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The first Newspoll result in three weeks, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up two). The two leaders have recorded identical personal ratings of 32% approval and 55% disapproval, which in Malcolm Turnbull’s case means a three point drop on approval and a one point increase on disapproval, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one and up two. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 44-31, compared with 45-33 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1786.

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1,032 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

  1. Sohar

    Turnbull and Shorten have the same approval-disapproval, 32-55. A first?

  2. Desert Qlder

    Nice to see that further incremental movement of Labor’s primary vote up to 37%.

    But people are moving away from Labor to the Greens and minor parties of course, under the unpopular leader Bill Shorten.

  3. JOHN BOY

    Sohar, I doubt that 32/55 will bother Shirten much,
    Fizzer McSpivfefe on the other hand….

  4. antonbruckner11

    Stephen Sedley, a great judge and academic recently wrote this in the London Review of Books. I think it encapsulates the Westminster tradition very well:

    [For more than three hundred years the UK’s constitution has functioned remarkably well on the basis of the historic compromise reached in the course of the 17th century. The 1689 Bill of Rights forbade the impeachment or questioning of parliamentary debates and proceedings ‘in any court or place out of Parlyament’. Parliament in return has made it a rule, enforced until now by the speakers of both Houses, that it will not interfere with the decisions of the courts, whether by anticipating their judgments or by attacking them. If Parliament does not like what the courts do, it changes the law. The sovereignty of Parliament as the final source of law and the sovereignty of the courts in interpreting and enforcing the law are the twin pillars on which democracy and the rule of law in the UK rest. It was the courts themselves which, in the 19th century, extended the privilege of Parliament to cover any fair and full report of what was said there even if it was libellous.]

    But, of course, Uhlmann (that intellectual giant) knows better.

  5. guytaur

    For those claiming a Constitutional crisis. I don’t see how the court can not do due process.

    If after a court case a guilty verdict resulted in three by elections on the very narrow sub judice scandalize court contempt thats just consequence. The crisis is undermining legitimacy of the courts.

  6. Question

    Confused post DQ.

  7. Vogon Poet

    Desert, people are not moving to the greens from Labor.
    They’re stagnant on @10%

  8. Jack A Randa

    Q, DQ’s post may be confused or there may just be some sarcasm in the last bit. D’ya think?

  9. Desert Qlder

    Question & Vogon Poet.

    Tongue firmly in cheek.

  10. ratsak

    may just be some sarcasm
    more than a pinch…

  11. Question

    Of course Jack. How humourless of me.

  12. Vogon Poet

    DQ, one Rex is enough.
    Why isn’t there a sarcastic font..

  13. Yabba88

    DessertQlda, you need a sarcasm indicator in your post, or a Rex pointer, to avoid a load of excrement being dumped upon you.

  14. bemused

    From previous thread.

    bemused
    #784 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:57 pm

    confessions @ #773 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    So no change in Newspoll, and all that AGW denying blather about electricity supply has fallen on deaf ears.
    You’d think this mob would catch a clue.

    Sigh…
    Since the numpty doesn’t read anything I post, I have been hoping someone else would point out to her that reducing GHGE from power generation is inextricably linked to reducing GHGE overall. Further, unreliable power is unacceptable so renewables need to be engineered into the system to replace coal.
    You can’t blithely talk about reducing GHGE without looking at how it will be done, and also how it will be done to reliably meet demand for power.

  15. JOHN BOY

    Tongue firmly in cheek.

    Nice one.

  16. Henry

    james j been gazumped?
    oh well Abbott and his loons will be further emboldened.
    good times ahead.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tF9FDQrSBI

  17. grimace

    PHON on 11%, what is the basis of their preference split?

  18. antonbruckner11

    That’s a pretty horrific net-sat for Malcolm isn’t it? The more people see of Malcolm, the more they realise he is just nasty and weak. They’ve given up on him. Shorten’s is pretty much irrelevant. The Lib submarine is now resting on the bottom. Now just a question of how long the air lasts.

  19. bemused

    antonbruckner11 @ #18 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    That’s a pretty horrific net-sat for Malcolm isn’t it? The more people see of Malcolm, the more they realise he is just nasty and weak. They’ve given up on him. Shorten’s is pretty much irrelevant. The Lib submarine is now resting on the bottom. Now just a question of how long the air lasts.

    Nice metaphor.

  20. grimace

    If it wasn’t for the dead weight of Bill Shorten Labor would be on track to win 195 seats in the HOR.

  21. guytaur

    A 11

    Another negative poll will do nothing to increase unity in the LNP

  22. antonbruckner11

    Grimace: Last election’s? Hard to believe that Turnbull will match that at the next one!

  23. ratsak

    AB11

    Again, this is what I despise most about these grubs.

    These conventions have developed over centuries. They work.

    Yet these scumbags with the temerity (or is it just delusion) to call themselves conservative will happily tear down these pillars of our society for a bit of a short term popularity hit from the most ignorant members of the electorate.

    Scumbag really doesn’t get near the depths of godawfulness of these maggots. For Uhlmann to think somehow they are victims and we should join in solidarity with them just shows what an empty headed dolt he is.

    They say love is blind. In Brodtmann’s case it must be deaf, dumb and stupid as well.

  24. confessions

    oh well Abbott and his loons will be further emboldened.
    good times ahead.

    But not for the country. Abbottobads driving this govt on climate change policy means more of this bullshit deflection debate on electricity security rather than how we as a nation can efficiently reduce our GHGEs.

