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Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week's budget.

Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

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Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

test

zoidlord
Guest

More NSA dumps are coming.

zoidlord
Guest

Without energy you cannot do anything, not even power on the device that you are posting on PB for.

zoidlord
Guest

Normally rogue polls I see usually have a couple of percentage points difference.

Trog Sorrenson
Guest

LU

Ironically, the only thing that will save coal is electric vehicle

Coal will not be saved by anything except a reduction in the compounding annual growth in solar pv, and even that might not be enough. If electric vehicles are charged from power sources behind the meter (already cheaper than grid) then coal will not get a look in.

don
Guest
barry reynolds @ #1134 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:09 pm That makes two. I am so sick of the energy war on here. I know the protagonists are passionate about the subject but PLEASE give the rest of us a break. Why not start a Facebook page devoted to the subject? At least then I wouldn’t kill the scroll wheel on my mouse. Energy, the methods of harvesting it, the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the way it is implemented, the time scale on which the technologies come into fruition are top political topics. We are not… Read more »
silentmajority
Guest
I was prescribed champix a couple of years ago by a doctor. I took only a few & stopped after I apparently had both hands around missus throat while I was asleep. I didn’t remember anything. I think they are are very dangerous drugs. I spent $400 on hypnotism which was a dismal failure. In the end, what stopped me smoking was being locked up in the coronary ward of SCGH for 3 days. It worked a treat. Plus the heart attack brought me around to the right way of thinking. When I got home I chucked everything down to… Read more »
Barry Reynolds
Guest

Might as well have a moan on here as the significant other is tucked up in bed fast asleep. Been on Champix tablets for the last couple of weeks in another attempt to get off the lung busters (cigarettes for the uninitiated). Thus far things going well with none of the horrible side effects reported when using them, apart from one…. After a week of dealing with a viral nasty where all I wanted to do was sleep, I now have the opposite problem….insomnia.

Question
Guest
Thanks Voice Endeavour for your spreadsheet effort on Trump’s Gallup tracking numbers yesterday. Thanks also Kevin Bonham for some good reading on the current polls. I do have a question about your Reachtel deconstructions. From memory, because I don’t have a database of it, just about all the polls were stuck on 50-50 toward the end of the 2016 Federal campaign, including Reachtel. It got so unbending that I think either you or William or both did some commentary on “poll herding”. Anyway that’s how I remember the polls got the headline 2PP about right. No doubt the primaries are… Read more »
Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Grimace,

I haven’t read the report you are talking about and can’t comment on it despite my gut feel you are misrepresenting its conclusions.

She’s not, but on the other hand, P1 is not adequately discounting the use of a study of a single scenario in the CSIRO/ENA analysis. It’s not cherry-picked, as it was actually developed by some of the fine people at UNSW, it’s just that the generation mix at 2050 used in the subsequent study is a single prediction of a 35 year long reinvestment process.

Ironically, the only thing that will save coal is electric vehicles.

a r
Guest

A comment from the same article:

Chubbard is right: JavaScript is single threaded. This is not an example of multithreading, but rather synchronous message dispatch in a single thread. Yes, it’s possible to pause the stack and have event dispatch continue (e.g. alert()), but the kinds of access problems that occur in true multithreaded environments simply can’t happen; for example, you will never have a variable change values on you between a test and an immediately subsequent assignment, because your thread cannot be arbitrarily interrupted.

Barney in Go Dau
Guest
zoomster @ #1132 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:01 pm Cheers, C@. I am bewildered by a system which can allow an employer to shut down a workplace for no good reason. If he closed the factory full stop, he would have to pay the workers out, but apparently he can lock the gates for indefinite periods of time and incur no penalties for doing so. It simply doesn’t make sense. This is effectively the employer going on strike. If the workforce does this they are liable to fines and sanctions being placed on them, why is this not the… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/2734025/is-javascript-guaranteed-to-be-single-threaded In summary, JavaScript appears to most users, most of the time, to have a strict event-driven single thread of execution. In reality, it has no such thing. It is not clear how much of this is simply a bug and how much deliberate design, but if you’re writing complex applications, especially cross-window/frame-scripting ones, there is every chance it could bite you — and in intermittent, hard-to-debug ways. If the worst comes to the worst, you can solve concurrency problems by indirecting all event responses. When an event comes in, drop it in a queue and deal with the queue in order… Read more »
grimace
Guest
player one @ #1090 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:22 pm grimace @ #1081 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:14 pm I’ve been to several coal power plants and I can assure you that even the newest coal plant in Australia (Bluewaters power station in WA) will have fallen apart all by itself long before 2050, so stop repeating the stupidly uninformed assertion that Australia will still be burning coal in 2050. *Gulp* You mean the CSIRO, ENA and Trog are all wrong? The ENA and CSIRO I can understand, but surely not Trog? He seemed so certain! I haven’t… Read more »
imacca
Guest

