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ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

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610 comments

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C@tmomma
Guest

“Kevin Rudd in a blue tie.”

😀

cud chewer
Guest

Well.. that was fun

David
Guest

I’m getting a little tired people using the excuse Julia Gillard Prime Ministership failed because she was a woman. Look at Anastacia Palaszczuk premier of Queensland who leads a Labor party united that is committed to her premiership.

The fact remains is
1) Gillard challenged a first term Prime Minster
2) She called a snap election like Theresa May when she had a honeymoon period and it backfired bringing her government into minority.

Malcolm Turnbull has done the same thing challenging Tony Abbott and these actions will always end in tears. Challenging a first term PM is going to lead to these inevitable consequences.
Their actions has also given ammunition for sections in the public accusing politicians of ‘being in it all for themselves’ and suggestions that there all ‘untrustworthy’ which has been a factor in the public turning off the major parties and parking their vote elsewhere.

Elaugaufein
Guest

Yeah, it’s certainly true there’s greater difference now than historically. The correlation between age and voting has intensified in both directions though which suggests it’s something more than that (you wouldn’t expect an increase in the conservativism of the older demographic just because young people are screwed). Though it’s possible the 2 things have independent causes.

Blanket Criticism
Guest

@Elaugaufein

Young people are leaning more to left lately than in previous decades because conservative economics has well and truly destroyed their future prospects.

Elaugaufein
Guest

AR
Man, I’d hate to be the staffer in covfefe duty. You’d be fired for doing your job correctly.

briefly
Guest

….for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by nine points. The tipping point, that is the age at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour, is now 47 – up from 34 at the start of the campaign…

briefly
Guest

Elaugaufein
Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:45 pm
Young people generally lean left vote wise, probably because they tend to be socially progressive and don’t have a big enough stake in the status quo to vote right to preserve what they’ve got. The thing is they don’t vote reliably while the older demographic that leans conservative do. The weird thing about this election in the UK which lacks compulsory voting, is that young people actually registered and turned out to vote in fairly high numbers.

this is fascinating…..

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

a r
Guest

confessions @ #599 Saturday, July 1st, 2017 – 11:52 pm

AR:

He’s probably saving the war card for closer to the 2020 election.

I like to think he was about to type “…Russia, just like when we defeated crooked Hillary and won the election together” and one of his staffers looked over his shoulder and had to wrestle his phone away from him before he could hit ‘Send’.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/06/30/reachtel-52-48-labor/comment-page-12/#comment-2604760

The all time high vote-share for a defeated party in UK elections is the 48.8% Labour polled at the 1951 election when the Attlee government was defeated. The Conservatives polled only 40.0% (But would have polled closer to Labour had 4 of their Ulster Unionist allies had received votes, instead of being elected uncontested). The Labour vote was disproportionately locked up in safe seats.

confessions
Guest

AR:

He’s probably saving the war card for closer to the 2020 election.

Elaugaufein
Guest

Young people generally lean left vote wise, probably because they tend to be socially progressive and don’t have a big enough stake in the status quo to vote right to preserve what they’ve got. The thing is they don’t vote reliably while the older demographic that leans conservative do. The weird thing about this election in the UK which lacks compulsory voting, is that young people actually registered and turned out to vote in fairly high numbers. I’d be interested to see if anyone’s tried to determine if it’s because Corbyn or because Brexit.

a r
Guest

Not that anyone noticed, with everything else that’s horribly wrong with Trump, but he started a thought some 16 hours ago:

The era of strategic patience with the North Korea regime has failed. That patience is over. We are working closely with….

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/880892632142143490

…and doesn’t seem like he’s ever going to bother finishing it.

briefly
Guest

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/30/britons-savings-at-record-low-as-household-incomes-drop-says-ons

This is also a significant factor in the revival of Labour’s vote …younger people, in work and paying their bills, moved to support Labour as their economic circumstances are squeezed.

Simon Katich
Guest

And here comes the double down…..
“Crazy Joe Scarborough and dumb as a rock Mika are not bad people, but their low rated show is dominated by their NBC bosses. Too bad!”

He cant help himself.

Simon Katich
Guest

Trumps is tweeting;
**Numerous states are refusing to give information to the very distinguished VOTER FRAUD PANEL. What are they trying to hide?**
Trump is trying to prove he would have won the popular vote if it wasnt for voter fraud and the Panel is asking States for all registered voters’ names, addresses, dates of birth, partial social security numbers, political party, a decade’s worth of voter history, information on felony convictions…
Would you blame the States for not giving such data to Trumps henchmen?

Delbert Hosemann, the Secretary of State of Mississippi, a republican, has said the panel can “go jump in the gulf of Mexico.”

cud chewer
Guest

Just a random thought here. While its generally not a good idea to do anything that generates CO2, there is one exception and that’s generating energy from gasification of the waste from landfills (not new garbage, but stuff that’s already been landfilled). The reason is that if we don’t reclaim and reuse landfill, it will generate more CO2 equivalent just sitting there.

I’ve been investigating landfill mining and reclamation technology. I do believe it will become economic to not only produce energy from landfill waste through gasification, but also reclaim metals and render the inorganic fraction into inert materials.

The process involves gasifying anything organic (paper, plastic, wood) – turning it into CO and H2 (syngas). From there you can build (basic industrial chemistry) anything, including transport fuel and plastics. Or you can burn the syngas to produce electricity.

Most likely you’d build a plant that produces electricity, then gradually increment the plant to produce other hydrocarbons (avgas, diesel etc).

Anyhow, this sort of plant has inherent energy storage and is dispatchable. So its a much more sensible choice than building a gas fired power station that burns new fossil gas. And you can incorporate renewable energy into the process and use solar and wind energy at times where there is excess production and electricity from these sources is cheap. It also pays to incorporate a solar farm into the design of the plant. Which means you have a plant that can produce more electricity at peak times and this is what makes it economic.

And, in future (as you run out of old landfill, which is going to take some time unless you go for GW levels) its a plant that’s capable of taking biomass and converting it to both electricity and liquid fuels. So, its not a stranded asset.

Just thinking.. 🙂

bemused
Guest

briefly @ #589 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:08 pm

Tom The First And Best
Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 11:00 pm
As the Brexit cliff draws near and the results for the economy become clearer to the population, the polls will continue to shift away from Brexit.

And power will go the party that most convincingly renounces Brexit.

Maybe Corbyn is just waiting for the full horror of Brexit to become apparent to enough of the electorate.
I base this on nothing more than supposition.

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