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ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

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C@tmomma
Guest

“Kevin Rudd in a blue tie.”

😀

cud chewer
Guest

Well.. that was fun

David
Guest
I’m getting a little tired people using the excuse Julia Gillard Prime Ministership failed because she was a woman. Look at Anastacia Palaszczuk premier of Queensland who leads a Labor party united that is committed to her premiership. The fact remains is 1) Gillard challenged a first term Prime Minster 2) She called a snap election like Theresa May when she had a honeymoon period and it backfired bringing her government into minority. Malcolm Turnbull has done the same thing challenging Tony Abbott and these actions will always end in tears. Challenging a first term PM is going to lead… Read more »
Elaugaufein
Guest

Yeah, it’s certainly true there’s greater difference now than historically. The correlation between age and voting has intensified in both directions though which suggests it’s something more than that (you wouldn’t expect an increase in the conservativism of the older demographic just because young people are screwed). Though it’s possible the 2 things have independent causes.

Blanket Criticism
Guest

@Elaugaufein

Young people are leaning more to left lately than in previous decades because conservative economics has well and truly destroyed their future prospects.

Elaugaufein
Guest

AR
Man, I’d hate to be the staffer in covfefe duty. You’d be fired for doing your job correctly.

briefly
Guest

….for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by nine points. The tipping point, that is the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour, is now 47 – up from 34 at the start of the campaign…

briefly
Guest

Elaugaufein
Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:45 pm
Young people generally lean left vote wise, probably because they tend to be socially progressive and don’t have a big enough stake in the status quo to vote right to preserve what they’ve got. The thing is they don’t vote reliably while the older demographic that leans conservative do. The weird thing about this election in the UK which lacks compulsory voting, is that young people actually registered and turned out to vote in fairly high numbers.

this is fascinating…..

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

a r
Guest

confessions @ #599 Saturday, July 1st, 2017 – 11:52 pm

AR:

He’s probably saving the war card for closer to the 2020 election.

I like to think he was about to type “…Russia, just like when we defeated crooked Hillary and won the election together” and one of his staffers looked over his shoulder and had to wrestle his phone away from him before he could hit ‘Send’.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/06/30/reachtel-52-48-labor/comment-page-12/#comment-2604760

The all time high vote-share for a defeated party in UK elections is the 48.8% Labour polled at the 1951 election when the Attlee government was defeated. The Conservatives polled only 40.0% (But would have polled closer to Labour had 4 of their Ulster Unionist allies had received votes, instead of being elected uncontested). The Labour vote was disproportionately locked up in safe seats.

confessions
Guest

AR:

He’s probably saving the war card for closer to the 2020 election.

Elaugaufein
Guest

Young people generally lean left vote wise, probably because they tend to be socially progressive and don’t have a big enough stake in the status quo to vote right to preserve what they’ve got. The thing is they don’t vote reliably while the older demographic that leans conservative do. The weird thing about this election in the UK which lacks compulsory voting, is that young people actually registered and turned out to vote in fairly high numbers. I’d be interested to see if anyone’s tried to determine if it’s because Corbyn or because Brexit.

a r
Guest

Not that anyone noticed, with everything else that’s horribly wrong with Trump, but he started a thought some 16 hours ago:

The era of strategic patience with the North Korea regime has failed. That patience is over. We are working closely with….

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/880892632142143490

…and doesn’t seem like he’s ever going to bother finishing it.

briefly
Guest

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/30/britons-savings-at-record-low-as-household-incomes-drop-says-ons

This is also a significant factor in the revival of Labour’s vote …younger people, in work and paying their bills, moved to support Labour as their economic circumstances are squeezed.

Simon Katich
Guest

And here comes the double down…..
“Crazy Joe Scarborough and dumb as a rock Mika are not bad people, but their low rated show is dominated by their NBC bosses. Too bad!”

He cant help himself.

Simon Katich
Guest
Trumps is tweeting; **Numerous states are refusing to give information to the very distinguished VOTER FRAUD PANEL. What are they trying to hide?** Trump is trying to prove he would have won the popular vote if it wasnt for voter fraud and the Panel is asking States for all registered voters’ names, addresses, dates of birth, partial social security numbers, political party, a decade’s worth of voter history, information on felony convictions… Would you blame the States for not giving such data to Trumps henchmen? Delbert Hosemann, the Secretary of State of Mississippi, a republican, has said the panel can… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest
Just a random thought here. While its generally not a good idea to do anything that generates CO2, there is one exception and that’s generating energy from gasification of the waste from landfills (not new garbage, but stuff that’s already been landfilled). The reason is that if we don’t reclaim and reuse landfill, it will generate more CO2 equivalent just sitting there. I’ve been investigating landfill mining and reclamation technology. I do believe it will become economic to not only produce energy from landfill waste through gasification, but also reclaim metals and render the inorganic fraction into inert materials. The… Read more »
bemused
Guest

briefly @ #589 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:08 pm

Tom The First And Best
Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:00 pm
As the Brexit cliff draws near and the results for the economy become clearer to the population, the polls will continue to shift away from Brexit.

