Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter


Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

With much of the country enjoying a long weekend, a status quo reading from Essential Research is the only new voting intention result for the week.


The Guardian reports that the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, which has been delayed a day due to Monday’s public holiday, has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, after it fell from 53-47 last week. Primary votes will have to wait until later today. UPDATE: Full report here, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 8% (up two).

Other reported findings focus on terrorism and a low emissions target, with the former including a 47% approval rating for Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the terror threat, compared with 56% in October 2015, and 24% disapproval, compared with 17%; 74% saying the terrorism threat in Australia has risen over recent years; 46% saying the government should be spending more on counter-terrorism, compared with only 9% for less; and 44% saying there should be more restrictions on rights and freedoms to combat terrorism, with only 12% saying current restrictions go too far, and 19% believing the current balance is right.

With respect to carbon emissions, 44% favour a low emissions target and 20% an emissions intensity scheme, with 36% opting for don’t know; and 27% saying capture and storage from coal generation should count as a low emissions energy source, compared with 29% who disagreed.

Also this week:

• The Australia Institute has published a ReachTEL poll of the Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong, which after incorporating prompting responses for the undecided finds primary votes of Liberal 48.9% (58.2% at the election), Labor 25.5% (19.8%) and Greens 17.0% (18.9%), and a respondent-allocated two-party result of 56-44 to Liberal (63.3-36.7). The poll also records a 77.9-15.5 split in favour of a clean energy target,

• Western Australian Senator Chris Back has announced he will retire as of the end of July, leaving a vacancy for a three-year term that runs to mid-2019. Andrew Burrell of The Australian identifies two possible successors: Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, who is rated the front-runner; and Matt O’Sullivan, chief operating officer of Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme, who ran unsuccessfully in the southern Perth seat of Burt at last year’s federal election.


We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola


Leave a comment

1,379 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

  1. Ray (UK)

    Latest YouGov info on voter turnout in the UK election (their estimates)

    Youth turnout nowhere near as high as had been suggested:-

    turnout estimates by age group:

    18-19: 57%
    20-24: 59%
    25-29: 64%
    30-39: 61%
    40-49: 66%
    50-59: 71%
    60-69: 77%
    70+ : 84%

  2. phoenixRED

    Russians May Have Been Trying To Delete Voters As Hack To Help Trump Much Worse Than Reported

    The hack into US voting systems by Russia was worse than reported. Thirty-nine states were compromised, and the Obama administration worried that the Kremlin’s goal was to delete voter registration information.


  3. phoenixRED

    Trump’s Lawyer Brags That He Got Bharara Fired Because He Was Going to “Get” Trump

    President Trump’s personal lawyer Mark Kasowitz bragged that he got New York U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara fired, warning Trump, “This guy is going to get you.”

    Firing people because it seems likely they’re going to get you is becoming a recurring theme under President Trump. It’s not just the ethics issues, but if this report is accurate, it also adds weight to Comey’s testimony as it shows that Trump uses firing as a way to stop investigations.


  4. phoenixRED

    Deputy AG Breaks With Trump And Says There’s No Good Cause To Fire Robert Mueller

    While testifying before a Senate subcommittee, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein rejected the idea being floated by Trump allies of firing the special counsel by saying there is no good cause to fire Robert Mueller.

    The swift reaction from Congress to the idea of firing Mueller is a warning to Trump that he should not go there, but this president seems to view warnings as challenges, so if Trump decides that he wants to be rid of Mueller, he will have to fire Rosenstein too.


  5. phoenixRED

    Sessions Sinks Trump By Confirming That Comey Did Not Want To Be Left Alone With Him

    While being questioned by Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), Sessions said, “I believe he said something. I believe it was the next day where he said something that expressed concern about being left alone with the President.”


  6. phoenixRED

    Jaws Drop As GOP Senator Compares Meeting Russians To Bumping Into Somebody At The Grocery Store

    Even for Republicans who are trying to brush off the Russia scandal, Risch’s statement was a new low.


  7. phoenixRED

    Jeff Sessions Tried To Parse His Russia Story And It Blew Up In His Face

    Attorney General Jeff Sessions didn’t deny that he met with Russians, but said that he didn’t recall meeting with Russians. Sessions also denied colluding with Russians specifically but didn’t deny working with Russia on the campaign.