[ Hundreds of workers at Australia’s largest equipment-hire business face a pay cut of up to40 per cent unless they agree to let the company slash new employees’ wages and conditions. ]

Interesting. Workers at Coates Hire get threatened with maybe having their EBA terminated and it makes the news. A W.A. University actually applies to have the EBA terminated (hearing starts on July 4 and is scheduled to run for 14 days) , with all the same consequences possible and we haven’t heard a peep in the news.

WGAFF about Universities and their staff anyway.

cupidstunt
Guest

Ford slashes its workforce by 10%. So much for Trumps “jobs for Americans” crap.

grimace
Guest
player one @ #1097 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:34 pm grimace @ #1096 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:31 pm Is there a single credible example of a nuclear power plant anywhere in the world being delivered within 50% of its original budget or without a blowout of 50% or more? Interesting that you don’t ask “Is there a single credible example of a country using nuclear power to decarbonize its economy”? Because of course there is – France. Why is it always about money with some people? Well, you were the one talking about the cost to decarbonise.… Read more »
confessions
Guest

Chris Kenny
32 mins ·
Yet again we see another leak from the Trump administration, and yet again Russia is in the middle of it.

It makes me wonder what toll these leaks will have on Donald Trump’s presidency if they continue.

I’m worried about a whole lot more important outcomes than the fate of Trump’s presidency if his chaotic and dysfunctional ignorance in office continues. Kenny needs to get a clue, esp as he refers to legitimate concerns about Trump’s conduct as Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Did youse all have an energy war while I was out trying to actually do something about it?

How bloody rude.

C@tmomma
Guest
I actually think this is one of the main reasons why Labor is still in the game, polling-wise. People are alert and alarmed about the IR policies by stealth of the Coalition government. This time it’s not particularly actions by the government, a la Workchoices, but the rearguard action by Employers. I still remember the government putting out the call for the Employers to help them prosecute their case for the reduction in Penalty Rates. Well, the employers have responded to the call, and then some! Malcolm gets to keep his clean hands that way too. Throw in a ‘Labor… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Employers have a fund that, if a business has to shut down, it sustains the owner, just like the Union funds do.

And that’s another thing the Americans, in concert with our federal government want to do. Smash the Unions.

C@tmomma
Guest
zoomster, I am bewildered by a system which can allow an employer to shut down a workplace for no good reason. Tactics. As the article I linked stated, this is the employers employing a new wrinkle so as to drive their wage bill down into the ground and bring our workers crashing back to earth. As the article also stated, one of the co-owners of Coates Hire is the Carlyle Group. Americans. They are bringing their mindset to Australia and employing it ruthlessly. And, right on cue, this is the result they are looking for: Real wage growth has fallen… Read more »
bemused
Guest

barry reynolds @ #1134 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:09 pm

That makes two. I am so sick of the energy war on here. I know the protagonists are passionate about the subject but PLEASE give the rest of us a break. Why not start a Facebook page devoted to the subject? At least then I wouldn’t kill the scroll wheel on my mouse.

It has strange effects on people. I find myself siding with Greens. {horror}

bemused
Guest
zoomster @ #1132 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:01 pm Cheers, C@. I am bewildered by a system which can allow an employer to shut down a workplace for no good reason. If he closed the factory full stop, he would have to pay the workers out, but apparently he can lock the gates for indefinite periods of time and incur no penalties for doing so. It simply doesn’t make sense. There are some fixed costs associated with just having the plant sit there and there is no income. They also risk losing customers so may incur large losses in… Read more »
WeWantPaul
Guest
“As a records manager by trade the culture and habit of the paper users is a tough nut to crack.” I worked for a law firm in the very early 2000’s who had a fantastic electronic database seamlessly integrated in the Microsoft word tool we all used. It was a little before the time of electronic finished signed documents but short of that it was fantastic. In the 15 years since I have worked for private business and for big accounting firms and no one has had a DMS better than the slightly structured shared windows server everyone uses. In… Read more »
Barry Reynolds
Guest

That makes two. I am so sick of the energy war on here. I know the protagonists are passionate about the subject but PLEASE give the rest of us a break. Why not start a Facebook page devoted to the subject? At least then I wouldn’t kill the scroll wheel on my mouse.