And power will go the party that most convincingly renounces Brexit.

Maybe Corbyn is just waiting for the full horror of Brexit to become apparent to enough of the electorate.
I base this on nothing more than supposition.

briefly
Guest

Darn
Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:07 pm

Labour’s vote must be one of the all-time highest losing shares. We should recognise that not only did Corbyn campaign for Labour, so did Theresa May. They both deserve some of the credit.

briefly
Guest

Tom The First And Best
Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:00 pm
As the Brexit cliff draws near and the results for the economy become clearer to the population, the polls will continue to shift away from Brexit.

And power will go the party that most convincingly renounces Brexit.

Darn
Guest
It’s Time Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 10:17 pm Of course BW’s solution to the inadequacies of Corbyn would be to not turn out to vote. BTW, when was it obvious that May was an utter disaster for Britain? When she called the election and held a substantial lead in the polls? At that time we all knew that May was going to win handsomely and increase her majority. How did that turn out? Blame Corbyn for it? I seem to recall Boerwar predicting that Labour under Corbyn was going to be all but wiped out and that May would… Read more »
briefly
Guest

Elaugaufein

Labour should adopt an overt counter-Brexit position. Were Labour to revoke its current position, the Tories will split into a UKIP-style rump and the modernisers. If Labour fail to do this the Euro-phobic minority in the Tory party will win the greatest Pyrrhic victory of modern times. These voices are not only hostile to Europe. They thoroughly despise Labour and will set out to both further entrench aristocratic privilege and dismantle what remains of social democracy in the UK.

cud chewer
Guest

Zoid,

Any reason given?

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

As the Brexit cliff draws near and the results for the economy become clearer to the population, the polls will continue to shift away from Brexit. A strongly helping the disadvantaged Labour party will be in a better position to take a less pro-Brexit position without loosing neglected regional voters.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/06/30/reachtel-52-48-labor/comment-page-12/#comment-2604746 The Scottish seats the Conservatives won were mostly historically won by the Conservative Party and a large part of the switch to the Tories was anti-EU former SNP voters deserting them over their Scottish Independence (many of these places had weaker Remain votes than the rest of Scotland) but not from the EU position and thus the Conservatives were in a a good place to pick up these votes. The Scottish Conservatives also have a better campaigner (Ruth Davison) as their leader, a significant factor in their victory. Corbyn picked up 6 seats in Scotland and is poised to… Read more »
bemused
Guest

c@tmomma @ #579 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 10:41 pm

Bemused,
Your mistake is thinking the Bore has a shred of credibility.
The sarcasm emoji would have come in handy, I think.

I refrain from using them for reasons mentioned earlier by CTar1

bemused
Guest
confessions @ #578 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 10:40 pm Like Bemused, it is a complete waste of time arguing with the Bore. At least Bemused is a genuine Labor supporter and not a thinly veiled reactionary like BW. Bemused is a misogynistic, abusive asshole who offers nothing of value to this site. Boerwar at least has intelligent observations, even though you might disagree with his views. I’d rather a hundred Boerwars over and above one single bmused. And it should be noted that William our host never treats Boerwar with the disdain and dismissal that he does with Bemused.… Read more »
Elaugaufein
Guest

Neither party can take a strongly anti-Brexit stance because doing so would effectively reform UKIP from whichever party that did. Labor would probably actually suffer more from such than the Tories at this point in time, because Labor has now done stupidly well in the pro-Remain city areas, so they’d gain little from such a stance while likely lose the non-City pro-Brexit seats from it. The Tories would at least stand to win some seats back by deciding to go anti-Brexit.

briefly
Guest
In England, both the Tories and Labour increased their share of the vote, a development that coincided with the collapse of UKIP support. The Tories were hoping that nearly all the UKIP not would shift their way. In the event, while a lot of UKIP voters aligned with the Tories, some reverted to Labour, who also benefited from a shift in support more generally among voters aged less than 40. The very great pity of UK politics is that both major parties are led by Europhobic reactionaries. It is very likely that both the Tories and Labour will split over… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

Bemused,
Your mistake is thinking the Bore has a shred of credibility.

The sarcasm emoji would have come in handy, I think. 🙂

confessions
Guest

Like Bemused, it is a complete waste of time arguing with the Bore.

At least Bemused is a genuine Labor supporter and not a thinly veiled reactionary like BW.

Bemused is a misogynistic, abusive asshole who offers nothing of value to this site. Boerwar at least has intelligent observations, even though you might disagree with his views. I’d rather a hundred Boerwars over and above one single bmused. And it should be noted that William our host never treats Boerwar with the disdain and dismissal that he does with Bemused. That alone should tell you something.