  8. antonbruckner11

    Lots of interesting reading in the Reactionary Press this morning (cos they have better contacts in the Liberal Party). Coorey made two points that made me laugh:
    1. Tones still hasn’t read the Finkel Report. Thanks Tones.
    2. It won’t be possible to just lift the base whatever from 0.6 per tonne to 0.7 to include clean coal because the size of certificates under the base are graded. So clean coal, compared with solar, win etc would only get tiny certificates. That means, I assume, that Malcolm will have to insert a huge distinct fudge to get clean coal included in the policy. So he won’t find going full-weasel easy to disguise.

  9. Socrates

    Morning all. In NSW the government has “no choice” but to either bulldoze a national park or 460 homes. They have “no choice” because they ordered planners to ignore a rail alternative that was at least $5 billioon cheaper and would save Wooloongong residents 30 minutes getting to Sydney.

    Transport planning as I knew it is dead in Australia. It has become a political contest to pork barrell and shovel billions to finance firms via PPP deals.

  10. Socrates

    As I said the other night before turning off QandA, the Finkel report is a farce. It is like trying to write a policy to prosecute child abusers that would still be acceptable to the catholic church. The mad monk will not be happy till there is a coal power plant in every suburb (except his own).

  11. lizzie


    Tones still hasn’t read the Finkel Report. Thanks Tones.

    Remember when Abbott was being praised, in reverent tones, for being a “Rhodes scholar” and therefore worthy of leading the nation?

    Not even funny, now.

  12. zoidlord


    LNP cannot do “planning” period, because vested interests.

  13. markjs

    from previous thread…

    ABC Breakfast/AM has now had two days of discussions about major Climate Change/Energy policy which has national significance ..without a SINGLE interview with a Labor MP/Senator..

    ..ABC bias? ..what ABC bias?!!

  14. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Work you way through this lot!

    The yawning gap between rich and poor in Australia should be formally tracked by the nation’s prime economic review body, the Productivity Commission, according to a Labor senator who has drafted legislation to bring it about. Mark Kenny writes that t he proposal would ensure that any negative impacts on the poor arising from government policies are specifically measured and taken into account in program design.
    Michael Pascoe on the failure of the AUD to fall in value despite the interest rate increases in the US.
    Clancy Yates concludes that house is worth a house (if you’re living in it).
    Cancers are responsible for more years of life lost than any other health condition, the latest Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has confirmed.
    A rising star in the NSW Labor Party star goes down after revelations of large donations from a foreign gold dealer.
    Massola reports that Turnbull could lose his leadership over climate and energy policy. (And I did have mid-June 2017 in the sweep!)
    Phil Coorey on the Coalition Party room meeting. “It’s a slaughter!” Google.
    Dennis Shanahan says that Turnbull has “burnt Shorten’s olive branch to a crisp”. Google.
    Mark Kenny sniffs some leadershit in the air.

  15. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    David Crowe in The Australian writes that angry Coalition MPs have warned Malcolm Turnbull against embracing a clean energy target that hits consumers with higher prices, in a revolt against a sweeping plan to shift the economy to wind and solar power. Google.
    Crowe goes further and describes how the Coalition has put its dysfunction on display yet again. Google.
    The Finkel Report has little if anything to do with the real issues around climate change, it is all about satisfying the Coalition party room writes Mungo MacCallum.
    Josh Butler wonders if Abbott has actually read the Finkel report!
    Support for Gonski 2.0 is increasing. Shorten will need to be careful with how Labor handles it.
    From the incomprehensible “covfefe” to a post labelling fired FBI director James Comey a “leaker”, US President Donald Trump’s tweets would be preserved as presidential records if a Democratic congressman’s proposed act becomes law.
    And Democrats are set to cast a protest vote in droves against US President Donald Trump’s proposed arms sale to Saudi Arabia, a move that may not prevent the deal from going through but nonetheless represents an unprecedented rebuke of Saudi Arabia’s activities in war-torn Yemen.
    In Trump’s America a thick-headed man’s incredibly thin skin is threatening fee speech.
    Approved on the basis of Howard’s “back of an envelope” analysis the F35 Joint Strike Fighter is STILL in trouble!

  16. BK

    Section 3 . . .

