the NSW Labor Right support something then the best position is to oppose it and vice versa.
There is some merit in the position given the nasty history of the NSW Labor Right, but in some cases it causes poor assessments. I think some of Sarah Ferguson’s effort related to the poorly named “The Killing Season” are in that category. The stupid portrayal of Gillard in the ABC “At home with Julia” series was a much worse example.

I am an ALP member with a healthy loathing of much of the NSW ALP Right going back to the early ’70s. There is plenty of justification.
But oddly it still contributes some very good MPs. e.g. Tony Burke and Chris Bowen.
“At Home With Julia” was the most appalling piece of television ever and a gross error of judgement at the ABC.
“The Killing Fields” was, I thought, fair enough. It was a matter of great interest and all parties had their opportunity to have their say.

Toby Esterhase
Guest

Frankly, I don’t rate Ipsos: their primary for The Greens is always too high (ludicrously so in Victoria).

Question
Guest

Thanks Toby. That will do. Although the last one being 55 (that WB left off Bludgertrack) means a 2 point “bounce” : )

sonar
Guest

Bemused, I should of added that I wasn’t trying to single you out or that I meant offence to you personally by using your byline in my post…..I was talking about the RGR posts in general.

Toby Esterhase
Guest

For what Ipsos is worth, still have The Greens’ primary on an improbable 13; ALP 35; LNP 37.

bemused
Guest

player one @ #1039 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:18 pm

adrian @ #1031 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:11 pm
bloody emoticons. Trying again.

Rudd’s main problem was that he has Bemused as his most ardent supporter

You know, I think even Rudd would have bemused on his STFU list.

And Adrian’s biggest problem is he has you pissing in his pocket.

zoomster
Guest

Wakefield

Years ago, I was told (on some issue) that the NSW Labor Left was waiting until the NSW Labor Right declared its position so that it then knew what its position (opposing the Right’s) would be…

alias
Guest

My understanding is that a small number of AFR journalists did indeed strike, as they were members of the union. Non-union journalists (such as those on contracts, contributors etc) are not required to strike.

Toby Esterhase
Guest

Ipsos 53-47 TPP to Labor.

bemused
Guest

greg mcauliffe @ #1038 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:16 pm

Bemused,(and to all those in the R-G-R fueds) I get that you people are passionate, but to the non party aligned voter, of which I am one, rehashing this crap does not do you or your party an favours. It just reminds people of what a shit fight it was and shows that if it’s members ( of the ALP ) can’t get over it why should people vote for your party as the internal hate is still there.

I feel no hate, but I don’t want the same mistakes ever repeated.
Sensible analysis of some of the decisions, such as was taking place between myself and OC, without rancour, is fine by me. But the the droogs moved in.

Wakefield
Guest

Alias – I find that most NSW ALP left, and other NSW commentators and that covers quite a few in the ABC including seemingly Sarah Ferguson, have such a mistrust or hatred of the NSW Labor Right that it clouds their vision. The position is basically that if the NSW Labor Right support something then the best position is to oppose it and vice versa.

There is some merit in the position given the nasty history of the NSW Labor Right, but in some cases it causes poor assessments. I think some of Sarah Ferguson’s effort related to the poorly named “The Killing Season” are in that category. The stupid portrayal of Gillard in the ABC “At home with Julia” series was a much worse example.

C@tmomma
Guest

May I just make one last comment about the ‘body shaming’ brouhaha. Would it be possible for you all to just take a little while to reflect upon the world as it is now, not the world as you think it should be before you pass judgement, because the fact is, if you spend any time at all around your average Millennials, you will realise that commenting about people’s appearance is what they do as a matter of course, day in, day out, publicly, on social media.

It’s a narcissistic, bitchy world out there, and my problem originated from the fact that I carried that behaviour into a place that is populated by people who don’t behave that way. So I have learned that salient lesson.

Or, maybe, that it’s okay to compare someone to a vegetable but not add anything about the quality or quantity of that vegetable’s physical dimensions.

Don’t get me wrong, I can see how it offended people to elide a comment made about a former Prime Minister and tie it to another prominent female in the Parliament House arena.

So, as it offends people’s sensibilities I will refrain from behaving as I have.

I will also leave 2 questions to be answered if anyone can.

1. If most of the rest of the Fairfax journalists went out on strike, WHY didn’t the Australian Financial Review journalists join with them in solidarity for the cause?

2. It has been stated that Section Editors were exempt. Why then did Peter Hartcher and Ross Gittins strike? Or, more to the point, why didn’t the Section Editors at the AFR decide to join with them(see 1, above)?

Player One
Guest

adrian @ #1031 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:11 pm
bloody emoticons. Trying again.

Rudd’s main problem was that he has Bemused as his most ardent supporter

You know, I think even Rudd would have bemused on his STFU list.

wpDiscuz