Elaugaufein
Guest
From what I remember of the numbers Corbyn wouldn’t win, an election tomorrow, but May wouldn’t be able to pass the resulting Queen’s Speech (which means May would certainly lose the election). Labor would end up in the awkward position of having to rely on the SNP without any kind of formal agreement at all (because they can’t be seen to be in alignment with an anti-Union party) and there’s a chance they’d have to rely on the Lib Dems too , who have explicitly said they won’t form a coalition with any party that isn’t anti-Brexit (though that might… Read more »
briefly
Guest
Socrates Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 10:30 pm In fact, it was the SDP clowns that cost Labor government, not Corbyn. They poor campaign and refusal to deal with Labor split the progressive vote in Scotland The refusal of Labour to do deals with the SNP helped Labour in England. There is no question about that. The SNP proposed a continuation of secessionist policy, a stance that shifted votes to the Tories and LDP in Scotland. Nationalist politics are a total blight on Labour and on modernist politics in general. In Scotland, unionist sentiment translated into support for the Tories,… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

If Corbyn had not been leader of the Labour Party, it is unlikely that there would have been an election as the Tories would not have seen the polls giving them such a high chance of a large majority. Then the Tories would still have their majority and not be subject to loosing office at short notice and facing an unfavourable election.

zoidlord
Guest

BW should stop sucking up a successful labor leader, have some common sense, because no party or leader will last a life time in power.

Blanket Criticism
Guest

I think you’re kidding yourself if you think Mays coalition will last five years. I’d be surprised if it lasts one.

Blanket Criticism
Guest

Yeah, because we all know opposition leaders tend to lead newly elected Prime Ministers in opinion polls. Oh wait, that’s the complete opposite of the usual convention. Stop being obtuse BW.

adrian
Guest

Like Bemused, it is a complete waste of time arguing with the Bore.

At least Bemused is a genuine Labor supporter and not a thinly veiled reactionary like BW.

Boerwar
Guest

E
‘You think Corbyn resigning would yield a new Blair but it won’t ,…’
I sincerely hope that we never see either a new Blair or the old one back.
My point is quite straightforward.
Corbyn got thrashed by May.
May is probably the worst campaigner that the Tories have put up for the past century.
If all Corbyn could do is lose by 60 seats by May, and all Labour can do is pop Corbyn back up for another run in five years time…
Masochism writ large.

Socrates
Guest

I agree with Nicholas on Corbyn. He raised Labor’s vote. A lot. In fact, it was the SDP clowns that cost Labor government, not Corbyn. They poor campaign and refusal to deal with Labor split the progressive vote in Scotland, with lots of seats going to the Cons on very small percentages. And who caused the split in Scotland? Blair and Brown.

The fact is, Jeremy Corbyn has been picking up the pieces and making Labor electable again. They were not before him. If an election were held tomorrow he would win.

bemused
Guest
c@tmomma @ #554 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 10:07 pm BW, Could you please devote some of your considerable expertise to analysing the political travails of leaders who are actually able to do real damage to their countries and the world. Like Trump. Or May. Or Putin. It would just be nice to appreciate your talents and your literary guns being turned on them for a change. I mean, don’t you think taking potshots at Sanders and Corbyn is a bit too much like shooting fish in a barrel? Your mistake is thinking the Bore has a shred of credibility.… Read more »
Elaugaufein
Guest
@BW What you’re failing to understand here is that no one you would approve of is going to win leadership of Labor in the real world. Corbyn’s factions now have the numbers in the parliamentary party to be able to nominate one of their own for leader and that person will go on to win the membership ballot because as Corbyn’s (repeated) election as leader proved they’ve got the numbers in the membership. You think Corbyn resigning would yield a new Blair but it won’t , the current reality is that it will yield a new Corbyn. If you think… Read more »
Simon Katich
Guest

Its dry July.

I made it to 21:30.

Elaugaufein
Guest

Just like LOTO Shorten and PM Turnbull ?
Loser and winner

(Actually that’s being unkind to Corbyn because Turnbull managed a 1 seat majority, while May required a Coalition.

And I don’t even dislike Bill Shorten personally. )

Boerwar
Guest

E
The only real world difference that Corbyn resigning would make is to give someone who might actually win an election take leadership of the Opposition.
Meanwhile the hopeless person that Corbyn managed to get thrashed by will be trashing the country.

Boerwar
Guest

BC
‘And Corbyn himself is about 20 points ahead of May on job performance.’
That would be LOTO Corbyn and PM May.
Loser and winner.

zoidlord
Guest

@BW

Don’t be an asshole to other, you like a bully calling someone a loser..

Elaugaufein
Guest

Boerwar
In “real world” news, it doesn’t matter a jot, from your point of view, if Corbyn resigns. Enough of the new Labor MPs are Corbynites that they would be able to easily get one of their own on the leadership ballot, who would then go onto win the ballot for the same reason Corbyn did, which means you’d replace Corbyn with someone pretty much identical.

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