    Shopping centre landlords are squeezing shop owners too much.
    The United States is “not winning” the war against Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis told Congress on Tuesday.
    Unsurprisingly the psychiatrist in the middle of the Lindt siege has got the boot. It begs the question of what about the degree of reliance on him by the police.
    This psychologist explains the role of male shame in cases where the acts of individuals are branded as terrorism.
    Security expert Clive Williams writes about the changing face of counter-terrorism in the UK and France.
    Turnbull’s tougher laws aimed at terror suspects continue, a dangerous trend which offends freedoms in wider society and from which only deskbound bureaucrats will profit, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark. He’s just sniffing the glue of populism and fear he says.
    A third Melbourne man has been charged with supplying the shotgun used in the fatal apartment siege in Brighton. Good stuff!
    Human Services Minister Alan Tudge’s decision to release a list of suburbs later dubbed “dole bludger hotspots” has been described as “worse than poverty porn”. On Tuesday, News Corp reported the top “bludger” hotspots in Australia – described as a “list of shame” – based on data provided by the Turnbull government.
    Michael West tells us that the Adani Group has become embroiled in a corruption scandal in South Africa after a series of leaked emails revealed the Indian power company was in talks to do a weapons deal with the controversial Gupta family.

  17. BK

    Section 4 . . .

    Dennis Shanahan writes that police are still canvassing for new evidence and allegations against George Pell in relation to sexual abuse claims almost a month after Victorian Police Commissioner Graham Ashton said a decision on laying charges would be made “fairly quickly”. Google.
    Kristina Keneally does it again with a great piece on child sexual abuse within the Catholic church.
    The Ten Network is right on the precipice.
    The conservative attacks on higher education continue, with the poorest Australians being asked to contribute the most, write Richard Hil and Kristen Lyons.
    Government debt has just clicked over the half trillion mark. It is of the government’s own making.
    Terminally ill patients will get faster access to medicinal marijuana and be able to import their own personal supply after the Greens teamed up with Labor and One Nation to deliver a shock Senate vote to kill off government restrictions. Hunt is furious!
    Could you pass the proposed English language Australian citizenship test?
    National Mental Health Commissioner Lucinda Brogden says employers have a legal responsibility to provide a workplace that is both physically and psychologically safe. But, she says, too many employers offer “positive extras” and shirk the hard stuff.
    Our prisons are becoming more and more full. Why?

  18. C@tmomma

    Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Remember when Abbott was being praised, in reverent tones, for being a “Rhodes scholar” and therefore worthy of leading the nation?

    Remember also when it was discovered that Dyson Heydon was on the panel that awarded the Rhodes Scholarship to Toned Abs?

    Also remember it was at this time that Abbott had to become an Australian Citizen to get it?

    I also remember that Abbott was renowned for getting other students, maybe even his best mate, Greg Sheridan, to write his essays for him while he run student politics at Sydney Uni.

    Finally, don’t forget this intellectual colossus never got very good results at Oxford when he went there on the Rhodes Scholarship.

    In other words, Tony Abbott is a fraud and a dud. Always has been. Always will be. And a Reactionary Conservative Monarchist.

  19. BK

    Section 5 . . .

    The rise and risk of “early inheritance syndrome”.
    The director of the Western Australian division of the Liberal Party Andrew Cox has quit after presiding over the party’s loss of government in March.
    Labor has asked for an investigation of the government’s small business roadshow program, amid allegations public servants are being required to attend partisan political events held in predominantly Coalition electorates. Katy Gallagher is on the job.

  20. C@tmomma

    ABC Breakfast/AM has now had two days of discussions about major Climate Change/Energy policy which has national significance ..without a SINGLE interview with a Labor MP/Senator..

    ..ABC bias? ..what ABC bias?!!

    You’ve seen the ABC ratings. Falling like a stone. Labor is going around the ABC.

  21. Greensborough Growler

    Seems Massola finally found where the real “leadershit’ crisis is.

  22. lizzie

    This is blatant coal industry promotion within the language test. Does this mean that only supporters of the coal industry are considered ‘patriots’?

    By carefully preplanning projects, implementing pollution control measures, monitoring the effects of mining and rehabilitating mined areas, the coal industry minimises the impact on the neighbouring community, the immediate environment and long-term land capability.


