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Newspoll and Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Two more pollsters add to an impression of little immediate change on voting intention in the wake of last week's budget.

Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:

• Newspoll moves slightly in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 after dropping back to 52-48 in the previous poll three weeks ago. Both parties are on 36% of the primary vote, with the Coalition steady and Labor up a point, with the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down one to 9%. The report states that Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval has improved from minus 25% to minus 20%, while Bill Shorten’s is down from minus 22% to minus 20%, although approval and disapproval ratings are not provided. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-33 to 44-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1716.

• The post-budget Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers, conducted Wednesday to Thursday from a sample of 1401, has Labor leading 53-47, down from 55-45 in the previous poll in late March. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up four to 37%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down three from a hard-to-credit result last time to record 13%. Both leaders have improved substantially on person ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up five on approval to 45% and down four to 44% – the first net positive result we’ve seen for either leader in a long time – and Bill Shorten up seven to 42% and down six to 47%. The preferred prime minister shifts from 45-33 to 47-35. Newspoll hopefully to follow.

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Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.



More NSA dumps are coming.


Without energy you cannot do anything, not even power on the device that you are posting on PB for.


Normally rogue polls I see usually have a couple of percentage points difference.

Trog Sorrenson


Ironically, the only thing that will save coal is electric vehicle

Coal will not be saved by anything except a reduction in the compounding annual growth in solar pv, and even that might not be enough. If electric vehicles are charged from power sources behind the meter (already cheaper than grid) then coal will not get a look in.


barry reynolds @ #1134 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:09 pm

That makes two. I am so sick of the energy war on here. I know the protagonists are passionate about the subject but PLEASE give the rest of us a break. Why not start a Facebook page devoted to the subject? At least then I wouldn’t kill the scroll wheel on my mouse.

Energy, the methods of harvesting it, the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the way it is implemented, the time scale on which the technologies come into fruition are top political topics.

We are not discussing gluten free diets.
We are not discussing cats.

If you cannot understand that energy is one of the most important political subjects in Australia and the world, you have not been paying attention.

Our politicians understand that energy is political.

Remember the lump of lacquered black coal in Parliament?

Remember the Snowies 2 brainfart by the PM?

Remember the SA blackouts and the reasons (some false, some correct) given out by politicians and engineers?

This is a political discussion, and this is a politics blog.

However, if you do want to discuss fad diets and cute kittens, go ahead.


I was prescribed champix a couple of years ago by a doctor. I took only a few & stopped after I apparently had both hands around missus throat while I was asleep. I didn’t remember anything.
I think they are are very dangerous drugs.
I spent $400 on hypnotism which was a dismal failure.
In the end, what stopped me smoking was being locked up in the coronary ward of SCGH for 3 days. It worked a treat. Plus the heart attack brought me around to the right way of thinking. When I got home I chucked everything down to the last match stick away without regret.
I got 10 sessions of physio at the hospital gym & this plus walking every day & breathing instead of smoking has done it for me. I feel 200% on last december.
I still cough a bit but it’s clearing up. I push myself in the gym & had walking races with the other victims. Some of us don’t want that second attack.
I’m much fitter, I put on some weight but have arrested the gains & am turning it into muscle.
I wanted to give smoking up for a long time but found it very hard. The health scare did it but being physically locked away from the packet for that three days is what did it. It broke the addiction.
Now I am beholden to nothing! Nothing! Not Alcohol or tobacco or sugar.
Think in three’s.
Can I go without a smoke for 3 minutes?
Then 3 hours, then 3 days, then 3 weeks, then 3 months.
I’ve climbed the walls a few times. I have smoked a bit of green on these occasions & got so dizzy I’ve been instantly cured of wanting anymore.
Cannabis can be a help, truely. It is not addictive like tobacco & you just cant smoke as much. A much maligned drug.
Good luck.

Barry Reynolds

Might as well have a moan on here as the significant other is tucked up in bed fast asleep. Been on Champix tablets for the last couple of weeks in another attempt to get off the lung busters (cigarettes for the uninitiated). Thus far things going well with none of the horrible side effects reported when using them, apart from one…. After a week of dealing with a viral nasty where all I wanted to do was sleep, I now have the opposite problem….insomnia.


Thanks Voice Endeavour for your spreadsheet effort on Trump’s Gallup tracking numbers yesterday.

Thanks also Kevin Bonham for some good reading on the current polls.

I do have a question about your Reachtel deconstructions. From memory, because I don’t have a database of it, just about all the polls were stuck on 50-50 toward the end of the 2016 Federal campaign, including Reachtel. It got so unbending that I think either you or William or both did some commentary on “poll herding”. Anyway that’s how I remember the polls got the headline 2PP about right. No doubt the primaries are a different matter.

So my question is, no matter what you think of the way they got there, if the Reachtel 2PP was about right, their sample weightings have probably evolved to accommodate preferences the way they do, to get the 2PP headline that most will judge them by. So without knowing the way the sample is weighted, isn’t it impossible to deconstruct the numbers? And by applying a preference model that you prefer, aren’t you in danger of amplifying a bias in weightings that are designed for a different methodology?

