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Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week's budget.

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Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

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1,160 thoughts on “Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

  1. mikehilliard

    Turnbull must be praying for a better Newspoll result.

  2. Greg McAuliffe

    Turnbull is praying for a better anything at the mo”

  3. Question

    That’ll do.

    Will this one make Bludgertrack WB?

  4. Gorkay King

    Good result for Labor , in line with other polling . Last IPSOS was bit of a joke with unlikely primaries.

  5. Desert Qlder

    PM’s budget gamble backfires

    9:30PM May 14, 2017

    Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten outside Parliament House on Wednesday. Picture: Kym Smith
    Australians have denied Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison a political dividend from the dramatic shift in direction in the federal budget, with the government losing ground against Labor to trail by 47 to 53 per cent in the latest Newspoll.

    Voters have moved to Labor and the Greens to give Bill Shorten a bigger lead in two-party terms compared to the last poll three weeks ago, which showed Labor was ahead by 52 to 48 per cent.

    The blow to the Coalition came despite an improvement in Mr Turnbull’s personal satisfaction ratings and a lift in his results as preferred prime minister, where he widened the gap against Mr Shorten.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian and published in detail in tomorrow’s edition in print and online, shows the Coalition’s primary vote remains at 36 per cent, in line with the previous two surveys.

    Support for Labor increased from 35 to 36 per cent in primary vote terms while support for the Greens rose from 9 to 10 per cent over the period from the previous Newspoll, which was conducted from April 20 to 23.

    The period between the two polls saw the government canvass ideas to tackle housing affordability, unveil a spending boost for schools alongside key adviser David Gonski and then announce a budget that cancelled unpopular savings measures in favour of a tax hit on the banks and an increase in the Medicare levy from 2 to 2.5 per cent.

    The Newspoll survey of 1716 voters was taken from Thursday to Sunday amid a heightened public debate over the Medicare levy, with Mr Shorten offering to exempt workers earning less than $87,000 a year and sparking a debate over his plan to keep a temporary deficit levy that would push the top personal tax rate to 49.5 per cent.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-pms-budget-gamble-backfires/news-story/8461a7d602f23f8e2601ad87deb6eaf5

  6. alias

    For some reason, when it comes to the politics, the whole game is Newspoll..

  7. Wakefield

    William B – your Newspoll wish has been granted!

  8. bemused

    From previous thread.
    wakefield @ #1041 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:19 pm

    Alias – I find that most NSW ALP left, and other NSW commentators and that covers quite a few in the ABC including seemingly Sarah Ferguson, have such a mistrust or hatred of the NSW Labor Right that it clouds their vision. The position is basically that if the NSW Labor Right support something then the best position is to oppose it and vice versa.
    There is some merit in the position given the nasty history of the NSW Labor Right, but in some cases it causes poor assessments. I think some of Sarah Ferguson’s effort related to the poorly named “The Killing Season” are in that category. The stupid portrayal of Gillard in the ABC “At home with Julia” series was a much worse example.

    I am an ALP member with a healthy loathing of much of the NSW ALP Right going back to the early ’70s. There is plenty of justification.
    But oddly it still contributes some very good MPs. e.g. Tony Burke and Chris Bowen.
    “At Home With Julia” was the most appalling piece of television ever and a gross error of judgement at the ABC.
    “The Killing Fields” was, I thought, fair enough. It was a matter of great interest and all parties had their opportunity to have their say.

  9. antonbruckner11

    Toby – did you see that John Le Carre is writing another Smiley book. I hope you get a gig.

  10. Question

    We seem to have a 53-47 consensus.

  11. Leroy Lynch

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-pms-budget-gamble-backfires/news-story/8461a7d602f23f8e2601ad87deb6eaf5

    Newspoll: PM’s budget gamble backfires
    The Australian 9:30PM May 14, 2017
    DAVID CROWE Political correspondent Canberra

    Australians have denied Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison a political dividend from the dramatic shift in direction in the federal budget, with the government losing ground against Labor to trail by 47 to 53 per cent in the latest Newspoll.

    Voters have moved to Labor and the Greens to give Bill Shorten a bigger lead in two-party terms compared to the last poll three weeks ago, which showed Labor was ahead by 52 to 48 per cent.

