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BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Lots of new data but still no movement on BludgerTrack's voting intention trend, although there's a little more going on with leaders' net approval ratings.

A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.

I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.

ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.

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1847 comments

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booleanbach
Guest

Re. the published parliamentary members’ mobile numbers:
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/23/how-hundreds-parliamentary-mobile-numbers-were-leaked-online
The Department of Parliamentary Services confirmed some MPs have requested new phone numbers following the privacy breach, but the Department will continue to use Telco Management.
Where is the accountability here?
Parliamentarians are really quick to jump on so called ‘dole bludgers’ and penalise them mercilessly for the slightest failure to fill in a form correctly; but when it comes to a company that breaches all sorts of privacy guidelines there is no penalty whatsoever.

swamprat
Guest

Oops it said my first post was lost. I re wrote it. Soory for almost dual post

swamprat
Guest

god liberals get themselves tied in knots with their bullshit.
liberal dogma is that criticism of islam is racist
“Racism” is the primary evil facing liberals and it is everywhere, like witchcraft in Salem,
A pious moslem who goes regularly to mosque
And who commits an act of violence in the name of his religion and bravely kills himself in his cause
The only way a liberal can square the circle is to say
He was obviously mentally ill
1000s of mentally ill non-moslems are suddenly doing lots of dastardly deeds
Carried to its logical conclusion, The philosphical absurdity of liberal thinking is:
If a “moslem” does any evil, by (liberal) definition he is not a moslem
Therefore it is impossible for “moslems” to do anything evil.

This bullshit plays directly to the benefit of tories.

Barney in Go Dau
Guest

swamprat @ #1838 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 10:39 am

“liberals” are amusing in their tenacious ideology and group think.
Criticism of islam is “racist”
Someone consciously, deliberately and publicly proclaims their actions are in the name of islam/allah,
they come from a pious family
attend mosque regularly
so it can only be mental illness.
Mental illness is the necessary explanation, otherwise the liberal’s dogmas might be questioned. Haha
liberal bullshit is so successful in ensuring tory victories.

Maybe there’s no difference?

Maybe religion is a mental illness?

Dovey
Guest

It so wrong to keep calling this Islamic or Muslim terrorism: it is Sunni terrorism.
During the Irish troubles, it was never described as Christian terrorism, always the credit was given to the Catholics or Protestants, you could not mix it up with Anglicans or Greel Orthodox.

I do not think that there has been any attack on the West by any of the other Muslim sects: Sufi, Shia etc.

Please use the correct term: Sunni terrorism.
The sucide bomber in Manchester was a Sunni and went to a Sunni mosque, most of who are funded by Saudi money

swamprat
Guest

Oops

swamprat
Guest

“liberals”, i include most who dominate

swamprat
Guest

“liberals” are amusing in their tenacious ideology and group think.
Criticism of islam is “racist”
Someone consciously, deliberately and publicly proclaims their actions are in the name of islam/allah,
they come from a pious family
attend mosque regularly
so it can only be mental illness.
Mental illness is the necessary explanation, otherwise the liberal’s dogmas might be questioned. Haha
liberal bullshit is so successful in ensuring tory victories.

guytaur
Guest

jilevin: Report: Trump will hire Marc Kasowitz as private counsel in Russia probe bit.ly/2ry7znu

https://twitter.com/jilevin/status/867177667908554756
=======================================================
BBCWorld: Sydney siege: Coroner to reveal inquest findings bbc.in/2rxGEby

Voice Endeavour
Guest

Trump must be getting lessons from Joe ‘eleventy’ Hockey on how to run a budget.

Apparently, the budget forecasts that U.S. economic growth will rise to 3.0 percent because of the administration’s policies — largely its tax cuts and perhaps also its regulatory policies. Then the administration asserts that it will propose revenue neutral tax cuts with the revenue neutrality coming in part because the tax cuts stimulate growth! This is an elementary double count. You can’t use the growth benefits of tax cuts once to justify an optimistic baseline and then again to claim that the tax cuts do not cost revenue.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/23/larry-summers-trumps-budget-is-simply-ludicrous/?utm_term=.2211f0a8d618

bemused
Guest

victoria @ #1819 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:57 am

Mentally ill people can experience grandiose delusions and some believe they are Jesus or God. It is therefore easy to see in this climate of radical Islam extremism, that those who are unstable, commit atrocities in the name of Allah.