Libertarian Unionist


I haven’t read the report you are talking about and can’t comment on it despite my gut feel you are misrepresenting its conclusions.

She’s not, but on the other hand, P1 is not adequately discounting the use of a study of a single scenario in the CSIRO/ENA analysis. It’s not cherry-picked, as it was actually developed by some of the fine people at UNSW, it’s just that the generation mix at 2050 used in the subsequent study is a single prediction of a 35 year long reinvestment process.

Ironically, the only thing that will save coal is electric vehicles.

a r

A comment from the same article:

Chubbard is right: JavaScript is single threaded. This is not an example of multithreading, but rather synchronous message dispatch in a single thread. Yes, it’s possible to pause the stack and have event dispatch continue (e.g. alert()), but the kinds of access problems that occur in true multithreaded environments simply can’t happen; for example, you will never have a variable change values on you between a test and an immediately subsequent assignment, because your thread cannot be arbitrarily interrupted.

Barney in Go Dau

zoomster @ #1132 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 11:01 pm

Cheers, C@.
I am bewildered by a system which can allow an employer to shut down a workplace for no good reason. If he closed the factory full stop, he would have to pay the workers out, but apparently he can lock the gates for indefinite periods of time and incur no penalties for doing so.
It simply doesn’t make sense.

This is effectively the employer going on strike.

If the workforce does this they are liable to fines and sanctions being placed on them, why is this not the case for an employer? 🙁

cud chewer

In summary, JavaScript appears to most users, most of the time, to have a strict event-driven single thread of execution. In reality, it has no such thing. It is not clear how much of this is simply a bug and how much deliberate design, but if you’re writing complex applications, especially cross-window/frame-scripting ones, there is every chance it could bite you — and in intermittent, hard-to-debug ways.

If the worst comes to the worst, you can solve concurrency problems by indirecting all event responses. When an event comes in, drop it in a queue and deal with the queue in order later, in a setInterval function. If you are writing a framework that you intend to be used by complex applications, doing this could be a good move. postMessage will also hopefully soothe the pain of cross-document scripting in the future.


player one @ #1090 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:22 pm

grimace @ #1081 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:14 pm

I’ve been to several coal power plants and I can assure you that even the newest coal plant in Australia (Bluewaters power station in WA) will have fallen apart all by itself long before 2050, so stop repeating the stupidly uninformed assertion that Australia will still be burning coal in 2050.

*Gulp* You mean the CSIRO, ENA and Trog are all wrong? The ENA and CSIRO I can understand, but surely not Trog? He seemed so certain!

I haven’t read the report you are talking about and can’t comment on it despite my gut feel you are misrepresenting its conclusions. I have seen some of the bills to maintain an aging coal power plant, and I have seen the rapid drop in the costs of renewable energy, embedded rewneable generation and storage. Coal and gas are not far from extinction.

Bluewaters has been in voluntary administration three times since it was commissioned in 2009, even without the impact of a carbon tax, an EIS or the high costs of maintaining an aging power plant. One of the two coal miners in Collie is again in voluntary administration, without the help of a carbon tax or EIS.

The coal industry in Australia is going to collapse due to the economics of embedded generation & storage and coal vs renewables long before the end of the economic life of any of the power plants.


[ Hundreds of workers at Australia’s largest equipment-hire business face a pay cut of up to40 per cent unless they agree to let the company slash new employees’ wages and conditions. ]

Interesting. Workers at Coates Hire get threatened with maybe having their EBA terminated and it makes the news. A W.A. University actually applies to have the EBA terminated (hearing starts on July 4 and is scheduled to run for 14 days) , with all the same consequences possible and we haven’t heard a peep in the news.

WGAFF about Universities and their staff anyway.


Ford slashes its workforce by 10%. So much for Trumps “jobs for Americans” crap.


player one @ #1097 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:34 pm

grimace @ #1096 Tuesday, May 16, 2017 at 9:31 pm

Is there a single credible example of a nuclear power plant anywhere in the world being delivered within 50% of its original budget or without a blowout of 50% or more?

Interesting that you don’t ask “Is there a single credible example of a country using nuclear power to decarbonize its economy”? Because of course there is – France.
Why is it always about money with some people?

Well, you were the one talking about the cost to decarbonise.

It would cost a fraction as much to decarbonise using solar, wind, wave (Carnegie) and battery than it would use nuclear, and given the history of nuclear, the first installations of wind, solar and battery would be approaching the end of their economic lives before the hypothetical nuclear power plant was even close to producing its first kilowatt.


Chris Kenny
32 mins ·
Yet again we see another leak from the Trump administration, and yet again Russia is in the middle of it.

It makes me wonder what toll these leaks will have on Donald Trump’s presidency if they continue.

I’m worried about a whole lot more important outcomes than the fate of Trump’s presidency if his chaotic and dysfunctional ignorance in office continues. Kenny needs to get a clue, esp as he refers to legitimate concerns about Trump’s conduct as Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Libertarian Unionist

Did youse all have an energy war while I was out trying to actually do something about it?

How bloody rude.