    The blow to the Coalition came despite an improvement in Mr Turnbull’s personal satisfaction ratings and a lift in his results as preferred prime minister, where he widened the gap against Mr Shorten.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian and published in detail in tomorrow’s edition in print and online, shows the Coalition’s primary vote remains at 36 per cent, in line with the previous two surveys.

    Support for Labor increased from 35 to 36 per cent in primary vote terms while support for the Greens rose from 9 to 10 per cent over the period from the previous Newspoll, which was conducted from April 20 to 23.

    The period between the two polls saw the government canvass ideas to tackle housing affordability, unveil a spending boost for schools alongside key adviser David Gonski and then announce a budget that cancelled unpopular savings measures in favour of a tax hit on the banks and an increase in the Medicare levy from 2 to 2.5 per cent.

    The Newspoll survey of 1716 voters was taken from Thursday to Sunday amid a heightened public debate over the Medicare levy, with Mr Shorten offering to exempt workers earning less than $87,000 a year and sparking a debate over his plan to keep a temporary deficit levy that would push the top personal tax rate to 49.5 per cent.

  12. antonbruckner11

    I suspect that the govt’s change of direction in this budget has just left the electorate confused and bemused rather than appreciative.

  13. bemused

    greg mcauliffe @ #1049 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:28 pm

    Bemused, I should of added that I wasn’t trying to single you out or that I meant offence to you personally by using your byline in my post…..I was talking about the RGR posts in general.

    No offence taken, I assumed as much.
    I am not one of those precious petals that can dish it out but not take it.

  14. alias

    I think the impact of the quite dramatic switch in policy direction by the LNP in its Budget is going to take considerably longer than a few days to play out. There is quite a bit to absorb and I really can’t see that this has happened in the few days since Tuesday. I’m not sure where it’s going to land but I certainly wouldn’t take these latest polls as the definitive word on what the electorate will make of the two parties’ respective positions.

  15. Gorkay King

    No budget bounce at all. Labor will be happy with this . Tomorrows essential is the only poll left and I expect 54-46 .

  16. mari

    Yeah from Chile newspoll ALP up one on IPOS still ALP way

  17. Question

    Alias, it’s not hard to take in at all.

    The 1% got a 1.5% tax cut and the rest got a 0.5% increase.

  18. Sohar

    Many post-budget polls take a couple of weeks to hit bottom for a government. Starting at 47 or 46 suggests that 45-55 ain’t far away. Nor is Brian Trumble’s political demise.

  19. Dan Gulberry

    Well, Megaloginis and Tingle look pretty silly and out of touch now don’t they.

  20. antonbruckner11

    Dan – Well said.

  21. antonbruckner11

    Dan – Well said.

  22. mikehilliard

    I certainly wouldn’t take these latest polls as the definitive word on what the electorate will make of the two parties’ respective positions.

    OK then I’ll just take the last odd twenty 😛

  23. cupidstunt

    GOODBYE TURNBULL again.

  24. cupidstunt

    The electorate are finished listening to Turnbull,and no one is listening or reading his cheer squads opinions either.

  25. phylactella

    Urban Wronski on the budget, underpaying the poorest paid employees and lying bastards’ budget!
    “A dodgy bastards’ budget of lies.”
    https://urbanwronski.com

  26. Dan Gulberry

    Libspill III coming in 10, 9, 8, 7, 6……

  27. cupidstunt

    The Libs wont be dancing in the corridors of parliament tomorrow. Dickheads!!

  28. cupidstunt

    Would you like a large knife or a skewer Mr Abbott?

  29. Question

    Insiders often has blatant LIB backers like Savva and Stutchbury, who predicted Turnbull would get 92 seats. Why not an up front ALP backer every now and again. Kristina Keneally.

  30. bemused

    cupidstunt @ #28 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 9:56 pm

    The Libs wont be dancing in the corridors of parliament tomorrow. Dickheads!!

    Oh to be a fly on the wall of the LNP party room.

  31. Rossmore

    I’ll give George Mega the benefit of the doubt on his comments today. He’s the best commentator around but not infallible and his claim that Labor isn’t ready for government on the basis of Shorten’s budget reply had a whif of hubris and overreach.

  32. cupidstunt

    12 down 18 to go for Brian Trumble.

  33. bemused

    rossmore @ #32 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 10:00 pm

    I’ll give George Mega the benefit of the doubt on his comments today. He’s the best commentator around but not infallible and his claim that Labor isn’t ready for government on the basis of Shorten’s budget reply had a whif of hubris and overreach.