Good to see you acknowledging some of the realities of severe mental illness.
Fortunately, most are not dangerous.

bemused
Guest

c@tmomma @ #1822 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 10:00 am

Bemused,
As for me busking… with my talent deficit I think I would be heckled and chased by an angry mob!
Maybe you can make your fortune from people paying you not to busk!

You are revealing true entrepreneurial flair!

phoenixRED
Guest

‘It’s a one witness impeachment trial’: Olbermann puts Trump on notice that Comey will bring him down

Keith Olbermann has released a new episode of his GQ show where the longtime broadcaster posits an intriguing legal theory about investigations into Russian collusion with the Donald Trump campaign.

“It is a one witness impeachment trial now waiting to happen,” Olbermann said of expected Comey testimony. “Either Comey is lying – and lying and lying and lying or Trump’s presidency is already over and we just don’t know whether the Republicans will bury it soon in hopes of recovering by the midterms or if they will wait for the possibility that Democrats will get to do it early in 2019.”

http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/its-a-one-witness-impeachment-trial-olbermann-puts-trump-on-notice-that-comey-will-bring-him-down/

phoenixRED
Guest

What The Senate Intelligence Committee Just Did To Mike Flynn Should Terrify Donald Trump

After Mike Flynn took the Fifth and refused to testify or turn over documents, the Senate Intelligence Committee subpoenaed two of Flynn’s businesses, because a corporation has no Fifth Amendment rights. This a point that should scare the living daylights out of Donald Trump.

The message to Trump is clear. You personally can try to hide information, but your corporations can’t, and investigators are going to use every method at their disposal to get access to the information that they need. Remember this moment, because Trump’s businesses and his campaign were intertwined like observers had never seen before

http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/23/senate-intelligence-committee-mike-flynn-terrify-donald-trump.html

guytaur
Guest

The Coroners report into Lindt siege is being handed down now. Usual live blogs for full coverage plus Four Corners. I expect that one is being done by Sarah Ferguson.

Barney in Go Dau
Guest

socrates @ #1812 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:41 am

Victoria
Exactly! Fighting the fire with one hand while fueling it with the other. Why won’t it go out?

Besides the major arms deals we have the smaller ones that help to perpetuate conflicts in countries to levels that they otherwise would not come near.

And of course the worlds major arms dealers are also the permanent members of the UN security council.

Conflict of interest anyone?

bemused
Guest

socrates @ #1802 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:28 am

Victoria
You are correct. I think it is obvious that ISIL recruiters have learnt to target the mentally ill and the marginalised. There have also been quite a few with criminal records. Several of the Australians who died fighting in Syria had convictions for drug crimes and had been in criminal gangs. Nobody with a stable job and a family they love wants to become a terrorist. The recruiters should be jailed for life, as they are effectively organising acts of murder. Some have kept recruiting while in jail.
Of course, that is all just as much a perversion of Islam as it is of any other religion. And there will always be some such vulnerable people in our society, hence this will not stop. Hence my view that Saudi Arabia and Wahabism, the source of the extremism, needs to be held accountable. I am not the only person who holds that view.
http://www.salon.com/2016/01/06/saudi_arabia_funds_and_exports_islamic_extremism_the_truth_behind_the_toxic_u_s_relationship_with_the_theocratic_nation/

Dead right!
Wahabbist money is flooding into Indonesia and funding extremist Mosques and Madrassas. The results are already visible and ominous.

bemused
Guest

zoomster @ #1801 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 9:26 am

Victoria
Yes – we have to be careful about looking at the excuses for behaviour rather than the reasons for it.
At the moment, if you’re a disaffected young person (usually male) who hates yourself and the world, and is determined on suicide, you can guarantee yourself screeds of post-suicide attention if you take several others with you whilst shouting “Allah Akbar!” – even if you’ve never seen the inside of a mosque.
(I don’t know about others, but when I was an angst ridden teenager, all suicidal fantasies included me hovering over my funeral listening to the eulogies….)
Martin Bryant was white and well off. We can’t explain him away as a terrorist. But the body count he left behind was still real.
We need to work out how much these terrorists acts are due to radical Islam per se and how much are due to attention seekers with a death wish – because if we get the causes wrong, we’ll be looking at the wrong solutions.

Martin Bryant had very low intelligence and seemed to have been shunned by his peers as an ‘outsider’. No excuse for anything, but it adds to an understanding that could prevent further such occurrences.

guytaur
Guest

srpeatling: Shorten mentions Keating getting Mabo through Parliament. Worth listening to him field talkback callers in ’93.
youtube.com/watch?v=iad9R1…

https://twitter.com/srpeatling/status/867171771484524544

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