  23. Socrates

    I can but agree with the comments on Abbott. As a thinker, he made a good boxer. He is still fighting anyone without the same delusions as he.

    The story on Simon Zhou and Labor accepting Chinese lobbyists money is annoying though. How far ahead would Shorten be in the polls if not for the corrupt baggage of NSW Labor dragging the side down once again? Turnbull would have lost the last election without their help.

  24. poroti

    A lot of similarities with our “debt and deficit disaster” years.

    Yes this really is the end of Tory austerity – because it was never about economics in the first place

    Reducing the UK’s deficit was a necessity. Cutting it without regard for the state of the overall economy was unscientific stupidity if not wanton vandalism

    Seven years of Tory lectures that eradicating the deficit for the good of future generations is paramount suddenly fall silent…………… It became clear within a year of George Osborne’s 2010 “emergency budget”, which forced through huge cuts in capital budgets and an intense squeeze on Whitehall departments and welfare spending, that the austerity medicine was hurting, not helping.

    The economy was flatlining, teetering on the verge of recession.


  25. lizzie

    A question that springs to mind:
    Should all potential MPs take the Oz language test? Currently, some don’t have much comprehension skill, apparently.

  26. Socrates

    Thanks. That statement on coal mining is a blatant lie. The mining industry is notorious for failing to remediate former coal mines. Mining departments are notorious for failing to enforce conditions on them. Try to find the site of any former open cut coal mine that has been returned to agricultural use? I am not aware of any.

  27. poroti

    The thing to remember about Tones’ Rhodes Scholarship is that it was awarded under the old criteria. Academic performance was only one of 5-6 criteria.

  28. lizzie

    I have just listened to a recording of Frydenberg on QandA. Never mind all the rubbish he speaks in that artificial, soothing tone. He said “Nucular”. That’s enough for me to lose respect for his clarity of thought.

  29. Player One

    From last night …

    son of sam i am @ #1747 Tuesday, June 13, 2017 at 11:37 pm

    Can the rest of you stop feeding the P1 troll – fuck off to an energy blog where some posters actually know what they are talking about and stick to the polls

    The Finkel report was discussed in cabinet yesterday, is the biggest political news of the past week, and could lead to a split in the LNP. And not only do you not see the relevance of it, you also contribute nothing to the conversation except insults.

    Hmmm. Which of us is a troll, I wonder?

  30. Player One

    cud chewer @ #1755 Wednesday, June 14, 2017 at 12:26 am

    What you’re actually doing is saying lets cut CO2 emissions, but not if it costs more to do so (this is within the context of your own broken assumptions I should add).

    Another misrepresentation, CC? You really do have a fertile imagination – shame you can’t seem to use it for something useful.

  31. Socrates

    I am aware of the old criteria (a friend got to the final round of judging back then). Academic merit was still the FIRST criteria. All the serious applicants had first class honours PLUS involvement in other activities. Abbott was a huge aberation. I would love to see stats on how many winners in the past fifty years had marks as low as Abbott’s. I expect there would be few if any.

  32. poroti

    “All the serious applicants had first class honours ”
    Boy he must have had some mighty helpful friends in high places.

  33. Greensborough Growler

    Player One @ #33 Wednesday, June 14th, 2017 – 8:17 am

    cud chewer @ #1755 Wednesday, June 14, 2017 at 12:26 am

    What you’re actually doing is saying lets cut CO2 emissions, but not if it costs more to do so (this is within the context of your own broken assumptions I should add).

    Another misrepresentation, CC? You really do have a fertile imagination – shame you can’t seem to use it for something useful.

    Maybe he uses his fertile imagination to cultivate his roses.

  34. Vogon Poet

    Mark, the ABC was giving balanced​ coverage this morning, they had reps from both LNP factions.

  35. zoomster

    Zhou (the Labor ‘rising star’ referred to in the smh article linked by BK) was seventh on the NSW Senate ticket.


    Which means he was nobody.

    Usually, Labor party Senate tickets work out like this: 1 & 2, regarded as shoe ins, allocated according to factional deals; 3, a slight chance, where you put someone who has potential but still has a few rough edges (Gillard was 3rd on the ticket in 1996); 4th, usually where you put someone you want to convince you’re taking seriously but who you want to shut up and go away; anything after that, a whip around the office to see if anyone can be bothered.