    It was pure BS.
    He is over-rated. Greg Jericho and the Kouk are way better on economics and Paul Bongiorno better on the politics.

  34. antonbruckner11

    Cupidstunt – Maybe Malcolm’s vicious behaviour in parliament has absolutely crippled his ability to make a case to the Australian people. They have seen real Malcolm and just want him gone.

  35. C@tmomma

    Malcolm Turnbull still hasn’t gone so far as to repudiate his stance on the Penalty Rate cuts and while ever he doesn’t do that and Bill Shorten keeps travelling around Australia in the ‘Bill Bus’ with it’s Penalty Rates preservation slogan emblazoned on the back for all to see then people will know who is Labor and who will never be ‘Labor Lite’, no matter how they might try to dress themselves up.

    Turnbull, Morrison, Pyne and Birmingham, with their Conservative Praetorian Guard of Dutton and Cormann, can try cross-dressing in Labor garb all they want and redefining their previous criticisms away to a pointless pointillist political dot, but they cannot, and will not, do what a real Labor Party will. Fight for the Workers.

    People can see their attacks on basic Wages and Conditions, the foundation for a Progressive society, a mile off, and no amount of the seeming adoption of Labor shibboleths can change that because they always find a way, not for the Workers to benefit from it, but their spiv mates.

    The vast majority of Australians I think are united in this fight to maintain the Australian Settlement of a strong social safety net and a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work.

    So, really, it’s easy to see why people are still voting for the ALP in polls.

  36. Rossmore

    Bemused I suspect Shorten’s Australia First ad is what riled Mega and provoked the reaction today. Both IMO got it wrong.

  37. cupidstunt

    I cant see any way back for Turncoat now. He has well and truly burnt his bridges with the electorate and they’re punishing him for it.The public doesn’t know what the hell he stands for but do know he’s a complete sell out and a fake,hollow man, who has thrown every principle he believed in under a bus.

  38. antonbruckner11

    Yes, the penalty rate cuts don’t kick in for a few months (is it?) When they do, there will be hell to pay.

  39. Question

    I like Mega, but that doesn’t mean he’s always right.

    The pundits are doing what they have always done with Turnbull. Squinting for the new dawn. Also underestimating Shorten. It’s tedious and usually wrong.

  40. C@tmomma

    Rossmore said it way better than me. 🙂

  41. Rossmore

    Question … my sentiment too

  42. cupidstunt

    I think the consensus is 53-47 without a shadow of a doubt after all these polls.

  43. Wakefield

    I am waiting for the ACTU to put a proposition to both LNP and Labor about wage rises for workers being cranked up to 3% and taxing multinationals. The figures for the level of wages versus profits have been heading in the wrong direction for quite a few years and the current settings and union strength don’t suggest any dramatic change.

  44. bemused

    rossmore @ #37 Sunday, May 14, 2017 at 10:05 pm

    Bemused I suspect Shorten’s Australia First ad is what riled Mega and provoked the reaction today. Both IMO got it wrong.

    Actually, there was an interesting article on Macro Business that gave the stats on the Australian population which indicated that ad was fairly representative. Not in my suburb or plenty of others, but for the whole of Australia.
    There was a massive over-reaction to that ad but it would have been smarter to include more people of obviously non-European ethnic backgrounds even though it would become not truly representative in a statistical sense. Just smart politics.

  45. cupidstunt

    I think that Bludgertrack is extremely accurate at the moment too.

  46. C@tmomma

    Yes, the penalty rate cuts don’t kick in for a few months (is it?) When they do, there will be hell to pay.

    Yep. July 1. However, that’s just around the corner now. 6 weeks away. Wait tilll people see what they get the week before in their pay packet, and then what they get after the change.

    Plus we’ll have to start Job Watch up. Or at least Labor should. Measure exactly how many new jobs are created in businesses with turnover up to $50 Million between now and the election. 🙂

  47. Sohar

    I think we can stop making excuses for Mega and the AFR journo. MSM journalists are owned and it shows.

  48. Rossmore

    Bemused it may have been smart politics but it was unseemly for the ALP. They should be bigger than that and lead not dog whistling.

  49. cupidstunt

    The public have worked out how biased every commentator/journo/newspaper is nowadays and are making their mind up for themselves, giving those outlets little credibility whoever they are.

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