  25. guytaur

    Ratsak

    What you say about Uhlman is true. The fact he tweeted it on Friday morning does not change that.

  26. citizen

    Oz headline tells it as is is – no fudging with the usual “Turnbull still more popular PM” headline.

    Newspoll: Turnbull fails to turn corner
    Newspoll results – exclusive to The Australian.
    9:30PMDAVID CROWE
    Labor has cemented its gains in voter support after weeks of argument over school funding and energy security.

  27. Fulvio Sammut

    Roopy wants Tony back.

    That is all.

  28. guytaur

    Confessions.

    Electing the climate deniers was bad for the country. Hopefully bad polls will see more opposition in the Senate and an early election called.

    Thats the only way I see to reversing the damage.

  29. grimace

    @ AB

    Making the generous assumption that PHON will be around at the next election AND they actually poll 11% nationally, it’s probably more accurate to look at the flow of preferences in the more recent state elections.

    In the WA election it was ~57% to Liberal http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/03/initial-analysis-of-preferences-at-the-2017-western-australian-election.html

  30. confessions

    Newspoll: Turnbull fails to turn corner

    So the Oz is gunning for him. Not sure this is news after the last couple of weeks, but I’ll take it 🙂

  31. C@tmomma

    Tick tock. Tick tock. 🙂

  32. citizen

    This Newspoll will give the Greens food for thought about siding with the Coalition on education funding (Labor +1, Greens -1).

  33. confessions

    Guytaur:

    On the issue of AGW the Senate is even more in the camp of the denialists.

  34. ratsak

    Strange how we aren’t hearing so much about how Labor has been wedged by Conski 1.0 and how genius Trumble was with Labor-lite so that poor old Shorten was screwed and had no room to manoeuvre. I could have sworn Laura and the rest of the CPG told me it was all over for Bill and the magnificent real Brian Trumble would emerge as if from a chrysalis to dazzle us all with his wonderfulness.

  35. guytaur

    The stupitidy of Turnbull is that if he had taken on Abbott early he would have remained popular and been seen to have belief.

    Now he has had to do it anyway and voters see him as an empty vessel

  36. Fulvio Sammut

    Citizen, do you seriously believe the Greens are capable of learning anything?

  37. guytaur

    Confesions.

    Yes. However the Senate keeps rejecting most of the LNP legislation and that drip drip drip is having its effect.

  38. William Bowe

    In the WA election it was ~57% to Liberal

    Which is more than it was at the federal election (50.47%).

  39. bemused

    william bowe @ #38 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:28 pm

    In the WA election it was ~57% to Liberal

    Which is more than it was at the federal election (50.47%).

    Would that be explicable by them really being down to their hard core in the State Election?

  40. William Bowe

    I tended to think it was because they were directing preferences to them.

  41. bemused

    william bowe @ #40 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:32 pm

    I tended to think it was because they were directing preferences to them.

    How effective was their messaging on that including distribution of HTVs?

  42. zoomster

    Ratsak

    This is all part of Turnbull’s cunning plan. He has Shorten exactly where he wants him.

  43. ratsak

    The stupitidy of Turnbull is that if he had taken on Abbott early he would have remained popular and been seen to have belief.

    Trumble had one chance. He simply had to say to the nutjobs and Nats (distinction without a difference alert) that carbon, SSM and a few other iconic issues that he had used to create the myth of him believing in shit were non-negotiable. Those nutters had their chance and it was electoral poison.

    But Brian Trumble is more a hologram than a real person. Of course he squibbed it on day one. It might have taken the CPG a year to realise, but we here called it correctly on the day. He blew it and proved he was a weak and worthless worm. Nothing since has (or will) change that. He is what he is. And the very little he is isn’t worth a pinch of shit.

  44. C@tmomma

    Re The Greens.

    You try to give them good advice and they just see more benefit in mocking you than taking it. You’d think they’d have learned that’s a losing strategy by now.

    To the extent that, you hope they might have twigged that it would be in their interests, as an ostensibly Left of Centre political party, that they might get more mileage out of criticising the Right of Centre party whose policies are anathema to their voters, as opposed to training their guns on the other Left of Centre political party.

    Also, that it might be more advantageous to The Greens to work with Labor and the Cross Bench to get some wins against the government. Instead of getting in to bed with the government to ‘achieve’ an outcome that is inimical to their base’s beliefs.

    At least Pauline Hanson understands her little 10% of the world, aka her base, and she tends to them and panders to their desires.

    Which is why her party’s vote is on the up and The Greens’ is going down.

  45. William Bowe

    Not as effective as it might have been.

  46. ratsak

    This is all part of Turnbull’s cunning plan. He has Shorten exactly where he wants him.

    Laura? It’s not very professional to hijack Zoomster’s account you know Laura.

  47. C@tmomma

    But Brian Trumble is more a hologram than a real person. Of course he squibbed it on day one.

    The apocryphal tale is that Turnbull would not have had a ‘Day 1’ if he had not made a Faustian pact with Conservative Consigliores, Dutton and Cormann. So the squibbing was before Day 1. 🙂

  48. bemused

    william bowe @ #45 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:36 pm

    Not as effective as it might have been.

    Thanks William.

  49. Steve777

    The move of the One Nation vote from 9 to 11%, with a drop in ‘someone else’ by the same amount, is borderline statistically significant. The change in the Labor and Green primaries isn’t.

  50. C@tmomma

    Anyone checked the AFR for Tingle and Coorey’s take on the Newspoll numbers yet? I want to be amused. 🙂

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