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Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from Essential Research this week brings the pollster back into line with the 53-47 consensus.

As I should have reported yesterday, this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has ticked in favour of the Coalition, who gain a point on the primary vote at the expense of Labor to lead 38% to 36%, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, as the Greens rise a point to 11% and One Nation falls one to 5%. Most of the supplementary questions this week are less clearly framed than they might be, but a question on the Trans-Pacific Partnership suggests respondents are less inclined to think it stacked in favour of big business than they were when the United States was on board. Another question repeats an exercise from October last year in gauging opinion on major policy decisions of recent decades, finding overwhelming support for compulsory superannuation and Medicare, pluralities in favour of the GST, free trade agreements, floating of the dollar and reducing car manufacturing subsidies, and better-than-usual responses to privatisation, breaking in favour of Qantas and against Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

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victoria
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Note: new thread

grimace
Guest

The gerbils ate part of my comment above.

I did have that in 2017 alone Australia is going to add 2.2GW of new utility-scale renewable energy. That’s projects with FID, grid connection approval and currently under construction. That doesn’t include grid scale capacity that will be added in the remaining 4 years between 2018 – 2021 before the hypothetical gas plant is built and generates its first kWh. It also doesn’t include embedded generation >100kWh that will be added in that time.

There will simply be no market for new utility-scale gas/coal baseload.

grimace
Guest

player one @ #744 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 5:45 pm

cud chewer @ #742 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 5:36 pm

P1 at least I’m not going to read thr Finkel report and automatically conclude that we must build baseload gas. But I’m certain you will.

If you had read the report BiGD linked to, you would see they are proposing …. guess what? Using more gas!
But I’m forgetting … you don’t read reports, do you? So I’m guessing you won’t be reading the Finkel report either?

I’m following these reports (Finkel etc) and note their history of getting predictions badly wrong.

P1, you strike me as someone who is not particularly numerate, who has no experience of large scale construction projects and doesn’t have a background dealing in or with engineering or accounting.

The reason that I and others disagree with you on gas is that it’s going to take 4 – 6 years before any new large-scale gas project generates it’s first kWh. For the sake of discussion, let’s use 5 years as an average.

In that 5 years, based on historical averages, Australia is going to add about 4.2 GW of small-scale solar (70MW per month of systems 100kW that will be installed in that time.

Aside from peaking capacity, of which we already have plenty, the business model for new large-scale baseload gas (or coal) will have been smashed before the first new plant comes online.

Norwester
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libertarian unionist @ #878 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 1:06 am

In other news, nothing crazy yet today from Trump as we go past 11am DC time.
He’s not out of bed yet?

Hopefully he is being told a few home truths. Of course being the narcissist that he is, they who tell him will just go into the ‘to be fired’ basket.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

On that note, night all.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

In other news, nothing crazy yet today from Trump as we go past 11am DC time.
He’s not out of bed yet?

Norwester
Guest

In other news, nothing crazy yet today from Trump as we go past 11am DC time.

imacca
Guest

Ye gads. Downer has just nothing to say that isnt simple fluff and bullshit. Been given her lines and no mental flexibility to even modify them depending on what she’s asked. This is really and IPA fembot drone having to articulate while cut off from the remote control signal is it??

Norwester
Guest

Interesting to see if Trump’s idiocy motivates a few more young UK people to get orf their arses and vote.

Norwester
Guest

For some reason this UK election is starting to remind me of the last QLD one. One dare not hope too much but there has been one hell of a *narrowing*

imacca
Guest

Watching Downer on the Drum. Idiocy locked well into their genetics i think.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

CC,

Right now we are see loadability margins of about 3 GW.

How this changes in the future depends on how the future turns out… 🙂

cud chewer
Guest

No results you can share on transients? Just wanted to get a feel for scale.

bemused
Guest

libertarian unionist @ #867 Saturday, June 3, 2017 at 12:01 am

Thanks bemused, I’m on a new machine, need to reinstall all the bells and whistles…

If I want to indent, I painstakingly type out the html.
If there are any square brackets in text being quoted, quite common in wikipedia articles, something does a dummy spit. Not sure if it is CCCP or Crikey
Life was much simpler when square brackets would do indents.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

I’d love to see the rest of that. It raises the question. Does the peak power needed for frequency control depend on the particular event or can you predict how much power is enough?

We scan operating conditions for critical times or times of system stress, then apply the top few credible contingencies to the system (separately, as in N-1) and look as frequency response and voltage transient effects. We do this for systematically over a range of conditions, i.e. different penetrations of renewables, different controllers on he non-synchronous generators, with/without synchronous condensers and STACOMs… and most importantly, for different dispatch constraints on operating reserves (mimicking FCAS) and synchronous inertia.

I think the fellow in charge of the stability assessments ran over 2 million transient assessments on a model with >100 generating units!

Norwester
Guest

confessions @ #864 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 11:55 pm

There will be worldwide reaction to Trump’s Paris accord declaration.

There HAS been worldwide reaction to Trump’s Paris accord declaration.

Yes poorly worded by me. I meant not just today’s reactions but the possible boycotts tariffs sanctions and loss of business that will follow.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Thanks bemused, I’m on a new machine, need to reinstall all the bells and whistles…

cud chewer
Guest

FWIW, the studies we’ve just finished show the NEM can handle about 65% non-synchronous renewables with the current state-of-the-art wind farm controllers, assuming they are in frequency responsive mode.

I’d love to see the rest of that. It raises the question. Does the peak power needed for frequency control depend on the particular event or can you predict how much power is enough?

bemused
Guest

libertarian unionist @ #863 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 11:45 pm

{And I would have thought the cost of connecting to an existing grid would vary depending on distance to the grid.}
Of course it does, but transformers and protection equipment are a large discrete cost regardless of your location.

Square brackets are unhelpful. They don’t do anything except cause problems for anyone using CCCP.
I was counting that as part of the windfarm and the cost of connection being the transmission lines and any connecting equipment at the grid end.

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