Steve777
Guest

Trump is a big kid?

“We’ve got this perverse situation in which the vast analytic powers of the entire world are being spent trying to understand a guy whose thoughts are often just six fireflies beeping randomly in a jar.”

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/when-the-world-is-led-by-a-child-20170516-gw5ri0.html

zoomster
Guest

Cheers, C@.

I am bewildered by a system which can allow an employer to shut down a workplace for no good reason. If he closed the factory full stop, he would have to pay the workers out, but apparently he can lock the gates for indefinite periods of time and incur no penalties for doing so.

It simply doesn’t make sense.

C@tmomma
Guest

Anyhoo, on a lighter note, this has to be the best pen portrait of Trump (by David Brooks), that I have read:

We’ve got this perverse situation in which the vast analytic powers of the entire world are being spent trying to understand a guy whose thoughts are often just six fireflies beeping randomly in a jar.

🙂

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/when-the-world-is-led-by-a-child-20170516-gw5ri0.html

bemused
Guest

john reidy @ #1128 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:53 pm

True William re rogues, I never really got a feel for statistical sampling.
Problem is if you get a rogue in a particular direction and at a particular time, as a result all of Fairfax goes off the reservation.

It is not immediately apparent that a result is a rogue. Hence some will get very excited.

C@tmomma
Guest
zoomster, Actually, I was thinking about you when I wrote that, insofar as I would have thought that a discussion which highlighted the exigencies of that which you and your husband are facing might be a positive contribution to an understanding of what is happening to the Working Men and Women of Australia right now. However, I can understand how you may want to block it out. I just can’t. There’s too little time and only a finite amount of energy, the real kind we have in our own little nuclear generators, our bodies, to fight the good fight. So… Read more »
John Reidy
Guest

True William re rogues, I never really got a feel for statistical sampling.
Problem is if you get a rogue in a particular direction and at a particular time, as a result all of Fairfax goes off the reservation.

zoomster
Guest

C@

Sorry, but given my husband is entering the fifth week of being locked out of work without pay and his wage is our only income, indulging in a little discussion about issues which don’t effect me as directly is a nice distraction.

But hey, keep assuming I’m doing it from the lap of luxury and stroking my ego…

Steve777
Guest

The margin of error is usually taken to be half the range between the upper and lower limits of the 95% confidence interval, with the term ‘rogue’ poll referring to one that falls outside this range. So, in a well conducted poll, about one poll in 20 will be a rogue. This will occur about every second year for a poll conducted monthly.

C@tmomma
Guest

Wake up and smell the coffee! Malcolm Turnbull is presiding over this and a few ersatz Labor policies in the Budget can in no way disguise his mob’s true intent for this country.

I bet nothing makes Malcolm’s minions assigned to monitor this blog happier than to observe the Energy fol de rol here. In fact, one of them is probably the biggest Gish Galloper amongst the perpetrators. I wouldn’t be surprised.

bemused
Guest
dingbat the first @ #1118 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:16 pm Trog, P1 is better at mounting a cogent argument than you. No credible argument exists that we will achieve 100% renewables in less than 30 years, and you believe we should continue with coal for all that time rather than use public money for transition fuels such as gas to replace coal. You may be right, but equally you may be wrong. The case is not so clear cut to warrant the abuse. The only way we would achieve 100% renewables in a significantly shorter time frame is… Read more »
a r
Guest
Trump declares himself the absolute authority on deciding what intel to share with Russia. I’m sure U.S. allies love that and will be encouraged to continue openly sharing their intelligence with the U.S. in the future. As President I wanted to share with Russia (at an openly scheduled W.H. meeting) which I have the absolute right to do https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/864436162567471104 …to say nothing about how bad “I wanted to share with Russia” looks in the midst Trump-Russia investigations (or even the more general investigations into Russian-driven electoral sabotage). Or how that looks even worse on the back of having fired Comey… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest
While you guys have been busy stroking your egos and indulging in the luxury of arguing the toss, again, tonight, over Energy alternatives for your own obviously rosy futures, because who else has the time to sit here and indulge themselves so, THIS has been happening to other Australians struggling just to make ends meet: Hundreds of workers at Australia’s largest equipment-hire business face a pay cut of up to40 per cent unless they agree to let the company slash new employees’ wages and conditions. http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/coates-hire-workers-in-danger-of-devastating-pay-cut-20170515-gw5mc5.html If this deal is forced on the employees, they probably won’t even be able… Read more »
John Reidy
Guest