    7th isn’t where you put rising stars.

  36. lizzie

    Public will soon be able to peruse more than 50 of Palin’s notebooks in which many Monty Python sketches were written


  37. booleanbach

    I realise that Tony does not read very much, but maybe he should read this:

  38. Greensborough Growler

    zoomster @ #38 Wednesday, June 14th, 2017 – 8:26 am

    Zhou (the Labor ‘rising star’ referred to in the smh article linked by BK) was seventh on the NSW Senate ticket.


    Which means he was nobody.

    Usually, Labor party Senate tickets work out like this: 1 & 2, regarded as shoe ins, allocated according to factional deals; 3, a slight chance, where you put someone who has potential but still has a few rough edges (Gillard was 3rd on the ticket in 1996); 4th, usually where you put someone you want to convince you’re taking seriously but who you want to shut up and go away; anything after that, a whip around the office to see if anyone can be bothered.

    7th isn’t where you put rising stars.


    No matter how you slice it, it’s still an embarrassment.

  39. booleanbach

    Virginia used her ‘in the interests of balance’ frame this morning to say that the ALP are also conflicted over Finkel.

  40. confessions


    As with Insiders, I wonder if Labor’s non appearance on ABC RN is down to refusing invitations to appear or not being invited to start with?

  41. lizzie

    Catherine King MP‏Verified account @CatherineKingMP · 16h16 hours ago

    Greg Hunt on @SkyNewsAust suggesting terminally ill equivalent to drug smugglers. Disgraceful stigmatisation re medicinal cannabis #auspol

  42. Doyley


    The story in Fairfax today re Simon Zhou is annoying for a number of reasons.

    Firstly it is annoying because Fairfax is focusing solely on donations made to labor completely ignoring the huge amounts donated to the liberal party.

    Also, the only reason Fairfax is reporting on this is because the donations have been properly declared and sure there for all to see. No mention of that. How forensic does a political party whether it be labor, greens, liberals, Nationals or any other have to be in checking the background of donations made through Australian citizens ? I am sure atm all parties and individuals within politics would have a few donors they have no idea of their history/ background. Yet it seems it is only labor under the pump.

    On the 6 June Shorten wrote to the PM seeking his support for a bipartisan referral to the parliament committee on security and finance to review the current situation. The deputy chair of that committee, Anthony Byrne ( labor ) has been out this morning calling for the liberals to support Bill Shorten and labor on this. Turnbull is not committing. Labor is the only party with legislation currently before the Parliament to ban foreign donations, introduce real time reporting of donations and increasing transparency by reducing to $10000 the level at which full disclosure of the donors name is required. So far the government has done nothing.

    Yet, it is the labor party under scrutiny and not the liberals. That is disappointing but not a surprise.

    Shorten and labor have been proactive on this and the calls from Anthony Byrne this morning supporting the demand from Shorten for a full and transparent investigation is again showing labor out in front on this issue. Yet, it still continues to be all about donations to the labor party. Nothing but politics from Fairfax atm.

    Cheers and a great day to you.

  43. zoomster

    …and basically, if someone’s been put at fourth spot, you know they’re going nowhere (I’m sure there are exceptions). You don’t want potential candidates for real positions to have C.Vs with too many ‘failed to get elected’ notations. So someone at 7 isn’t regarded as a rising star by anybody.

  44. Player One

    booleanbach @ #42 Wednesday, June 14, 2017 at 8:31 am

    Virginia used her ‘in the interests of balance’ frame this morning to say that the ALP are also conflicted over Finkel.

    They sure are – they don’t know whether to laugh or cry!

  45. zoomster


    I’m not saying it isn’t, I’m simply trying to give people some perspective.

    The office boy being corrupt is still concerning, but it is important to note that he’s just an office boy.

  46. C@tmomma

    I’d say 7th is where you put someone when you are trying to ingratiate your party with a particular community because you didn’t win Bennelong as they voted for John Alexander and his table tennis tables again! 😉

  47. zoomster

    …and no mention of Labor losing a donation of $400k because they didn’t do what the donor wanted.

Leave a comment


https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/06/14/essential-research-52-48-labor-9/ == https://www.crikey.com.au/free-trial/==https://www.crikey.com.au/subscribe/

Show popup

Telling you what the others don't. FREE for 21 days.