KB’s post is well worth a read, especially if you like hunting Yetis.

If I may comment here, I have been thinking about the polls and I now like Essential.
It is regular, doesn’t change much week to week and doesn’t seem to have as many rogues.
I think the stability reflects most voters who would have a vague impression of the budget, especially uncommitted voters, so asking them for a preference in a budget context doesn’t have much meaning.

Steve777
Guest
Zoomster @9:59PM: my post wasn’t about nuclear specifically, although it does apply in the sense that no one could make a profit from nuclear power in Australia without subsidies. I am actually ‘agnostic’ about nuclear power. It is carbon neutral. The waste products, while poisonous, are not voluminous and can be managed. Problem is, they need to be managed for a VERY long time and will accumulate for as long as nuclear power is used. But continuing to pump CO2 into the atmosphere is more dangerous, in my opinion. But managing the waste could be profitable. I am also open… Read more »
Dingbat The First
Guest
Trog, P1 is better at mounting a cogent argument than you. No credible argument exists that we will achieve 100% renewables in less than 30 years, and you believe we should continue with coal for all that time rather than use public money for transition fuels such as gas to replace coal. You may be right, but equally you may be wrong. The case is not so clear cut to warrant the abuse. The only way we would achieve 100% renewables in a significantly shorter time frame is by throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at it and ironically the… Read more »
a r
Guest
zoomster @ #1108 Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 – 9:59 pm So – for example – nuclear isn’t just more expensive than other options, it would take too long to get up and running. That depends upon how safe, efficient, long-lasting, and non-environmentally-destructive you want your reactor to be. At the low end, chucking a critical mass of of fissile material into a pressure vessel with some water and harvesting the steam to spin a turbine shouldn’t take long or cost much to implement. And it’ll work just fine until the radioactive material melts its way through the bottom of the… Read more »
Player One
Guest

trog sorrenson @ #1113 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:08 pm

P1 – the Malcolm Roberts of PB is sucking you in again. There can be no sane discussion of energy facts or policy with P1. An alternate universe of logic where 2+2 = 69

Still with the insults in place of any actual arguments, Trog?

Dingbat The First
Guest

“arguments which were clearly in the context of whether or not nuclear was practical in Australia”

Except the discussion clearly referenced nuclear energy beyond Australia. It must be one of those obvious unstated assumptions like CO2 reductions underpinning all the comments even though (again) it has barely been mentioned whereas cost has been mentioned nearly every single post.

Player One
Guest

zoomster @ #1110 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 10:02 pm

To counter arguments which were clearly in the context of whether or not nuclear was practical in Australia by saying wtte (as you did) of ‘so is China wrong then?” was beyond pathetic.

So first of all you make up an argument I never proposed. Then you castigate me for it?

If my analogy highlighted this for you, then I’m pleased.

Your analogy highlighted a few things for me. None of them very complimentary to you.

Trog Sorrenson
Guest

P1 – the Malcolm Roberts of PB is sucking you in again. There can be no sane discussion of energy facts or policy with P1. An alternate universe of logic where 2+2 = 69

Steve777
Guest
Player One
Guest

dingbat the first @ #1106 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:58 pm

P1’s argument, obvious to anyone, is that we ‘should’ have nuclear because it reduces CO2 emissions.

Actually, I started this discussion (responding to Boerwar’s original post) by saying that I didn’t think Australia would ever have nuclear. I still don’t.

But that seems to have escaped most of the posters who jumped in afterwards.

Because ‘nuclear’.

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